Well worth it. I predict from now on the English will get pissed in the pub then get a scotch egg instead of a kebab on the way home.
COVID-19
Re: COVID-19
- sTeamTraen
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Re: COVID-19
Anyone want to take a wild guess at what might happen to the red line over the next month? ![Shocked :shock:](./images/smilies/icon_eek.gif)
![Shocked :shock:](./images/smilies/icon_eek.gif)
Something something hammer something something nail
- shpalman
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Re: COVID-19
Deaths by date reported are going up, but deaths by date of death are remaining constant, as we were discussing on the previous page of this thread here earlier before.
That's weird but I suppose it means that there's catching up to do with registering the deaths from the whole of the past month or so. Maybe if KAJ has every day's "deaths by date of death" data archived we'd be able to see.
That's weird but I suppose it means that there's catching up to do with registering the deaths from the whole of the past month or so. Maybe if KAJ has every day's "deaths by date of death" data archived we'd be able to see.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
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Re: COVID-19
I've got the data back to 7 November. I have a work-in-progress R Markdown notebook which I run each day. Today's run produced this (inter alia):shpalman wrote: ↑Wed Dec 23, 2020 7:16 pmDeaths by date reported are going up, but deaths by date of death are remaining constant, as we were discussing on the previous page of this thread here earlier before.
That's weird but I suppose it means that there's catching up to do with registering the deaths from the whole of the past month or so. Maybe if KAJ has every day's "deaths by date of death" data archived we'd be able to see.
Code: Select all
getcData("cDeaths.rds", maxlag = 20, mincount = 20)$plot + scale_y_continuous(trans = "exp")
It's clear to me that the 'incomplete' dates extend far further than the 5 days so marked by coronavirus.data.gov.uk. I wouldn't rely on a date being substantially complete until 12 days after.
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Re: COVID-19
I've only been saving the cases count from Lincolnshire, which is always by date of test. (I may have missed a few days).
Of course we know that most cases have been reported after 4-5 days so each day's data has a quick fall-off at the end which you see gets filled in from the next few traces.
I was hoping to see a similar graph for the UK's deaths by date of death in which we'd see the whole curve of November-December moving upwards, or at least the post-peak decrease slowly becoming less of a decrease. Or at least comparing the last few days' worth of reports to see where all these more-than-average deaths which are being reported date from.
Of course we know that most cases have been reported after 4-5 days so each day's data has a quick fall-off at the end which you see gets filled in from the next few traces.
I was hoping to see a similar graph for the UK's deaths by date of death in which we'd see the whole curve of November-December moving upwards, or at least the post-peak decrease slowly becoming less of a decrease. Or at least comparing the last few days' worth of reports to see where all these more-than-average deaths which are being reported date from.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
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Re: COVID-19
Based on the previous 33 dates, zero-weighting the latest 5, and fitting quadratics (which really don't fit very well!) yesterday looked like a slow decline:shpalman wrote: ↑Wed Dec 23, 2020 7:16 pmDeaths by date reported are going up, but deaths by date of death are remaining constant, as we were discussing on the previous page of this thread here earlier before.
That's weird but I suppose it means that there's catching up to do with registering the deaths from the whole of the past month or so. Maybe if KAJ has every day's "deaths by date of death" data archived we'd be able to see.
Code: Select all
Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) 6.05090 0.01410 429.278 < 2e-16 ***
## poly(date, 2)1 -0.29870 0.09847 -3.033 0.00557 **
## poly(date, 2)2 0.01786 0.09544 0.187 0.85310
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Residual standard error: 0.06323 on 25 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared: 0.3692, Adjusted R-squared: 0.3188
Code: Select all
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 6.07828 0.01456 417.565 <2e-16 ***
poly(date, 2)1 -0.06750 0.10169 -0.664 0.513
poly(date, 2)2 0.16405 0.09856 1.664 0.109
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
Residual standard error: 0.0653 on 25 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.2093, Adjusted R-squared: 0.1461
F-statistic: 3.31 on 2 and 25 DF, p-value: 0.05307
Re: COVID-19
Lots of suppression of other infectious diseases as well. And not just the obvious respiratory diseases. Also even food poisoning.sTeamTraen wrote: ↑Tue Dec 22, 2020 10:57 pmI've done something similar with data from the Netherlands (the five-year average deaths are standardized to zero). In wave 2, most of the excess deaths are COVID-positive. In week 33 there was a heatwave which killed a few older people. But you can see that back in March-April a lot of people were very probably dying from COVID without getting a test.
Deaths in the 0-65 age range are very slightly below normal, although probably within fluctuation range. I guess this corresponds to some reduction from road traffic deaths and other accidents outside the home, offset by some COVID deaths in the upper third of that age range.
Untitled.png
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
Re: COVID-19
I'm not sure, but I think this may be what you wanted (ggplot really is nice, this is the code that produced that graph)shpalman wrote: ↑Wed Dec 23, 2020 8:02 pmI've only been saving the cases count from Lincolnshire, which is always by date of test. (I may have missed a few days).
Lincolnshire-case-development.png
Of course we know that most cases have been reported after 4-5 days so each day's data has a quick fall-off at the end which you see gets filled in from the next few traces.
I was hoping to see a similar graph for the UK's deaths by date of death in which we'd see the whole curve of November-December moving upwards, or at least the post-peak decrease slowly becoming less of a decrease. Or at least comparing the last few days' worth of reports to see where all these more-than-average deaths which are being reported date from.
Code: Select all
ggplot(data = cDeathsDF, aes(x = Published, y = DateDeaths, colour = as.factor(date))) + geom_line( )
- shpalman
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Re: COVID-19
Not sure, the curves look like they're the wrong way around.
What I want is deaths-per-day versus date-of-death for each data set reported on a different day.
What I want is deaths-per-day versus date-of-death for each data set reported on a different day.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
Re: COVID-19
It’s gone.lpm wrote: ↑Fri Apr 17, 2020 9:41 am... which is what Nightingales should have been used for?
- Build a non-Covid Nightingale for people recovering from normal illness and not yet well enough to go back to care homes, and do everything possible to test and keep it Covid-free
- Build a separate Covid Nightingale for recoverers - survivors discharged from ICU, spend a day or two in regular hospital wards, then moved to a specialist Nightingale for however many days it takes to be well enough to go home. Johnson was lucky, in that he could leave hospital promptly to recover in a second home in the country, waited on by servants, but many people need a couple of weeks in hospital or more
Much of this is the persistent NHS problem of how to care for elderly and frail people, not ill enough for a full hospital bed, not well enough to return to independent life at home or a care home. Covid is a multiplier of this - 85% of over-80s survive, but a fairly large proportion of these will be severely knocked back and in need of extended after-care. The headline death rate is only part of the problem - the additional care burden is far larger and if not addressed it will lead to premature deaths months later among patients not recovering their fitness/mobility.
https://mobile.twitter.com/TiceRichard/ ... 2773159936
- bob sterman
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Re: COVID-19
Maybe it has - but I wouldn't believe a word that guy Richard Tice says. He's the Brexit Party chair - known as "Farage's sidekick" and is one of these folk who thinks most cases are PCR false positives.plodder wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 2:34 pmIt’s gone.
https://mobile.twitter.com/TiceRichard/ ... 2773159936
Obviously well qualified to comment on such issues as a property investor.
His idea of a good public health information campaign is the Wetherspoon's newsletter...
https://mobile.twitter.com/TiceRichard/ ... 1141277697
Re: COVID-19
![Shocked :shock:](./images/smilies/icon_eek.gif)
oops. caveats apply etc
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Re: COVID-19
As far as I’m aware it was mothballed but can be stood up again really quickly. Plan was for it only to take patients that are already ventilated so I doubt they’d reopen it unless they run out of critical care space in London & SE.
- sTeamTraen
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Re: COVID-19
I think the point here is that the government's handling of this has been so incompetent that even a conspiracist tw.t like Tice can make hay and a lto of sensible people will be nodding along. Apart from one brief moment in that clip where he lets slips that the real point of his story is to show that there is no problem in London ("because they've taken the Nightingale down, so that proves it") and so everyone should get back in the pub immediately, it could equally well have been made by a principled opposition party to show that the whole idea of the Nightingales was flawed from day one because there are no doctors or nurses to staff them. For example, Tice has fooled the otherwise admirable Gary Neville into thinking it was about resources.bob sterman wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 2:46 pmMaybe it has - but I wouldn't believe a word that guy Richard Tice says. He's the Brexit Party chair - known as "Farage's sidekick" and is one of these folk who thinks most cases are PCR false positives.plodder wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 2:34 pmIt’s gone.
https://mobile.twitter.com/TiceRichard/ ... 2773159936
Indeed, the same question could have been asked back when the government was about to order 30,000 ventilators or however many it was; it turns out that you can't just get a bloke from Kwik-Fit, or even a regular nurse, to just stand by it and press button B when it goes "beep".
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- shpalman
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Re: COVID-19
It also turns out that you don't really need that many of that sort of ventilator and can help a lot more people with a much simpler CPAP-style thing.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
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- shpalman
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Re: COVID-19
Showing that yesterday was no fluke, we have 39036 new covids today.
The UK is increasing with a 10-11 day doubling time.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
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- shpalman
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Re: COVID-19
Northern Ireland haven't registered any cases today so there's a few hundred missing from that number and that would make it higher than yesterday's.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
Re: COVID-19
Looking at cases by specimen date over 28 days (+ 5 zero weighted) and fitting a quadratic (R-sq = 99%) I find:
Code: Select all
At 22/12 fit = 68505.1 with doubling time = 6.0 days. That time halving in 12.1 days
Code: Select all
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 9.72789 0.02128 457.153 < 2e-16 ***
poly(date, 2)1 2.28040 0.06522 34.965 < 2e-16 ***
poly(date, 2)2 1.10736 0.06194 17.879 2.42e-13 ***
dayMon 0.44647 0.02898 15.404 3.44e-12 ***
dayTue 0.34619 0.02903 11.924 2.89e-10 ***
dayWed 0.32844 0.02912 11.279 7.33e-10 ***
dayThu 0.24560 0.02925 8.395 8.13e-08 ***
dayFri 0.26261 0.02905 9.039 2.61e-08 ***
daySat -0.00646 0.02899 -0.223 0.826
---
Signif. codes:
0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
Residual standard error: 0.04096 on 19 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.9898, Adjusted R-squared: 0.9856
- discovolante
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Re: COVID-19
In % of tests terms aren't we roughly back where we were in about mid November?
To defy the laws of tradition is a crusade only of the brave.
- shpalman
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Re: COVID-19
Yes, and it's trending upwards since the whole week has been that high.discovolante wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 5:57 pmIn % of tests terms aren't we roughly back where we were in about mid November?
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
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- shpalman
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Re: COVID-19
The numbers over the next few days aren't going to make a whole lot of sense since there'll be days in which the different countries in the country of the UK won't report; only England will report every day but for sure it won't fit the usual weekday dependence.
There might be a bit of a shock as the backlog comes through, of the order of 4-5000 per day for each day of non-reporting.
For there to be an average of 60,000 in the specimen-date data we'd usually need similar numbers in the date-reported data 4-5 days later and since that's when the backlog will be coming through it might peak even higher than that. It seems ridiculous that we might be seeing 80,000 on one of the days next week but maybe we will.
There might be a bit of a shock as the backlog comes through, of the order of 4-5000 per day for each day of non-reporting.
For there to be an average of 60,000 in the specimen-date data we'd usually need similar numbers in the date-reported data 4-5 days later and since that's when the backlog will be coming through it might peak even higher than that. It seems ridiculous that we might be seeing 80,000 on one of the days next week but maybe we will.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
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- sTeamTraen
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Re: COVID-19
Yes, that was established quite quickly. Although to be fair, when you know nothing about a disease, the thing that you have experience of that it most closely resembles is your best starting point, and if the UK (or any other) government had said "We don't have any actual evidence that ventilators are what's needed" it would have all been "Heartless Tory scrooges want to kill your Nan".
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- sTeamTraen
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Re: COVID-19
Sweden reports on Tuesdays through Fridays, but they closed on Wednesday evening. So their next report will be on 29 December. I'm expecting that to show around 45,000 cases, in a country with a population of 10 million. At the moment they are on the same trajectory as the US, within 5 or 10%, for both cases and deaths. Even the UK isn't doing as badly on both.shpalman wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 8:12 pmFor there to be an average of 60,000 in the specimen-date data we'd usually need similar numbers in the date-reported data 4-5 days later and since that's when the backlog will be coming through it might peak even higher than that. It seems ridiculous that we might be seeing 80,000 on one of the days next week but maybe we will.
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- bob sterman
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Re: COVID-19
I suppose all those vets wanted their ventilators back?