Scrutable

jimbob wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:01 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:35 pm Still, on the plus side a Trump presidency might make getting a trade deal with a major economy a bit easier.

At the cost of peace in Northern Ireland? And when such a deal would need to be ratified by Congress?

Trump doesn't give a sh.t about Northern Ireland, and as we've seen over the last four years, Congress schmongress.

Bird on a Fire wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:07 pm Trump doesn't give a sh.t about Northern Ireland, and as we've seen over the last four years, Congress schmongress.

That's a bit unfair... the Republicans controlled both houses until 2019, and the House of Representatives has not given Trump very much of what he wanted. They have to approve any trade deal and if Trump won again they would be very happy to piss him off.

Bit of a summary. Lol that "governance" is implied to be as easy as the others to fix...

https://mobile.twitter.com/BethRigby/st ... 9317929985

FlammableFlower wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 8:45 pm Johnson waits on US election results

1) He could be waiting for longer than he's got time for
2) Be careful what you wish for...

Ivan Rogers, former UK ambassador to the EU, says prime minister will think ‘history was going his way’ if Donald Trump is re-elected

3) Is that an implicit comment that he knows if Biden gets in he's f.cked?

If that was correct then Johnson will probably have lost another week as we probably won't know the result until this evening or Friday, maybe much later if a very close result goes to litigation and recounts.

? They could have read the electoral map on Tuesday night, same as us, and seen that it was a high chance of Biden winning. They'd have started Weds morning knowing Trump was gone. Unless their advisor on the race was Farage.

Biden is quite catholic and quite Irish. Has he actually come out and given a view on Brexit vs GFA?

plodder wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 11:42 am Biden is quite catholic and quite Irish. Has he actually come out and given a view on Brexit vs GFA?

Here: https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/130 ... 86944?s=20

I think he’s left wriggle room there for the Irish Sea border.

plodder wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 12:42 pm I think he’s left wriggle room there for the Irish Sea border.

Yes, of course. Why would he have a problem with an Irish Sea border?

It's always been the obvious solution. England and Wales want to do something different to the EU, so there has to be a border somewhere. The border can't be in Ireland, the relevant infrastructure already exists at sea ports, and NI voted Remain anyway, so let them have it.

Future historians will paint it as a logical continuation of British decolonialisation.

Bird on a Fire wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 2:11 pm

plodder wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 12:42 pm I think he’s left wriggle room there for the Irish Sea border.

Yes, of course. Why would he have a problem with an Irish Sea border?

It's always been the obvious solution. England and Wales want to do something different to the EU, so there has to be a border somewhere. The border can't be in Ireland, the relevant infrastructure already exists at sea ports, and NI voted Remain anyway, so let them have it.

Future historians will paint it as a logical continuation of British decolonialisation.

Certainly, Biden and other Democrats are worried about a NI I administrative border (with associated checkpoints and people in uniform). That might come to pass if Johnson actually rejects the Irish Sea border.

Thread suggests that talks went onto the back burner this week, possibly as Johnson waits for the US election. No negotiations over the weekend. Could just be brinkmanship by Johnson. But if so he’s leaving it very late.
https://twitter.com/bbckatyaadler/statu ... 18530?s=21

Woodchopper wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 6:54 pm Thread suggests that talks went onto the back burner this week, possibly as Johnson waits for the US election. No negotiations over the weekend. Could just be brinkmanship by Johnson. But if so he’s leaving it very late.
https://twitter.com/bbckatyaadler/statu ... 18530?s=21

Johnson knows Biden will win, but he can’t be seen to reach out to him before it’s actually called.

Grumble wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:49 am

Woodchopper wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 6:54 pm Thread suggests that talks went onto the back burner this week, possibly as Johnson waits for the US election. No negotiations over the weekend. Could just be brinkmanship by Johnson. But if so he’s leaving it very late.
https://twitter.com/bbckatyaadler/statu ... 18530?s=21

Johnson knows Biden will win, but he can’t be seen to reach out to him before it’s actually called.

Why should that affect the UK's good-faith negotiations with the EU?

jimbob wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:53 am

Grumble wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:49 am

Woodchopper wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 6:54 pm Thread suggests that talks went onto the back burner this week, possibly as Johnson waits for the US election. No negotiations over the weekend. Could just be brinkmanship by Johnson. But if so he’s leaving it very late.
https://twitter.com/bbckatyaadler/statu ... 18530?s=21

Johnson knows Biden will win, but he can’t be seen to reach out to him before it’s actually called.

Why should that affect the UK's good-faith negotiations with the EU?

One issue may be that Johnson needs an unambiguous win by Biden in order to persuade his backbenchers that the UK has no option but to fold and accept what the EU wants. However that may take some time if some of the very close results go to recounts.

Woodchopper wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:54 am

jimbob wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:53 am

Grumble wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:49 am

Johnson knows Biden will win, but he can’t be seen to reach out to him before it’s actually called.

Why should that affect the UK's good-faith negotiations with the EU?

One issue may be that Johnson needs an unambiguous win by Biden in order to persuade his backbenchers that the UK has no option but to fold and accept what the EU wants. However that may take some time if some of the very close results go to recounts.

That would make sense, if I thought Johnson actually cared about his backbenchers, when we know they have less spine than the GOP Senate.

jimbob wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:56 am

Woodchopper wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:54 am

jimbob wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:53 am

Why should that affect the UK's good-faith negotiations with the EU?

One issue may be that Johnson needs an unambiguous win by Biden in order to persuade his backbenchers that the UK has no option but to fold and accept what the EU wants. However that may take some time if some of the very close results go to recounts.

That would make sense, if I thought Johnson actually cared about his backbenchers, when we know they have less spine than the GOP Senate.

The Tory majority is too large for there to be a serious threat of a successful back bench rebellion. But Johnson cares about his image, and he doesn't want tens of ERG members denouncing him as a traitor.

NAO report. Britain’s borders ain’t ready.
https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploa ... period.pdf

Woodchopper wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 4:48 pm NAO report. Britain’s borders ain’t ready.
https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploa ... period.pdf

WHAT? And after Johnson's firm and dedicated leadership on this? With his cabinet of all the talents? that he can persuade to serve in his government take a post in his government

Good thread: https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/stat ... 37665?s=20

tl;dr suggestions that Johnson wants to sort out all the issues simultaneously in high level talks next week. EU not impressed and want to see the detail first.

IMHO this is where lack of trust comes in. Johnson could get away with a deal over a handshake with Varadkar but there has been too much water under the bridge since then.

Missed this earlier. Johnson to have a phone call with von Leyen today.
https://twitter.com/brexit/status/13247 ... 54625?s=21

If there is to be an agreement by the 16th there needs to be a breakthrough very soon.

Woodchopper wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 8:54 am Missed this earlier. Johnson to have a phone call with von Leyen today.
https://twitter.com/brexit/status/13247 ... 54625?s=21

If there is to be an agreement by the 16th there needs to be a breakthrough very soon.

Presumably Johnson's opening sentence will be something along the lines of saying that as the slumber party at Trump's house is no longer going ahead because Gramps Biden is like so totally like not cool like WHATEVA... so does the EU want to hang out at the mall and talk about boys and steal makeup like old times we'll even braid France's hair and didn't mean nuthing by calling Ireland a ginger skank even they totes are. PLEASE!

You know, all statesman-like and stuff as usual.

Over here in Spain there are an amazing number of Brexit 'ex-pats' who have failed to understand what the loss of freedom of movement actually means for them.
Cue lots of last-minute panicking. Many of them have been living here illegally for a long time, many of them have second homes where they spend lots of time but avoid paying Spanish taxes.
That is all about to end for them. It's, practically, just about too late for them to apply for residencia and exchange driving licences.

Oh what larks!

No breakthrough today then: https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/ ... 83264?s=21

So, about that post Brexit trade deal with the US...

Opti wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:49 am Over here in Spain there are an amazing number of Brexit 'ex-pats' who have failed to understand what the loss of freedom of movement actually means for them.
Cue lots of last-minute panicking. Many of them have been living here illegally for a long time, many of them have second homes where they spend lots of time but avoid paying Spanish taxes.
That is all about to end for them. It's, practically, just about too late for them to apply for residencia and exchange driving licences.

Oh what larks!

Spain has been bending over backwards (at least at a central level; at the local level it's very much "hay COVID, no tenemos citas previas") to help the Brits during the transition period, which of course has also been affected by the pandemic. There is going to be a pre-registration system for driving licences, so that if you have your residency application sorted by 25 December, you will be able to put your name on a list and they will allow you to convert your driving licence next year.

I'm also seeing tales on FB from well-meaning people who arrived recently but have left it very late, and are discovering that even without COVID, getting all your documents together takes time. Even getting on the padrón (municipal residence register) in Palma now needs an appointment, and of the 9 local offices where you can do this, on any given day 8 have no appointments, and the other one has three, which disappear within 2 minutes of coming up when you hit F5. It's slightly easier to get hold of Glastonbury tickets on the day they go on sale. That's a month's delay, and you still need several more bits of paper, especially if you're retired or self-employed. It's a bit easier if you happen to have a full-time permanent work contract with a local company, but for people without fluent Spanish those were rarer than hen's teeth even before COVID, at least in Mallorca.

But the people who have been under the radar for 10 or more years, working black, claiming to live in the UK, paying no tax anywhere, using EHICs and driving UK cars with no MOT and insurance that probably isn't valid? f.ck them soooooo much.

Also f.ck some (those who voted for Brexit) of the people who don't live in Spain, but are applying for residency and pretending that they live full-time in the holiday home they only visit in the winter. The other day I saw one complaining because they had been asked, as part of their residency application, to show some kind of receipts to show that they'd been in Spain continuously for the previous three months. They were huffing and puffing about how unreasonable this was, and pretending that they never use an ATM or a debit card, or do anything at all that would leave a trace. Yeah, right, it's a diabolical infringement of your privacy, Nigel. Worse than Franco. Now f.ck off and do your 90-in-180 Schengen thing like everyone else.