Back to school
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Re: Back to school
https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... utumn-term
So despite having tobhave two press conferences this week about rapidly rising cases and extending restrictions, it looks like we are still ploughing on with the plan to use inaccurate lateral flow tests to replace isolation in secondary schools.
So despite having tobhave two press conferences this week about rapidly rising cases and extending restrictions, it looks like we are still ploughing on with the plan to use inaccurate lateral flow tests to replace isolation in secondary schools.
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Re: Back to school
I knew the lateral flow tests weren't good but is this for real?
Analysis of lateral flow test programme at University of Birmingham showed "SENSITIVITY 3% (not a typo)"...
https://twitter.com/deeksj/status/1340975390412685312
Surely this terrible performance must be mostly down to the self-swabbing? Even though they did a good enough job for the purposes of PCR.
Analysis of lateral flow test programme at University of Birmingham showed "SENSITIVITY 3% (not a typo)"...
https://twitter.com/deeksj/status/1340975390412685312
Surely this terrible performance must be mostly down to the self-swabbing? Even though they did a good enough job for the purposes of PCR.
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Re: Back to school
https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/sta ... 0095074308bob sterman wrote: ↑Wed Dec 23, 2020 6:46 pmI knew the lateral flow tests weren't good but is this for real?
Analysis of lateral flow test programme at University of Birmingham showed "SENSITIVITY 3% (not a typo)"...
https://twitter.com/deeksj/status/1340975390412685312
Surely this terrible performance must be mostly down to the self-swabbing? Even though they did a good enough job for the purposes of PCR.
The only missed samples were all very LOW PCR RNA - EXACTLY as expected.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: Back to school
Yes - the Ct value of PCR correlates with viral load in the specimen - but only correlates with viral load in the person when the specimen is collected properly.shpalman wrote: ↑Wed Dec 23, 2020 10:49 pmhttps://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/sta ... 0095074308
The only missed samples were all very LOW PCR RNA - EXACTLY as expected.
A positive specimen could have a high Ct value because it was collected using poor technique (these were self-swabbings) - if this is the case a high Ct value doesn't tell you much about the infectiousness of the person.
Most people seem to be describing samples with Ct values > 35 as low viral load and unlikely to be infectious. But in his tweet (Michael Mina) extended the definition of "high" Ct and therefore low viral load to Ct values of 29, 29, 31, 31, 33, and 34. Hardly justifiable when 31 is a typical media Ct value when you collect a load of samples...
https://www.eurosurveillance.org/conten ... 32.2001483
In that study the median Ct for severe cases (requiring intensive care admission and/or fatal) was 32.55!! The sort of value missed by the lateral flow test.
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Re: Back to school
The county council is now suggesting getting a postal test for healthy / asymptomatic secondary school age kids 4-7 days before they go back. So that’ll be interesting.
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Re: Back to school
Let’s hope there aren’t too many symptomatic people needing a postal test during that window, then!
It’s just going to be a worse version of September, when test & trace failed to see the issue with the return to school coughs and colds putting a strain on the system and it completely failed to cope. Except with the added bonus of there being a lot more covid around and a new mutant strain.
It’s just going to be a worse version of September, when test & trace failed to see the issue with the return to school coughs and colds putting a strain on the system and it completely failed to cope. Except with the added bonus of there being a lot more covid around and a new mutant strain.
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Re: Back to school
Nationwide that would be of the order of, what, 3 million children? With the UK currently doing about 400,000 tests per day? Out of a capacity of 700,000? With my reputation?JellyandJackson wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 9:50 amThe county council is now suggesting getting a postal test for healthy / asymptomatic secondary school age kids 4-7 days before they go back. So that’ll be interesting.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: Back to school
shpalman wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 4:49 pmNationwide that would be of the order of, what, 3 million children? With the UK currently doing about 400,000 tests per day? Out of a capacity of 700,000? With my reputation?JellyandJackson wrote: ↑Thu Dec 24, 2020 9:50 amThe county council is now suggesting getting a postal test for healthy / asymptomatic secondary school age kids 4-7 days before they go back. So that’ll be interesting.
Tbf you don’t have to actually do the tests. Yo just have to make everybody believe that you’ve done enough to make it safe. It’s a bit like all the other mitigations they’ve put in place to make schools safe.
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Re: Back to school
Since I was on the site anyway for the B.1.1.7 stuff, here's COVID-19 in children and the role of school settings in transmission - first update
The question is whether leaving schools open ruins your chances of having R<1 despite all the other NPIs.
Leaving the closure of schools as the last resort does not mean forcing schools to stay open or forcing children to go to them, though, does it?[*]There is a general consensus that the decision to close schools to control the COVID-19 pandemic should be used as a last resort. The negative physical, mental health and educational impact of proactive school closures on children, as well as the economic impact on society more broadly, would likely outweigh the benefits.
So not-younger children transmit covid just as much as adults.[*]In surveillance data, among childhood COVID-19 cases, children between 1-18 years of age have lower rates of hospitalisation, severe hospitalisation and death than do all other age groups.
[*]Children of all ages are susceptible to and can transmit SARS-CoV-2. Younger children appear to be less susceptible to infection, and when infected, less often lead to onward transmission than older children and adults.
Wait, what? Who actually thinks that school closures by themselves would be sufficient to prevent community transmission?[*]This report does not consider the epidemiology of COVID-19 in relation to new variants of SARS-CoV-2, for which robust evidence on the potential impact in school settings is not yet available, such as one recently observed in the United Kingdom.
[*]School closures can contribute to a reduction in SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but by themselves are insufficient to prevent community transmission of COVID-19 in the absence of other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as restrictions on mass gathering.
The question is whether leaving schools open ruins your chances of having R<1 despite all the other NPIs.
So not-younger children transmit covid just as much as adults. Covid in Italy for example really took off in October even though everyone would have gone back to work at the beginning of September, while schools and universities went back in mid-September i.e. two weeks before the start of October. Case rates in September were actually pretty stable.[*]The return to school of children around mid-August 2020 coincided with a general relaxation of other NPI measures in many countries and does not appear to have been a driving force in the upsurge in cases observed in many EU Member States from October 2020. Trends in case notification rates observed since August 2020 for children aged 16-18 years most closely resemble those of adults aged 19-39 years.
[*]Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 can occur within school settings and clusters have been reported in preschools, primary and secondary schools. Incidence of COVID-19 in school settings appear to be impacted by levels of community transmission. Where epidemiological investigation has occurred, transmission in schools has accounted for a minority of all COVID-19 cases in each country.
[*]Educational staff and adults within the school setting are generally not seen to be at a higher risk of infection than other occupations, although educational roles that put one in contact with older children and/or many adults may be associated with a higher risk.
[*]Non-pharmaceutical interventions in school settings in the form of physical distancing that prevent crowding as well as hygiene and safety measures are essential to preventing transmission. Measures must be adapted to the setting and age group and consider the need to prevent transmission as well as to provide children with an optimal learning and social environment.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: Back to school
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: Back to school
Unless you are in primary. Even in most tier 4 areas looks like they are going back on Monday.
Re: Back to school
Why don’t they link it to the tiers?
where once I used to scintillate
now I sin till ten past three
now I sin till ten past three
Re: Back to school
Probably because they are determined to press ahead with end-of-year exams until the moment it becomes impossible, and have refused to come up with a system to account for individuals' differing amounts of access to schooling. So making it national preserves the fiction of fairness.
Re: Back to school
I think this is it. And when some kids will be self isolating multiple times, it's really unfairSciolus wrote: ↑Wed Dec 30, 2020 5:57 pmProbably because they are determined to press ahead with end-of-year exams until the moment it becomes impossible, and have refused to come up with a system to account for individuals' differing amounts of access to schooling. So making it national preserves the fiction of fairness.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
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Re: Back to school
I think because they’ve shoved almost everywhere into tier 4. So if they closed all primaries in tier 4 it would be too many schools. They’re going with the worst hit areas in tier 4 for primary. Presumably with the least worst hit areas closing their schools in about 2 weeks when their cases are still rising.
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Re: Back to school
This rambling nonsense answer from the PM’s press conference probably explains a lot. Mostly that decisions are being made by idiots.The message is schools are safe. The problem is not the schools. Teachers, school authorities, parents they’ve made a fantastic effort to make schools safe places. The issue is the what happens, the spread from erm the mixing of households that naturally takes place in schools. That’s what we’re trying to combat in the very high infection rate areas. So my message would be unless your area is specifically among those very high rate areas, send your children, send your family to school in the normal way.
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Re: Back to school
Ours aren't physically back until the 18th as it stands, that may change as our figures up here are pretty shite. I'm having to homeschool boobshark from the 11thOffTheRock wrote: ↑Wed Dec 30, 2020 4:21 pmUnless you are in primary. Even in most tier 4 areas looks like they are going back on Monday.
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Re: Back to school
I think Wales have extended their holiday too.Ladysavage wrote: ↑Wed Dec 30, 2020 6:50 pmOurs aren't physically back until the 18th as it stands, that may change as our figures up here are pretty shite. I'm having to homeschool boobshark from the 11thOffTheRock wrote: ↑Wed Dec 30, 2020 4:21 pmUnless you are in primary. Even in most tier 4 areas looks like they are going back on Monday.
It looks like the areas where the primaries are shut are the first ones that went into tier 4. Except Greenwich, cos it’s a bit embarrassing if you have to try and sue a local authority to prevent them closing schools and then tell them to close their schools 2 weeks later.
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Re: Back to school
A Twitter exchange.
Re: Back to school
Are they? What is "worst hit"? Because it's not number of of infections or percentage increase over last week. Some boroughs in London seemingly worse hit are opening primaries than those which are staying closed.OffTheRock wrote: ↑Wed Dec 30, 2020 6:04 pmI think because they’ve shoved almost everywhere into tier 4. So if they closed all primaries in tier 4 it would be too many schools. They’re going with the worst hit areas in tier 4 for primary. Presumably with the least worst hit areas closing their schools in about 2 weeks when their cases are still rising.
What data are they using to make these decisions? Is it infections by age? Are they really that different enough in the circumstances to warrant this patchwork approach? It seems they are doing it to a) f.ck everyone off and b) have another u turn to make in a few days.
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Re: Back to school
Someone should sue the government for making irrational decisions.
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Re: Back to school
Yep. I’m going take that back and say I have no f.cking idea how they picked them. But it doesn’t look like they do either.badger wrote: ↑Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:48 pmAre they? What is "worst hit"? Because it's not number of of infections or percentage increase over last week. Some boroughs in London seemingly worse hit are opening primaries than those which are staying closed.OffTheRock wrote: ↑Wed Dec 30, 2020 6:04 pmI think because they’ve shoved almost everywhere into tier 4. So if they closed all primaries in tier 4 it would be too many schools. They’re going with the worst hit areas in tier 4 for primary. Presumably with the least worst hit areas closing their schools in about 2 weeks when their cases are still rising.
What data are they using to make these decisions? Is it infections by age? Are they really that different enough in the circumstances to warrant this patchwork approach? It seems they are doing it to a) f.ck everyone off and b) have another u turn to make in a few days.
They seem to have forgotten that middle schools exist and that there aren’t rigid catchment boundaries in England. Are schools supposed to stay open based on where they are located or where most of their pupils come from?
Re: Back to school
That last bit. My kids old secondary school feeds 6th forms in both Greater Manchester and Sheffield, for example. The year 1-13 education system is a nationwide network linking most parents and staff in a giant bubbleOffTheRock wrote: ↑Thu Dec 31, 2020 4:46 pmYep. I’m going take that back and say I have no f.cking idea how they picked them. But it doesn’t look like they do either.badger wrote: ↑Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:48 pmAre they? What is "worst hit"? Because it's not number of of infections or percentage increase over last week. Some boroughs in London seemingly worse hit are opening primaries than those which are staying closed.OffTheRock wrote: ↑Wed Dec 30, 2020 6:04 pmI think because they’ve shoved almost everywhere into tier 4. So if they closed all primaries in tier 4 it would be too many schools. They’re going with the worst hit areas in tier 4 for primary. Presumably with the least worst hit areas closing their schools in about 2 weeks when their cases are still rising.
What data are they using to make these decisions? Is it infections by age? Are they really that different enough in the circumstances to warrant this patchwork approach? It seems they are doing it to a) f.ck everyone off and b) have another u turn to make in a few days.
They seem to have forgotten that middle schools exist and that there aren’t rigid catchment boundaries in England. Are schools supposed to stay open based on where they are located or where most of their pupils come from?
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
Re: Back to school
I'm still more than half convinced that Johnson doesn't realise that State schools aren't boarding and the kids go home each evening.
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.
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Re: Back to school
It’s almost like he’s never had to take any responsibility for his own children.