US Election 2024
- El Pollo Diablo
- Stummy Beige
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US Election 2024
Might as well start discussing this now - the US election process does take up most of each democratic cycle after all.
If truth is many-sided, mendacity is many-tongued
- El Pollo Diablo
- Stummy Beige
- Posts: 3335
- Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:41 pm
- Location: FBPE
- El Pollo Diablo
- Stummy Beige
- Posts: 3335
- Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:41 pm
- Location: FBPE
Re: US Election 2024
I for one can't wait for the next fivethirtyeight election calculator
If truth is many-sided, mendacity is many-tongued
- Bird on a Fire
- Princess POW
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Re: US Election 2024
It'll be Harris v Trump.
Too early to say how it'll go.
Too early to say how it'll go.
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.
Re: US Election 2024
Harris v Cruz v Trump (running as a 3rd party from jail).
- Bird on a Fire
- Princess POW
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Re: US Election 2024
I'm pretty sure he's not going to jail.
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.
Re: US Election 2024
OK, exile then.
- Bird on a Fire
- Princess POW
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Re: US Election 2024
Lol. For what?
AFAIAA the only thing he's being investigated for is dodgy tax stuff, which as the Pandora papers etc. show is business-as-usual for billionaires - so depressingly unremarkable that we don't even have a thread on it. How many US billionaires have been jailed or exiled for tax stuff lately?
Then bear in mind that the Democrats are going to want to avoid the optics of looking like they're persecuting (a) a recent former president, and (b) a future presidential candidate.
He's going to live out his days in comfort in Mar a Lago, with a possible second stint in the White House.
AFAIAA the only thing he's being investigated for is dodgy tax stuff, which as the Pandora papers etc. show is business-as-usual for billionaires - so depressingly unremarkable that we don't even have a thread on it. How many US billionaires have been jailed or exiled for tax stuff lately?
Then bear in mind that the Democrats are going to want to avoid the optics of looking like they're persecuting (a) a recent former president, and (b) a future presidential candidate.
He's going to live out his days in comfort in Mar a Lago, with a possible second stint in the White House.
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.
Re: US Election 2024
I don't think Trump will be back. Cruz will get background help from the more effective Trump strategists and possibly give Ivanka a role in his team as a sign to the die-hard Trump fans that he's 'carrying on the legacy'.
Cruz will drop most of the populist economic nationalism of Trump/Bannon and get the corporate sector back onside. The left will never vote republican anyway. Noisy peacocking about how he's fighting the culture war without any business problems with China for the big donors. That will probably be enough.
Cruz will drop most of the populist economic nationalism of Trump/Bannon and get the corporate sector back onside. The left will never vote republican anyway. Noisy peacocking about how he's fighting the culture war without any business problems with China for the big donors. That will probably be enough.
- Bird on a Fire
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Re: US Election 2024
I'm wondering if AOC will make her first run for the Democratic nomination in 2024, or leave it for later.
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.
Re: US Election 2024
Hopefully later. 2028 will either be against the last vestiges of Trumpism, or against the first reasonable* Republican candidate of the post Trumpism era. A far less divisive candidate would have a better chance in both cases.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:47 pmI'm wondering if AOC will make her first run for the Democratic nomination in 2024, or leave it for later.
Or went happen at all.
*As far as centrist possibly swingy voters are concerned.
Re: US Election 2024
We've got mid terms to get through first.
It will be Biden, unless something happens to him. There will be no serious challenges.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:47 pmI'm wondering if AOC will make her first run for the Democratic nomination in 2024, or leave it for later.
- Bird on a Fire
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Re: US Election 2024
It's not all about winning, though. Sanders et al successfully changed the debate, and his popularity with under-40s was probably a factor in Biden's last-minute adoption of some climate policies.monkey wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 3:19 pmWe've got mid terms to get through first.
It will be Biden, unless something happens to him. There will be no serious challenges.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:47 pmI'm wondering if AOC will make her first run for the Democratic nomination in 2024, or leave it for later.
Just because the old white men generally have the game sewn up doesn't mean that other voices can't make useful contributions to shaping policy, and there seems to be a pretty significant generation split that AOC et al understand quite well.
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.
Re: US Election 2024
I agree that it's important that Left and Left leaning voices get heard. It's just I think it's very unlikely that AOC will decide that running against an incumbent president who is already listening to them is a good way to do it.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 3:59 pmIt's not all about winning, though. Sanders et al successfully changed the debate, and his popularity with under-40s was probably a factor in Biden's last-minute adoption of some climate policies.monkey wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 3:19 pmWe've got mid terms to get through first.
It will be Biden, unless something happens to him. There will be no serious challenges.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:47 pmI'm wondering if AOC will make her first run for the Democratic nomination in 2024, or leave it for later.
Just because the old white men generally have the game sewn up doesn't mean that other voices can't make useful contributions to shaping policy, and there seems to be a pretty significant generation split that AOC et al understand quite well.
- Bird on a Fire
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Re: US Election 2024
Good time to do a practice run, I'd say.
With the obvious caveat that I don't know what I'm talking about
With the obvious caveat that I don't know what I'm talking about
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.
Re: US Election 2024
Realistically, any candidate for President needs some experience of elected executive office. Even Sanders has that, as mayor of Burlington. Trump obviously didn't, and failed at some of the things he tried to do because of that.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 4:16 pmGood time to do a practice run, I'd say.
With the obvious caveat that I don't know what I'm talking about
Remember, the president is not a legislator, and they do not have the power to change the law, or even to introduce laws (unlike the Prime Minister).
Re: US Election 2024
Here's a list - wiki clickydyqik wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 5:55 pmRealistically, any candidate for President needs some experience of elected executive office. Even Sanders has that, as mayor of Burlington. Trump obviously didn't, and failed at some of the things he tried to do because of that.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 4:16 pmGood time to do a practice run, I'd say.
With the obvious caveat that I don't know what I'm talking about
Remember, the president is not a legislator, and they do not have the power to change the law, or even to introduce laws (unlike the Prime Minister).
Seems from the last 50 years or so, being Veep or State Governor is your best bet. Only one President ever has gone from Representative to President (Garfield). There are a few Senators on the list, the most recent being Obama.
I wonder how much of that is a recognition thing though? AOC has plenty of that - she even has the three letter name. Governors, Senators and Veeps are a lot more prominent positions than Member of Congress.
Re: US Election 2024
Yeah, Obama is one with no previous executive position, and Kennedy was the one before that. You could suggest that both had some issues early on where previous executive experience might have been helpful (Bay of Pigs, for example).monkey wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 6:12 pmHere's a list - wiki clickydyqik wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 5:55 pmRealistically, any candidate for President needs some experience of elected executive office. Even Sanders has that, as mayor of Burlington. Trump obviously didn't, and failed at some of the things he tried to do because of that.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 4:16 pmGood time to do a practice run, I'd say.
With the obvious caveat that I don't know what I'm talking about
Remember, the president is not a legislator, and they do not have the power to change the law, or even to introduce laws (unlike the Prime Minister).
Seems from the last 50 years or so, being Veep or State Governor is your best bet. Only one President ever has gone from Representative to President (Garfield). There are a few Senators on the list, the most recent being Obama.
I wonder how much of that is a recognition thing though? AOC has plenty of that - she even has the three letter name. Governors, Senators and Veeps are a lot more prominent positions than Member of Congress.
Eisenhower's experience doesn't really fit the mold, but he basically did have executive experience, managing Churchill, Roosevelt/Truman and Stalin, as well as multinational military staffs.