Brexit Consequences

Discussions about serious topics, for serious people
Post Reply
User avatar
Woodchopper
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3975
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Jul 05, 2021 2:10 pm

tom p wrote:
Mon Jul 05, 2021 2:05 pm
Fishnut wrote:
Mon Jul 05, 2021 1:59 pm
A question - given that we've shown ourselves to be completely incapable of abiding by the terms of an agreement that we were boasting about securing only a few months ago, why on earth would any other country try and work out a trade deal with us? We've shown ourselves to either entirely dishonest or completely incompetent, never of which will have people climbing over each other to work with us.
Exactly. It's why plodder's trolling is just pointless - he's not clever or funny and he doesn't have an answer to that 'cos there isn't one.
And yet, the negotiations with other states are still happening.

plodder
After Pie
Posts: 1675
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:50 pm

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Mon Jul 05, 2021 2:17 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Jul 05, 2021 2:09 pm
Fishnut wrote:
Mon Jul 05, 2021 1:59 pm
A question - given that we've shown ourselves to be completely incapable of abiding by the terms of an agreement that we were boasting about securing only a few months ago, why on earth would any other country try and work out a trade deal with us? We've shown ourselves to either entirely dishonest or completely incompetent, never of which will have people climbing over each other to work with us.
Two reasons why they might. Firstly is the extent to which NI is viewed as an exceptional case which won't affect other trade relationships. Basically 'what happens in Belfast stays in Belfast'. When the Australian negotiators sit down with their UK counterparts they may assume that the UK will act differently.

Secondly, states renege on their agreements all the time. The UK is doing it particularly brazenly, but it doesn't have the nickname perfidious Albion for nothing. trade agreements include clauses on disputes and what happens if one party doesn't fulfill its side of the bargain (eg raising tariffs again). That's not to say that UK actions are cost free. Trade agreements will take longer if other parties try to get everything spelled out in detail, and other states may be unwilling to open up some sectors of their economies.
Yes. And chop's first point is the one the UK will leap on - we don't have a contested border issue with centuries of religious differences and recent paramilitary campaigning that, for example, New Zealand needs to worry about.

It's also worth remembering that if the EU introduce tariffs on NI specifically this will only raise tensions in the area. They don't have quite so much leverage here as they do elsewhere. This 3 month extension is the first of many.

plodder
After Pie
Posts: 1675
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:50 pm

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Mon Jul 05, 2021 2:20 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Jul 05, 2021 2:10 pm
tom p wrote:
Mon Jul 05, 2021 2:05 pm
Fishnut wrote:
Mon Jul 05, 2021 1:59 pm
A question - given that we've shown ourselves to be completely incapable of abiding by the terms of an agreement that we were boasting about securing only a few months ago, why on earth would any other country try and work out a trade deal with us? We've shown ourselves to either entirely dishonest or completely incompetent, never of which will have people climbing over each other to work with us.
Exactly. It's why plodder's trolling is just pointless - he's not clever or funny and he doesn't have an answer to that 'cos there isn't one.
And yet, the negotiations with other states are still happening.
The deals are being signed. Many people have their blinkers on - I can understand why but it's not helpful for the discussion.

tom p
Dorkwood
Posts: 1211
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:14 pm
Location: the low countries

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by tom p » Mon Jul 05, 2021 2:25 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Jul 05, 2021 2:10 pm
tom p wrote:
Mon Jul 05, 2021 2:05 pm
Fishnut wrote:
Mon Jul 05, 2021 1:59 pm
A question - given that we've shown ourselves to be completely incapable of abiding by the terms of an agreement that we were boasting about securing only a few months ago, why on earth would any other country try and work out a trade deal with us? We've shown ourselves to either entirely dishonest or completely incompetent, never of which will have people climbing over each other to work with us.
Exactly. It's why plodder's trolling is just pointless - he's not clever or funny and he doesn't have an answer to that 'cos there isn't one.
And yet, the negotiations with other states are still happening.
Of course they are. Negotiations cost nothing, deals take years* & Johnsons won't be in office for ever, but anything that might affect a significant portion of any country's economy is going to want watertight guarantees that it will actually be respected & certain sectors will not be open for discussion (as you mentioned in your reply to fishnut).
*unless one side is desperate to do a deal, any deal (as with the Oz one) or you're just copying and posting old deals (as with the others signed thus far.

plodder
After Pie
Posts: 1675
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:50 pm

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Mon Jul 05, 2021 2:50 pm

Well, it's easy enough to find out how that will pan out - we just have to wait. In the meantime, there's a mince war to fight.

philbo
Sindis Poop
Posts: 78
Joined: Sun Feb 23, 2020 11:06 am

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by philbo » Mon Jul 05, 2021 3:28 pm

plodder wrote:
Mon Jul 05, 2021 2:50 pm
Well, it's easy enough to find out how that will pan out - we just have to wait. In the meantime, there's a mince war to fight.
Our mince spies were deployed in December

User avatar
Bird on a Fire
Princess POW
Posts: 6858
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:05 pm
Location: Portugal

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Bird on a Fire » Mon Jul 05, 2021 5:38 pm

plodder wrote:
Mon Jul 05, 2021 2:17 pm
It's also worth remembering that if the EU introduce tariffs on NI specifically this will only raise tensions in the area.
Does anybody expect them to? UK-wide tariffs seem far likelier - NI is basically in the single market now. Plus it's the UK that signed and broke the Withdrawal Agreement, etc etc.

Seeing as there's no border on the island of Ireland, per the Good Friday Agreement and Withdrawal Agreement Northern Ireland Protocol, I don't see where they could impose NI-only tariffs in the first place even if they were stupid enough to want to, which I doubt (so far it's been the UK inflaming tensions through insensitivity).
He has the grace of a swan, the wisdom of an owl, and the eye of an eagle—ladies and gentlemen, this man is for the birds!

plodder
After Pie
Posts: 1675
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:50 pm

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Mon Jul 05, 2021 8:34 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Mon Jul 05, 2021 5:38 pm
plodder wrote:
Mon Jul 05, 2021 2:17 pm
It's also worth remembering that if the EU introduce tariffs on NI specifically this will only raise tensions in the area.
Does anybody expect them to? UK-wide tariffs seem far likelier - NI is basically in the single market now. Plus it's the UK that signed and broke the Withdrawal Agreement, etc etc.

Seeing as there's no border on the island of Ireland, per the Good Friday Agreement and Withdrawal Agreement Northern Ireland Protocol, I don't see where they could impose NI-only tariffs in the first place even if they were stupid enough to want to, which I doubt (so far it's been the UK inflaming tensions through insensitivity).
I take your point - what I meant to say was that they need to be careful any actions don't inflame the situation there. Anything that impedes the flow of goods from rUK to NI by definition impacts NI, and of course the story for the domestic audience will be that UK gov are doing everything they can to prevent it - including threatening unilateral action. It's all a bit delicate and needs to be played out carefully. I don't think clumsy strong-arm tactics will work.

tom p
Dorkwood
Posts: 1211
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:14 pm
Location: the low countries

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by tom p » Tue Jul 06, 2021 8:36 am

philbo wrote:
Mon Jul 05, 2021 3:28 pm
plodder wrote:
Mon Jul 05, 2021 2:50 pm
Well, it's easy enough to find out how that will pan out - we just have to wait. In the meantime, there's a mince war to fight.
Our mince spies were deployed in December
Sadly, none survived.
*wipes crumbs from mouth*

User avatar
El Pollo Diablo
After Pie
Posts: 2008
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:41 pm
Location: FBPE

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Tue Jul 06, 2021 9:05 am

I think the Norn Iron debacle won't stop other states from signing trade deals with us but, like Australia, instead they'll sign rubbish trade deals with us that are much better for them than us. The UK government is currently so desperate for good trade news that they'll accede to much more from non-EU countries than they might otherwise. After signing a deal, most countries are keen to talk about the benefits for their businesses selling abroad - and whisky, biscuits and ceramics to Australia is such a boon for the UK economy - but the UK focused instead on the huge savings to the UK public of importing Australian produce (£1 per household per year - spend it wisely).
Cinch?
Cinch!
Cinch?
Cinch?!
Cinch*
<Cinch>
-Cinch-
"Cinch"
Cinch.

User avatar
Woodchopper
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3975
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Jul 06, 2021 9:42 am

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 9:05 am
I think the Norn Iron debacle won't stop other states from signing trade deals with us but, like Australia, instead they'll sign rubbish trade deals with us that are much better for them than us. The UK government is currently so desperate for good trade news that they'll accede to much more from non-EU countries than they might otherwise. After signing a deal, most countries are keen to talk about the benefits for their businesses selling abroad - and whisky, biscuits and ceramics to Australia is such a boon for the UK economy - but the UK focused instead on the huge savings to the UK public of importing Australian produce (£1 per household per year - spend it wisely).
I agree. For the UK there is a tradeoff between a good trade agreement and a quick trade agreement. The way to get quick deals is to agree with what the other side wants.

plodder
After Pie
Posts: 1675
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:50 pm

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Tue Jul 06, 2021 10:18 am

No, that's a fundamental misreading of what's happening. We're signing trade deals with small and medium sized low-regulation economies because we're transitioning into very large low-regulation economy. This is a deliberate direction of travel and it's why there was lobbying for Brexit in the first place. We are taking pole position in a race to the bottom in order to encourage money to slosh around with as little impedance as possible.

User avatar
Bird on a Fire
Princess POW
Posts: 6858
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:05 pm
Location: Portugal

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Jul 06, 2021 10:23 am

Yes, it might not matter so much if nobody trusts the UK to stick to rules and regulations, if all the deals they're seeking are about removing rules and regulations anyway. I'm sure that's a big part of the UK's blasé approach here.

Probably not great news for people who produce things for export, like farmers and fishers and factories, but it's on brand for the people who funded and fought for brexit.
He has the grace of a swan, the wisdom of an owl, and the eye of an eagle—ladies and gentlemen, this man is for the birds!

plodder
After Pie
Posts: 1675
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:50 pm

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Tue Jul 06, 2021 12:00 pm

Several key Brexiteers have repeatedly mentioned that UK manufacturing / many exports can be very inefficient and if they need to collapse for the good of the economy then that's better than propping them up with endless inefficient subsidies.

By removing the safety net they intend to force the owners and managers in these sectors to provide investment and innovation, or they end up with nothing. Unless these trade deals are seen through this prism it's entirely understandable that many people find the UK's stance confusing.

We're going to be ultra-competitive.

User avatar
veravista
Snowbonk
Posts: 567
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:29 pm
Location: Directly above the centre of the earth

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by veravista » Tue Jul 06, 2021 12:52 pm

plodder wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 12:00 pm
Several key Brexiteers have repeatedly mentioned that UK manufacturing / many exports can be very inefficient and if they need to collapse for the good of the economy then that's better than propping them up with endless inefficient subsidies.

By removing the safety net they intend to force the owners and managers in these sectors to provide investment and innovation, or they end up with nothing. Unless these trade deals are seen through this prism it's entirely understandable that many people find the UK's stance confusing.

We're going to be ultra-competitive.
Hahahahaahhahahhaaha

plodder
After Pie
Posts: 1675
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:50 pm

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Tue Jul 06, 2021 1:35 pm

That's the plan, Stan.

It's obviously been devised by and is being delivered by complete half-wits, but that's the plan.

User avatar
Opti
Catbabel
Posts: 908
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 11:21 pm
Location: Got a home right by the sea.

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Opti » Tue Jul 06, 2021 1:36 pm

veravista wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 12:52 pm
plodder wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 12:00 pm
Several key Brexiteers have ...
Hahahahaahhahahhaaha
That is the exact antithesis of everything I was parroting back in the 70's when I was active in the IMG (International Marxist Group).
About as utopian and doomed to failure too. As well as ideologically fruitcake.
Time for a big fat one.

User avatar
Bird on a Fire
Princess POW
Posts: 6858
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:05 pm
Location: Portugal

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Jul 06, 2021 1:39 pm

plodder wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 1:35 pm
That's the plan, Stan.

It's obviously been devised by and is being delivered by complete half-wits, but that's the plan.
Yes, I think you're right. I expect the intention is to head towards something more like the USA in terms of low regulations, but without the huge state support given to key industries.
He has the grace of a swan, the wisdom of an owl, and the eye of an eagle—ladies and gentlemen, this man is for the birds!

plodder
After Pie
Posts: 1675
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:50 pm

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Tue Jul 06, 2021 2:35 pm

Singapore is the model they all love.

User avatar
veravista
Snowbonk
Posts: 567
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:29 pm
Location: Directly above the centre of the earth

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by veravista » Tue Jul 06, 2021 2:48 pm

And of course Singapore is a wonderful place. Clean, efficient with a fabulous public transport system, lovely hotels and attractions. On the down side it's horrifically expensive and if you are part of the service sector you can look forward to living in slums or factory unit dormitory's...

plodder
After Pie
Posts: 1675
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:50 pm

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:16 pm

Playing devil's advocate, what kind of utopian paradise was Singapore like before deregulation?

Specifically, what types of deregulation did they focus on? Do you have any metrics to support your position that it was a terrible idea?

Apologies in advance for this blatant and feeble trolling which isn't in any way trying to understand why you think the way you do.

User avatar
El Pollo Diablo
After Pie
Posts: 2008
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:41 pm
Location: FBPE

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:43 pm

Singapore is such an amazingly poor comparator against the UK, it's amazing any Tories actually believe it's applicable.
Cinch?
Cinch!
Cinch?
Cinch?!
Cinch*
<Cinch>
-Cinch-
"Cinch"
Cinch.

User avatar
veravista
Snowbonk
Posts: 567
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:29 pm
Location: Directly above the centre of the earth

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by veravista » Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:51 pm

No idea what it was like before deregulation, but my Dad was there just after the war and got an STD.

Why am I so sceptical about our future? I have worked in the engineering industry on and off since 1975, and apart from a couple of hi tech exceptions it has suffered continuously from poor management, lack of investment in personnel and equipment and a total lack of interest from the government. I worked for many years as an CEng assessor for the Institute of Engineering Designers and the UK based candidates all but dried up towards the end of my time, it was mostly Asian and Eastern Europeans - the industry is just not seen as having a future by many graduates and now that the vocational training schools and real apprenticeships have effectively gone it will only get worse unless there is a concerted effort to reverse this trend.

Unfortunately (or fortunately) most of the decent industry here is now wholly or part foreign owned with Japanese and German management influences coming to the fore - and this allows a cooperative management style rather than the traditional UK confrontational version. Unless this changes exploitation of the workforce (Singapore style) is the only answer but unless the UK finds some way to change it's productivity it'll be easier to import stuff.

plodder
After Pie
Posts: 1675
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:50 pm

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by plodder » Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:56 pm

ok, so to take this to (what a free marketer would call) its logical conclusion, why encourage new engineers in the UK? Why prop up a dying industry? why not encourage all these maths whizzes to be bankers instead?

User avatar
Bird on a Fire
Princess POW
Posts: 6858
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:05 pm
Location: Portugal

Re: Brexit Consequences

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Jul 06, 2021 4:08 pm

As I understand it, having a diverse economy is good for resilience against future shocks (of which there are probably a lot more coming).

Singapore's economy is a 75:25% split between services and industry, which is actually more diverse than the UK's at 80:20. So to emulate Singapore, the UK needs to expand its industrial sector.

Singapore also does a lot of trade with its nearest neighbours like China, Hong Kong and Malaysia, so the UK should aim not to piss off any nearby trading blocks.

All going swimmingly, then.
He has the grace of a swan, the wisdom of an owl, and the eye of an eagle—ladies and gentlemen, this man is for the birds!

Post Reply