COVID-19

Covid-19 discussion, bring your own statistics
User avatar
Sciolus
Snowbonk
Posts: 589
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:42 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by Sciolus » Sat Mar 27, 2021 11:00 am

Chris Preston wrote:
Fri Mar 26, 2021 9:18 am
Probably the biggest risk of selecting vaccine avoiding variants will be through vaccinating part of the population, but allowing the virus to spread freely among the rest. That will provide a scenario of high virus population regularly meeting vaccinated people. It is a scenario we should try to avoid by not stretching out vaccination for too long and not opening up too soon.
Unfortunately that seems to be the UK strategy. A bit over half the population double-dosed by the end of June, and then a complete lifting of restrictions.

User avatar
headshot
Snowbonk
Posts: 608
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:40 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by headshot » Sat Mar 27, 2021 1:44 pm

Sciolus wrote:
Sat Mar 27, 2021 11:00 am
Chris Preston wrote:
Fri Mar 26, 2021 9:18 am
Probably the biggest risk of selecting vaccine avoiding variants will be through vaccinating part of the population, but allowing the virus to spread freely among the rest. That will provide a scenario of high virus population regularly meeting vaccinated people. It is a scenario we should try to avoid by not stretching out vaccination for too long and not opening up too soon.
Unfortunately that seems to be the UK strategy. A bit over half the population double-dosed by the end of June, and then a complete lifting of restrictions.
Aye, but hopefully the majority single dosed and protected, at least.

I also don’t believe they’ll completely lift restrictions by 21st June. I suspect some forms of social distancing and mask use might still be in place.

Herainestold
Catbabel
Posts: 905
Joined: Mon Nov 25, 2019 1:23 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by Herainestold » Sat Mar 27, 2021 3:22 pm

headshot wrote:
Sat Mar 27, 2021 1:44 pm
Sciolus wrote:
Sat Mar 27, 2021 11:00 am
Chris Preston wrote:
Fri Mar 26, 2021 9:18 am
Probably the biggest risk of selecting vaccine avoiding variants will be through vaccinating part of the population, but allowing the virus to spread freely among the rest. That will provide a scenario of high virus population regularly meeting vaccinated people. It is a scenario we should try to avoid by not stretching out vaccination for too long and not opening up too soon.
Unfortunately that seems to be the UK strategy. A bit over half the population double-dosed by the end of June, and then a complete lifting of restrictions.
Aye, but hopefully the majority single dosed and protected, at least.

I also don’t believe they’ll completely lift restrictions by 21st June. I suspect some forms of social distancing and mask use might still be in place.
Really need to keep restriction as long as possible. End of the year at least.

User avatar
Woodchopper
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3171
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Mar 28, 2021 4:33 am

Thread on possible spread of new variants in the UK https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1 ... 40609?s=21
the *new* variants of concern (SA, Brazil, our home grown SA copycats) do NOT have an "S dropout" - they look like the old variant on PCR tests.

This matters because we can calculate the proportion of cases that do NOT have an "S dropout" from the ONS data.

This prop'n was <5% since Feb but has now started to grow - i.e. gaining ground against the Kent strain.

It is unlikely that the old variant is gaining ground because we know it's less transmissible.

It's possible that this increase is the new variants gaining ground.

Numbers are still very low. Likely that new variants like SA are still less than 1-2% of all cases in England.

BUT I will say that's where Europe was with Kent at Xmas and now Kent is dominant there.

Because Kent is more transmissible than old variant, it's harder for new variants to gain ground against it.

But *if* they can more easily infect people who have had Covid or who've had the vax (esp 1 dose) then they have many more people they can infect & gain ground.

So even though current vaccines will hopefully prevent severe illness & death (we don't know, but likely), their spread nonetheless presents a much higher risk of a new bad wave in England than if we could stamp them out.

User avatar
Grumble
After Pie
Posts: 2018
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:03 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by Grumble » Tue Mar 30, 2021 5:33 pm

lpm wrote:
Thu Mar 25, 2021 10:12 am
The step-up would have been blurred by lags in reporting etc, making the step look more like a slope?
I think that is the case. School kids cases now trending back down in line with the others.
Attachments
9458AE9E-269A-43D1-B7A9-545FF41FC1AF.jpeg
9458AE9E-269A-43D1-B7A9-545FF41FC1AF.jpeg (225.63 KiB) Viewed 721 times
You’ve got no chutzpah, your organisational skills are lacklustre and your timekeeping is abysmal.

User avatar
shpalman
Light of Blast
Posts: 4226
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond

Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Thu Apr 01, 2021 10:35 am

According to the Guardian's writeup of this study,
Fewer than a quarter of people in the UK with Covid symptoms are requesting a test, while only half say they are fully self-isolating after symptoms develop.
molto tricky

User avatar
wilsontown
Buzzberry
Posts: 35
Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2021 11:51 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by wilsontown » Thu Apr 01, 2021 4:06 pm

After a period where cases have been flattish, they now appear to be consistently falling again...
Cases_010442021.png
Cases_010442021.png (45.75 KiB) Viewed 624 times
"All models are wrong but some are useful" - George Box

User avatar
shpalman
Light of Blast
Posts: 4226
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond

Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Fri Apr 02, 2021 6:08 pm

There were apparently so many people in the local supermarket this lunchtime that the police forced them to close.
molto tricky

Herainestold
Catbabel
Posts: 905
Joined: Mon Nov 25, 2019 1:23 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by Herainestold » Fri Apr 02, 2021 6:55 pm

shpalman wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 6:08 pm
There were apparently so many people in the local supermarket this lunchtime that the police forced them to close.
What about churches on Easter Weekend?

User avatar
Grumble
After Pie
Posts: 2018
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:03 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by Grumble » Fri Apr 02, 2021 6:58 pm

shpalman wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 6:08 pm
There were apparently so many people in the local supermarket this lunchtime that the police forced them to close.
It’s normally mental in supermarkets at Easter, I’ve never really understood why. I grew up in a fairly religious household but it was never a massive focus for us. I suspect it’s mainly a Catholic thing, I’ve only ever had Easter cards from Catholics. Catholics I know also do special roast dinners and suchlike on Easter Sunday.
You’ve got no chutzpah, your organisational skills are lacklustre and your timekeeping is abysmal.

Herainestold
Catbabel
Posts: 905
Joined: Mon Nov 25, 2019 1:23 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by Herainestold » Fri Apr 02, 2021 7:47 pm

Grumble wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 6:58 pm
shpalman wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 6:08 pm
There were apparently so many people in the local supermarket this lunchtime that the police forced them to close.
It’s normally mental in supermarkets at Easter, I’ve never really understood why. I grew up in a fairly religious household but it was never a massive focus for us. I suspect it’s mainly a Catholic thing, I’ve only ever had Easter cards from Catholics. Catholics I know also do special roast dinners and suchlike on Easter Sunday.
A Scots friend told me his father claimed that when he were a lad, the only two bank holidays were New Year's and Good Friday.
So I always figured it was a big day there, but I've never been there on Easter, so don t really know.

User avatar
shpalman
Light of Blast
Posts: 4226
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond

Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Fri Apr 02, 2021 8:47 pm

Good Friday isn't even a holiday here (but Monday is).
molto tricky

User avatar
Grumble
After Pie
Posts: 2018
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:03 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by Grumble » Fri Apr 02, 2021 8:54 pm

Herainestold wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 7:47 pm
Grumble wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 6:58 pm
shpalman wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 6:08 pm
There were apparently so many people in the local supermarket this lunchtime that the police forced them to close.
It’s normally mental in supermarkets at Easter, I’ve never really understood why. I grew up in a fairly religious household but it was never a massive focus for us. I suspect it’s mainly a Catholic thing, I’ve only ever had Easter cards from Catholics. Catholics I know also do special roast dinners and suchlike on Easter Sunday.
A Scots friend told me his father claimed that when he were a lad, the only two bank holidays were New Year's and Good Friday.
So I always figured it was a big day there, but I've never been there on Easter, so don t really know.
In Derby they used to have the Monday and Tuesday instead of the Friday and Monday as holidays.

I think it was Derby anyway, somewhere in the Midlands. Might have been West Midlands.
You’ve got no chutzpah, your organisational skills are lacklustre and your timekeeping is abysmal.

User avatar
sTeamTraen
After Pie
Posts: 1860
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:24 pm
Location: Palma de Mallorca, Spain

Re: COVID-19

Post by sTeamTraen » Fri Apr 02, 2021 9:31 pm

shpalman wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 8:47 pm
Good Friday isn't even a holiday here (but Monday is).
Interesting. In France (ostensibly secular, but most of the holidays are actually religious), Easter Monday is a national holiday, while Good Friday is only a holiday in the two départements of Alsace plus the département of Moselle, which together constitute the "Alsace-Lorraine" that people learn about in school (although the French have a different idea about what constitutes Lorraine/Löthringen than the Germans do). But where Good Friday is a holiday, it tends to be the bigger of the two, whether one is Protestant or Catholic.

Meanwhile, here in Spain, Good Friday is *the* big day of Easter; in non-Covid times it is the first day in Holy Week that doesn't have the local out-doing-each-other-for-devoutness parades with the KKK-style hoods. Easter Monday is not formally a national holiday, but in practice it is, almost everywhere. Maundy Thursday (yesterday) is a holiday in some regions (e.g., Baleares), but it's one of those slightly rubbish holidays where the shops are open until 3pm.
Something something hammer something something nail

User avatar
Grumble
After Pie
Posts: 2018
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:03 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by Grumble » Fri Apr 02, 2021 10:22 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 9:31 pm
shpalman wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 8:47 pm
Good Friday isn't even a holiday here (but Monday is).
Interesting. In France (ostensibly secular, but most of the holidays are actually religious), Easter Monday is a national holiday, while Good Friday is only a holiday in the two départements of Alsace plus the département of Moselle, which together constitute the "Alsace-Lorraine" that people learn about in school (although the French have a different idea about what constitutes Lorraine/Löthringen than the Germans do). But where Good Friday is a holiday, it tends to be the bigger of the two, whether one is Protestant or Catholic.

Meanwhile, here in Spain, Good Friday is *the* big day of Easter; in non-Covid times it is the first day in Holy Week that doesn't have the local out-doing-each-other-for-devoutness parades with the KKK-style hoods. Easter Monday is not formally a national holiday, but in practice it is, almost everywhere. Maundy Thursday (yesterday) is a holiday in some regions (e.g., Baleares), but it's one of those slightly rubbish holidays where the shops are open until 3pm.
Bit harsh to call them KKK style. This is a bit like the Nazis appropriating the swastika.
You’ve got no chutzpah, your organisational skills are lacklustre and your timekeeping is abysmal.

OffTheRock
Stargoon
Posts: 120
Joined: Mon Dec 02, 2019 6:52 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by OffTheRock » Fri Apr 02, 2021 10:57 pm

The now traditional sunny day at the 'end' of lockdown, get pissed in large groups and start a fight on the beach has taken place here. No news yet on the pointless placing of a dispersal order which will be ignored for day 2 of the fight tomorrow.

User avatar
sTeamTraen
After Pie
Posts: 1860
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:24 pm
Location: Palma de Mallorca, Spain

Re: COVID-19

Post by sTeamTraen » Fri Apr 02, 2021 11:07 pm

Grumble wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 10:22 pm
sTeamTraen wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 9:31 pm
Interesting. In France (ostensibly secular, but most of the holidays are actually religious), Easter Monday is a national holiday, while Good Friday is only a holiday in the two départements of Alsace plus the département of Moselle, which together constitute the "Alsace-Lorraine" that people learn about in school (although the French have a different idea about what constitutes Lorraine/Löthringen than the Germans do). But where Good Friday is a holiday, it tends to be the bigger of the two, whether one is Protestant or Catholic.

Meanwhile, here in Spain, Good Friday is *the* big day of Easter; in non-Covid times it is the first day in Holy Week that doesn't have the local out-doing-each-other-for-devoutness parades with the KKK-style hoods. Easter Monday is not formally a national holiday, but in practice it is, almost everywhere. Maundy Thursday (yesterday) is a holiday in some regions (e.g., Baleares), but it's one of those slightly rubbish holidays where the shops are open until 3pm.
Bit harsh to call them KKK style. This is a bit like the Nazis appropriating the swastika.
Fair enough. But it is hugely unsettling the first time you see it.
Something something hammer something something nail

User avatar
Grumble
After Pie
Posts: 2018
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:03 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by Grumble » Sat Apr 03, 2021 7:41 am

sTeamTraen wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 11:07 pm
Grumble wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 10:22 pm
sTeamTraen wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 9:31 pm
Interesting. In France (ostensibly secular, but most of the holidays are actually religious), Easter Monday is a national holiday, while Good Friday is only a holiday in the two départements of Alsace plus the département of Moselle, which together constitute the "Alsace-Lorraine" that people learn about in school (although the French have a different idea about what constitutes Lorraine/Löthringen than the Germans do). But where Good Friday is a holiday, it tends to be the bigger of the two, whether one is Protestant or Catholic.

Meanwhile, here in Spain, Good Friday is *the* big day of Easter; in non-Covid times it is the first day in Holy Week that doesn't have the local out-doing-each-other-for-devoutness parades with the KKK-style hoods. Easter Monday is not formally a national holiday, but in practice it is, almost everywhere. Maundy Thursday (yesterday) is a holiday in some regions (e.g., Baleares), but it's one of those slightly rubbish holidays where the shops are open until 3pm.
Bit harsh to call them KKK style. This is a bit like the Nazis appropriating the swastika.
Fair enough. But it is hugely unsettling the first time you see it.
I’d be prepared by virtue of having seen it in Asterix in Spain. :lol:
You’ve got no chutzpah, your organisational skills are lacklustre and your timekeeping is abysmal.

User avatar
shpalman
Light of Blast
Posts: 4226
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond

Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Sat Apr 03, 2021 4:18 pm

shpalman wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 6:08 pm
There were apparently so many people in the local supermarket this lunchtime that the police forced them to close.
I did walk over to the other nearby one just before lunch but there was a long queue outside so I didn't bother.

Now they've emailed to say there's a 10% discount on everything on Tuesday. Which is an interesting way of saying "guys, wait until after the weekend".
molto tricky

raven
Fuzzable
Posts: 372
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 8:58 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by raven » Sat Apr 03, 2021 9:17 pm

Grumble wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 6:58 pm
Catholics I know also do special roast dinners and suchlike on Easter Sunday.
I think everybody who likes roast dinners uses Easter as an excuse for one. I certainly am :D

User avatar
Grumble
After Pie
Posts: 2018
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:03 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by Grumble » Sat Apr 03, 2021 10:25 pm

raven wrote:
Sat Apr 03, 2021 9:17 pm
Grumble wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 6:58 pm
Catholics I know also do special roast dinners and suchlike on Easter Sunday.
I think everybody who likes roast dinners uses Easter as an excuse for one. I certainly am :D
Yes, but some will always have a joint of beef at Easter for example. They have a particular Easter meal. Like turkey at Christmas.
You’ve got no chutzpah, your organisational skills are lacklustre and your timekeeping is abysmal.

User avatar
sTeamTraen
After Pie
Posts: 1860
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:24 pm
Location: Palma de Mallorca, Spain

Re: COVID-19

Post by sTeamTraen » Sun Apr 04, 2021 7:29 pm

In 2020 (and in particular in the autumn and Christmas waves; spring 2020 was a bit all over the place because of chaos in both testing and cause of death records), we saw the line that plots deaths following the line that plots cases with a grimly predictable two-week lag. But in at least some countries that are having a third (or Nth) wave at the moment, that no longer holds. Here are three countries (France, Netherlands, Sweden) where deaths are now lagging cases by a long way (if indeed they are going to catch up at all), and one (Italy) where there seems to be no change. I guess this might be due to the effects of the vaccines (even one dose in the 15% of the population who account for 80% of the deaths will make a difference), but I have no explanation for Italy, which seems to have a similar vaccination percentage to the others.

4countries.png
4countries.png (88.28 KiB) Viewed 393 times
Note: in each case the scale for the red line (deaths) is 2% of the scale of the blue line. In the winter wave the Netherlands had, for some reason, a far lower CFR than many of its neighbours; hence why its red lines from that period are lower than in the other plots.
Something something hammer something something nail

User avatar
shpalman
Light of Blast
Posts: 4226
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond

Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Sun Apr 04, 2021 7:44 pm

Italy is only just now completing the rollout to non-care-home resident over-80's so I wouldn't expect to see a drop in the general CFR yet. And our most recent wave seems to have started just that little bit too soon.
molto tricky

User avatar
sTeamTraen
After Pie
Posts: 1860
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:24 pm
Location: Palma de Mallorca, Spain

Re: COVID-19

Post by sTeamTraen » Sun Apr 04, 2021 9:41 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sun Apr 04, 2021 7:44 pm
Italy is only just now completing the rollout to non-care-home resident over-80's so I wouldn't expect to see a drop in the general CFR yet. And our most recent wave seems to have started just that little bit too soon.
But Italy has given a first dose of a vaccine to 15% of the population, the same as the others in the diagram. Presumably 15% of the country can't be over 80?
Something something hammer something something nail

User avatar
shpalman
Light of Blast
Posts: 4226
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond

Re: COVID-19

Post by shpalman » Sun Apr 04, 2021 9:54 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Sun Apr 04, 2021 9:41 pm
shpalman wrote:
Sun Apr 04, 2021 7:44 pm
Italy is only just now completing the rollout to non-care-home resident over-80's so I wouldn't expect to see a drop in the general CFR yet. And our most recent wave seems to have started just that little bit too soon.
But Italy has given a first dose of a vaccine to 15% of the population, the same as the others in the diagram. Presumably 15% of the country can't be over 80?
You can see the breakdown of who got the doses on the government website. https://www.governo.it/it/cscovid19/report-vaccini/
molto tricky

Post Reply