Are they using other data than the case numbers? I agree that they seem to have levelled off. But then again we know that numbers of infected are much larger than the number of positive tests.lpm wrote: ↑Fri Jan 15, 2021 2:04 pmMy God, nearly a year on and Sage is still f.cking up their models. How can they possibly be this bad? Are they locked in a dark room only able to see their models and none of the other data?
We can all see that cases have basically peaked, with the start of the decline beginning in some places. Nowhere are cases still shooting up. R is clearly at around 0.8 or 0.9 or maybe 1.0 or perhaps 1.1 in some places.
What it obviously cannot be is 1.2 to 1.3.
Can anyone explain why these modellers are so bad?
The reproduction number, or R value, of coronavirus transmission in the UK is between 1.2 and 1.3, the Government Office for Science and the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) has said.
For example there appears to still be an upward trend in hospital admissions.