For the UK audience, if they persist with a mince war, the ground is being nicely set for the Northern Singapore “f.ck the lot of you, we’ll tear up the rulebook” model.
Brexit Consequences
Re: Brexit Consequences
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Re: Brexit Consequences
The EU is pursuing legal means. But they'll take time.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Fri Jun 11, 2021 5:09 pmI've actually been quite surprised at how much wriggling the UK has got away with so far.
The problem for the EU is that now that the agreement has been signed and ratified in practice it has far less leverage. It could start retaliating with things like tariff increases, but that would harm the EU as well as the UK, and the dispute would probably rattle on in the WTO for years.
Re: Brexit Consequences
It very much depends on whether sectarian tensions arise in NI. I suspect this could be addressed to some extent with the good old fashioned pork barrel. Britain’s global reputation will be partly dependent on our getting out of this mess without getting hamstrung too badly by the EU.
Re: Brexit Consequences
Speaking utterly hypothetically, what would the 'constitutional procedure' be for expelling Northern Ireland from the UK ?
A majority in Parliament and force the Lords and HRH to agree ?
A majority in Parliament and force the Lords and HRH to agree ?
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Re: Brexit Consequences
I mean, the US has also been pretty clear it wants the UK to respect the deals it's signed (GFA and NI Protocol). So the UK's reputation with the two wealthiest non-dictator blocks seemingly depends more on being able to negotiate deals it understands and is able and willing to implement.
For a North Atlantic Singapore model to work, I suspect the UK would need trading partners on at least one side of the Atlantic that trust it. Maybe Canada likes wriggling?
For a North Atlantic Singapore model to work, I suspect the UK would need trading partners on at least one side of the Atlantic that trust it. Maybe Canada likes wriggling?
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.
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Re: Brexit Consequences
Give them a referendum, after a couple more years of brexit chaos, English Tory contempt and ignorance, and Scotland successfully rejoining the EU.
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.
Re: Brexit Consequences
The situation reminds me of the time that Russia banned food imports from the EU, in response to the EU applying sanctions. The sanctions were for annexing Crimea. So not exactly having the moral high place.
The effect of the food embargo was to increase food prices and variety in Russia, just what the Russian consumer wants. I have some half-memory of seeing an assesssment it was equivalent to an income reduction of about 5% for the median Russian wage-earner. Doubtless that has ameliorated as new sources of supply have opened up, including a degree of re-export through places like Belarus.
But Putin successfully portrayed it as a patriotic measure, and got no comeback. It's what all politicians want, an enemy to demonise, and distract from the real issues.
The effect of the food embargo was to increase food prices and variety in Russia, just what the Russian consumer wants. I have some half-memory of seeing an assesssment it was equivalent to an income reduction of about 5% for the median Russian wage-earner. Doubtless that has ameliorated as new sources of supply have opened up, including a degree of re-export through places like Belarus.
But Putin successfully portrayed it as a patriotic measure, and got no comeback. It's what all politicians want, an enemy to demonise, and distract from the real issues.
Re: Brexit Consequences
Success in portraying the inconvenience as the result of malign external forces and not as an inevitable result of your state's bad actions would depend on there being a compliant media - so the other view isn't presented.
Yup, it would work here too
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!
Re: Brexit Consequences
Yes. This is why it’s being portrayed as all about mince. It’s helpful that it is actually all about mince, too.
The rest of the world won’t care that we’re wriggling like crazy. What else are we supposed to do?
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Re: Brexit Consequences
Well, it did seem to overshadow parts of the G7 meeting, with Biden and Trudeau both commenting publicly along with the euros.plodder wrote: ↑Mon Jun 14, 2021 4:28 pmYes. This is why it’s being portrayed as all about mince. It’s helpful that it is actually all about mince, too.
The rest of the world won’t care that we’re wriggling like crazy. What else are we supposed to do?
As for "what else to do", the suggestion from the US and EU seems to be to stick to the thing they signed at the end of last year: the main UK-EU border that the UK wants is going in the Irish Sea.
The fact that they're finding it tricky to implement that border six months later suggests that they signed something they hadn't read, hadn't understood, or never intended to stick to it. Whichever is the case, people negotiating deals with the UK absolutely will care.
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.
Re: Brexit Consequences
no they won’t care, unless that deal has a really entrenched and complex border arrangement with centuries of bad feeling attached to it.
Re: Brexit Consequences
Yes you are correct. The UK breaking the terms of a major international agreement within two years of signing it will have no impact on other countries' willingness to make new agreements with them. Especially if the prime minister who both signed and broke the agreement is still in power.
The EU are really losing the battle for good optics here.
Re: Brexit Consequences
I am correct. We're sticking to everything apart from the bit both sides knew was impossible when they signed up. We've all been saying, for years, that it's an impossible circle to square. Everyone knows it, even trade experts from other countries who we negotiate with.WFJ wrote: ↑Mon Jun 14, 2021 6:45 pmYes you are correct. The UK breaking the terms of a major international agreement within two years of signing it will have no impact on other countries' willingness to make new agreements with them. Especially if the prime minister who both signed and broke the agreement is still in power.
The EU are really losing the battle for good optics here.
Re: Brexit Consequences
It is was an impossible circle to square (aren't all circles impossible to square?) only according to the conditions set by Johnson et al. Hence Johnson having to capitulate at the last minute, and effectively accepting what was the EU's initial negotiating position back in 2017, in order to get a deal and not completely crash the UK economy. Breaking that agreement now is only a short-term win for Johnson in the eyes of Mail-reading Kippers.plodder wrote: ↑Mon Jun 14, 2021 6:52 pmI am correct. We're sticking to everything apart from the bit both sides knew was impossible when they signed up. We've all been saying, for years, that it's an impossible circle to square. Everyone knows it, even trade experts from other countries who we negotiate with.
Re: Brexit Consequences
who cares about why? Everyone knows why. It’s irrelevant.
Re: Brexit Consequences
Everyone knows why what?
Your claim was that the UK had some sort of negotiating leverage due to bad optics of a mince or sausage war waged by the EU. Outside the UK nobody is talking about this, so it is only bad optics in the eyes of people in the UK who already hate the EU. Why would the EU care about the views of these people?
To the outside world this is seen as the UK being an unreliable and dishonest partner, who will say anything for short-term benefit before reneging at the first opportunity. Why do you think this will have no effect on the UK's future ability to make agreements and trade deals, especially under the current government?
Re: Brexit Consequences
because money talks and the only unreliable bit is the bit literally everyone knew would be unreliable.
eta so both sides are talking up to their respective audiences. the rhetoric doesn’t really matter, and once the mince starts flowing and it’s all been kicked into the long grass again it’ll be on to the next thing.
eta so both sides are talking up to their respective audiences. the rhetoric doesn’t really matter, and once the mince starts flowing and it’s all been kicked into the long grass again it’ll be on to the next thing.
Last edited by plodder on Mon Jun 14, 2021 8:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Brexit Consequences
It's not true that nobody's talking about it - Biden and Trudeau have both made statements, and they weren't exactly calling the EU silly sausages.
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.
Re: Brexit Consequences
yeah but the US is just reminding everyone to play nicely. it’s just talk at a summit. They’ll be some more huffing and puffing and posturing, and some temporary muscle flexing, but as long as the UK bribes the fundie nutters in NI and stops things kicking off it’ll be manageable.
And it’s nicely paving the way for an aggressive low regulation environment that will restore the competitive balance (at what cost to nice things? god knows), but at least the poshos get to pay less tax.
And it’s nicely paving the way for an aggressive low regulation environment that will restore the competitive balance (at what cost to nice things? god knows), but at least the poshos get to pay less tax.
Re: Brexit Consequences
or, for the hundredth time: neither side will build the border infrastructure. so it’s always going to be a fudge.
Re: Brexit Consequences
So you think the EU are facing some sort of reputational damage because the Daily Express writes some headlines about sausage wars, but the UK will not suffer from breaking international agreements because everyone knew Bozza would stick it to them Europeans? Do you view all world politics through the varifocals of a 60 year old housewife from Margate?plodder wrote: ↑Mon Jun 14, 2021 8:38 pmbecause money talks and the only unreliable bit is the bit literally everyone knew would be unreliable.
eta so both sides are talking up to their respective audiences. the rhetoric doesn’t really matter, and once the mince starts flowing and it’s all been kicked into the long grass again it’ll be on to the next thing.
Exactly. That was what I meant. Plodder's point about the negative optics of mince or sausage wars waged by the EU is nonsense. That is purely a UK tabloid spin on the story that Johnson is trying to play up. The view from outside is very different and the damage done to the UK's reputation is real.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Mon Jun 14, 2021 8:38 pmIt's not true that nobody's talking about it - Biden and Trudeau have both made statements, and they weren't exactly calling the EU silly sausages.
Re: Brexit Consequences
oh yeah? evidence please. Macron or Biden’s posturing is no more relevant than Johnson’s.
Everyone knows this was going to be sticky, no one is surprised, everyone is interested to see how it pans out, no one cares about mince, everyone cares about keeping the nutters with the car bombs under control. The test is the latter.
Everyone knows this was going to be sticky, no one is surprised, everyone is interested to see how it pans out, no one cares about mince, everyone cares about keeping the nutters with the car bombs under control. The test is the latter.
Re: Brexit Consequences
I’ve been very clear that the EU mince wars rhetoric is for the 60 year old Margate lady in your post, and it’s working.
Re: Brexit Consequences
Macron's comments may not be, as an interested party, but how is the US officially criticising the UK government not evidence of reputational damage in the outside world?plodder wrote: ↑Mon Jun 14, 2021 8:57 pmoh yeah? evidence please. Macron or Biden’s posturing is no more relevant than Johnson’s.
Everyone knows this was going to be sticky, no one is surprised, everyone is interested to see how it pans out, no one cares about mince, everyone cares about keeping the nutters with the car bombs under control. The test is the latter.
Then as I said in my previous post. Why would the EU, or anyone else, care?
Re: Brexit Consequences
cause it’s just talk. The rhetoric isn’t for the EU. They’re grown ups and they also understand the rules of the game.