Hang on, labour lost 14.8% in 2019. Who do you think they lost them to?lpm wrote: ↑Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:22 pmThe gain in 2017 was 2015's UKIP voters wandering around, approx a quarter going back to Labour, a quarter going to Conservative and a half staying with UKIP.
- LAB went up from 36% to 53%, so as you say +17%
- CON went up from 21% to 34%, gaining +13%
- UKIP retained 12% of the vote share
Then in 2019 Brexit Party came to play in Hartlepool instead of UKIP. LAB lost 14.8% but CON also lost 5%. Labour won the seat because of the old CON-UKIP split that for some reason Hartlepool continued in 2019 instead of going for Boris like most of the rest of the red wall.
- In 2019 CON and Brexit Party won a combined 55%
- In the 2021 by-election, CON and Brexit Party won a combined 52%
- CON captured the seat in 2021, because the split moved from 29% CON/26% Brexit Party to 52% CON/0% Brexit Party
Are you suggesting that when UKIP voters wander into Labour, then wander out to BXP 2 years later, that brexit is not a significant factor?
I find that very hard to believe. Doesn't chime with what any of my vaguely working class midlands or northern relatives thought/think either.