Summer Solstice Unlockdown
- Bird on a Fire
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
My sister reports low mask use in her area of London (the elephant), plus a confusing bunch of people voluntarily wearing masks but not covering their noses. Nowt as queer as folk.
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.
- Tessa K
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
Quite a few people up here in North London do the 'mask only over the mouth' style. But then, perhaps they're all mouth breathers.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Sat Jul 24, 2021 12:33 pmMy sister reports low mask use in her area of London (the elephant), plus a confusing bunch of people voluntarily wearing masks but not covering their noses. Nowt as queer as folk.
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- After Pie
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
It's not completely insane. If you believe the coronavirus is spread by droplets, then your nose is fairly harmless as the exhaled air stream is pointed downwards, while air from your mouth is propelled forwards, so needs a mask. While we all know that it's spread by aerosols, there has been so much emphasis on droplets - especially the 1m/2m/6foot rule - that it's understandable that some people believe it.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Sat Jul 24, 2021 12:33 pma confusing bunch of people voluntarily wearing masks but not covering their noses.
- bob sterman
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
I can pretty much guarantee nearly all "mouth maskers" have given no thought to the aerosol vs droplet issue.Millennie Al wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 1:38 amIt's not completely insane. If you believe the coronavirus is spread by droplets, then your nose is fairly harmless as the exhaled air stream is pointed downwards, while air from your mouth is propelled forwards, so needs a mask. While we all know that it's spread by aerosols, there has been so much emphasis on droplets - especially the 1m/2m/6foot rule - that it's understandable that some people believe it.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Sat Jul 24, 2021 12:33 pma confusing bunch of people voluntarily wearing masks but not covering their noses.
- Tessa K
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
Good thread here about yesterday's anti-vax, anti-lockdown demo in Trafalgar Square citing some of the bollix the speakers said. f.cking terrifying.
https://twitter.com/Shayan86/status/1418915810416934915
https://twitter.com/Shayan86/status/1418915810416934915
- shpalman
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
It doesn't explain the confusing group of people who voluntarily wear a mask on the bus, but under their chin. I kind of get the not covering the nose thing. That group of people have always existed. Up until now I'd always assumed the the 'under the chin' group of people were just breaking the rules because they didn't want to wear a mask. But now they don't have to wear a mask and their are still wearing it under their chin anyway.bob sterman wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 7:44 amI can pretty much guarantee nearly all "mouth maskers" have given no thought to the aerosol vs droplet issue.Millennie Al wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 1:38 amIt's not completely insane. If you believe the coronavirus is spread by droplets, then your nose is fairly harmless as the exhaled air stream is pointed downwards, while air from your mouth is propelled forwards, so needs a mask. While we all know that it's spread by aerosols, there has been so much emphasis on droplets - especially the 1m/2m/6foot rule - that it's understandable that some people believe it.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Sat Jul 24, 2021 12:33 pma confusing bunch of people voluntarily wearing masks but not covering their noses.
Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
Sarcastic mask wearing
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!
- Bird on a Fire
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
The man in the ironic mask?
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.
- bob sterman
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
Are you sure you weren't just tricked by one of these "Wearing Mask On Bottom of Chin Illusion" masks?OffTheRock wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 4:10 pmIt doesn't explain the confusing group of people who voluntarily wear a mask on the bus, but under their chin. I kind of get the not covering the nose thing. That group of people have always existed. Up until now I'd always assumed the the 'under the chin' group of people were just breaking the rules because they didn't want to wear a mask. But now they don't have to wear a mask and their are still wearing it under their chin anyway.
https://maskalike.com/products/mask-on- ... n-illusion
As the blurb says "It looks like you're wearing your mask wrong (aka being a "chin masker"). But it's actually on right! Wear it to surprise and amuse people around you."
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- After Pie
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
I'd guess that some, if challenged would say that they were wearing a mask, and others just want to be close enough to wearing a mask that they can rapidly re-position it, making challenging them tiresome as you know that they'll just move it again soon - unlike someone who has been forced to go and get a mask.OffTheRock wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 4:10 pmIt doesn't explain the confusing group of people who voluntarily wear a mask on the bus, but under their chin. I kind of get the not covering the nose thing.
- snoozeofreason
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
One of the more prominent speakers was Kate Shemirani. I heard her son interviewed on Radio 4 this meeting, and it was all very sad. It sounds as if he grew with all this conspiracy stuff, but escaped his mother's influence at 17 by winning a scholarship to a private boarding school, and is now completely estranged from her. It's about the only time that I have ever had any positive feelings about private boarding schools though.Tessa K wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 10:27 amGood thread here about yesterday's anti-vax, anti-lockdown demo in Trafalgar Square citing some of the bollix the speakers said. f.cking terrifying.
https://twitter.com/Shayan86/status/1418915810416934915
In six days the Lord made the heavens and the earth, the sea, and all that is in them. The human body was knocked up pretty late on the Friday afternoon, with a deadline looming. How well do you expect it to work?
- Tessa K
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
I suspect they pull it up if they see an inspector get on. If they can pull it up - wearing it under the chin stretrches the elastic so it may not stay up anyway.Millennie Al wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 1:45 amI'd guess that some, if challenged would say that they were wearing a mask, and others just want to be close enough to wearing a mask that they can rapidly re-position it, making challenging them tiresome as you know that they'll just move it again soon - unlike someone who has been forced to go and get a mask.OffTheRock wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 4:10 pmIt doesn't explain the confusing group of people who voluntarily wear a mask on the bus, but under their chin. I kind of get the not covering the nose thing.
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
just had a message to all clients from my vets, saying that they're keeping mask wearing and other covid protocols in place
but have had clients abusing their staff because of this - seriously? how can people be such utter a..eholes?
they're sticking to their guns though, and have 'withdrawn services' from certain clients
I'll be buying food and accessories from their branch much more in future
but have had clients abusing their staff because of this - seriously? how can people be such utter a..eholes?
they're sticking to their guns though, and have 'withdrawn services' from certain clients
I'll be buying food and accessories from their branch much more in future
Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
Our vets have had to say the same throughout the last year. They had a message on the phone saying that there was a zero tolerance approach to abuse of staff.Hunting Dog wrote: ↑Thu Jul 29, 2021 6:05 pmjust had a message to all clients from my vets, saying that they're keeping mask wearing and other covid protocols in place
but have had clients abusing their staff because of this - seriously? how can people be such utter a..eholes?
they're sticking to their guns though, and have 'withdrawn services' from certain clients
I'll be buying food and accessories from their branch much more in future
- Woodchopper
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
Possible indication that the recent uptick in cases was the consequence of the 19 July reopening.
Obviously it’s all speculative until we get more data.
https://twitter.com/jamesward73/status/ ... 90567?s=21
I think we have our first clear signal of a “Step 4” effect in today’s reported case data. While growth is flat in older age groups (>40s), and maybe even still falling in under-15s (a schools effect?), it’s picking back up in the young adult (15-40) group.
[...]
Looking –as usual- at the 20-24s, with no averaging, we can see a very clear reversal of the growth trend. That final datapoint on 27th July is incomplete so is very likely to go above the red line i.e. back into week-on-week growth, once the full data is filled in.
[...]
Why is this? The simplest explanation is that we’re seeing the impact of the first weekend after “Freedom Day”, with clubs / parties / festivals etc. leading to more infections. The timing fits, with Friday night’s infections being reported on a Tuesday specimen day.
[...]
There’s no clear differentiation in male & female case rates this time, but there is a bit of a split by region, with a stronger pick-up in growth in the Midlands (East and West), South East and South West, and weaker signals in London and the North West (more immunity??).
[...]
The important questions now are: how far does this pick-up in growth go? How long does it last? And does it spread into other age groups, or stay concentrated in the 15-30s? There’s no reason at all to panic, but we do need to keep a close eye on this.
Obviously it’s all speculative until we get more data.
Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
? There's no uptick in cases. The data is inherently noisy, two or three days of data doesn't provide a signal. I can't trust any twitterer who spins lengthy narratives from tossing three tails in a row.
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- Woodchopper
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- shpalman
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
Alternatively are we sure there was even a downtick? How many days in a row was that?
Still you're right that we should wait a week or so to be sure which way it's going.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
By date reported the recent peak was 54,674 on 17 July.
It’s been lower for the last 12 days. Yesterday’s count was 31 117.
I think we can assume a trend, though of course one that could be reversed.
I agree, best to wait for a week of data before assuming any other trend.
Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
Quite, we had two or three days of falling cases and suspected it was mad random noise, then it kept going for 10 days or so, and we had a couple of crazy "halved in a week" numbers that we assumed were anomalies, then two or three days when it's only down 20% from the previous week...
Also when there's vast amounts of data people are lured into cherry picking, e.g. taking 20-24 and comparing London to the South West and spinning a narrative about how nightclubs on a Friday night are different in Leeds compared to Manchester and how dog ownership rates in Sunderland leads to....
Also when there's vast amounts of data people are lured into cherry picking, e.g. taking 20-24 and comparing London to the South West and spinning a narrative about how nightclubs on a Friday night are different in Leeds compared to Manchester and how dog ownership rates in Sunderland leads to....
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
Best of all, wait for the ONS survey to avoid artefacts from changes to testing patterns.
- Woodchopper
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
The excellent John Burn Murdoch on the relationship between the ONS numbers and the daily cases numbers: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status ... 54307?s=21
ETA ONS numbers here: https://twitter.com/ons/status/1421065864418406400?s=21
ETA ONS numbers here: https://twitter.com/ons/status/1421065864418406400?s=21
- wilsontown
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Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
Following today's update, the 7 day average in cases peaked on July 18th at nigh on 48,000, and has fallen every day since. But the rate of fall has slowed down.
"All models are wrong but some are useful" - George Box
Re: Summer Solstice Unlockdown
Cases have started falling again. I shall explain this one day trend in the following tweets. (1/226)
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