One case in each arm is beyond lacking in statistical power and reaches the territory of completely useless. If, by chance, there had been one fewer case in the treatment group, it would have made the figure be 100% effective, if by chance there had been one fewer case in the control group, it would have made the figure be infinitely harmful. Anyone who looked at those figures and told politicians or journalists that there was any meaning there at all is either hopelessly bad at statistics or grossly irresponsible.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Thu Jan 28, 2021 2:43 pmhttps://twitter.com/olivernmoody/status ... 0071860230
In the over 65s there was one infection in the treatment group and one infection in the control group. Which makes the vaccine look ineffective compared to doing nothing.
Looks more like the control group got lucky.
Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
The Novavax one works (says Novavax)
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
But not so well in South Africa:
Raising the concern that the SA variant is responsible (for reasons why see the new variant thread).In the South Africa Phase 2b clinical trial, 60% efficacy (95% CI: 19.9 – 80.1) for the prevention of mild, moderate and severe COVID-19 disease was observed in the 94% of the study population that was HIV-negative.
Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
Presumably given approval (which I know hasn’t happened yet) it should be possible to make a variation of the vaccine with the different spike protein. Is there any mileage in making a vaccine with several variation of the spike protein in the one dose?Woodchopper wrote: ↑Fri Jan 29, 2021 7:51 amBut not so well in South Africa:
Raising the concern that the SA variant is responsible (for reasons why see the new variant thread).In the South Africa Phase 2b clinical trial, 60% efficacy (95% CI: 19.9 – 80.1) for the prevention of mild, moderate and severe COVID-19 disease was observed in the 94% of the study population that was HIV-negative.
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
Wow, that's as bad as the Oxford/AstraZeneca one under the official SD/SD dosing regime.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Fri Jan 29, 2021 7:51 amBut not so well in South Africa:
In the South Africa Phase 2b clinical trial, 60% efficacy (95% CI: 19.9 – 80.1) for the prevention of mild, moderate and severe COVID-19 disease was observed in the 94% of the study population that was HIV-negative.
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
yes, it would be possible, and yes there is mileage in so doing. Moderna are already doing soGrumble wrote: ↑Fri Jan 29, 2021 10:01 amPresumably given approval (which I know hasn’t happened yet) it should be possible to make a variation of the vaccine with the different spike protein. Is there any mileage in making a vaccine with several variation of the spike protein in the one dose?Woodchopper wrote: ↑Fri Jan 29, 2021 7:51 amBut not so well in South Africa:
Raising the concern that the SA variant is responsible (for reasons why see the new variant thread).In the South Africa Phase 2b clinical trial, 60% efficacy (95% CI: 19.9 – 80.1) for the prevention of mild, moderate and severe COVID-19 disease was observed in the 94% of the study population that was HIV-negative.
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
Janssen, Johnson, and Johnson works too
Three names but one dose, decent efficacy of 72% in the US but only 66% globally.
Three names but one dose, decent efficacy of 72% in the US but only 66% globally.
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
I suspect a lot of the variation internationally is to do with variants. We’re obviously aware of the variants that crop up in the U.K. and other countries with a reasonable ability to sequence and analyse them, but how many other variants are out there that may get round the vaccines?shpalman wrote: ↑Fri Jan 29, 2021 1:12 pmJanssen, Johnson, and Johnson works too
Three names but one dose, decent efficacy of 72% in the US but only 66% globally.
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
The Janssen/Johnson&Johnson one is called Ad26.COV2.S and some interim results are at https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2034201
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
Everyone now seems to have a story the text of which quotes Germany's heath minister:
Jens Spahn said it wasn’t clear whether the decision by the European Medicines Agency would explicitly recommend against using the vaccine in people 65 and over, or whether it would merely note the lack of data for older people, meaning “no restrictions but caution in certain areas.” Germany will adjust its own guidance once it sees the EMA's decision.
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
Long-ish interview with Pascal Soriot in La Repubblica.
https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2021/01/26/news/interview_pascal_soriot_ceo_astrazeneca_coronavirus_covid_vaccines-284349628/
https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2021/01/26/news/interview_pascal_soriot_ceo_astrazeneca_coronavirus_covid_vaccines-284349628/
In six days the Lord made the heavens and the earth, the sea, and all that is in them. The human body was knocked up pretty late on the Friday afternoon, with a deadline looming. How well do you expect it to work?
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
There might be an effect of variants, but it's also important not to overestimate the precision of statistical methods. Natural systems, like humans and diseases, are inherently vary variable, and covid infections are a fairly rare event, so estimating infection frequencies in trials will always come with broad confidence intervals.Grumble wrote: ↑Fri Jan 29, 2021 1:27 pmI suspect a lot of the variation internationally is to do with variants. We’re obviously aware of the variants that crop up in the U.K. and other countries with a reasonable ability to sequence and analyse them, but how many other variants are out there that may get round the vaccines?shpalman wrote: ↑Fri Jan 29, 2021 1:12 pmJanssen, Johnson, and Johnson works too
Three names but one dose, decent efficacy of 72% in the US but only 66% globally.
I'd be surprised if the confidence intervals of the 72% and 66% estimates don't have considerable overlap, in which case there's no statistical support for the hypothesis that there's any difference in efficacy between the US and rest of the world. But AFAICT those numbers are from a company statement, rather than a published trial?
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Yes it's just a company statement reported in a newspaper; searching for Ad26.COV2.S I don't find anything published more recently than this:
... both of which only report Phase I/IIa.
or https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20199604v1shpalman wrote: ↑Fri Jan 29, 2021 1:30 pmThe Janssen/Johnson&Johnson one is called Ad26.COV2.S and some interim results are at https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2034201
... both of which only report Phase I/IIa.
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
It got full approval: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... -regulatorshpalman wrote: ↑Fri Jan 29, 2021 1:45 pmEveryone now seems to have a story the text of which quotes Germany's heath minister:
Jens Spahn said it wasn’t clear whether the decision by the European Medicines Agency would explicitly recommend against using the vaccine in people 65 and over, or whether it would merely note the lack of data for older people, meaning “no restrictions but caution in certain areas.” Germany will adjust its own guidance once it sees the EMA's decision.
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
AstraZeneca is no longer exploring the half-dose regime, says they are "very confident" with the dosing regimen they have.
Well, yes. Hopefully.He says hopefully when the data is published that will become apparent.
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
Hopefully they will publish the data.shpalman wrote: ↑Fri Jan 29, 2021 6:39 pmAstraZeneca is no longer exploring the half-dose regime, says they are "very confident" with the dosing regimen they have.
Well, yes. Hopefully.He says hopefully when the data is published that will become apparent.
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
Roberto Burioni* put this on facebook:
* - https://www.medicalfacts.it/en/
* - https://www.medicalfacts.it/en/
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
In Italy the AstraZeneca vaccine is, for now at least, only approved for ages 18—55.
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
some efficacy data from I don't know where
(SA efficacy for the Novavax may include HIV-positive subjects.)
(SA efficacy for the Novavax may include HIV-positive subjects.)
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
Sputnik V vaccine has 91.6% efficacy against symptomatic Covid
Safety and efficacy of an rAd26 and rAd5 vector-based heterologous prime-boost COVID-19 vaccine: an interim analysis of a randomised controlled phase 3 trial in Russia
Safety and efficacy of an rAd26 and rAd5 vector-based heterologous prime-boost COVID-19 vaccine: an interim analysis of a randomised controlled phase 3 trial in Russia
Between Sept 7 and Nov 24, 2020, 21 977 adults were randomly assigned to the vaccine group (n=16 501) or the placebo group (n=5476). 19 866 received two doses of vaccine or placebo and were included in the primary outcome analysis. From 21 days after the first dose of vaccine (the day of dose 2), 16 (0·1%) of 14 964 participants in the vaccine group and 62 (1·3%) of 4902 in the placebo group were confirmed to have COVID-19; vaccine efficacy was 91·6% (95% CI 85·6–95·2). Most reported adverse events were grade 1 (7485 [94·0%] of 7966 total events). 45 (0·3%) of 16 427 participants in the vaccine group and 23 (0·4%) of 5435 participants in the placebo group had serious adverse events; none were considered associated with vaccination, with confirmation from the independent data monitoring committee. Four deaths were reported during the study (three [<0·1%] of 16 427 participants in the vaccine group and one [<0·1%] of 5435 participants in the placebo group), none of which were considered related to the vaccine.
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
Efficacy data table from their paper:
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
Oxford University analysis of Oxford-AZ:
(1) 1st dose gives "sustained protection" of 76% during the 3-month interval until the second dose. Does not fall under the UK approach during the 21 day to 12 week extension.
"Data supports the 4-12 week prime-boost dosing interval recommended by many global regulators".
(2) Vaccine stops transmission. "Analyses of PCR positive swabs in UK population suggests vaccine may have substantial effect on transmission of the virus with 67% reduction in positive swabs among those vaccinated".
Pretty great news x2.
(1) 1st dose gives "sustained protection" of 76% during the 3-month interval until the second dose. Does not fall under the UK approach during the 21 day to 12 week extension.
"Data supports the 4-12 week prime-boost dosing interval recommended by many global regulators".
(2) Vaccine stops transmission. "Analyses of PCR positive swabs in UK population suggests vaccine may have substantial effect on transmission of the virus with 67% reduction in positive swabs among those vaccinated".
Pretty great news x2.
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
Would it be too much to post a link to that?lpm wrote: ↑Tue Feb 02, 2021 5:36 pmOxford University analysis of Oxford-AZ:
(1) 1st dose gives "sustained protection" of 76% during the 3-month interval until the second dose. Does not fall under the UK approach during the 21 day to 12 week extension.
"Data supports the 4-12 week prime-boost dosing interval recommended by many global regulators".
(2) Vaccine stops transmission. "Analyses of PCR positive swabs in UK population suggests vaccine may have substantial effect on transmission of the virus with 67% reduction in positive swabs among those vaccinated".
Pretty great news x2.
Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
I need to celebrate this by being extra nice.
https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-02-02-ox ... h-interval
https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-02-02-ox ... h-interval
Last edited by lpm on Tue Feb 02, 2021 5:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Developing the Covid-19 vaccine
See, the thing is, there's quite a lot of news nowadays. It would help to post a link so I don't have a trawls through news sites to find the paragraphs you've selectively posted from wherever the f.ck it is you found it.
Just post links FFS.
Just post links FFS.