Vaccine rollout in the UK
Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK
I got a text from NHSvaccine telling me I could book a vaccination due to a preexisting condition, but that was 3 days after I got a text from my GP telling me I could book a vaccination due to my age, but that was 3 days after I already booked a vaccination when Mrs Y told me 56 year olds could do it now. So that seems a bit messed up but <shrug> roll on next Friday.
Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK
Rates of vaccine denial among care home staff are probably as high as among the general population. Total speculation but I suspect that you get clusters or bubbles of vaccine deniers as well. Add them together and I bet there are a few care homes with unvaccinated staff.Herainestold wrote: ↑Sun Mar 14, 2021 7:01 pmwarning! anecdote: A friend was telling me her mother's care home was under super lockdown after an out break among unvaccinated staff! How can that be?bob sterman wrote: ↑Sun Mar 14, 2021 6:43 pmYes - it seems there is a "complex police investigation" underway...snoozeofreason wrote: ↑Sat Mar 13, 2021 11:18 amThere have been two further outbreaks reported in Devonshire care homes where most staff and residents had been vaccinated. The originally mentioned one in Sidmouth is apparently being investigated by police and other agencies.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-56372847
Can't really even begin to wonder what that might mean.
where once I used to scintillate
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK
That's absolutely going to happen in Australia. The last covid death in the country happened last year (one death each in November and December) thanks to some really strict lockdowns and limitations of travel (all state borders opened yesterday for the first time in a year). All up, we've had about 900 deaths in a country with a population 40% the size of the UK's.snoozeofreason wrote: ↑Sat Mar 13, 2021 11:18 amI guess that, at some point, we will reach a situation where most Covid cases occur in people who have been vaccinated - not because the vaccines don't work, but because 10% of the vaccinated population is a bigger number than 100% of the unvaccinated - particularly among those groups most susceptible to the disease. Some delicacy will be required in order to report those cases without fuelling resistance to vaccination.
Once the vaccine rollout gets to some decent percentage of the population, we will have to let illnesses happen. It's a mathematical certainty that the majority of covid infections and deaths in Australia will happen post vaccination, simply because our health authorities and politicians kept us on the right side of the exponential curve while there was no vaccine. I'm sure all of Rupert Murdoch's newspapers will report these numbers sensitively and with appropriate nuance to help people understand why this actually demonstrates the success of Australia's handling of the pandemic. :/
Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK
Damn it. I was only planning to bet a quadrillion pounds but got reckless and went for a zillion.Grumble wrote: ↑Sat Mar 13, 2021 8:00 pmYou owe me a zillion pounds, it still hasn’t happened.lpm wrote: ↑Fri Mar 12, 2021 7:14 pmThis will happen tonight, bet you a zillion pounds. Any 50-54s around? If so look out at:
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavir ... ccination/
But anecdotally a lot of GPs are inviting 50-54. The take up by Group 6 (at risk) remains lower than it should be.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK
Update:lpm wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:49 pmUpdate as it was a bad week, the worst since mid Jan.lpm wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 9:08 amWeek to Sat 20 Feb: 2.5m 1st doses
Week to Sat 27 Feb: 2.5m 1st doses
So the lull, partly supply and partly stockpiling for 2nd doses (Pfizer probably), has cost us 1 million vs the FT chart. Improving from 3m to 4m per week would mean we catch up this deficit in a single week, if my calculations are correct.
Week to Sat 20 Feb: 2.5m 1st doses (0.1m 2nd)
Week to Sat 27 Feb: 2.5m 1st doses (0.2m 2nd)
Week to Sat 6 Mar: 2.1m 1st doses (0.3m 2nd)
So now 2m behind the "constant 3m per week" chart.
Talk that it's going to be another bad week. Call it 2m. But then March ends with two huge weeks of possibly 5m per week. If we get 12m in three weeks that not only delivers 2nd doses and completes groups 1-9 but makes a big start on 40-49.
Depends on take up, but by my calculations we need to do another:
- 2.0m of Group 6 (at risk) at 90% initial take up
- 0.1 m of Group 7 (60-64) at 90% initial take up
- 2.0m of Group 8 (55-59) at 85% initial take up
- 2.4m of Group 9 (50-54) at 85% initial take up
Total 6.5m
I expect Group 9 to be invited for week commencing 15 March and mostly complete by 21 March, then straight on to 40-49 well before Easter.
For those waiting for 2nd doses, Pfizer is being accelerated. My father got his 2nd at 8 week anniversary. Current 2nd dose level exceeds that indicated by simply taking 12 week anniversary figures.
Week to Sat 20 Feb: 2.5m 1st doses (0.1m 2nd)
Week to Sat 27 Feb: 2.5m 1st doses (0.2m 2nd)
Week to Sat 6 Mar: 2.1m 1st doses (0.3m 2nd)
Week to Sat 13 Mar: 2.0m 1st doses (0.5m 2nd)
Now all set for 5m per week, all the way up to Easter.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK
Nottingham: 40-49 begins.
https://nottsccg.nhs.uk/covid-19/covid- ... -and-over/If you are aged 40 or over, you can now book in for your Covid-19 vaccination
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK
Wow, well done Nottingham.lpm wrote: ↑Mon Mar 15, 2021 10:33 amNottingham: 40-49 begins.
https://nottsccg.nhs.uk/covid-19/covid- ... -and-over/If you are aged 40 or over, you can now book in for your Covid-19 vaccination
where once I used to scintillate
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now I sin till ten past three
Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK
There’s a lot of variation in how well the websites are kept up to date. My local one is still talking about over 70’s. That’s well out of date - I know for a fact they’re well beyond that.
http://www.stockport.nhs.uk/page_3271
http://www.stockport.nhs.uk/page_3271
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK
Given how Nottingham was mentioned in an article about least vaccinated places a couple of weeks back and how slow they were reaching all in groups 1-4, I'm inclined to think this may be a case of low uptake rather than a stellar vaccine roll out.Grumble wrote: ↑Mon Mar 15, 2021 10:53 amWow, well done Nottingham.lpm wrote: ↑Mon Mar 15, 2021 10:33 amNottingham: 40-49 begins.
https://nottsccg.nhs.uk/covid-19/covid- ... -and-over/If you are aged 40 or over, you can now book in for your Covid-19 vaccination
Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK
Low uptake is a good little dilemma.
Human happiness is increased when a 40 yr old eager for the vaccine gets it before a 60 yr old who can't be arsed.
Society's death rate is increased because the 60 yr old has a slightly higher IFR - but the increase is due to the known problem of people being crap at caring for their own health.
The reduction in transmission of the virus should be same.
Personally I'm happy to see our society racing to people who really want the vaccine. If more vulnerable people get left behind, that's their look out. They've been invited. Stupid people do stupid things like smoking, what's one more stupid thing.
I'll only start caring when the supply of eager 18-30 yr olds dries up, because then transmission becomes relevant.
Human happiness is increased when a 40 yr old eager for the vaccine gets it before a 60 yr old who can't be arsed.
Society's death rate is increased because the 60 yr old has a slightly higher IFR - but the increase is due to the known problem of people being crap at caring for their own health.
The reduction in transmission of the virus should be same.
Personally I'm happy to see our society racing to people who really want the vaccine. If more vulnerable people get left behind, that's their look out. They've been invited. Stupid people do stupid things like smoking, what's one more stupid thing.
I'll only start caring when the supply of eager 18-30 yr olds dries up, because then transmission becomes relevant.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK
It depends why uptake is low though among certain groups. Obviously there's the can't be bothered factor, but there's also the "can't negotiate the online system and the booking phoneline constantly falls over" or there's the "doesn't speak English very well, so needs to rely on a relative to do it for them", "doesn't watch or read the news so needs to be personally notified" etc. etc.
Let's be honest, any system which allows the most motivated to get vaccinated first means that the sharp elbowed middle classes get done first. And that will leave communities who have much lower level of protections and that will exacerbate inequalities.
Let's be honest, any system which allows the most motivated to get vaccinated first means that the sharp elbowed middle classes get done first. And that will leave communities who have much lower level of protections and that will exacerbate inequalities.
Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK
Local news has just said it was a mistake and 40-49 year olds can't actually book after all!lpm wrote: ↑Mon Mar 15, 2021 10:33 amNottingham: 40-49 begins.
https://nottsccg.nhs.uk/covid-19/covid- ... -and-over/If you are aged 40 or over, you can now book in for your Covid-19 vaccination
Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK
How many people might have changed their phone number and not told their GP? I’ve just realised this is me, I’m in no position to throw stones. I bet there’s always a percentage of people who are hard to contact for a variety of reasons and that percentage is likely to be higher in more deprived areas.mediocrity511 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 15, 2021 12:45 pmIt depends why uptake is low though among certain groups. Obviously there's the can't be bothered factor, but there's also the "can't negotiate the online system and the booking phoneline constantly falls over" or there's the "doesn't speak English very well, so needs to rely on a relative to do it for them", "doesn't watch or read the news so needs to be personally notified" etc. etc.
Let's be honest, any system which allows the most motivated to get vaccinated first means that the sharp elbowed middle classes get done first. And that will leave communities who have much lower level of protections and that will exacerbate inequalities.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK
That's a bit odd seeing as how there's a statement and everything!RoMo wrote: ↑Mon Mar 15, 2021 1:56 pmLocal news has just said it was a mistake and 40-49 year olds can't actually book after all!lpm wrote: ↑Mon Mar 15, 2021 10:33 amNottingham: 40-49 begins.
https://nottsccg.nhs.uk/covid-19/covid- ... -and-over/If you are aged 40 or over, you can now book in for your Covid-19 vaccination
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK
https://swiftqueue.zendesk.com/hc/en-gb ... f4UJYeXUDw
But you are right. Looks like a fair few people who were quick off the mark got appointments before they backtracked though.
But you are right. Looks like a fair few people who were quick off the mark got appointments before they backtracked though.
Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK
The missing millions in Group 6, plus in Groups 5 & 7, is well above the numbers that can be explained by poor English, no internet etc.mediocrity511 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 15, 2021 12:45 pmIt depends why uptake is low though among certain groups. Obviously there's the can't be bothered factor, but there's also the "can't negotiate the online system and the booking phoneline constantly falls over" or there's the "doesn't speak English very well, so needs to rely on a relative to do it for them", "doesn't watch or read the news so needs to be personally notified" etc. etc.
Let's be honest, any system which allows the most motivated to get vaccinated first means that the sharp elbowed middle classes get done first. And that will leave communities who have much lower level of protections and that will exacerbate inequalities.
There's an urgent need for surveys of why so many aren't coming forward promptly. Too much of the discussion is binary: takers vs vaccine conspiracists. I think my categories of "can't be bothereds" and "I'll get it done but will sort it laters" and "I'm not at risk and will let others go firsters" are more useful. We don't just need estimates of final take up, we also need a sense of how long and painful it'll be to drag several million arms into a vaccine centre. The problem will hit overnight: one moment loads of 18 years waiting eagerly in the queue, the next moment nothing but people who ignored text messages.
This does mean that eager 18 year olds will be done a lot earlier than most rollout commentators keep saying - there will be several weeks worth of older can't be bothereds still not done. I don't think it's fair to call the eager "sharp elbowed middle classes" - being most motivated and health-aware is a good thing. Nobody is jumping the queue, if you're holding the number 78 ticket and nobody shows up when they repeatedly shout for 76 and 77 then it's simply number 78's turn. And I'm pretty happy the UK is shouting loud and clear for the missing in the priority groups to come forward.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK
Or, as was the case for someone I know, deliberately not taking up the offer in January because they knew lots of people who'd had side effects and they were about to have a much-needed operation that had already been delayed by 8 months....mediocrity511 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 15, 2021 12:45 pmIt depends why uptake is low though among certain groups. Obviously there's the can't be bothered factor, but there's also the "can't negotiate the online system and the booking phoneline constantly falls over" or there's the "doesn't speak English very well, so needs to rely on a relative to do it for them", "doesn't watch or read the news so needs to be personally notified" etc. etc.
And then the op was cancelled. Again.
(They finally had the op this month, so fingers crossed the GPs will squeeze them in for the vaccine asap.)
Here, they're doing Group 6 in parallel to groups 5,7,8 & 9 -- i.e. local GPs are working through 6 while the rest are getting called up to the mass centres in descending age order. So even if take up was 100%, our area should be almost finished with 5 &7 and yet still only be halfway done 6.
The NHS England stats as of March 9th for take-up are:
60-64 69.4%
65-69 89.2%
70-74 95.9%
75-79 100%*
80+ 94.8%
(The 100% is because we've done more 75-79 yr olds than we thought existed...)
I'm guessing that the younger groups are trailing because a) there hasn't been as long to chase the stragglers, b) they're less worried than 80 yr olds, c) they're still working and therefore find it harder to get to the drs, or d) they're having more social contact so are more likely to have to self-isolate, which is valid reason for not making your vaccine appointment.
Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK
Well that’s an interesting point for another thread. If only there was a survey of some sort where we could find out how many people of a given age there are...
where once I used to scintillate
now I sin till ten past three
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK
Finally. 4 days late. Get in there, Group 9s.lpm wrote: ↑Fri Mar 12, 2021 7:14 pmThis will happen tonight, bet you a zillion pounds. Any 50-54s around? If so look out at:
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavir ... ccination/
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK
Group 9 is definitely a go. Got a text from the GPs earlier, booked in on Saturday. Yay!
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... r-shortage
People under 50 will have to wait a month longer than planned for their Covid vaccination because of a major shortage of vaccine that will start at the end of the month
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK
Just came here to post the very same.
Why am I not surprised...
Why am I not surprised...
Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK
They're currently talking about how effective both vaccine are after a single dose.
Why do I get a strong feeling they're going to switch to a single dose strategy?
Why do I get a strong feeling they're going to switch to a single dose strategy?
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Re: Vaccine rollout in the UK
Is it because the UK's strategy of keeping all its domestically produced vaccines to itself while importing from the EU at the same time has been rumbled?
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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