Vaccine rollout in the UK

Discussions about serious topics, for serious people
Post Reply
User avatar
JQH
After Pie
Posts: 2141
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 3:30 pm
Location: Sar Flandan

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by JQH » Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:05 am

Sciolus wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 9:54 am
I would make two points here. First, a key reason the first lockdown was successful was the sense of "we're all in this together". Cummingsing that mood is decidedly unhelpful. Second, while old people have sacrificed a lot over the last year, by, y'know, dying and all that, so have young people, and young people have done so because it's The Right Thing To Do and entirely unselfishly. If old people start saying, we're immune now so we don't have to follow the rules, then young people are perfectly entitled to say f.ck you, we've been immune for the last year and we shouldn't have to follow the rules either. Which would be unhelpful.

So yeah, I'm in the "fuckwits" camp, for anyone who breaks the rules because they've had the vaccine.
"Selfish fuckwits" to be precise. Speaking as a partially vaccinated old git who intends continuing adhering to the rules.
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.

Fintan O'Toole

User avatar
JQH
After Pie
Posts: 2141
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 3:30 pm
Location: Sar Flandan

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by JQH » Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:07 am

headshot wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 10:08 pm
Well, on behalf of my 75 year old dad who’s followed the rules very closely, and my asthmatic wife, who’s just been kicked out of Group 6 of vaccinations, I’ll continue to be judgmental towards people who decide to ignore or break the rules and potentially prolong this entire process for those people being more careful - and suffering the same isolation.
It seems that a number of asthmatics are being wrongly refused the vaccine.
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.

Fintan O'Toole

User avatar
lpm
Junior Mod
Posts: 5944
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:05 pm

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:40 am

Well, not refused the vaccine, but kept waiting 2 or 3 months too long for the vaccine.

But anecdotally the problem is the other way - poor take up by Group 6. All other groups have had 80% running out the house to get the first possible appointment, then steadily ticking up to 90% or 95%. Group 6 (16-65 at risk) are not responding promptly to invitations, leaving spaces that GPs are filling with Group 7 (60-65).

There's a lot of focus on vaccine refusers - but it's not many weeks until the pressing problem will be vaccine can't be bothereds. People without objections but no desire either. Millions of doses ready and waiting to go into arms, but 18-50 year olds not responding to invites. It hits suddenly - everyone can infill capacity to 100% with eager 18-30 year olds, then overnight you discover you only have can't be bothereds remaining.
⭐ Awarded gold star 4 November 2021

User avatar
Bird on a Fire
Princess POW
Posts: 10137
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:05 pm
Location: Portugal

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:51 am

Several of the old folks where my mum works (sheltered housing) have basically said they know they've got little time left and aren't keen to spend it trapped on their own at home. They'd rather risk dying. It's been way too long for people who don't even text and live alone. As Fishnut alludes to, social isolation is a known cause of cognitive decline in the elderly.

If some vaccinated people want to meet up for a cup of tea it doesn't seem enormously "f.ckwitted" to me. The whole point of vaccinating people is to resume some semblance of normality.

Maybe I just think "f.ckwit" isn't always the best term for people making emotional responses to a crisis.
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.

tom p
After Pie
Posts: 1876
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:14 pm
Location: the low countries

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by tom p » Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:58 am

Herainestold wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 3:06 pm
tom p wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 12:28 pm
Thanks. So Pfizer aren't relaxing anything unilaterally, they are requesting permission from the appropriate regulators to so do.
That's ok then - I trust the FDA to make a sensible decision, and I'm not surprised that Pfizer/BioNTech are only just getting more information on long term stability at different temperatures
So you trust the FDA?
I am suspicious of anything coming out of America.
In this specific case, yes.
If this were some line extension for a drug to be given chronically, e.g. increasing the indication of an antidepressant from severe depression only to severe or moderate depression, then I'd be wary and would implicitly assume it was based on pretty skinny, but very over-sold evidence and would want to see the studies that had justified this for myself.
But in this instance, there is very little benefit for Pfizer in changing how cold the supply chain has to be - that's a fraction of their costs - and we actually would expect to get significantly better evidence by now than we had a few months ago.

User avatar
shpalman
Princess POW
Posts: 8241
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond
Contact:

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by shpalman » Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:59 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:51 am
Several of the old folks where my mum works (sheltered housing) have basically said they know they've got little time left and aren't keen to spend it trapped on their own at home. They'd rather risk dying. It's been way too long for people who don't even text and live alone. As Fishnut alludes to, social isolation is a known cause of cognitive decline in the elderly.

If some vaccinated people want to meet up for a cup of tea it doesn't seem enormously "f.ckwitted" to me. The whole point of vaccinating people is to resume some semblance of normality.

Maybe I just think "f.ckwit" isn't always the best term for people making emotional responses to a crisis.
All they have to do is wait a couple of weeks for the vaccine to actually start working.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk

User avatar
Sciolus
Dorkwood
Posts: 1313
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:42 pm

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Sciolus » Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:02 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:51 am
Several of the old folks where my mum works (sheltered housing) have basically said they know they've got little time left and aren't keen to spend it trapped on their own at home. They'd rather risk dying. It's been way too long for people who don't even text and live alone. As Fishnut alludes to, social isolation is a known cause of cognitive decline in the elderly.
Social isolation is also a cause of cognitive impairment in children and young people, which will affect them for the rest of their lives. They've had to suck it up, despite having better protection from covid than old people who've had jabs, and be called worse than fuckwits if they don't.

User avatar
Bird on a Fire
Princess POW
Posts: 10137
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:05 pm
Location: Portugal

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:43 am

Sciolus wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:02 am
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:51 am
Several of the old folks where my mum works (sheltered housing) have basically said they know they've got little time left and aren't keen to spend it trapped on their own at home. They'd rather risk dying. It's been way too long for people who don't even text and live alone. As Fishnut alludes to, social isolation is a known cause of cognitive decline in the elderly.
Social isolation is also a cause of cognitive impairment in children and young people, which will affect them for the rest of their lives. They've had to suck it up, despite having better protection from covid than old people who've had jabs, and be called worse than fuckwits if they don't.
Well, I don't think there's many children living alone, and they do spend all day interacting with each other via screens, but I do know it's hard for everyone of course.

I've seen young people called fuckwits for going to parties and stuff, not for meeting occasionally one on one. I'm assuming these were people meeting for a cuppa and a chat, not going to raves.
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.

User avatar
Bird on a Fire
Princess POW
Posts: 10137
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:05 pm
Location: Portugal

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:45 am

Also young people are protected from symptoms but not transmission, so the effects of partying then going to school/work/home are more severe than a couple of widows meeting for scones.
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.

bagpuss
After Pie
Posts: 1695
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 12:10 pm

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by bagpuss » Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:59 am

I went to see if I could find the answer to a lot of questions I had about that chart, namely:

1. Were people asked about their behaviour over a short recent time period - say the last week - or over a potentially longer period of time, such as all the time since they received their first vaccination? This is important for 2 reasons - firstly, if it's the latter then we're relying on memory over time and memory fades very quickly about specific minor events; and secondly, if it's the former, then each of those bars on the chart is representing a different group of people so small differences might not be anything to do with changes in behaviour over time but purely random noise due to each one being different people.

2. Is any more detail available about who people met with?

3. How many people were in the survey - especially the "had 2 jabs" group, since by mid Feb that was a pretty small number of people.


I found these answers:

1. It's not quite either of those but is closer to the second option. People were asked about whether they had met anyone since their vaccination and then those were broken down by people who had had them in the last 3 weeks or longer ago than that. So, while anyone in the "in the last 3 weeks" cohort will have been under full lockdown rules for all that time, and can probably remember fairly well, those who are in the "more than 3 weeks ago" cohort, could well have not been under full lockdown rules for the whole time. Anyone who had their first jab before Christmas - and that would probably be most people who had had 2 jabs - will have had some level of freedom in that time, including the special stupid Christmas rules where people in large swathes of the country were allowed to meet people indoors over Christmas. That being the case, I'm actually surprised at how low the numbers of people are who met someone indoors in the "had 2 jabs" group. But then, we're back to the memory thing - people might have been thinking about just the last few weeks while Christmas seems like an age ago.

2. Yes there is. People could tick as many boxes as apply, so these numbers can't be added up but, for those who have only received one dose, we have:
Support bubble: 36%
Friends: 5%
Spouse/partner: 5%
Child/children: 22%
Grandchild/grandchildren: 8%
Members of community: 4%
Visitors who support personal care such as nurses or care support workers: 11%
Other: 11%
Have met with nobody indoors: 34%

So, ignoring the support bubble and care providers, we have child/children as the biggest number with grandchild/grandchildren in 3rd. But there's no information on the reason - they could have been providing care, bringing in shopping, or even have been part of a support bubble. Remember, people could tick as many boxes as applied. If I was a single elderly person and my support bubble was my child and their children, instructed to tick all boxes that applied, I would have ticked support bubble AND child/children AND grandchild/grandchildren. I see no evidence of f.ckwittery here. There may be f.ckwittery but we cannot tell for sure.

2nd highest is Other - 11%. This is probably where your plumbers, oven repair people, electricians, etc, etc, will fall. No evidence of rule-breaking there but there could be, we can't possibly tell. I see no evidence of f.ckwittery here. There may be f.ckwittery but we cannot tell for sure.

Then we have friends and spouse/partner. The latter is likely to be people visiting a spouse/partner in a care home, plus a few people whose partner does live elsewhere, plus a few people who missed the part in the question that said to only include people you don't live with. Now, I haven't kept up with govt rules on care home visits as it's not relevant to me, and annoyingly the .gov.uk website has already been updated to only show rules from Monday 8th onwards so perhaps others can comment but I think that care home visits have been allowed at some care homes and under some circumstances? Friends? Could easily be care, again, or shopping delivery, or other needed help such as some necessary home maintenance. Again, I see no evidence of f.ckwittery here. There may be f.ckwittery but we cannot tell for sure.

What does that leave us? Just members of community - again, nothing to tell the reason and again, could easily be someone delivering groceries to someone who would struggle to carry them in from the doorstep.

There is ZERO evidence here of any rule-breaking. There may be some hiding behind the valid reasons for those people visiting, but there may not.


3. Answering the relevant question, we have a total of 2,042 people weighted to represent 2,799,000 population. That's a decent number, fair enough. And for the 2 doses? Just 305 people weighted to represent 423,000 people. 305 people is not a huge number so those numbers are going to have a fairly wide confidence interval around them.



So, while I totally understand the anger expressed in this forum, I don't think describing people as fuckwits without understanding their full personal circumstances, is very helpful. And describing anyone as a f.ckwit based on the chart which initiated this discussion is entirely unfair based, as it is, on evidence that is thin at best.



ETA: My source for all this - the data set behind that chart: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... population

I am supposed to be working so only had a very swift look and may have made errors. Please feel free to point out to me anything I've missed, although if anyone describes me as a f.ckwit as a result, I will not be answerable for my actions. ;)

bagpuss
After Pie
Posts: 1695
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 12:10 pm

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by bagpuss » Fri Mar 05, 2021 12:09 pm

Oh, and this has reminded me just why I get pissed off when stuff from surveys is reported without the nuances of the specific question being reported with it.

Because those charts have made the assumption that every box that was ticked that was not "support bubble" or "person providing care" was somebody outside of the support bubble/care provider group. And we all took it to mean that because of the way it was presented. But actually, a whole lot of those people could well be within the support bubble group.

So the people who made the chart presented it in the way that they perhaps intended the question to be understood and answered without making allowances for the possibility of the people answering the question understanding it and answering it in a different way.

User avatar
mediocrity511
Snowbonk
Posts: 409
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 2:16 pm

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by mediocrity511 » Fri Mar 05, 2021 12:12 pm

lpm wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:40 am
Well, not refused the vaccine, but kept waiting 2 or 3 months too long for the vaccine.

But anecdotally the problem is the other way - poor take up by Group 6. All other groups have had 80% running out the house to get the first possible appointment, then steadily ticking up to 90% or 95%. Group 6 (16-65 at risk) are not responding promptly to invitations, leaving spaces that GPs are filling with Group 7 (60-65).

There's a lot of focus on vaccine refusers - but it's not many weeks until the pressing problem will be vaccine can't be bothereds. People without objections but no desire either. Millions of doses ready and waiting to go into arms, but 18-50 year olds not responding to invites. It hits suddenly - everyone can infill capacity to 100% with eager 18-30 year olds, then overnight you discover you only have can't be bothereds remaining.
Isn't this because all groups except for group 6 have been able to book through the national system, whilst group 6 until the past 2 days could only be invited through their GP?
People have been very frustrated by slow GP roll out, with some thinking that they'd probably get done at a national hub on age based criteria first.

User avatar
Sciolus
Dorkwood
Posts: 1313
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:42 pm

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Sciolus » Fri Mar 05, 2021 12:30 pm

bagpuss wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:59 am
There is ZERO evidence here of any rule-breaking. There may be some hiding behind the valid reasons for those people visiting, but there may not.
Fair enough, and my anecdotage suggests that most people of all ages are still being careful on the whole. Thanks for digging into it.

User avatar
lpm
Junior Mod
Posts: 5944
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:05 pm

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Fri Mar 05, 2021 1:03 pm

mediocrity511 wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 12:12 pm
lpm wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:40 am
Well, not refused the vaccine, but kept waiting 2 or 3 months too long for the vaccine.

But anecdotally the problem is the other way - poor take up by Group 6. All other groups have had 80% running out the house to get the first possible appointment, then steadily ticking up to 90% or 95%. Group 6 (16-65 at risk) are not responding promptly to invitations, leaving spaces that GPs are filling with Group 7 (60-65).

There's a lot of focus on vaccine refusers - but it's not many weeks until the pressing problem will be vaccine can't be bothereds. People without objections but no desire either. Millions of doses ready and waiting to go into arms, but 18-50 year olds not responding to invites. It hits suddenly - everyone can infill capacity to 100% with eager 18-30 year olds, then overnight you discover you only have can't be bothereds remaining.
Isn't this because all groups except for group 6 have been able to book through the national system, whilst group 6 until the past 2 days could only be invited through their GP?
People have been very frustrated by slow GP roll out, with some thinking that they'd probably get done at a national hub on age based criteria first.
I know a Group 6 who got an appointment via the national hub system rather than from the GP.

Worth everybody trying the link. It's going to say no. But maybe some medical thing or just a clerical error? You don't need your NHS number but worth getting it handy for when your time comes in a few weeks.

https://www.nhs.uk/book-a-coronavirus-v ... nhs-number
⭐ Awarded gold star 4 November 2021

User avatar
mediocrity511
Snowbonk
Posts: 409
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 2:16 pm

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by mediocrity511 » Fri Mar 05, 2021 1:06 pm

Initially only those in receipt of carers allowance could book through the national hub as part of group 6. It has now been rolled out so most people can, some still can't for some reason though.

raven
Catbabel
Posts: 645
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 8:58 pm

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by raven » Fri Mar 05, 2021 2:52 pm

lpm wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 1:03 pm

I know a Group 6 who got an appointment via the national hub system rather than from the GP.
Same. Both sister and BiL got national qppointments & can only have been selected as part of Group 6 'cos they're under 50. (Unless sister qualified through some bizarre definition of social care staff that covers LSA in schools, but we don't think it was that...)

User avatar
discovolante
Stummy Beige
Posts: 4084
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:10 pm

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by discovolante » Fri Mar 05, 2021 4:01 pm

I've totally lost track. What are we giving people when they get the AstraZeneca vaccine at the moment? Are people getting two full doses minimum 12 weeks apart or a low dose? What's the efficacy after 1 dose and how long does it take to build up efficacy?
To defy the laws of tradition is a crusade only of the brave.

badger
Fuzzable
Posts: 264
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 3:23 pm

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by badger » Fri Mar 05, 2021 4:17 pm

raven wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 10:47 pm
shpalman wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 10:20 pm
raven wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 10:07 pm
Actually, are they publishing stats for vaccination by area anywhere? I could only find by region when I looked.
Maybe https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/s ... cinations/ and somebody made this
Cheers for that shpalman, you're a star.

Hm. If we are a bit behind, those stats hint at why. It looks like our area might have more than its share of elderly residents from the numbers, which would make sense. It's a nice quiet place to retire...
Oof, numbers in London (and some other city centres) are dire. And those percentage points translate into relatively large numbers of yer actual people, given population density, I assume.
Over 80s lowest proportion vaccinated percent
Lewisham, Deptford 68.3%
Camberwell and Peckham 69.4%
Tottenham 70.0%
Birmingham, Ladywood 70.8%
Brent Central 71.3%
Croydon North 71.5%
Hackney North and Stoke Newington 72.1%
Hackney South and Shoreditch 72.6%
Walthamstow 72.8%
Vauxhall 73.2%
Anyone got an idea on factors at play? I've seen some headlines but has there been any decent coverage that tries to unpick the numbers? Not looking good with kids going back on Monday (and people getting ahead of themselves with the lifting of restrictions, etc. etc.)

User avatar
jdc
Hilda Ogden
Posts: 1925
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:31 pm
Location: Your Mum

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by jdc » Fri Mar 05, 2021 4:26 pm

discovolante wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 4:01 pm
I've totally lost track. What are we giving people when they get the AstraZeneca vaccine at the moment? Are people getting two full doses minimum 12 weeks apart or a low dose? What's the efficacy after 1 dose and how long does it take to build up efficacy?
I'm sure we dropped the half-dose idea when we approved it and afaik this still applies to the timings: https://www.sps.nhs.uk/articles/dosing- ... 9-vaccine/ 4-12 weeks recommended; less than 21 days gap and you need a 3rd jab; more than 12 weeks and you stick with just the 2. So the 'minimum' is 4 weeks (but the real minimum is 3 weeks) and the 'maximum' is 12 weeks. Nothing mentioned there on whether it's two full doses but the Green Book says 'The dose of AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine is 0.5ml' which implies this is the only dose and we really did abandon the half-dose/full-dose idea. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... eb2021.pdf

(Pfizer here: https://www.sps.nhs.uk/articles/dosing- ... 9-vaccine/ says at least 21 days apart and 'may be given up to 12 weeks apart'. Less than 19 days apart and you need a 3rd jab. More than 12 weeks and you still just have the 2.)

On the response time to the vaccines, I've seen bits and pieces about how long it takes to generate antibodies and how long it takes before you can see a difference in rates of infection / hospitalisation etc and they all seem to be from at least 2-3 weeks after the first dose. I'd assume I'm not protected for 3 weeks from first dose.

Herainestold
After Pie
Posts: 2029
Joined: Mon Nov 25, 2019 1:23 pm

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Herainestold » Fri Mar 05, 2021 4:43 pm

I think we will get some better trial numbers from the big AZ study in America, assuming they didn't screw up the doses again.

Some jurisdictions are going to 16 weeks between doses, to stretch the vaccine supply, don't think there is any trial data to back this up.
Masking forever
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again

User avatar
discovolante
Stummy Beige
Posts: 4084
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:10 pm

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by discovolante » Fri Mar 05, 2021 4:44 pm

Thanks as ever jdc. Do we know much about what max efficacy is after one and two doses? I appreciate it builds up over time. I tried to have a look online but wasnt really sure what to make of it.
To defy the laws of tradition is a crusade only of the brave.

User avatar
jdc
Hilda Ogden
Posts: 1925
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:31 pm
Location: Your Mum

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by jdc » Fri Mar 05, 2021 5:16 pm

That paper me and shpalman were hunting for the other day has some bits on various studies of first dose effectiveness. Pasting from PDF so apols if the formatting's f.cked and I cba to fix it.

Comment on existing evidence:
A pooled analysis of four randomised trials reported one dose ChAdOx1nCoV-19 effectiveness
331 against symptomatic disease from day 22 to day 90 after first dose as 76·0% (95% CI 59·3–
332 85·9).[5] Measurement of neutralising anti-spike IgG antibody levels following a single
333 vaccine dose showed a peak at day 28 post vaccination. However, participants who received
334 only a single dose of ChAdOx1nCoV-19 had a median age 36∙3 years
The recently-released data from
336 Scotland reported 74-94% effectiveness of one dose of ChAdOx1nCoV-19 against
337 hospitalisation in that entire population between January and mid-February 2021
and from their own results looking at over-80s:
a sensitivity analysis restricting the observation period
347 for the BNT162b2 vaccine to the same period over which the ChAdOx1nCoV-19 vaccine was
348 studied, resulted in point estimates for the two vaccines that were almost identical (79.3% and
349 80.4%, respectively)
The unadjusted results are in a table on p30 https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.ph ... INDEX=TRUE

I'm not sure, but I think the unadjusted <14 days bit is saying that the vaccines are f.ck all use before that point. VE 6.5% Pfizer and -12.6% AZ

So the results from the pooled analysis looking at symptomatic infection in younger folk and the Bristol study into preventing hospitalisations in 80+ folks are both ~80% despite them having different endpoints and populations. I'm going to guess that 80% is about right for first dose efficacy. It's also within the range given by the Scottish study.

The initial results AZ gave were something like 64%, 72% and 90% for two doses so just pick whichever of those you like the look of.

User avatar
lpm
Junior Mod
Posts: 5944
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:05 pm

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by lpm » Fri Mar 05, 2021 5:27 pm

It's so easy to get this done, in a rich country with loads of idle resources.

Image
⭐ Awarded gold star 4 November 2021

Herainestold
After Pie
Posts: 2029
Joined: Mon Nov 25, 2019 1:23 pm

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by Herainestold » Fri Mar 05, 2021 5:46 pm

lpm wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 5:27 pm
It's so easy to get this done, in a rich country with loads of idle resources.

Image
That seems like it is too innovative to be British.
Masking forever
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again

User avatar
discovolante
Stummy Beige
Posts: 4084
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:10 pm

Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK

Post by discovolante » Fri Mar 05, 2021 5:48 pm

jdc wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 5:16 pm
That paper me and shpalman were hunting for the other day has some bits on various studies of first dose effectiveness. Pasting from PDF so apols if the formatting's f.cked and I cba to fix it.

Comment on existing evidence:
A pooled analysis of four randomised trials reported one dose ChAdOx1nCoV-19 effectiveness
331 against symptomatic disease from day 22 to day 90 after first dose as 76·0% (95% CI 59·3–
332 85·9).[5] Measurement of neutralising anti-spike IgG antibody levels following a single
333 vaccine dose showed a peak at day 28 post vaccination. However, participants who received
334 only a single dose of ChAdOx1nCoV-19 had a median age 36∙3 years
The recently-released data from
336 Scotland reported 74-94% effectiveness of one dose of ChAdOx1nCoV-19 against
337 hospitalisation in that entire population between January and mid-February 2021
and from their own results looking at over-80s:
a sensitivity analysis restricting the observation period
347 for the BNT162b2 vaccine to the same period over which the ChAdOx1nCoV-19 vaccine was
348 studied, resulted in point estimates for the two vaccines that were almost identical (79.3% and
349 80.4%, respectively)
The unadjusted results are in a table on p30 https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.ph ... INDEX=TRUE

I'm not sure, but I think the unadjusted <14 days bit is saying that the vaccines are f.ck all use before that point. VE 6.5% Pfizer and -12.6% AZ

So the results from the pooled analysis looking at symptomatic infection in younger folk and the Bristol study into preventing hospitalisations in 80+ folks are both ~80% despite them having different endpoints and populations. I'm going to guess that 80% is about right for first dose efficacy. It's also within the range given by the Scottish study.

The initial results AZ gave were something like 64%, 72% and 90% for two doses so just pick whichever of those you like the look of.
Well. At least it looks like I wasn't being a complete chump when I couldn't quite figure out what was going on, only a bit of a chump. Thanks again.
To defy the laws of tradition is a crusade only of the brave.

Post Reply