Scrutable

lpm wrote: Sun Jul 21, 2024 10:05 pm Trump is going to refuse to debate again.

Demanding the agreed second debate is on Fox, presumably as an excuse for it not happening.

I doubt Vance will debate either.

Why would he debate a politician he once donated to?

https://bsky.app/profile/donmoyn.bsky.s ... sxx7qhbn24

dyqik wrote: Sun Jul 21, 2024 11:11 pm

lpm wrote: Sun Jul 21, 2024 10:05 pm Trump is going to refuse to debate again.

Demanding the agreed second debate is on Fox, presumably as an excuse for it not happening.

I doubt Vance will debate either.

Why would he debate a politician he once donated to?

https://bsky.app/profile/donmoyn.bsky.s ... sxx7qhbn24

Trump may argue that the donation shows that Harris accepts money from convicted felons.

Stephen Miller losing his sh.t is divine

https://x.com/fpwellman/status/1815187184351166797?s=61

Act Blue donations going well

https://x.com/actblue/status/1815198823771165179?s=61

https://x.com/m_mcdonough/status/181517 ... 08791?s=61

Leading Democrats have fallen behind Harris very quickly. Looks like the timing of Biden’s announcement may have been related to ensuring a smooth transition.

I hope Harris is up to the task.

I’m feeling much more optimistic about the fate of the free world.

I think Mark Kelly would pwn J D Vance but what I didn’t realise is his wife is Gabby Giffords. That has to have some value.

Woodchopper wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 5:23 am

dyqik wrote: Sun Jul 21, 2024 11:11 pm

lpm wrote: Sun Jul 21, 2024 10:05 pm Trump is going to refuse to debate again.

Demanding the agreed second debate is on Fox, presumably as an excuse for it not happening.

I doubt Vance will debate either.

Why would he debate a politician he once donated to?

https://bsky.app/profile/donmoyn.bsky.s ... sxx7qhbn24

Trump may argue that the donation shows that Harris accepts money from convicted felons.

That would mean claiming that he is a convicted felon, and was in 2011.

I don't believe that there's any restriction on accepting donations from convicted felons. Note that you don't have to registered to vote to donate, and New York does not bar felons from voting

But we now know the donor was a fraudster and tax evader back in 2011. The donor only had enough money to make the donation thanks to being an unabashed criminal.

Harris should return it.

No (imho). I always think, in these situations, it would be better to pass the donations on to an appropriate charity rather than returning them.

That's unfair. The donor is desperate for the $5,000 back. He's got a $355 million fine to pay and the Russian President isn't coughing up.

The BBC is speculating about Harris's running mates and suggest Gavin Newsom. They don't realise the Presidential and Vice Presidential candidate can not run from the same state.

Or so I thought until I read about it. In fact, the 12th Amendment does not prohibit President and VP running from the same state.

It just prevents the Electoral College electors from that state voting for both. In this instance, the electors from California, "vote by ballot for President and Vice-President, one of whom, at least, shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves". It seems that means the California electors would vote for Harris as President but cannot then vote for Newsom as Vice President.

Obviously you can't easily win without California's 54 EC votes and it highly likely Vance would elected VP under Harris. But if both candidates were from, say, Delaware, they might choose to just forgo the 3 EC votes and take the chance.

In 2000 Bush 2 and Cheney were both Texas residents. However Cheney was from Wyoming and represented it in Congress. He moved his voter registration and driver's license back to Wyoming. It was challenged in court but the challenge was rejected.

Newsom would is a fairly flawed candidate.

His ex spoke at the RNC, and is dating Don Jr.. it would be continuous scandal. He's also an elite West coaster who would turn off Mid westerners.

NPR's Wait Wait Don't Tell Me...'s take on Vance (paraphrased):

'this is a unity pick - unifying the Proud Boys and the Klan"
"They say you should pick a politician that people want to have a beer with. JD Vance makes me want to cover my beer"

Woodchopper wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2024 12:04 pm

lpm wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2024 11:22 am ... which is why there needs to be an anointed son, chosen by Biden.

Nothing can happen if Biden decides to cling on.

This isn't hard. There aren't multiple paths for it to play out. It is simply:

1. Biden stays and loses. Immense suffering follows.

2. Biden chooses to end it and anoints X as successor, party rallies round X. Then X wins or loses in November.

3. Party fights itself and Y, Z etc try to beat X at the convention. Lose in November, immense suffering follows.

4. Biden clings on, dies, President Harris wins or loses in November.

For path 2 Biden has already anointed his successor. Its Harris, she's the vice president, and when he announced that he'd run again Biden stated that Harris is his running mate and she has had that role throughout the primaries. [Edit, just look at the primary campaign website, its Biden and Harris on the logo and in the pictures, with the text "Joe and Kamala are running to ensure four more years of progress for the American people." https://joebiden.com/ ]

There isn't an easy way to de-anoint Harris. The only way for there to be an easy transition is for both Biden and Harris to retire from the race. But that's a tall order. If not then as you write, its path 3, with huge infighting and a likely Trump win anyway.

You were right, weeks ago, the day after the debate disaster. Harris was pre-anointed and was always going to take over as nominee.

I hadn't realised quite how it worked with the primaries and the joint ticket. Didn't know delegates either automatically switch or are highly likely to switch, plus the campaign war chest and machinery gets handed over.

I thought it would all wait until the convention, with Harris lobbying hard for delegates. At best, ignoring Trump in the meantime. At worst, getting into a messy fight at Chicago.

Everyone else plausible has come out in support of Harris, I believe? Or at least (Manchin) said he won't run against her. Anyone credible Ieft?

No.

There never was anyone credible, because of Harris's status as vice president, FEC rules, and primary delegate rules.

Replacing Harris means about half of the Biden-Harris delegates have to decide to go against the wishes of the presidential candidate and campaign that selected them,

The chances are maybe less than if Biden had stayed in the race.

lpm wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 11:54 am That's unfair. The donor is desperate for the $5,000 back. He's got a $355 million fine to pay and the Russian President isn't coughing up.

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-r ... is-1928235

Hunter Biden hasn't yet said he endorses Harris. Unless I've missed it.

Hopefully he'll stand. Reimbursing the Republicans for all the effort they spent on him will bankrupt the Democratic Party.

bob sterman wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2024 1:26 pm When it comes to betting on the identity of the Democrat candidate - right now you can get...

9/4 Newsom
6/1 Harris
7/1 Obama (M)
28/1 Hillary
100/1 Josh Shapiro
200/1 Meghan Markle or Bill Gates (same as Bernie Sanders)

This was from the day after the debate - there was a lot of money to be made on Harris if I'd understood the mechanisms properly.

Twitter proved itself useless again, the self-appointed commentators promised Democrat chaos and convention riots. It was either stick with Biden or public self-destruction.

lpm wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 1:06 pm
Twitter The NY Times and the Washington Post proved themselves useless again, the self-appointed commentators promised Democrat chaos and convention riots. It was either stick with Biden or public self-destruction.

FTFY. The Post and Times were both calling for mini-primaries and a contested convention yesterday evening. They are desperate for there to be more drama - including that of a Trump presidency. Even though Trump would probably try to arrest them all.

Video of Trump's bullet hole:

https://x.com/PaulleyTicks/status/1815271907266322466

dyqik wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 10:49 am

Woodchopper wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 5:23 am

dyqik wrote: Sun Jul 21, 2024 11:11 pm

Why would he debate a politician he once donated to?

https://bsky.app/profile/donmoyn.bsky.s ... sxx7qhbn24

Trump may argue that the donation shows that Harris accepts money from convicted felons.

That would mean claiming that he is a convicted felon, and was in 2011.

I don't believe that there's any restriction on accepting donations from convicted felons. Note that you don't have to registered to vote to donate, and New York does not bar felons from voting

It was a joke.

Woodchopper wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 1:50 pm

dyqik wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 10:49 am

Woodchopper wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 5:23 am

Trump may argue that the donation shows that Harris accepts money from convicted felons.

That would mean claiming that he is a convicted felon, and was in 2011.

I don't believe that there's any restriction on accepting donations from convicted felons. Note that you don't have to registered to vote to donate, and New York does not bar felons from voting

It was a joke.

I know. But the GOP will run that one anyway.

lpm wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 12:27 pm

Woodchopper wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2024 12:04 pm

lpm wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2024 11:22 am ... which is why there needs to be an anointed son, chosen by Biden.

Nothing can happen if Biden decides to cling on.

This isn't hard. There aren't multiple paths for it to play out. It is simply:

1. Biden stays and loses. Immense suffering follows.

2. Biden chooses to end it and anoints X as successor, party rallies round X. Then X wins or loses in November.

3. Party fights itself and Y, Z etc try to beat X at the convention. Lose in November, immense suffering follows.

4. Biden clings on, dies, President Harris wins or loses in November.

For path 2 Biden has already anointed his successor. Its Harris, she's the vice president, and when he announced that he'd run again Biden stated that Harris is his running mate and she has had that role throughout the primaries. [Edit, just look at the primary campaign website, its Biden and Harris on the logo and in the pictures, with the text "Joe and Kamala are running to ensure four more years of progress for the American people." https://joebiden.com/ ]

There isn't an easy way to de-anoint Harris. The only way for there to be an easy transition is for both Biden and Harris to retire from the race. But that's a tall order. If not then as you write, its path 3, with huge infighting and a likely Trump win anyway.

You were right, weeks ago, the day after the debate disaster. Harris was pre-anointed and was always going to take over as nominee.

I hadn't realised quite how it worked with the primaries and the joint ticket. Didn't know delegates either automatically switch or are highly likely to switch, plus the campaign war chest and machinery gets handed over.

I thought it would all wait until the convention, with Harris lobbying hard for delegates. At best, ignoring Trump in the meantime. At worst, getting into a messy fight at Chicago.

Everyone else plausible has come out in support of Harris, I believe? Or at least (Manchin) said he won't run against her. Anyone credible Ieft?

Cheers lpm, I don’t think there is any serious opposition.

Aww, bless the little Swifties, they really want to help.

The Democratic nominee has just given a speech and made zero gaffes!

Felt weird to be honest.