cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown
- shpalman
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Re: cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown
I don't know what kind of new lockdown rules come in to force in Italy on the 21st, but the 24th-27th will be Red rules, 28th-30th will be Orange, 31st-3rd will be Red again, 4th will be Orange, and 5th-6th will be Red.
The rules are mainly about whether you can leave your own comune or not except for urgent reasons (with people who live in small towns of fewer than 5000 able to travel up to 30 km as long as they stay out of the cities, so they can always get to a shop) as well as whether households can mix.
The idea is basically that everyone gets to where they're going to be now and stays the f.ck there. But as you can imagine, tickets to the south for all the people who work or study up here but are from there have gotten rather scarce and expensive this weekend.
There are regions in which cases are going up again, whereas in most of the country they've just stopped going down.
The rules are mainly about whether you can leave your own comune or not except for urgent reasons (with people who live in small towns of fewer than 5000 able to travel up to 30 km as long as they stay out of the cities, so they can always get to a shop) as well as whether households can mix.
The idea is basically that everyone gets to where they're going to be now and stays the f.ck there. But as you can imagine, tickets to the south for all the people who work or study up here but are from there have gotten rather scarce and expensive this weekend.
There are regions in which cases are going up again, whereas in most of the country they've just stopped going down.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown
UK mean daily cases for the last 7 days are 24,054. That's about 7% higher than the week leading up to the 5 November lockdown. There are 5 more days of slow growth to go, and then 5 days of hugging your Nan.
I'm going to predict a full lockdown on 28 December, despite which there will be 50,000 cases per day in the first 7 days of 2021, and 1,000 deaths per day in the next 7, with 40,000 deaths in the first two months of the year. Anyone want to bet on lower numbers?
I'm going to predict a full lockdown on 28 December, despite which there will be 50,000 cases per day in the first 7 days of 2021, and 1,000 deaths per day in the next 7, with 40,000 deaths in the first two months of the year. Anyone want to bet on lower numbers?
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Re: cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown
In Northern Ireland, hospitals hit 105% of capacity with patents having to be treated in ambulances:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... land-wales
And the figures are still going up.
And no effective action is being taken to change things.
This is not a recipe for success.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... land-wales
And the figures are still going up.
And no effective action is being taken to change things.
This is not a recipe for success.
Re: cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown
Yes, I'll bet. Cases will be up there but the vaccine will knock the death toll down a lot, even in late January. By March the death rate could be down to half what we'd expect from case numbers.sTeamTraen wrote: ↑Fri Dec 18, 2020 9:34 pmUK mean daily cases for the last 7 days are 24,054. That's about 7% higher than the week leading up to the 5 November lockdown. There are 5 more days of slow growth to go, and then 5 days of hugging your Nan.
I'm going to predict a full lockdown on 28 December, despite which there will be 50,000 cases per day in the first 7 days of 2021, and 1,000 deaths per day in the next 7, with 40,000 deaths in the first two months of the year. Anyone want to bet on lower numbers?
Assuming the rollout happens with the organisational efficiency we should expect from any UK government.
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Re: cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown
35,928 cases and 326 new deaths reported today. Sunday case numbers are usually close to the 7-day average, but deaths are typically only half. So even before the effects of yesterday's re-enactment of Escape From New York are felt, there will probably be 2,500 new deaths and 200,000 new cases reported before Christmas Day.
I cannot being to imagine what it must be like to be working in the NHS right now.
I cannot being to imagine what it must be like to be working in the NHS right now.
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- shpalman
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Re: cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown
Doubling time is 11-12 days. This might shorten to about 7 days.sTeamTraen wrote: ↑Sun Dec 20, 2020 4:56 pm35,928 cases and 326 new deaths reported today. Sunday case numbers are usually close to the 7-day average, but deaths are typically only half. So even before the effects of yesterday's re-enactment of Escape From New York are felt, there will probably be 2,500 new deaths and 200,000 new cases reported before Christmas Day.
I cannot being to imagine what it must be like to be working in the NHS right now.
Italy's new cases and deaths meanwhile have maybe stopped decreasing (15104 today with 352 deaths) but numbers in hospital are still going down; the national figures are being spoilt by Veneto though which somehow didn't control its second wave.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown
Ireland has just moved to Level 5 (the highest): https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1230/11869 ... t-meeting/
Re: cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown
Gosh, remember the grand old days of just befor Christmas when we predicted such numbers? Looks like 2021 has come early cos I'm looking at nearly 1000 deaths and 50000 new cases today. What larks!sTeamTraen wrote: ↑Fri Dec 18, 2020 9:34 pmUK mean daily cases for the last 7 days are 24,054. That's about 7% higher than the week leading up to the 5 November lockdown. There are 5 more days of slow growth to go, and then 5 days of hugging your Nan.
I'm going to predict a full lockdown on 28 December, despite which there will be 50,000 cases per day in the first 7 days of 2021, and 1,000 deaths per day in the next 7, with 40,000 deaths in the first two months of the year. Anyone want to bet on lower numbers?
Edit: and oh look, no new lockdown.
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Re: cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown
Reading that, I can remember some of my thought processes when writing it. I wanted to write a bigger number than 40,000 for the deaths, but it felt too awful. I'm having a moment of clarity this morning, so I'm going to say that I think the UK will be lucky to get away with 40,000 deaths just in January.nezumi wrote: ↑Thu Dec 31, 2020 4:21 pmGosh, remember the grand old days of just befor Christmas when we predicted such numbers? Looks like 2021 has come early cos I'm looking at nearly 1000 deaths and 50000 new cases today. What larks!sTeamTraen wrote: ↑Fri Dec 18, 2020 9:34 pmUK mean daily cases for the last 7 days are 24,054. That's about 7% higher than the week leading up to the 5 November lockdown. There are 5 more days of slow growth to go, and then 5 days of hugging your Nan.
I'm going to predict a full lockdown on 28 December, despite which there will be 50,000 cases per day in the first 7 days of 2021, and 1,000 deaths per day in the next 7, with 40,000 deaths in the first two months of the year. Anyone want to bet on lower numbers?
Edit: and oh look, no new lockdown.
Even worse, there will be many more excess deaths, not due to "undiagnosed COVID" (as in March-April 2020) this time but because people will be dying of "things that they don't normally die of" due to hospital overflow --- untreated strokes, heart attacks, peritonitis.
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Re: cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown
A 163% rise in losses does that mean a negative number are now employed? And is that now less negative or more negative due to the "rise"?
29,684 is nearly 30,000 apparently.
29,684 is nearly 30,000 apparently.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown
SCOTS IN LOCKDOWN
To defy the laws of tradition is a crusade only of the brave.
Re: cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown
Makes sense to me.shpalman wrote: ↑Mon Jan 04, 2021 1:00 pmA 163% rise in losses does that mean a negative number are now employed? And is that now less negative or more negative due to the "rise"?
29,684 is nearly 30,000 apparently.
If X jobs were lost in 2019, and 2.63 times as many lost in 2020, that's an increase of 163% .
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!
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Re: cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown
Oh I'm not saying I couldn't figure it out, I'm complaining about the weird way journalists write stuff.Gfamily wrote: ↑Mon Jan 04, 2021 3:32 pmMakes sense to me.shpalman wrote: ↑Mon Jan 04, 2021 1:00 pmA 163% rise in losses does that mean a negative number are now employed? And is that now less negative or more negative due to the "rise"?
29,684 is nearly 30,000 apparently.
If X jobs were lost in 2019, and 2.63 times as many lost in 2020, that's an increase of 163% .
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown
Everything has to expressed as a percentage even if to do so is mathematically meaningless, because the public believe that they understand percentages, although they will cheerily admit to total innumeracy if asked any question involving three terms, or two if they have different numbers of decimal places.
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Re: cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown
The main road into town has been seized up with traffic all day; (the motorway was seized up this morning too apparently).
Because it's a nice day and every f.cker is like IT'S a nicE DaY LeT'S do SOmEthiNG and that something is the same something that every other f.cker decided to do. Bet the ones who made it in to town are complaining that the parking is full (there's an app for that so they ought to know to park at the big useless out-of-town multistory and if I can walk to town from where I live they can f.cking walk in from there, they're only going to walk around in town anyway, so don't f.cking complain about having to walk to town) and if they park maybe they'll comment without selfawareness about how many people there are walking in town, while the people still stuck in traffic will be complaining without selfawareness about how much traffic there is.
I watched Infinity War and Engame recently (wanted context for WandaVision) and I can increasingly see where Thanos was coming from.
Because it's a nice day and every f.cker is like IT'S a nicE DaY LeT'S do SOmEthiNG and that something is the same something that every other f.cker decided to do. Bet the ones who made it in to town are complaining that the parking is full (there's an app for that so they ought to know to park at the big useless out-of-town multistory and if I can walk to town from where I live they can f.cking walk in from there, they're only going to walk around in town anyway, so don't f.cking complain about having to walk to town) and if they park maybe they'll comment without selfawareness about how many people there are walking in town, while the people still stuck in traffic will be complaining without selfawareness about how much traffic there is.
I watched Infinity War and Engame recently (wanted context for WandaVision) and I can increasingly see where Thanos was coming from.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown
https://www.laprovinciadicomo.it/storie ... 386433_11/
And they dealt with the problem of parking by leaving their cars wherever the f.ck they felt like!
https://www.quicomo.it/cronaca/como-par ... multe.html
Looking forward to going back to Orange rules.
And they dealt with the problem of parking by leaving their cars wherever the f.ck they felt like!
https://www.quicomo.it/cronaca/como-par ... multe.html
Looking forward to going back to Orange rules.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown
The usual low-angle slightly zoomed shot to make the people look closer together
(Someone in the government, an advisor to the health minister, is calling for a short but total lockdown.)
(Someone in the government, an advisor to the health minister, is calling for a short but total lockdown.)
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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- shpalman
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Re: cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown
shpalman wrote: ↑Sun Feb 14, 2021 2:47 pmThe main road into town has been seized up with traffic all day; (the motorway was seized up this morning too apparently).
Because it's a nice day and every f.cker is like IT'S a nicE DaY LeT'S do SOmEthiNG and that something is the same something that every other f.cker decided to do. Bet the ones who made it in to town are complaining that the parking is full (there's an app for that so they ought to know to park at the big useless out-of-town multistory and if I can walk to town from where I live they can f.cking walk in from there, they're only going to walk around in town anyway, so don't f.cking complain about having to walk to town) and if they park maybe they'll comment without selfawareness about how many people there are walking in town, while the people still stuck in traffic will be complaining without selfawareness about how much traffic there is.
I watched Infinity War and Engame recently (wanted context for WandaVision) and I can increasingly see where Thanos was coming from.
https://www.ciaocomo.it/2021/02/14/gran ... os/208869/
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown
Run Eat out to help out again. Seems like a reasonable idea. It's not like it caused any problems last time.
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Re: cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown
It should be ok if it only covers eating outdoors (i.e. anywhere that smoking would be permitted).OffTheRock wrote: ↑Sun Feb 14, 2021 11:20 pmRun Eat out to help out again. Seems like a reasonable idea. It's not like it caused any problems last time.
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Re: cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: cOvId_19 the reunrelockdown
I watched the video to get the full bellend experience. Christ they're tedious.