That's easy. USA first, then other rich countries, then ROW. Different countries will have different strategies for vaccinating different sectors of the population. Within the UK it's cabinet ministers & tory donors first, then healthcare workers, then old plebs, then young plebs.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:29 am
I'm wondering what kinds of plans and scenarios are being developed for the rollout. It would be a bit embarrassing if after a vaccine is developed there's a chaotic unpleasant scramble within and between countries to vaccinate people.
Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
Weren't we told that young plebs aren't getting vaccinated at all unless they are sick young plebs?jdc wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:20 pmThat's easy. USA first, then other rich countries, then ROW. Different countries will have different strategies for vaccinating different sectors of the population. Within the UK it's cabinet ministers & tory donors first, then healthcare workers, then old plebs, then young plebs.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:29 am
I'm wondering what kinds of plans and scenarios are being developed for the rollout. It would be a bit embarrassing if after a vaccine is developed there's a chaotic unpleasant scramble within and between countries to vaccinate people.
To defy the laws of tradition is a crusade only of the brave.
Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
Depends what you mean by "nearly" and "ready", I suppose. I'll assume 'within weeks' for the nearly part seeing as that's where we came in.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:29 amI think "we've got a vaccine nearly ready" is such a huge claim that I want to wait for pretty strong evidence before I believe it, and instinctively I mistrust marketing statements from Big Pharma.
They're already manufacturing vaccines but if you're using "ready" to mean "available to all" f.ck knows how long that'll take. No idea how far on they are with manufacturing the Oxford vaccine but they did say they were starting back in June: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52917118 Meanwhile, Novavax delayed the start of their phase 3 trial due to "delays in scaling up vaccine manufacturing".
Would emergency authorisation count, or would you be after full approval?
Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
I hadn't heard that. How young is young?discovolante wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:30 pmWeren't we told that young plebs aren't getting vaccinated at all unless they are sick young plebs?jdc wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:20 pmThat's easy. USA first, then other rich countries, then ROW. Different countries will have different strategies for vaccinating different sectors of the population. Within the UK it's cabinet ministers & tory donors first, then healthcare workers, then old plebs, then young plebs.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:29 am
I'm wondering what kinds of plans and scenarios are being developed for the rollout. It would be a bit embarrassing if after a vaccine is developed there's a chaotic unpleasant scramble within and between countries to vaccinate people.
I'm sure I'll be fine for a jab, mind. There's no way I count as young.
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
https://www.ft.com/content/d2e00128-788 ... e51355a751jdc wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:45 pmI hadn't heard that. How young is young?discovolante wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:30 pmWeren't we told that young plebs aren't getting vaccinated at all unless they are sick young plebs?jdc wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:20 pm
That's easy. USA first, then other rich countries, then ROW. Different countries will have different strategies for vaccinating different sectors of the population. Within the UK it's cabinet ministers & tory donors first, then healthcare workers, then old plebs, then young plebs.
I'm sure I'll be fine for a jab, mind. There's no way I count as young.
I suppose you might be over 50 by the time there's a vaccine.
To defy the laws of tradition is a crusade only of the brave.
Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
Thanks. They're not being as clear as I'd like there.
f.ck it, it'll probably be available in Boots for £30 a shot at some point anyway. Be weird if I could pop down there for my flu vaccine every year but not get a covid jab.
So no to under-18s, yes to over-50s, and no hint either way for 18-49.There’s going to be no vaccination of people under 18. It’s an adult-only vaccine, for people over 50, focusing on health workers and care home workers and the vulnerable.
Suggests it's care home workers and over-50s and that's it. Nothing on under-50s.The latest advice from the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation... health and social care workers would be a high priority... places older adults in care homes and care home workers at the top of its priority list and then all adults aged 50 to 80 next on the list, with older age groups first.
So forget the previous quote because they're actually not sure yet.The JCVI said there had not been a decision on who would be eligible for the vaccine.
So definitely ignore that quote. The govt don't seem to be sure they'll even take the JCVI's advice if and when they do make up their minds.The health department said it was looking at advice from the JCVI, adding that it wanted “as many people as possible to access a Covid-19 vaccine”
f.ck it, it'll probably be available in Boots for £30 a shot at some point anyway. Be weird if I could pop down there for my flu vaccine every year but not get a covid jab.
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
I hope you're right, jdc. About whatever it is. But something a bit better than No Vaccine For You, anyway.
To defy the laws of tradition is a crusade only of the brave.
Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
Wasn't there a risk raised about possible adverse effects of a vaccine; meaning that the risk/benefit ratio varies depending on the risk of serious/long term side effects if you do get Covid19discovolante wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:30 pmWeren't we told that young plebs aren't getting vaccinated at all unless they are sick young plebs?
So - by default, young people would be better off (in terms of risk) by not having the jab.
ETA - at least, until there is more awareness of adverse effects
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
Ah yes there was that too.Gfamily wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 11:45 pmWasn't there a risk raised about possible adverse effects of a vaccine; meaning that the risk/benefit ratio varies depending on the risk of serious/long term side effects if you do get Covid19discovolante wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:30 pmWeren't we told that young plebs aren't getting vaccinated at all unless they are sick young plebs?
So - by default, young people would be better off (in terms of risk) by not having the jab.
ETA - at least, until there is more awareness of adverse effects
On the plus side, if us young'uns did get the vaccine, we'd have to wait until last so if it did cause all sorts of problems we'd probably find out first.
Long covid seems to be affecting quite a high proportion of people though.
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
Well I'm not going to pretend to be on top of the ins and outs of vaccine approval, and I suspect this one might be a special case anyway. I reckon it's likely to be offered to vulnerable groups with less thorough testing than usual, and that's probably ok as there'll be loads of surveillance.jdc wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:44 pmDepends what you mean by "nearly" and "ready", I suppose. I'll assume 'within weeks' for the nearly part seeing as that's where we came in.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:29 amI think "we've got a vaccine nearly ready" is such a huge claim that I want to wait for pretty strong evidence before I believe it, and instinctively I mistrust marketing statements from Big Pharma.
They're already manufacturing vaccines but if you're using "ready" to mean "available to all" f.ck knows how long that'll take. No idea how far on they are with manufacturing the Oxford vaccine but they did say they were starting back in June: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52917118 Meanwhile, Novavax delayed the start of their phase 3 trial due to "delays in scaling up vaccine manufacturing".
Would emergency authorisation count, or would you be after full approval?
I think I'm really just thinking about when they start giving it to members of the public outwith the context of a trial, so yeah emergency authorisation is probably in - it's still some kind of endorsement from an independent regulator rather than PR BS.
And I'm not convinced that'll happen this year. I wouldn't bet big money on next year either, but that might be unreasonably pessimistic of me.
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.
Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
I never bet big money. I'd bet small money on spring though if we're talking emergency auth. Even the slightly more pessimistic quotes from non-pharma bods seem to suggest it's fairly likely we'll have some efficacy data this year.
I wondered how long we'd need to add on for approval and from one of the April articles: "Hill said the best case scenario would be for regulators to grant it “emergency use approval” - something that could be achieved within six weeks beyond the point at which data show whether it is effective."
So, this year (ish) for phase 3 trials to give us a bit of data and add six weeks on for emergency approval, so Spring 2021. Willing to bet 5p on this if you fancy a wager. Actually, spring doesn't start till 20th March. I'll have 10p on spring and 5p on winter. I've another 5p that says Boots have it on offer by August 2021.
Ooh, this gambling lark's dangerously moreish you know. I think I'd better quit it.
I wondered how long we'd need to add on for approval and from one of the April articles: "Hill said the best case scenario would be for regulators to grant it “emergency use approval” - something that could be achieved within six weeks beyond the point at which data show whether it is effective."
So, this year (ish) for phase 3 trials to give us a bit of data and add six weeks on for emergency approval, so Spring 2021. Willing to bet 5p on this if you fancy a wager. Actually, spring doesn't start till 20th March. I'll have 10p on spring and 5p on winter. I've another 5p that says Boots have it on offer by August 2021.
Ooh, this gambling lark's dangerously moreish you know. I think I'd better quit it.
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
That seems reasonable put like that. I'm just anticipating unexpected stumbling blocks to emerge.
I'll take your bet - either we get a vaccine, or I get some money. 2021 is looking up.
I'll take your bet - either we get a vaccine, or I get some money. 2021 is looking up.
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.
Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
Would the roll-out model be based on the annual flu vaccine programme? That seems an obvious starting point.
(Though I wouldn't put it past this government to f.ck it up via a Serco contract.)
(Though I wouldn't put it past this government to f.ck it up via a Serco contract.)
Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
Makes sense and it looks like this year's flu vaccine target may be the same as their prospective covid target. (One article said the normal flu jab take-up was 15m and this year they wanted to make it 30m. They've also quoted 30m for a covid vaccine.)
Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
Consolation betting - same thinking my dad used when he went to the bookies to put £200 on the UK voting for Brexit.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:47 amThat seems reasonable put like that. I'm just anticipating unexpected stumbling blocks to emerge.
I'll take your bet - either we get a vaccine, or I get some money. 2021 is looking up.
I think stumbling blocks have already been a factor in delaying the progress so far (not sure how unexpected they've been), in terms of things like Novavax having trouble scaling up or J&J/AZ pausing their trials. I suppose we could see more things cropping up but I'd have thought most of the opportunity for stumbling blocks would be past by now?
They've got through phase 1 and 2 trials, and are well on with phase 3 so various hurdles like problems finding enough recruits or not getting the hoped-for phase 1/2 results have already not cropped up. We've already been through some of the others (as above). What's left? Disappointing phase 3 results comes to mind (please no), or more of the adverse events that have briefly paused trials. After that isn't it mostly about passing regulatory checks? I don't know much about this element of vaccines, I'm usually reading about alleged problems with existing vaccines rather than the approval process for new jabs. Shame tomp isn't here, I bet he'd know.
Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
You wonder because you're not a paying guest for an event held by a company that employs the chair of the UK Vaccine task force:Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:29 amThanks for keeping track of these, jdc.
I think "we've got a vaccine nearly ready" is such a huge claim that I want to wait for pretty strong evidence before I believe it, and instinctively I mistrust marketing statements from Big Pharma.
I'm wondering what kinds of plans and scenarios are being developed for the rollout. It would be a bit embarrassing if after a vaccine is developed there's a chaotic unpleasant scramble within and between countries to vaccinate people.
https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/sta ... 1010971649
EXC: The chair of the UK's vaccine task force showed “official sensitive” government documents to a $200-a-head event for elite US venture capitalists last week
Kate Bingham, a Boris Johnson appointee, showed guests a list of products which the government is set to invest in 1/
Bingham spent 1hr with the “networking event” for women in private equity held by a Massachusetts firm
Her PowerPoint included a sensitive internal breakdown of vaccines.
Blue: "We haven’t necessarily signed contracts with all of them so far. But they’re all in our sights.” 2/
Bingham combines the role with her job as managing director of SV Health Investors, a private equity firm
Like Dido Harding, she is married to a Conservative MP: Treasury Minister Jesse Norman.
She also went to school with Rachel Johson
3/
In her talk she said she expects all over-50s to have vaccine available by Easter
But she also showed docs predicting up to 40% may never take it
There's “concern” over whether vaccines will “actually work". There isn't “any data” on whether it works for those with flu 4/
As a result officials are mulling a major “three-visits” programme that will see vulnerable given on flu vaccine and two for COVID next year
She also disclosed that the government will “literally dispatch roving teams on motorbikes” to deliver the vaccine to the vulnerable 5/
There is an important “debate” to be had, she added, about whether or not to vaccinate children.
As it stands, it is "highly unlikely" we'll have legislation to make vaccines mandatory and, therefore, improbable there will be herd immunity
6/
Sir Alistair Graham, a former chairman of the Committee on Standards in Public Life, said it was “seriously ill-advised” to give. “It must raise a question as to whether she is a suitable person to be chairing a task force like that,” he said. /7
@JonAshworth
said: “‘There are serious questions here as to why this information was shared at an international online conference where attendees paid for access. We are in a public health crisis and this information that ministers should be shared with the public.” 8/
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
I wonder if they can meet that demand. I got it after (vulnerable) Mrs Y got a date to come for one, she asked if I could have one too and they said yes.
Couple of weeks later I got my own appointment but soon after they cancelled that appointment as they had run out. A FB friend said he and his wife (older than us) couldn't seem to get it either.
Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
They certainly seem to have struggled, yes.
GPs in England left waiting up to a month for flu vaccine supplies
GPs forced to pay for own flu jabs due to ‘massive’ stock shortages
Major wholesaler says all its vaccination stock is taken for flu season
Meanwhile, according to https://www.which.co.uk/news/2020/10/fl ... d-to-know/, the government insists there are no shortages. Which? go on to say that:
GPs in England left waiting up to a month for flu vaccine supplies
GPs forced to pay for own flu jabs due to ‘massive’ stock shortages
Major wholesaler says all its vaccination stock is taken for flu season
Meanwhile, according to https://www.which.co.uk/news/2020/10/fl ... d-to-know/, the government insists there are no shortages. Which? go on to say that:
Boots has suspended bookings and walk-in appointments for flu shots for the under 65s. Lloyd’s, Well and Tesco pharmacies have all suspended online booking for the paid-for flu jab. When we checked, we were also unable to book an appointment on the Superdrug website. Meanwhile, some GP surgeries are reporting waiting times of up to a month. Flu vaccinations are being prioritised for those who need them most, so if you are in this group you should be able to access one. If you don’t fall into this category and are having trouble getting a vaccine, don’t panic – it should get easier to arrange one over the coming weeks.
Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
I'm taking part in the Phase 3 trials of the Novovax vaccine - testing for efficacy and if it can be combined with the flu jab. First dose last Monday, second in two weeks' time, then follow up tests in 3, 6 and 12 months. It's not going to be quick.
Oh, and absolutely no reaction so I think I got the saline placebo.
Oh, and absolutely no reaction so I think I got the saline placebo.
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
Scientists have found the strongest evidence yet that people who recover from Covid may mount a much faster and more effective defence against the infection if they encounter the virus again
So possibly not a total waste of time to develop a vaccine.
So possibly not a total waste of time to develop a vaccine.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
In relation to the mutated strain of SARS-CoV-2 recently found in mink in Denmark...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... be-worried
Some have suggested that we don't need to worry too much about implications for vaccine effectiveness as vaccines can be "tweaked" like influenza vaccines.
But surely new strains pose a major problem for the Oxford vaccine in particular? They are using a chimpanzee adenovirus vaccine vector to induce a recipient's own cells to produce SARS-CoV-2 spike proteins to generate an immune response. Sure you could tweak this to modify the exact nature of the SARS-CoV-2 spike proteins being produced - but my understanding was that the recipient could also generate an immune response to the specific adenovirus vector used to deliver the spike protein code.
So if you wanted to vaccinate a second time, against a slightly different spike protein, then you'd need to use a different adenovirus as the vector. Which surely puts you back to needing early safety testing? Particularly since the chosen adenovirus would need to be different enough to the original to evade the immune response.
Obviously not a problem for other vaccine technologies - but this Oxford vaccine doesn't sound like it's something that can be easily tweaked.
Or maybe recipient immunity against the vector is not such a big deal for non-replicating viral vectors? And only a real problem for replicating vectors? Anyone know?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... be-worried
Some have suggested that we don't need to worry too much about implications for vaccine effectiveness as vaccines can be "tweaked" like influenza vaccines.
But surely new strains pose a major problem for the Oxford vaccine in particular? They are using a chimpanzee adenovirus vaccine vector to induce a recipient's own cells to produce SARS-CoV-2 spike proteins to generate an immune response. Sure you could tweak this to modify the exact nature of the SARS-CoV-2 spike proteins being produced - but my understanding was that the recipient could also generate an immune response to the specific adenovirus vector used to deliver the spike protein code.
So if you wanted to vaccinate a second time, against a slightly different spike protein, then you'd need to use a different adenovirus as the vector. Which surely puts you back to needing early safety testing? Particularly since the chosen adenovirus would need to be different enough to the original to evade the immune response.
Obviously not a problem for other vaccine technologies - but this Oxford vaccine doesn't sound like it's something that can be easily tweaked.
Or maybe recipient immunity against the vector is not such a big deal for non-replicating viral vectors? And only a real problem for replicating vectors? Anyone know?
Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
I'm not sure of the answer, but it's a good question.
One point to note is that the spike protein is big - over 1000 amino acids - and your immune response will be spread around that surface. One or two amino acid changes won't abolish very much of that response if it's sufficiently diverse. Neutralising antibody epitopes around the ACE2 binding site are more critical, but these might be more functionally constrained for the virus, but it's something people will be watching closely.
(I'm not sure if the full spike is in the vaccine anyway. 1000 aa = 3000 bp of DNA, which is a lot to fit into a viral genome. )
One point to note is that the spike protein is big - over 1000 amino acids - and your immune response will be spread around that surface. One or two amino acid changes won't abolish very much of that response if it's sufficiently diverse. Neutralising antibody epitopes around the ACE2 binding site are more critical, but these might be more functionally constrained for the virus, but it's something people will be watching closely.
(I'm not sure if the full spike is in the vaccine anyway. 1000 aa = 3000 bp of DNA, which is a lot to fit into a viral genome. )
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
BBC News is reporting that Pfizer are claiming 90% efficacy for their version of an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine in preliminary results of third phase testing. Cautious good news. Safety testing data should be available in a couple of weeks.
It first was a rumour dismissed as a lie, but then came the evidence none could deny:
a double page spread in the Sunday Express — the Russians are running the DHSS!
a double page spread in the Sunday Express — the Russians are running the DHSS!
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
Here’s some info from the company: https://investors.pfizer.com/investor-n ... fault.aspxRich Scopie wrote: ↑Mon Nov 09, 2020 12:05 pmBBC News is reporting that Pfizer are claiming 90% efficacy for their version of an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine in preliminary results of third phase testing. Cautious good news. Safety testing data should be available in a couple of weeks.