Getting Brexit done

[Gfamily]

The Garden of England, 2021.

It would be unfair to describe it as looking like the biggest improvement programme in decades for Medway.

[plodder]

The draft agreement was apparently 800 pages long and covered a huge range of things including trade in goods, trade in services (including financial services), data protection (related to digital commerce), intellectual property, competition policy, mobility of key workers, energy (including nuclear), police cooperation, UK participation in EU programmes etc

How many of those 800 pages are covered by fish, road haulage and aviation safety? I'd be surprised if its more than 10%.

Full document here: https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/fi ... rt1_v2.pdf

12 pages, replaces circa 800.
[/quote]

Ok but bear in mind that the fudge contains things like “a proposed regulation to...” which presumably will have its own page count.

[Bird on a Fire]

That's right plodder, keep the faith. I do admire your optimism, though I'm afraid I don't share it.

AFAICT most of the potential for fudging is dependent on the UK meeting the EU halfway, and they're mostly not prepared to do that.

[malbui]

The Garden of England, 2021.

It would be unfair to describe it as looking like the biggest improvement programme in decades for Medway.

Fond as I am of the county of my birth, I do have to draw a distinction between on the one hand the attractive farmland and woods in the south and south-west of the county, and on the other hand everywhere north of say Aylesford and east of say Lenham.

[plodder]

That's right plodder, keep the faith. I do admire your optimism, though I'm afraid I don't share it.

AFAICT most of the potential for fudging is dependent on the UK meeting the EU halfway, and they're mostly not prepared to do that.

Feel free to engage with the substance of what i’m saying though. The fudge does appear to contain aspirations for future fudges, and I bet the UK helped cook it up.

[Little waster]

(And what the heck are Territorials???)

Part-time cheeses. They are only cheese at the weekend.




As an aside, I’ve always wanted my own personal cheeses. Reach out and touch Brie.

[Bird on a Fire]

That's right plodder, keep the faith. I do admire your optimism, though I'm afraid I don't share it.

AFAICT most of the potential for fudging is dependent on the UK meeting the EU halfway, and they're mostly not prepared to do that.

Feel free to engage with the substance of what i’m saying though. The fudge does appear to contain aspirations for future fudges, and I bet the UK helped cook it up.

Yeah I know, I went through the transport one remember. It sounds like the EU is willing to reciprocally fudge some areas, but there's no prospect of a smooth transition like there was at the beginning of this year. For instance, they'll grant truckers some more licences, but they'll still have to do extra paperwork and pay extra fees.

So yes, the document as published certainly contains scope for further compromises if the UK joins in, and comparing page count is probably a bit crude. But I don't see that there's any possibility for a set of fudges even close to equivalent to the current set of fudges. It's going to be a cliff edge with the corners sanded down.

[Bird on a Fire]

Strong possibility of no deal, says Johnson: now is the time for businesses to start preparing for no deal (tbh I think that was several months ago).

Specifically citing the EU's bothersome insistence on having a regulatory environment, legal oversight and the ability to punish rulebreakers. I don't see that changing any time soon.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-55266678

[plodder]

yeah, i’ve just done a mega shop at the supermarket, what with christmas, covid and brexit panics to come.

the point i’m making isn’t that it’s going well, it’s that it’s not a hard No Deal either.

[Bird on a Fire]

Nigel Farage goes into his pub and asks for a pint.

The barman draws it and throws it into his face.

"Why did you do that?" Nigel asks.

"You asked for a pint," the barman says. "But you didn't say how you wanted it delivered."

Farage replies: "Okay, I'll have a pint in a pint glass"

"No. You can't ask again," the barman says.

"Why not?" Farage asks.

"Democracy," the barman replies.

The New European has a bittersweet collection of Christmas cracker jokes about Brexit for all you remoaners.

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/brexit ... okes-67146

[Bird on a Fire]

yeah, i’ve just done a mega shop at the supermarket, what with christmas, covid and brexit panics to come.

the point i’m making isn’t that it’s going well, it’s that it’s not a hard No Deal either.

I think it's quite hard, to be honest. It's certainly harder than the Leave campaign promised, harder than the government promised, harder than most Brexiters wanted, harder than Remainers wanted, and I think it's fair to say it's harder than most people expected, at least until recently. There isn't any sort of a deal.

I'm not, speaking personally, that impressed or surprised that the EU's no-deal preparations include a few fudges. All the EU's borders have a few fudges. But those fudges are restricted to areas of the EU's interest, are on the EU's terms (some are even conditional on long-term commitment to a level playing field!!), and still represent a lot of extra friction in both directions.

They're also viewed as short-term stopgaps. If the UK doesn't prove itself more amenable to the EU's demands then it's still dependent on the EU wanting to continue with these fudges. With months rather than weeks of planning time, the EU might find other solutions that serve its purposes just as well but have the added bonus of shafting the UK.

They're not much of a foundation for a future relationship: it's more like the EU is still shagging its ex, but only because it hasn't found a better option yet. The UK is about to get dumped hard, and will probably become the geopolitical equivalent of an incel.

[plodder]

Sure, yes.

But it looks like we're still not going to get the muscular No Deal the ERG wanted.

For them the point of Brexit is to create a Northern Singapore and that might not be on the cards immediately. There are a few straws floating around and I think it's fine to clutch at them.

[dyqik]

Sure, yes.

But it looks like we're still not going to get the muscular No Deal the ERG wanted.

For them the point of Brexit is to create a Northern Singapore and that might not be on the cards immediately. There are a few straws floating around and I think it's fine to clutch at them.

Yes, I'm pretty sure they want the death penalty for chewing gum.

[Bird on a Fire]

Sure, yes.

But it looks like we're still not going to get the muscular No Deal the ERG wanted.

For them the point of Brexit is to create a Northern Singapore and that might not be on the cards immediately. There are a few straws floating around and I think it's fine to clutch at them.

Fair enough.

I've got no idea which way this is most likely to go. Leaving with no deal is going to mean a massive shitfest, which people with power are obviously going to try and blame on the EU being big meanies. The path from there to a deal, meaning agreeing to regulatory oversight, level playing field and legal repercussions, is going to involve somebody doing a volte face that will be tricky to disguise. Whereas scrapping regulators - many of which have already been defunded to the point of uselessness over the last 10 years, with a media narrative built against them - is the kind of doubling-down plucky underdog narrative the English love.

If the Tories announced they were going to scrap, say, Natural England, who'd actually stop them? A bunch of people would walk around London - probably not as many as walked against Brexit or against the Iraq war, but a fair few anyway. And then what? There's bipartisan agreement that the country needs more housing, strong support for more roads, ports will need to expand (ABP is working on Dibden Bay II already, for instance), etc etc. There's already a plan mooted to improve water quality by not measuring how bad it is.

I'm not trying to be gloomy, but after this year I am generally post-hope, and simply trying to be realistic.

[dyqik]

A full No Deal chaos might be the quickest route to a substantial deal that actually helps. In that the volte facer can say to the No Dealers "we tried that, and look what happened".

[Millennie Al]

I'm pretty sure the EU have got together a package that has a couple of giveaways for Johnson to squawk victory about, while preserving what's important to them.

But it no longer looks like Johnson will take this offer. Too scared of Farage & Co (or worse interpretations of why he is choosing to destroy the country).

I suspect that Boris intends there to be no deal. This is based on the principle that politicians are judged much more on the results of a policy rather than whether it was a good policy. If he gets a deal, and things go well (i.e. the economy mainy) he'll be a genius for getting the deal, if they go badly he'll be the bumbling incompetent he appears to be. If there's no deal and things go well, he'll be a genius for sticking to a position that so many people said was doomed, while if it goes badly he can blame the EU and say it's all their fault for not agreeing a deal.

Since he believes it's all going to be a disaster, he's going for the last option - blame it on the EU, which he can't pull off if he has made a deal.

[PeteB]

From someone that has campaigned for Brexit for years :

Brexit: on the edge of madness

The chilling thing about the EU’s targeted contingency measures proposed in a “communication” yesterday is how limited they are...

Basically, what this amounts to is a declaration of intent by the EU that, if Johnson chooses the path of “no deal”, then in all but a tiny number of areas the United Kingdom is to be left to stew in its own juice.

....We are, I’m afraid, on the edge of madness, with a madman on the bridge, and the media asleep at the helm. No good can come of this

[plodder]

Unsourced, scurrilous, untrustworthy and highly plausible gossip:

https://mobile.twitter.com/claireepsom/ ... 0220097538

[El Pollo Diablo]

We are f.cked doo doo doo doo doo doo
We are f.cked doo doo doo doo doo doo
We are f.cked doo doo doo doo doo doo
We are f.cked

[JQH]

We certainly are.

Stocked up with food so we won't immediately starve. Meds are more of a problem; can't stock up on them and I'm certainly not going to risk buying extras online.

[lpm]

"It's the most wonderful time of the year. There'll be much Brexit stockpiling and fears will be growing as Brexit draws near..."

This is, what, our fourth stocking up?

As always, it's not so much the shortages as the crowds of other people trying to get stuff they've run out of. I didn't go to a supermarket for 2 or 3 weeks during the first lockdown panic buying and that alone was worth the stockpile. I'm assuming zero trips to the shops during January, except maybe an attempt to find some fresh fruit and vegetables other than turnip. Go out chasing a rumour about a tomato for sale or something.

I'm nagging family members to get prescriptions up to date.

[Woodchopper]

Unsourced, scurrilous, untrustworthy and highly plausible gossip:

https://mobile.twitter.com/claireepsom/ ... 0220097538

If true that points to a catastrophic failure of British diplomacy.

One tabloid Brexiter take has been that lack of success in the negotiations has been due to Barnier and the UK should negotiate directly with member states' governments. (And to be fair that is what worked in the Johnson Varadkar summit). However, even a brief read beyond the Mail and Torygraph shows clearly that EU governments don't have a markedly different view compared to Barnier. He's doing what they instructed them to do.

For Johnson to adopt that strategy suggests that he's worked it out by reading his favourite British columnists and has completely ignored the FCO (let alone newspapers like the FT).

[jimbob]

David Schneider
@davidschneider
Actually I think you’ll find that it wasn’t that the Emperor in the story wasn’t wearing any clothes, he was wearing Australian-style clothes

[Martin Y]

If true that points to a catastrophic failure of British diplomacy.

I suppose that's what happens when you let a catastrophe, rather than a diplomat, do the talking.


Remember four long years ago when Boris realised his scheme to manoeuvre himself closer to power by becoming the Champion of the Plucky Losers had f.cked the country by accidentally winning? Yeah, well way back then I did what all the cool kids were doing and generated a meme. I'm not claiming it was especially original or insightful but it seems curiously to have become ever more apt:

Boris broke it.jpg (61.95 KiB) Viewed 3562 times

[Woodchopper]

Good if downbeat thread
https://twitter.com/sturdyalex/status/1 ... 46593?s=21