Vaccine rollout in Italy

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shpalman
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Sun Sep 19, 2021 8:01 pm

But anyway, Italy now has a higher proportion of its whole population fully vaccinated than the UK dose.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Sun Sep 19, 2021 8:21 pm

Ah ok maybe it has something to do with the 4.4 million people who have recovered from covid only needing one dose of a two-dose vaccine or something, such that there are 4.4 million vaccine doses which I've been considering as second doses which are actually first doses.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by Herainestold » Sun Sep 19, 2021 9:18 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 8:01 pm
But anyway, Italy now has a higher proportion of its whole population fully vaccinated than the UK dose.
Excellent. The EU in general is really doing much better now that supply has stabilized.
Get vaccinated. Wear your mask. Keep distancing. Test twice a week. Work from home. Don't mix households. Avoid crowds. Open your windows. Don't go dancing. Get your booster.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Mon Sep 20, 2021 6:54 am

I don't believe it the Italian vaccination rollout page now has the "at least one dose" total on it, as of an update this morning. Yeah it's 44.3 million and I've been calculating it wrong.

This change was made so that also the number of third doses can be included.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:02 am

Herainestold wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 9:18 pm
shpalman wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 8:01 pm
But anyway, Italy now has a higher proportion of its whole population fully vaccinated than the UK dose.
Excellent. The EU in general is really doing much better now that supply has stabilized.
We've all managed to vaccinate just about everyone who wants to be vaccinated and are now trying to find ways to persuade more people.

Turns out "less chance of dying" isn't a good enough reason on its own for some people.

Italy's CFR is still maybe about 1%, compared to 0.4% in the UK, which means we'd have at least double the death rate if we let cases do what the UK let them do. This is probably because our coverage is more spread across the age range with significant proportions of older people unprotected.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Mon Sep 20, 2021 5:43 pm

Lots of people who presumably "did their own research" until now have been to get vaccinated today so as to be able to carry on doing their jobs next month.

One guy said "well, rather than dying of hunger..."

Well if it works on morons who didn't care about dying of the virus, then it works.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Mon Sep 20, 2021 5:48 pm

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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Fri Sep 24, 2021 2:59 pm

Some screengrabs from the latest weekly press conference on the regional monitoring.

Incidence per 100,000 in young people as a function of date shows the cases were concentrated in the 16-19 age range in July but is similar across all children now, which maybe means it's higher in the younger children than you'd expect.
2021-09-24_incidence-age-ranges.png
2021-09-24_incidence-age-ranges.png (315.2 KiB) Viewed 472 times
Vaccine coverage isn't too bad:
2021-09-24_vaccine-coverage.png
2021-09-24_vaccine-coverage.png (237.11 KiB) Viewed 472 times
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Fri Sep 24, 2021 3:56 pm

There's an interesting set of graphs towards the bottom of the GEDI Visual vaccination page.
2021-09-24_GEDI-vax-coverage.png
2021-09-24_GEDI-vax-coverage.png (372.17 KiB) Viewed 467 times
In each age range they show the proportion unvaccinated (blue), unfully vaccinated (pink), and fully vaccinated (yellow) for the following categories (left to right): the population as a whole, the new covid cases, the cases taken to hospital*, the cases in intensive care, and the deaths. So it's clear how the blue proportion is over-represented as compared to the proportion in the general population.

* - "ricoverati" doesn't mean "recovered" from covid, which would be "recuperare" rather than "ricoverare", it means admitted to hospital.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Mon Oct 04, 2021 9:32 pm

Getting closer to 80% of the 12-and-overs fully vaccinated, such reach that threshold next week.

Cases have been decreasing steadily for about a month and are currently at about 35/100,000/week on average in Italy but the effect of schools opening is probably going to start showing up now because the decrease seems to have slowed.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Thu Oct 28, 2021 2:04 pm

Well, schools opened in mid September and not much happened; the obvious goinguppiness started about 10 days ago shortly after work-from-home (or "smart working" as the Italians call it using the wrong English words for some f.cking reason) was officially not allowed anymore.

Doesn't help that there are 1.6 million f.cking morons in the 50-59 age range who would prefer to get the disease and clog up the hospitals because forcing people to get the vaccine to be able to go to work is extortion but the fact that the state hasn't actually made covid vaccination obligatory is a sign that it doesn't think it's safe and/or isn't willing to stand behind any possible side effects because the government as disgusting cowards or some other b.llsh.t like that.

There'll be a few hundred thousand in the 60-69 age range who aren't vaccinated but are still working, too. But as of now anyone 60 and above (I think) in Lombardy can start booking their third dose if it's been more than 6 months since their second one. And some other rule for J&J, I can't remember if they get a second J&J dose or an mRNA dose, and I certainly don't remember hearing anything about what AZ recipients will get, and when, but I'm fairly sure that will be an mRNA too.

(It's ~5.5 months since my second AZ dose but as yet it doesn't seem like there'll be a special track for education workers etc. as there was in the spring).
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Thu Oct 28, 2021 2:10 pm

Oh and it's also obvious that things are worse in terms of case rates in Friuli-Venezia-Giulia, which happens to have a border with eastern Europe, specifically Slovenia, and Slovenia in common with a lot of eastern European states has low vaccination coverage and spiking case rates.

Things in Lombardy are relatively ok.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by Herainestold » Thu Oct 28, 2021 2:33 pm

An oft overlooked point is not just vaccination rate, but vaccination take up in older more vulnerable demographics, like over 50s.
it doesn't take that many sick people to overwhelm hospitals.

I think Italy will likely be okay as there is high community immunity from previous waves and a good vaccination rate.

It looks like the next wave is advancing from Eastern Europe and the Baltics. It is way too soon to relax restrictions.
Get vaccinated. Wear your mask. Keep distancing. Test twice a week. Work from home. Don't mix households. Avoid crowds. Open your windows. Don't go dancing. Get your booster.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Thu Oct 28, 2021 4:40 pm

Oh and it's also because Trieste keeps have anti-Green-Pass protests.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by Lydia Gwilt » Fri Oct 29, 2021 11:35 am

THere are a lot of idiots in Trieste - some of it is "the Government can't tell me what to do because are/we should be independent of Rome", some of it is crunchy granola jerks and some is just common or garden jerks. And some just treat it as a form of street theatre. - Numpties the lot of them

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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Fri Oct 29, 2021 12:56 pm

This says that for every vaccinated person over the age of 30 admitted to hospital, there are 13 non-vaccinated.

Instead, the probability of finding someone infected amongst the non-vaccinated is 8 times higher as compared to the vaccinated population.

So I don't know how the f.ck the UK is essentially ending up with roughly equal infection rates between vaccinated and non-vaccinated.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by jdc » Fri Oct 29, 2021 2:15 pm

shpalman wrote:
Fri Oct 29, 2021 12:56 pm
This says that for every vaccinated person over the age of 30 admitted to hospital, there are 13 non-vaccinated.

Instead, the probability of finding someone infected amongst the non-vaccinated is 8 times higher as compared to the vaccinated population.

So I don't know how the f.ck the UK is essentially ending up with roughly equal infection rates between vaccinated and non-vaccinated.
No idea but I'm willing to make up some total guesses. If we've mainly vaccinated older, less healthy people with shitter immune systems then we've vaccinated the group most susceptible to breakthrough infections? Or maybe it's to do with us using an inferior British vaccine? Or having vaccinated people long enough ago that waning means we have a fuckton of people who are no longer protected from infection?

I saw a tweet yesterday that reckoned we had 4x the hospitalisations of Italy and 10x the cases (think the figures might have been for last week, can't find the tweet now to check). Which would suggest that whatever we've done has been better at preventing serious illness than infection. I reckon vaccinating mainly older people a long time ago with something British-made might fit.

Or maybe vaccinated Brits are more reckless than vaccinated non-Brits? Are our vaccinees running round licking door handles and asking people to cough in their faces? Wouldn't put it past them tbh.

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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Fri Oct 29, 2021 2:36 pm

That does match up a bit with my estimates of ~0.4% CFR for the UK and ~1% for Italy. Certainly the coverage here in the older age groups is a bit patchy.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Wed Nov 10, 2021 3:29 pm

Moratti reckons that 95% of the patients in hospital* here in Lombardy aren't vaccinated.

* - presumably she means 95% of the patients in hospital because of covid.

Meanwhile, there are 488 doctors and nurses under suspension for not being vaccinated (while 502 have got back to work following vaccination).

(From what I remember back when the national dashboard indicated vaccinations by category and not just age group, there may be of the order of 100,000 "health workers" in Lombardy, most of whom were vaccinated in January.)
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Wed Nov 10, 2021 6:05 pm

The health minister (whose name is Speranza, which means "hope") said today that starting on the 1st of December the third dose will be offered to the 40-60 age range (if they had the second dose more than six months ago). Which is the category I'll be in by then.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by Lydia Gwilt » Fri Nov 12, 2021 9:34 am

I am due to get my booster in a couple of hours, hurrah! Am slightly concerned about Ozyas Midwinter as he got a pretty heavy reaction to #2 and I am going away for a few days - he'll just have to crawl out of bed and make his own chicken soup!

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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Wed Nov 17, 2021 6:50 pm

As I've said in some other thread, I should be able to book my booster as of tomorrow and receive it starting at the beginning of December. We'll see how either of those things actually work out. The Region (Lombardy) has been talking about setting up vaccination hubs at a couple of Milan metro stations and in supermarkets. I hope I'll be able to go to the old hospital just up the road.

In other news Italy registered more than 10,000 new covids today so the 7-day average per 100,000 is more than 90. The doubling time might be about two weeks or so. I think hospital occupancy is somewhere around 10%. There's an average of 60 deaths per day which will of course keep increasing: I'm estimating a 1.3% CFR with a two week lag so ~130 deaths in a couple of weeks from now.

But this time last year we had a peak of about 40,000 new covids per day followed by average of more than 700 deaths per day.

Lombardy is doing a bit better than average, with cases at 80/100,000/week, but coming up faster from a lower level.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Wed Nov 17, 2021 7:46 pm

Well I just booked my third dose for midday on Sunday, at the old hospital up the road.
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Re: Vaccine rollout in Italy

Post by shpalman » Thu Nov 25, 2021 10:20 am

Third dosing opens up to 18-and-over on the 1st of December here; it's also possible for people who booked their booster for 6 months after their second dose to move it to 5 months even if it's better not to because it's not clear that you'll actually get an earlier appointment.

It might get even busier on the booking portal when it opens up to the 5-11 age group for first doses.
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