Scrutable

Tory Leadership Candidates, Ranked By How Likely They Are to Eat a Worm

The Conservatives need a new leader, again (“Be worse under Labour! Imagine how bad it’d be under Labour, though!” — your dad, 900 times a year, whenever something bad happens) and now the country will be ruled by one of these flagrantly ambitious personality voids who think businesses deserve more human rights that humans, for about two maybe two-and-a-half years until another inescapable scandal ousts them and Michael Gove gets to pretend they might finally run out of Tories enough for him to have a go. And the question on everyone’s lips is: Which Of The Conservative Leadership Candidates Would Eat A Worm?

You'd expect Tugendhat to be out next and for his votes to go to Rishi...

So all depends on where Braverman's and Badenoch's votes go to when they are ejected.

Scary thing is that apparently both Truss and Mourdaunt are apparently more popular with membership than Rishi... so on that basis it'll be Truss as PM or Mourdaunt as PM.

shpalman wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 10:21 am I'll put them in order according to https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng ... ll-results

shpalman wrote: Tue Jul 12, 2022 5:08 pm Rishi Sunak 88
Penny Mordaunt 67
Liz Truss 50
Kemi Badenoch 40
Tom Tugendhat 37
Suella Braverman 32
Nadhim Zahawi 25
Jeremy Hunt 18

So now it's
Rishi Sunak - 101 (up 13)
Penny Mordaunt - 83 (up 16)
Liz Truss - 64 (up 14)
Kemi Badenoch - 49 (up 9)
Tom Tugendhat - 32 (down 5)
Suella Braverman - 27 (down 5)

One wonders if it hasn't occurred to CCHQ to do STV... and get it over with after one round of voting.

I doubt that those involved care much about speed and efficiency. They presumably see horse trading and deal making as an important part of the process, and taking it slowly gives room for the candidates to adjust their positions as they see what plays well and what doesn't.

TopBadger wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 3:43 pm One wonders if it hasn't occurred to CCHQ to do STV... and get it over with after one round of voting.

The voter behaviour we have observed is not consistent with what would happen under STV. Under STV, surviving candidates' votes can only go up as losing candidates are removed. But we see votes going down. Why might that be? Voters learn how the wind is blowing, and might thus change their mind, or else enter into some dirty back-stabbing deal.

Multi-round processes have the advantage of revealing information that was previously obscure to the voters as the rounds proceed. Also, as Arrow's theorem reminds us, wherever there are more than 2 options, there is no ideal voting system, nor any immune from gaining advantage through tactical voting. So I suspect we can exhibit whatever paradox or perverse outcome we want to, and more information can sometimes lead to a worse outcome. But rather more often than not, more information will be a good thing, not a bad thing. Maybe the US presidential voting system is an example of where a multi-round system (ie the primaries before the main election) has a tendency to produce a bad outcome, but that's due in part to the restricted electorates in the primaries.

https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/sta ... 9815930880

Nadine Dorries tells
@Channel4
about Liz Truss, whom she is supporting for Tory leader:

“They call her a hand grenade because she gets things done.”

Um

jimbob wrote: Fri Jul 15, 2022 10:23 am https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/sta ... 9815930880

Nadine Dorries tells
@Channel4
about Liz Truss, whom she is supporting for Tory leader:

“They call her a hand grenade because she gets things done.”

Um

With friends like Dorries, who needs enemies eh?

But then when every political problem looks like a bunch of (Tory) c.nts in a debating or committee room, I can well see how lobbing in a hand grenade looks like the solution.

bolo wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 4:06 pm I doubt that those involved care much about speed and efficiency. They presumably see horse trading and deal making as an important part of the process, and taking it slowly gives room for the candidates to adjust their positions as they see what plays well and what doesn't.

Indeed, they want the maximum possible amount of airtime and newsprint dedicated to discussions of which tory policy is the best, so that there's no room for other parties or views

jimbob wrote: Fri Jul 15, 2022 10:23 am https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/sta ... 9815930880

Nadine Dorries tells
@Channel4
about Liz Truss, whom she is supporting for Tory leader:

“They call her a hand grenade because she gets things done.”

Um

Makes a change from a dead cat.

Penny Mordant (sic) the homeopathy fan

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... SApp_Other

The Infamous Five.

Tessa K wrote: Fri Jul 15, 2022 4:56 pm Penny Mordant (sic) the homeopathy fan

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... SApp_Other

Shocking to find anybody in this day and age who still supports such a stupid idea so discredited for decades. It really is the worst form of magical thinking designed to con the gullible and enrich the unscrupulous. Shameful!

It's not great that she supports homeopathy as well

I didn't watch the televised debate... how bad was it?

TopBadger wrote: Fri Jul 15, 2022 8:51 pm I didn't watch the televised debate... how bad was it?

Probably not quite this bad.

Is probably a total coincidence, but on What 3 Words, you find a place in Wisconsin (which is an anagram of " I wins Cons ") you find... ET correct f.cking anagrams

So Guardian has a story about Mordaunt's fondness for homeopathy...

"Tory leadership candidate has voiced support for what others say is bogus treatment"

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... thy-on-nhs

WTF do they need the "what others say is" bit for????

bob sterman wrote: Sat Jul 16, 2022 6:17 am So Guardian has a story about Mordaunt's fondness for homeopathy...

"Tory leadership candidate has voiced support for what others say is bogus treatment"

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... thy-on-nhs

WTF do they need the "what others say is" bit for????

Isn't "bogus" the word that got Schama sued? In which case putting it in others' mouths might be wise.

That was chiropractors, he won too but they went against him as an individual. I can't see the homeopaths taking on the Guardian.

What's the woo equivalent of Big Pharma? Big Homeo?

(I initially typed Big Parma. That would be much tastier)

Tessa K wrote: Sat Jul 16, 2022 12:32 pm What's the woo equivalent of Big Pharma? Big Homeo?

(I initially typed Big Parma. That would be much tastier)

Boiron, mostly.

Opti wrote: Sat Jul 16, 2022 12:39 pm

Tessa K wrote: Sat Jul 16, 2022 12:32 pm What's the woo equivalent of Big Pharma? Big Homeo?

(I initially typed Big Parma. That would be much tastier)

Boiron, mostly.

Sorry, I don't get that

Bird on a Fire wrote: Sat Jul 16, 2022 10:27 am Isn't "bogus" the word that got Schama sued?

Wrong Simon m9. It was my good friend Simon Singh that got sued unsuccessfully by the BCA.

Tessa K wrote: Sat Jul 16, 2022 1:30 pm

Opti wrote: Sat Jul 16, 2022 12:39 pm

Tessa K wrote: Sat Jul 16, 2022 12:32 pm What's the woo equivalent of Big Pharma? Big Homeo?

(I initially typed Big Parma. That would be much tastier)

Boiron, mostly.

Sorry, I don't get that

Biggest homeopathic mfr in the world: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boiron

Tessa K wrote: Sat Jul 16, 2022 12:32 pm What's the woo equivalent of Big Pharma? Big Homeo?

Surely if their approach has validity - it's really infinitesimally small homeo that would be a more fearsome adversary in a courtroom? Homeo that's so small it might not even turn up for the hearing?