Scrutable

Gentleman Jim wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:26 pm <risks opprobium>

I blame Fleetwood Mac

lpm wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:55 pm Italy CFR is so much higher than China. Up at 6.6%.

I had assumed China's number of cases were missing loads, because testing was overwhelmed, leading to a 0.5% or 1% region. The rest of the world, though, seems to be coming in higher. I don't think China fatalities will be missed, so what else could be happening?

basementer wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:37 pm

Gentleman Jim wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:26 pm <risks opprobium>

I blame Fleetwood Mac

tusk, tusk

lpm wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:45 pm f.ck. Iran. f.ck. This says 2 million cases is not an unreasonable estimate. f.ck.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... ms/607663/

If COVID-19 is so rare—fewer than 400 cases had been reported in Iran by the day she announced her diagnosis—what are the chances that one of the afflicted would be a famous politician?

mikeh wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:48 am

Pucksoppet wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:34 am The trouble is, all the restrictions now sound a lot like stable doors slamming long after the horsed have bolted. Had they been enacted earlier, the severity of the outcomes could well have been reduced. Perhaps people will learn for the next time. Perhaps.

On this specific point - this is one area I've been writing about behind the scenes, the lack of preparation between big outbreaks/pandemics etc. For example, R&D funding closely follows "right after the Last Big Thing", and then slows down a year or two later, with very little in advance. Since Ebola 2014/15, there have been moves to invest more heavily in the advance solutions, but new vaccines and therapeutics take years to develop, and this COVID-19 has caught everyone on the hop.

Coronavirus R&D, for example, 95% pre-clinical over the last 20 years, so new tools and products not yet put through clinical trials. And this is despite SARS and MERS firing warning shots across the bows. Somewhere very close to no funding directed at Zika virus prior to its emergence in South America. Hard to predict sometimes what the Next Big Thing will be, but a hemorrhagic fever (Ebola, Marburg, Lassa) or severe respiratory infection (flu, coronavirus) are not hard to predict.
There are R&D efforts on, for example, a universal flu vaccine. And there have been huge efforts on an HIV vaccine (I'm unconvinced whether the vast investments there are actually worth it). But, I reckon this can all be better scaled-up and better targeted. Needs new people with money to come on board. I have been speaking to various City firms over the last few weeks, huge concern about assets, they could be one source of funding, assuming the strings-attached bits can be worked out.

Since 2009 swine flu, countries themselves do typically have pandemic plans readied, but of course resources and inclination can be slow to ratchet up. In part due to people declaring spare capacity in a system (e.g. more ICU beds lying empty most of the year) to be a waste, so there is always this panicked response mode. Doesn't have to be this way.

lpm wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:51 pm f.cking hell. Iran. f.cking hell. This ($) says mass graves dug with a pile of lime nearby, visible from satellites. f.cking hell.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... ak-graves/

Bird on a Fire wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:18 pm

lpm wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:51 pm f.cking hell. Iran. f.cking hell. This ($) says mass graves dug with a pile of lime nearby, visible from satellites. f.cking hell.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... ak-graves/

f.cking hell is right. Sounds like they may have been suppressing news an outbreak for a while. It wouldn't surprise me much if other countries, including China, had done the same.

Obviously the situation in Iran is a lot worse than it needs to be because of US sanctions restricting availability of key medical and hygiene equipment, as well as (if confirmed) the cover-up response by domestic authorities.

shpalman wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:38 pm

lpm wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:55 pm Italy CFR is so much higher than China. Up at 6.6%.

I had assumed China's number of cases were missing loads, because testing was overwhelmed, leading to a 0.5% or 1% region. The rest of the world, though, seems to be coming in higher. I don't think China fatalities will be missed, so what else could be happening?

Italy not bothering to test anyone unless they are already showing severe symptoms?

Or, Italy making some tough choices to not prolong (or even begin) the intensive care of elderly patients with pre-existing conditions so as to make beds available for cases with a better chance of survival? I've heard reports of this which have been denied by official channels.

dyqik wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:08 pm Is the British Government really saying that it wants people to be exposed to the virus, as this story suggests - https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-12/bri ... rt-peston/

dyqik wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:08 pm Is the British Government really saying that it wants people to be exposed to the virus, as this story suggests - https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-12/bri ... rt-peston/

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:38 pm Looks like Sturgeon is stealing Johnson's pathetic thunder.

Brightonian wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:14 pm

shpalman wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:38 pm

lpm wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:55 pm Italy CFR is so much higher than China. Up at 6.6%.

I had assumed China's number of cases were missing loads, because testing was overwhelmed, leading to a 0.5% or 1% region. The rest of the world, though, seems to be coming in higher. I don't think China fatalities will be missed, so what else could be happening?

Italy not bothering to test anyone unless they are already showing severe symptoms?

Or, Italy making some tough choices to not prolong (or even begin) the intensive care of elderly patients with pre-existing conditions so as to make beds available for cases with a better chance of survival? I've heard reports of this which have been denied by official channels.

This Twitter thread yesterday saying as much.

Bird on a Fire wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:24 pm

dyqik wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:08 pm Is the British Government really saying that it wants people to be exposed to the virus, as this story suggests - https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-12/bri ... rt-peston/

I think "expect" rather than "wants", as I understood it.

I am slowly coming to the conclusion that everybody is going to come into contact with this thing sooner or later. Slowing the spread is obviously a good idea, to reduce pressure on emergency services from the % that need specialist treatment. But everyone's going to get it sooner or later, I think - is there really a realistic prospect of shutting down multiple entire countries for long enough that it just goes away?

Cases in South Africa seem to be linked to people who have visited Europe, for example - but it's now already in an unknown number of people on that continent too, so can be transmitted in the reverse direction too.

We're all going to get it.

As a basically healthy youngster, I'm starting to think I might as well go and rub faces with somebody infected, then self-isolate and get it over with, rather than wait a couple of years for a vaccine. What do we think?