Scrutable

Posted: **Fri Apr 15, 2022 6:03 pm**

Woodchopper wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 4:23 pm
EACLucifer wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 12:24 pm It is, of course, difficult to think of a more clear cut and legitimate military target than a warship of a belligerent nation at sea.
Yes, there would be a very low chance that any civilians might be hurt.

The Russian pundits are pissed off because this isn't the sort of thing that is supposed to happen when a great power attacks a weaker state. Iraq in 1991 or 2003 involved far fewer casualties. We're watching the them come to grips with the reality that they aren't nearly as powerful as they thought they were.

A wounded bear is a dangerous bear.

Posted: **Fri Apr 15, 2022 6:06 pm**

Herainestold wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 6:03 pm
Woodchopper wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 4:23 pm
EACLucifer wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 12:24 pm It is, of course, difficult to think of a more clear cut and legitimate military target than a warship of a belligerent nation at sea.
Yes, there would be a very low chance that any civilians might be hurt.

The Russian pundits are pissed off because this isn't the sort of thing that is supposed to happen when a great power attacks a weaker state. Iraq in 1991 or 2003 involved far fewer casualties. We're watching the them come to grips with the reality that they aren't nearly as powerful as they thought they were.
A wounded bear is a dangerous bear.

Countries aren't animals

Posted: **Fri Apr 15, 2022 6:14 pm**

Herainestold wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 6:03 pm A wounded bear is a dangerous bear.

Oh do put a sock in it Pvt Frazer.

Posted: **Fri Apr 15, 2022 7:22 pm**

Herainestold wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 6:03 pm
Woodchopper wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 4:23 pm
EACLucifer wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 12:24 pm It is, of course, difficult to think of a more clear cut and legitimate military target than a warship of a belligerent nation at sea.
Yes, there would be a very low chance that any civilians might be hurt.

The Russian pundits are pissed off because this isn't the sort of thing that is supposed to happen when a great power attacks a weaker state. Iraq in 1991 or 2003 involved far fewer casualties. We're watching the them come to grips with the reality that they aren't nearly as powerful as they thought they were.
A wounded bear is a dangerous bear.

Posted: **Fri Apr 15, 2022 7:53 pm**

Herainestold wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 6:03 pm
Woodchopper wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 4:23 pm
EACLucifer wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 12:24 pm It is, of course, difficult to think of a more clear cut and legitimate military target than a warship of a belligerent nation at sea.
Yes, there would be a very low chance that any civilians might be hurt.

The Russian pundits are pissed off because this isn't the sort of thing that is supposed to happen when a great power attacks a weaker state. Iraq in 1991 or 2003 involved far fewer casualties. We're watching the them come to grips with the reality that they aren't nearly as powerful as they thought they were.
A wounded bear is a dangerous bear.

Depends how wounded it is

Posted: **Fri Apr 15, 2022 8:06 pm**

Grumble wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 7:53 pm
Herainestold wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 6:03 pm
Woodchopper wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 4:23 pm

Yes, there would be a very low chance that any civilians might be hurt.

The Russian pundits are pissed off because this isn't the sort of thing that is supposed to happen when a great power attacks a weaker state. Iraq in 1991 or 2003 involved far fewer casualties. We're watching the them come to grips with the reality that they aren't nearly as powerful as they thought they were.
A wounded bear is a dangerous bear.
Depends how wounded it is

Depends if it’s black bear or a Grizzly.

Posted: **Fri Apr 15, 2022 11:06 pm**

Beware the insomniac bear..

The brown bear (Mishka) is the hero of many children’s tales and cartoons for adults. It was the mascot of the 1980 Moscow Olympics.

In spite of its huge weight and apparent clumsiness, it is a very agile animal. It can stalk its prey, leap on its back (at a speed of 50 km an hour) and kill it with a single stroke of its paw.

The brown bear inhabits almost the entire forest zone and the most dangerous variant is the insomniac bear. This is a bear who, for some reason, does not hibernate in winter, or emerges from its den long before the winter ends. A bear that wakes up ahead of time has a very nasty disposition and should be given a wide berth.

https://www.rbth.com/articles/2011/04/2 ... 12694.html

Posted: **Sat Apr 16, 2022 6:16 am**

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/20 ... he-burned/

Since the sinking, Russia’s reaction has been subject to speculation. At around 6.30pm local time on April 15 a radar satellite covered Crimea. Two formations of Russian Navy warships, likely including Landing ships, are seen steaming northwest. Their direction suggests that they are sailing towards the Ukrainian coast.
There is also increased activity near to the naval base of Sevastopol. This subsequently died down, implying that the vessels had left Sevastopol. It is possible that a fresh operation is underway

Posted: **Sat Apr 16, 2022 7:20 am**

shpalman wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 1:04 pm Their reprisal seems to be an attack on an actual factory which makes missiles rather than several apartment blocks full of civilians?

They wanted to claim the attack, whereas when they target civilians they always say that Ukraine dunnit.

Posted: **Sat Apr 16, 2022 10:01 am**

A thread discussing some of the issues with poor Russian tank operation.

I'm not sure about the source of the claim that Russian tanks are operating with two person crews. If true, it is a colossally stupid thing to do. Russian tanks have an autoloader, which means they don't need a person in the turret to load, so they ought to have two in the turret - a commander and a gunner - and a driver in the hull. Combining the roles of commander and gunner has been recognised as a major problem since WWII, it was one of the biggest problems with the original design of the T34 - one that was fixed with the T34-85's new turret - and also a problem with British midwar tanks where three person (gunner, commander, loader) turrets came down to two person to fit a larger gun in order to keep older designs in service (French tanks, with one person in the turret loading, firing and trying to command, were even worse). There is a reason for separating the roles of commander and gunner. One of the biggest problems with wrapping the crew up in very heavy armour is it gets difficult to see out; having one crew member dedicated to observing what's going on outside and working out the best course of action, and coordinating with other tanks/other units is essential to maintaining situational awareness. Combining the roles of commander and gunner mean the tank is half-blind.

One detail that I will add that isn't in the thread is that every Russian tank I've seen operating has been buttoned down, with all the hatches closed. This does make the tank less vulnerable to damage, but it comes at a cost in situational awareness. There's plenty of footage of American tankers in Iraq operating with the commanders hatch in the half-open position, giving a much better view of what is going on outside, to the point that some of the upgrade kits to the Abrams included armoured glass panels to protect the TC's head. I'm not sure if this is a doctrinal difference, a training difference, or if Russian tanks just aren't designed to be operated in that manner.

Another point the thread makes is that the turrets on Russian tanks always seem to be pointing forward, even when multiple vehicles are in formation, and ought to be covering different angles. This makes it much harder to respond to ambushes. I've seen footage - which I won't post - of a T72 getting destroyed in Mariupol by repeated rocket-propelled grenade hits, and though the tank is still functional until the third or fourth hit, at no point does it show any signs of knowing where the shots are coming from.

Posted: **Sat Apr 16, 2022 12:43 pm**

The Times are reporting that the SAS are actually in Ukraine in order to train Ukrainians.

Posted: **Sat Apr 16, 2022 4:53 pm**

An eighth Russian general has been KIA in Ukraine.

Posted: **Sat Apr 16, 2022 5:22 pm**

EACLucifer wrote: Sat Apr 16, 2022 4:53 pm An eighth Russian general has been KIA in Ukraine.

To mangle a quote from the Importance of Being Earnest.

To lose one general is unfortunate, to lose eight ...

Posted: **Sat Apr 16, 2022 6:19 pm**

Footage has emerged of what is claimed to be survivors of the Moskva. Somewhere in the vicinity of a hundred of them. If they really are survivors, and if they are the only ones, that leaves about four hundred dead or too ill to attend a ceremony in Sevastopol.

I've not seen any more about the alleged rescue of some by a Turkish ship, may have just been an internet rumour.

Posted: **Sat Apr 16, 2022 8:07 pm**

EACLucifer wrote: Sat Apr 16, 2022 6:19 pm Footage has emerged of what is claimed to be survivors of the Moskva. Somewhere in the vicinity of a hundred of them. If they really are survivors, and if they are the only ones, that leaves about four hundred dead or too ill to attend a ceremony in Sevastopol.

I've not seen any more about the alleged rescue of some by a Turkish ship, may have just been an internet rumour.

BBC News has the video of the men being paraded and inspected. I counted roughly sixty in a row, two ranks deep, but one shot seems to show the second rank has gaps. So yes, about a hundred. Must surely have been a magazine that was hit to cause that level of casualties.

Posted: **Sat Apr 16, 2022 9:38 pm**

Martin Y wrote: Sat Apr 16, 2022 8:07 pm
EACLucifer wrote: Sat Apr 16, 2022 6:19 pm Footage has emerged of what is claimed to be survivors of the Moskva. Somewhere in the vicinity of a hundred of them. If they really are survivors, and if they are the only ones, that leaves about four hundred dead or too ill to attend a ceremony in Sevastopol.

I've not seen any more about the alleged rescue of some by a Turkish ship, may have just been an internet rumour.
BBC News has the video of the men being paraded and inspected. I counted roughly sixty in a row, two ranks deep, but one shot seems to show the second rank has gaps. So yes, about a hundred. Must surely have been a magazine that was hit to cause that level of casualties.

Covert Shores thinks two hundred and forty in the video, though I've not seen his working

It also looks like the captain probably survived. Still, we're looking at half or a bit more of the crew dead, too injured for PR parades or possibly picked up by a Turkish ship, at which point, one presumes, they would be interned.

Slava class cruisers don't have armoured magazines like old fashioned gun cruisers, instead they carry their main armament in missile tubes on the deck, meaning the deck is covered in one-tonne warheads and huge quantities of kerosene.

Some of Covert Shores satellite analysis suggested another ship alongside Moskva after she was hit, so probably not a catastrophic explosion when first hit, but clearly the damage was severe enough to sink her, and it looks like a lot of the crew didn't make it.

The loss of life in this incident is likely to be twice that of the Kursk disaster, which caused extensive controversy within Russia. If/when it dawns on people a lot of the crew did not make it, it could potentially cause unrest, though it is hard to say at this point.

ETA: It is not impossible that standins have been added to conceal worse losses, but if that were the case, I wouldn't expect them to have effectively admitted that half the crew were killed or injured.

Posted: **Sun Apr 17, 2022 12:54 am**

I suggested over on International Skeptics forum that perhaps one of the missiles on deck had been hit but it was pointed out to me that anti ship missiles aim to hit low down, and that aside from its main armament on deck, the Moscva also had several other magazines for anti aircraft systems, its gun, torpedoes and anti submarine mortar.

Posted: **Mon Apr 18, 2022 12:51 am**

Pictures of the ship have emerged. covert shores
don't know this chap, seem plausible

Posted: **Mon Apr 18, 2022 2:15 am**

Report from a survivor of the Moskva to his mother

“The son said that the cruiser was hit from the land, from the Ukrainian side. It just wouldn't cause a fire. There are dead, there are wounded, there are missing. My son called me when they were given the phones. They left their documents and [their personal] phones on the cruiser. He calls me and cries from what he saw. It was scary. It is clear that not everyone survived. They tried to put out the fire on their own after the cruiser was hit by three Neptune missiles ( Kyiv says that only two missiles hit - Ed .). I, as a mother, do not even know what words to choose. I'm just very happy that my son called me that he is alive and well.

About forty people died. Several people went missing. And a lot of wounded.

The wounded, mostly with severed limbs, because there were such explosions - both what detonated and what rockets hit.
In general, when my son called me on the fifteenth, he was crying. He says: “Mommy, I never thought that in a peaceful time, in principle, I would fall into such a mess. I won't even tell you in detail what I saw. It's so scary."

https://novayagazetaeu.substack.com/p/--29c?s=r

Posted: **Mon Apr 18, 2022 6:12 am**

In a peaceful time?

Even the words special operation preclude that.

Posted: **Mon Apr 18, 2022 6:39 am**

Herainestold wrote: Mon Apr 18, 2022 2:15 am Report from a survivor of the Moskva to his mother

“The son said that the cruiser was hit from the land, from the Ukrainian side. It just wouldn't cause a fire. There are dead, there are wounded, there are missing. My son called me when they were given the phones. They left their documents and [their personal] phones on the cruiser. He calls me and cries from what he saw. It was scary. It is clear that not everyone survived. They tried to put out the fire on their own after the cruiser was hit by three Neptune missiles ( Kyiv says that only two missiles hit - Ed .). I, as a mother, do not even know what words to choose. I'm just very happy that my son called me that he is alive and well.

About forty people died. Several people went missing. And a lot of wounded.

The wounded, mostly with severed limbs, because there were such explosions - both what detonated and what rockets hit.
In general, when my son called me on the fifteenth, he was crying. He says: “Mommy, I never thought that in a peaceful time, in principle, I would fall into such a mess. I won't even tell you in detail what I saw. It's so scary."
https://novayagazetaeu.substack.com/p/--29c?s=r

How reliable is this source? I find it hard to believe a mother of one of the sailors would say "three Neptune missiles", or even that the sailor would say the type of missile when speaking to his mother. It sounds like the sort of shoe-horned product placement you hear on US TV shows. "From the Ukrainian side" also doesn't seem like a natural thing to say (and how likely is it the the sailor would know?). But maybe is sounds more natural when spoken in Russian.

Posted: **Mon Apr 18, 2022 8:29 am**

Ukraine has reported retaking several villages in Kharkiv oblast, including, notably, Bazaliyivka. Bazaliyivka is east of Kharkiv, a bit west of Kup'yans'k, and more or less directly between Belgorod - Russia's logistics base for it's attempt at a northern pincer - and Izyum, where that attemped pincer is fighting.

Russia appears to be attempting to envelop the Kramatorsk-Slovyansk salient with an attack south through Izyum, but in so doing they have created a salient of their own. This is fairly standard with an attempted pincer movement, and to maintain such an offensive the attacker needs to defend the flanks of the salients it creates - the Battle of Kursks is one of the most famous examples of an attacker failing to do so. The salient the Russians have formed around Izyum is largely to the west of the Oskil river. A counterattack from Kharkiv, pushing east puts a lot of pressure on the line of supply to the tip of that salient.

The Russians will have to be careful, as if that counterattack were able to push as far as the Oskil around Kup'yans'k, they could face envelopment. While that isn't that likely, the Russian withdrawal from the north of Ukraine was almost certainly due to the risk of those long thin salients they had created being enveloped, and local collapses around Trostyanets and Nova Basan were both occurred when Russian positions realised they were about to be surrounded.

It may not lead to anything significant, but it's an area to keep an eye on over the next few days and weeks.

Posted: **Mon Apr 18, 2022 9:08 am**

Martin Y wrote: Sun Apr 17, 2022 12:54 am I suggested over on International Skeptics forum that perhaps one of the missiles on deck had been hit but it was pointed out to me that anti ship missiles aim to hit low down, and that aside from its main armament on deck, the Moscva also had several other magazines for anti aircraft systems, its gun, torpedoes and anti submarine mortar.

Looks like they were right, now footage of Moskva burning has emerged, it looks like the hit was near the bow. Apparently, that means it was the anti-submarine ammunition that went up. There's still smoke, and very extensive damage from fire, including scorch marks around the portholes most of the way along the port side of the ship. Liferafts are all gone, suggesting they got used. No rescue ships or rescue operations are visible, my best guess is someone took the picture from a rescue ship as they retreated, having done everything they could do/were willing to do before abandoning the ship to her fate.

Posted: **Mon Apr 18, 2022 11:10 am**

EACLucifer wrote: Mon Apr 18, 2022 9:08 am
Martin Y wrote: Sun Apr 17, 2022 12:54 am I suggested over on International Skeptics forum that perhaps one of the missiles on deck had been hit but it was pointed out to me that anti ship missiles aim to hit low down, and that aside from its main armament on deck, the Moscva also had several other magazines for anti aircraft systems, its gun, torpedoes and anti submarine mortar.
Looks like they were right, now footage of Moskva burning has emerged, it looks like the hit was near the bow. Apparently, that means it was the anti-submarine ammunition that went up. There's still smoke, and very extensive damage from fire, including scorch marks around the portholes most of the way along the port side of the ship. Liferafts are all gone, suggesting they got used. No rescue ships or rescue operations are visible, my best guess is someone took the picture from a rescue ship as they retreated, having done everything they could do/were willing to do before abandoning the ship to her fate.

Re "No rescue ships or rescue operations are visible", I've seen it suggested that there was a vessel alongside to starboard, with part of her mast visible just to the right of the aft radar dome, and another structure (at a different angle to the heel of the Moskva) to the left of it.

Posted: **Mon Apr 18, 2022 11:48 am**

temptar wrote: Mon Apr 18, 2022 6:12 am In a peaceful time?

Even the words special operation preclude that.

I suspect a lot may be getting lost in (automated?) translation here. For example, he might mean "I never thought [, when we were back] in a peaceful time" rather than "I never thought [that when we would be] in a peaceful time". I've seen a lot of things end up almost inverted when translated from Russian or Ukrainian. (Don't get me started on Google Translate and Turkish.)

Scrutable

Blyatskrieg

Re: Blyatskrieg

Re: Blyatskrieg

Re: Blyatskrieg

Re: Blyatskrieg

Re: Blyatskrieg

Re: Blyatskrieg

Re: Blyatskrieg

Re: Blyatskrieg

Re: Blyatskrieg

Re: Blyatskrieg

Re: Blyatskrieg

Re: Blyatskrieg

Re: Blyatskrieg

Re: Blyatskrieg

Re: Blyatskrieg

Re: Blyatskrieg

Re: Blyatskrieg

Re: Blyatskrieg

Re: Blyatskrieg

Re: Blyatskrieg

Re: Blyatskrieg

Re: Blyatskrieg

Re: Blyatskrieg

Re: Blyatskrieg

Re: Blyatskrieg