cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown
- shpalman
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cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown
the unlockdown has already claimed a victim
There will now be an urgent recall of this batch of pubs and this bit of road while the regulator announces that there's no link within a few days.
There will now be an urgent recall of this batch of pubs and this bit of road while the regulator announces that there's no link within a few days.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown
See if anyone can spot the problem in this photo...from The Guardian:
![Image](https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/9416d132efcb2664de03982edfa4fc430b6d0cb4/0_146_4272_2563/master/4272.jpg?width=620&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=9857378cccd683212f935efe56dbfee2)
![Image](https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/9416d132efcb2664de03982edfa4fc430b6d0cb4/0_146_4272_2563/master/4272.jpg?width=620&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=9857378cccd683212f935efe56dbfee2)
- Trinucleus
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown
Probably a high incidence of clotsshpalman wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 10:28 amthe unlockdown has already claimed a victim
There will now be an urgent recall of this batch of pubs and this bit of road while the regulator announces that there's no link within a few days.
- bob sterman
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown
I was wondering about that, but quite a few barbers wear rubber gloves to prevent interdigital pilonidal sinus - so it might be for that rather than Covid. But even then, one glove makes no sense.
(Seriously, DO NOT do a Google image search pilonidal sinus)
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- After Pie
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown
Get ready for a big spike in cases. Deaths shouldn't spike as much because of vaccination. Still.
Keep wearing your mask, keep distancing, don't travel, avoid crowds and pubs especially.
Enjoy your spring.
Keep wearing your mask, keep distancing, don't travel, avoid crowds and pubs especially.
Enjoy your spring.
Masking forever
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
- Trinucleus
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown
Isn't that the point though, if people aren't dying and being hospitalised, there's less need to restrict activitiesHerainestold wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 2:08 pmGet ready for a big spike in cases. Deaths shouldn't spike as much because of vaccination. Still.
Keep wearing your mask, keep distancing, don't travel, avoid crowds and pubs especially.
Enjoy your spring.
- discovolante
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown
Well, depends on things like long covid too.Trinucleus wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:06 pmIsn't that the point though, if people aren't dying and being hospitalised, there's less need to restrict activitiesHerainestold wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 2:08 pmGet ready for a big spike in cases. Deaths shouldn't spike as much because of vaccination. Still.
Keep wearing your mask, keep distancing, don't travel, avoid crowds and pubs especially.
Enjoy your spring.
To defy the laws of tradition is a crusade only of the brave.
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- After Pie
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown
Over half the population is still not vaccinated,so all those people are vulnerable. New variants are hitting younger people , the unvaccinated, harder.Trinucleus wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:06 pmIsn't that the point though, if people aren't dying and being hospitalised, there's less need to restrict activitiesHerainestold wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 2:08 pmGet ready for a big spike in cases. Deaths shouldn't spike as much because of vaccination. Still.
Keep wearing your mask, keep distancing, don't travel, avoid crowds and pubs especially.
Enjoy your spring.
It looks like it could be an all new pandemic hitting a new demographic, and could be bad. Likely not as bad as the first waves, but still severe and putting significant strain on the NHS.
Masking forever
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown
Not really. The lockdowns make us poorer, and we know being poorer is bad for public health... Our future healthcare is going to need economic prosperity so we can't carry on limiting activities for a mostly non-fatal illness. At some point all those morons with "lockdown is worse for health than the disease" will finally be right.discovolante wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:47 pmWell, depends on things like long covid too.Trinucleus wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:06 pmIsn't that the point though, if people aren't dying and being hospitalised, there's less need to restrict activitiesHerainestold wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 2:08 pmGet ready for a big spike in cases. Deaths shouldn't spike as much because of vaccination. Still.
Keep wearing your mask, keep distancing, don't travel, avoid crowds and pubs especially.
Enjoy your spring.
- discovolante
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown
I'm not really arguing against lifting restrictions sensibly. I'm pretty desperate to get out and about myself. I'm not going to try and hazard a guess at the best way to do it or when in light of the vaccine programme, but if we already have 1 million people reporting symptoms of long covid then it's not something that should be ignored, and so far it has been.lpm wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 5:09 pmNot really. The lockdowns make us poorer, and we know being poorer is bad for public health... Our future healthcare is going to need economic prosperity so we can't carry on limiting activities for a mostly non-fatal illness. At some point all those morons with "lockdown is worse for health than the disease" will finally be right.discovolante wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:47 pmWell, depends on things like long covid too.Trinucleus wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:06 pm
Isn't that the point though, if people aren't dying and being hospitalised, there's less need to restrict activities
To defy the laws of tradition is a crusade only of the brave.
Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown
By the next unlockdown date about 30 million will be unfirstdosed in the UK. Mostly under 40.
If 10% of these get covid in a new wave that's 3 million cases.
Long Covid hits about 10% of this age group. So 300,000.
Realistically the vaccines should outpace the wave. There's going to be Long Covid cases for years to come, but I can't see how it will be worse than the diseases of unemployment and poverty.
If 10% of these get covid in a new wave that's 3 million cases.
Long Covid hits about 10% of this age group. So 300,000.
Realistically the vaccines should outpace the wave. There's going to be Long Covid cases for years to come, but I can't see how it will be worse than the diseases of unemployment and poverty.
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- After Pie
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown
With lockdowns it isn't the economy vs health but short term vs long term. The vaccine program has been exemplary, but we can't throw that away because we want to go down to the pub or to the match. Most of the drop in cases has been due to lockdown not vaccination. We need to keep up the pace on vaccinations but stay locked down a little longer. Once we get cases down to zero and 90% of the pop vaxed, then we can open up and the economy will boom. We will be so much better than other countries that didnt follow that path. Look for example how Australia and China are doing right now. that could be us, if we play our cards right.lpm wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 5:09 pmNot really. The lockdowns make us poorer, and we know being poorer is bad for public health... Our future healthcare is going to need economic prosperity so we can't carry on limiting activities for a mostly non-fatal illness. At some point all those morons with "lockdown is worse for health than the disease" will finally be right.discovolante wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:47 pmWell, depends on things like long covid too.Trinucleus wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:06 pm
Isn't that the point though, if people aren't dying and being hospitalised, there's less need to restrict activities
Masking forever
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
- bob sterman
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown
Sky News discovers positive skew!
In other news - half of local authorities reported an infection rate higher than the median.
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-the ... obal-en-GB"One third of local authorities reported a higher than average infection rate in the most recent week for which data is available."
In other news - half of local authorities reported an infection rate higher than the median.
- bob sterman
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown
So apparently a group of 20 "leading scientists" have just written an open letter to the PM demanding the end of social distancing and mask requirements.
It isn't too hard to guess who some of these "leading scientists" are.![Rolling Eyes :roll:](./images/smilies/icon_rolleyes.gif)
It isn't too hard to guess who some of these "leading scientists" are.
![Rolling Eyes :roll:](./images/smilies/icon_rolleyes.gif)
- bob sterman
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown
Just checked - all the usual suspects are there - Heneghan, Gupta, Sikora, Dingwall...
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/an- ... nd-in-june
The letter includes the justification...
I thought we were going to be putting this all behind us fairly soon - but now Heneghan thinks we are, I'm starting to doubt it!
And the authors have suddently become experts in host-pathogen co-evolution...
Remember back in May/June 2020 they were banging on about how cross-reactive T-cell immunity from common colds was going to save us all from SARS-CoV-2???
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/an- ... nd-in-june
The letter includes the justification...
This echos Heneghan's classic August 2020 claim...For most vaccinated and other low-risk people, Covid-19 is now a mild endemic infection...
Except it's a bit more specific - now it's not mild for everyone, only mild for the people for whom it is mild.Right now [COVID-19] is of low impact, a weak disease,
I thought we were going to be putting this all behind us fairly soon - but now Heneghan thinks we are, I'm starting to doubt it!
And the authors have suddently become experts in host-pathogen co-evolution...
Huh??? Sound evolutionary reasons to believe that when you impose a selection pressure on a pathogen (e.g. with vaccine induced immunity) - versions of the pathogen that evade that vaccine response are not favoured????This level of [vaccine] protection against serious illness seems not to be significantly affected by any of the variants that have been observed, because of the breadth of T-cell responses. There are sound evolutionary reasons why this is unlikely to change in the near future with new variants.
Remember back in May/June 2020 they were banging on about how cross-reactive T-cell immunity from common colds was going to save us all from SARS-CoV-2???
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- After Pie
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown
Heneghan is a reliable counter indicator. If he says the worst is over, buckle down for the next wave. 50% of the population remains unvaccinated,thought we were going to be putting this all behind us fairly soon - but now Heneghan thinks we are, I'm starting to doubt it!
at the same time as new more virulent variants that target the young are emerging. Now is not the time to unlock.
I will continue to double mask, avoid people, and look forward to a pub visit in 2022. Maybe.
Masking forever
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
- individualmember
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown
I’m just reading this
And I’m wondering what they mean by the difference between pandemic and endemic. I thought they were principally geographic terms, it’s in lots of countries versus it’s in this country.
(duplicated in various media reports e.g. https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/uk ... s-20449144 )The study is based on data from the national Covid Infection Survey, which is run by the University of Oxford and the Office for National Statistics.
Sarah Walker, professor of medical statistics and epidemiology at Oxford and chief investigator on the survey, told The Telegraph that Britain had “moved from a pandemic to an endemic situation”.
And I’m wondering what they mean by the difference between pandemic and endemic. I thought they were principally geographic terms, it’s in lots of countries versus it’s in this country.
- Woodchopper
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown
Depends upon the context. In this case I assume that she means: endemic is present in a country at about a constant level, pandemic is rapidly spreading.individualmember wrote: ↑Sun Apr 25, 2021 8:22 pmI’m just reading this(duplicated in various media reports e.g. https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/uk ... s-20449144 )The study is based on data from the national Covid Infection Survey, which is run by the University of Oxford and the Office for National Statistics.
Sarah Walker, professor of medical statistics and epidemiology at Oxford and chief investigator on the survey, told The Telegraph that Britain had “moved from a pandemic to an endemic situation”.
And I’m wondering what they mean by the difference between pandemic and endemic. I thought they were principally geographic terms, it’s in lots of countries versus it’s in this country.
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- Fuzzable
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown
Isn't epidemic 'in this country' vs 'it's in lots of countries'? Endemic would be be something like chicken pox i.e. something that's commonly circulating and regularly infecting people.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:56 pmDepends upon the context. In this case I assume that she means: endemic is present in a country at about a constant level, pandemic is rapidly spreading.individualmember wrote: ↑Sun Apr 25, 2021 8:22 pmI’m just reading this(duplicated in various media reports e.g. https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/uk ... s-20449144 )The study is based on data from the national Covid Infection Survey, which is run by the University of Oxford and the Office for National Statistics.
Sarah Walker, professor of medical statistics and epidemiology at Oxford and chief investigator on the survey, told The Telegraph that Britain had “moved from a pandemic to an endemic situation”.
And I’m wondering what they mean by the difference between pandemic and endemic. I thought they were principally geographic terms, it’s in lots of countries versus it’s in this country.
Difficult to see how it could be endemic here without us looking like India or Brazil.
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- After Pie
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown
It is endemic here. Its circulating and infecting people. Around 2000 new cases per day. And 50% of the population is unvaccinated. What is happening in Brazil and India is epidemic. Well pandemic actually because it is happening in multiple countries. But you knew that.OffTheRock wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 10:04 pmIsn't epidemic 'in this country' vs 'it's in lots of countries'? Endemic would be be something like chicken pox i.e. something that's commonly circulating and regularly infecting people.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:56 pmDepends upon the context. In this case I assume that she means: endemic is present in a country at about a constant level, pandemic is rapidly spreading.individualmember wrote: ↑Sun Apr 25, 2021 8:22 pmI’m just reading this
(duplicated in various media reports e.g. https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/uk ... s-20449144 )
And I’m wondering what they mean by the difference between pandemic and endemic. I thought they were principally geographic terms, it’s in lots of countries versus it’s in this country.
Difficult to see how it could be endemic here without us looking like India or Brazil.
We are going to see at least two more waves. There will be the unlockdown wave, as restrictions are eased. In the autumn there will be another seasonal wave. By then there should be enough fully vaccinated people that the death toll will be much less. Vaccination doesn't stop transmission it only ameliorates severe outcomes and not by 100% either. So there will be plenty more cases, hospitalizations, but not as much death. Keep your mask on.
Masking forever
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
- Woodchopper
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown
I used that google to find these:
Sporadic refers to a disease that occurs infrequently and irregularly.
Endemic refers to the constant presence and/or usual prevalence of a disease or infectious agent in a population within a geographic area.
Hyperendemic refers to persistent, high levels of disease occurrence.
Epidemic refers to an increase, often sudden, in the number of cases of a disease above what is normally expected in that population in that area.
Outbreak carries the same definition of epidemic, but is often used for a more limited geographic area. Cluster refers to an aggregation of cases grouped in place and time that are suspected to be greater than the number expected, even though the expected number may not be known.
Pandemic refers to an epidemic that has spread over several countries or continents, usually affecting a large number of people.
- Boustrophedon
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Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown
*Citation needed.Herainestold wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 11:59 pmVaccination doesn't stop transmission* it only ameliorates severe outcomes and not by 100% either.
Hjulet snurrar men hamstern är död.
Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown
Today's news reports that a single Pfizer or AZ dose seems to reduce transmission by 40-50% where part-vaccinated people get an infection.Boustrophedon wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 9:05 am*Citation needed.Herainestold wrote: ↑Tue Apr 27, 2021 11:59 pmVaccination doesn't stop transmission* it only ameliorates severe outcomes and not by 100% either.
So if it reduces the chances of getting it and reduces the chance of spreading it, it should really help.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56904993
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!
Re: cOVID_19 the unreunrelockdown
The UK now has about 67% of the population with some sort of immunity - vaccine or previous illness. Guessing that the transmission reduction is only two-thirds, not full transmission prevention, would give an effective 44% immunity level.
44% immunity requires lockdown measures equivalent to an R=1.8 level. Which is fairly easy, current lockdown measures are probably enough to be around this.
Won't be long till the UK reaches 75% vaccinated/previous, which at two-thirds translates to needing lockdown at the R=2.0 level.
And ultimately the final destination by August is about 85% of the population with immunity - 95% of all adults vaccinated, something like 33% of children with previous illness or a vaccine. Again, assuming it only cuts out two-thirds of transmission, an R=2.25 lockdown type level is sufficient to hold the disease under control. I reckon the 17 May unlockdowning probably takes us to the R=2.25 area.
Problem is, full reopening with no face masks, distancing etc leads to the virus's natural R=4 sort of level. Which means resurgencence following the 21 June unlocking. Ways to deal with it:
- retain measures, e.g. mask requirements, no large indoor crowds
- vaccinate children to the 95% level
- or easier if the two-thirds guess for transmission reduction is too pessimistic
44% immunity requires lockdown measures equivalent to an R=1.8 level. Which is fairly easy, current lockdown measures are probably enough to be around this.
Won't be long till the UK reaches 75% vaccinated/previous, which at two-thirds translates to needing lockdown at the R=2.0 level.
And ultimately the final destination by August is about 85% of the population with immunity - 95% of all adults vaccinated, something like 33% of children with previous illness or a vaccine. Again, assuming it only cuts out two-thirds of transmission, an R=2.25 lockdown type level is sufficient to hold the disease under control. I reckon the 17 May unlockdowning probably takes us to the R=2.25 area.
Problem is, full reopening with no face masks, distancing etc leads to the virus's natural R=4 sort of level. Which means resurgencence following the 21 June unlocking. Ways to deal with it:
- retain measures, e.g. mask requirements, no large indoor crowds
- vaccinate children to the 95% level
- or easier if the two-thirds guess for transmission reduction is too pessimistic