Scrutable

A more recent Andrew Perpetua map, which ought to do a pretty good job of showing the potential encirclement of the Russian garrison in Lyman.

This is consistent with reports from the Russian side, and seems to be reasonably consistent with photographic/video evidence, but it must be remembered that especially the latter source of evidence is a bit like trying to piece together a massive painting wrapped in cloth by peering through a few pinholes in the wrappings.

Looks like there is only one good road east too... hopefully within artillery range of the units to the south.

TopBadger wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:20 am Looks like there is only one good road east too... hopefully within artillery range of the units to the south.

A lot of the roads are already starting to look this this.

That gives the Russians a choice - use military vehicles that can handle the mud, but make obvious targets, or steal civilian ones as they did in Izyum, and risk getting stuck in that stuff.

The Ukrainian term for this period is bezdorizhzhia - roadlessness - and it will last until the ground freezes.


Unrelated, but this ought to be compulsory watching for the western procurement officials who are trying to do everything with wheeled vehicles because tracks are expensive

Nice detail from the Ukrainian military's morning report:

On September 26, the Russian invaders sent to Lyman a column of seven tanks crewed by newly-mobilized men. They had no training to learn how to drive tanks or fire their weapons. Two of the tanks were in road accidents.

https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/157535 ... hzTmOws7tw

The more hardware the Russians lose in the hands of inept troops the better.

The training of Ukrainian troops in the UK continues.

Quite the contrast to what the mobiks are getting in the way of preparation.

There's also a brief shot of a Warrior IFV. I'm guessing its either being a standin for a BMP or it's to provide some opposition, though it would be fantastic if some could be provided.

Russian soldier is offered a cigarette by others in uniform that meet him, then has it pointed out to him he's now a POW.

Is there snow on the ground in Ukraine already? In f.cking September? bl..dy hell, these conscripts with nothing but a yoga mat and sleeping bag.

lpm wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:28 pm Is there snow on the ground in Ukraine already? In f.cking September? bl..dy hell, these conscripts with nothing but a yoga mat and sleeping bag.

Outside of the bit of the Carpathians that runs through the country, I'd be very surprised, and they are nowhere near the front. Temperatures in Ukraine are 15-25 by day and not much less by night, warmer in the south and east, wetter in the north.

It won't be that long, though, until temperatures really do start to fall. Meanwhile, it's rainy enough for the start of the mud season - aka bezdorizhzhia or rasputitsa.

That means the garrison in Lyman, which is reported to be several battalions, is in trouble; they only have the corridor between Zarichne and Yampil to bring supplies in, or to retreat, and with autumn bringing rain, the Zherebets might start to fill up a bit too. The situation is shown quite clearly on the map. This one's by Ilia Ponomorenko of the Kyiv Independent. It doesn't contain any more information than the previous map I posted, but I like the annotations.

My mistake, it's conscripts somewhere still in Russia who are left in the snow. They haven't made it to the mud and rain of Ukraine yet.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... 7971773440

Yampil is liberated. This is roughly what the situation is as best we can tell. Map from MilitaryLandNet.



The corridor for the Russians is damn narrow. At the most conservative estimate, it's a dozen kilometres, but it could well be less. The one escape the Russians have now is to try and sneak out through the streets of Zarichne and Tors'ke, but there's reports of possible Ukrainian reconnaissance groups already in Tors'ke.

Pro-Russian channels are talking about encirclement. While praising those defending their hold on Lyman, they are rather missing the point - Ukraine's not trying to attack Lyman. They are going for Yampil->Tor'ske->Zariche and Kolodyazi->Zarichne. The goal's not to storm Lyman, but to encircle it.

Russians look to be trying to leave Lyman

In previous encirclements, the Russians have been able to slip out before the jaws fully close. They have, however, tended to leave vast amounts of materiel behind, and while the details are murky, one or more very high value prisoners were likely captured in Izyum.

Getting out of the Lyman salient is going to be very difficult for them. Getting out with vehicles etc intact, more so. Ukrainian forces will know their routes out, and it's quite possible they'll have snuck ambush teams into position, as they have done previously, to attack retreating units.

EACLucifer wrote: Fri Sep 30, 2022 12:28 pm Russians look to be trying to leave Lyman

In previous encirclements, the Russians have been able to slip out before the jaws fully close. They have, however, tended to leave vast amounts of materiel behind, and while the details are murky, one or more very high value prisoners were likely captured in Izyum.

Getting out of the Lyman salient is going to be very difficult for them. Getting out with vehicles etc intact, more so. Ukrainian forces will know their routes out, and it's quite possible they'll have snuck ambush teams into position, as they have done previously, to attack retreating units.

Possible that the image is of them leaving nearby Zarichne
https://twitter.com/blue_sauron/status/ ... 2cLxDGoEuQ

Woodchopper wrote: Fri Sep 30, 2022 1:33 pm

EACLucifer wrote: Fri Sep 30, 2022 12:28 pm Russians look to be trying to leave Lyman

In previous encirclements, the Russians have been able to slip out before the jaws fully close. They have, however, tended to leave vast amounts of materiel behind, and while the details are murky, one or more very high value prisoners were likely captured in Izyum.

Getting out of the Lyman salient is going to be very difficult for them. Getting out with vehicles etc intact, more so. Ukrainian forces will know their routes out, and it's quite possible they'll have snuck ambush teams into position, as they have done previously, to attack retreating units.

Possible that the image is of them leaving nearby Zarichne
https://twitter.com/blue_sauron/status/ ... 2cLxDGoEuQ

Quite possible. Zarichne is part of the same salient, though.

And not the only footage, just the only footage I'm willing to post here.

I've mentioned the M30 guided rocket before, but it seems they've finally arrived in Ukraine.

Like M31 GMLRS rockets, these are fired by M142 HIMARS and M270 MLRS launchers, and like M31s they are accurate and fly pretty fast. Unlike the M31s, which have a relatively conventional blast-frag warhead, these are designed to explode before they get to their target. The explosive power of the warhead is negligible, and not designed to cause damage, instead, it is designed to scatter the main payload; more than a hundred and eighty thousand tungsten pellets.

These warheads are pretty advanced, and while conceptually similar to Shrapnel rounds, which were in use in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries modern guidance systems make them infinitely more effective. It's a signal that the US is very serious about aid to Ukraine, as these are very modern missiles.

Another sign of that is the announcement of another eighteen HIMARS launchers over the next two years. These don't change anything in battlefield terms, as GMLRS usage seems to be dictated by the availability of ammunition. What this does do, though, is make it very clear that the US is not deterred by the khuilo's antics.

Drobysheve.

It had been a key part of the Russian line northwest of Lyman.

Looks like Lyman has been completely surrounded and there are about 5000 RU troops in there who were explicitly refused permission to withdraw.

ETA

Looks like UKR forces are chasing whatever RU forces that got out of Lyman into Kremina, NW of Lyman.

https://mobile.twitter.com/mhmck/status ... 5435636737

bjn wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 8:33 am Looks like Lyman has been completely surrounded and there are about 5000 RU troops in there who were explicitly refused permission to withdraw.

It's easy for a dictator to demand "Not One Step Back!". In practise, it tends to go badly.

Video contains estimates based upon satellite images of Russian tank numbers: https://twitter.com/Rebel44CZ/status/15 ... kQhl1QANmg

tl;dr Russia can probably keep up the current rate of loss for a year and a half. Could continue for three years with reduced numbers. It'll probably run out of trained tank crews before it runs out of tanks.

See also the thread for some other estimates.

Not discussed in the video but the quality of tanks will very likely decrease as they scrape the barrel.

I saw a story of a submariner being put in as a Russian tank crew with a few days training. Not going to end well.

Woodchopper wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 8:35 am Video contains estimates based upon satellite images of Russian tank numbers: https://twitter.com/Rebel44CZ/status/15 ... kQhl1QANmg

tl;dr Russia can probably keep up the current rate of loss for a year and a half. Could continue for three years with reduced numbers. It'll probably run out of trained tank crews before it runs out of tanks.

See also the thread for some other estimates.

Not discussed in the video but the quality of tanks will very likely decrease as they scrape the barrel.

Didn’t watch the video, so he may have covers it. A lot of those tanks are stored in the open (Russian winters are a bastard) and need significant amount of work to be made operable.

bjn wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 8:46 am

Woodchopper wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 8:35 am Video contains estimates based upon satellite images of Russian tank numbers: https://twitter.com/Rebel44CZ/status/15 ... kQhl1QANmg

tl;dr Russia can probably keep up the current rate of loss for a year and a half. Could continue for three years with reduced numbers. It'll probably run out of trained tank crews before it runs out of tanks.

See also the thread for some other estimates.

Not discussed in the video but the quality of tanks will very likely decrease as they scrape the barrel.

Didn’t watch the video, so he may have covers it. A lot of those tanks are stored in the open (Russian winters are a bastard) and need significant amount of work to be made operable.

Exactly, he’s counted the numbers stored in the open and compared recent numbers to a year ago. Which should be the numbers taken out of storage and put into active service.

Woodchopper wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 9:02 am

bjn wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 8:46 am

Woodchopper wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 8:35 am Video contains estimates based upon satellite images of Russian tank numbers: https://twitter.com/Rebel44CZ/status/15 ... kQhl1QANmg

tl;dr Russia can probably keep up the current rate of loss for a year and a half. Could continue for three years with reduced numbers. It'll probably run out of trained tank crews before it runs out of tanks.

See also the thread for some other estimates.

Not discussed in the video but the quality of tanks will very likely decrease as they scrape the barrel.

Didn’t watch the video, so he may have covers it. A lot of those tanks are stored in the open (Russian winters are a bastard) and need significant amount of work to be made operable.

Exactly, he’s counted the numbers stored in the open and compared recent numbers to a year ago. Which should be the numbers taken out of storage and put into active service.

The obvious question is how many of those in storage are suitable for that? Especially as some may be needed as parts donors for the others.

This affected western supplies too - Britain appears to be cannibalising a few M270s to keep the rest going, and this also seems to have been the case with the Gepards and will surely be the case if the Spanish Leopard 2s ever end up involved.

And of course a tank is far more than armour and a gun. Without the ability to full understand what's going on outside, it's a deathtrap, and the electronics and sighting required for that are both the most likely components to be in poor condition/stolen, and the hardest to replace under sanctions. I'd rather have a T-55 with modern sights - or frankly a Matilda 2 with modern sights if such a contrivance were ever to come into being* - over the thick armour of a T-72 and no way to get a good idea of what's going on outside.


*Deeply unlikely, but god knows in this war, where Cossacks are using Maxim guns - sometimes with holographic sights bodged on - and microwave ray guns in the same units, and the Russian client militias are adding T-34-85s and antique bronze cannon to their checkpoints.

Woodchopper wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 8:35 am
tl;dr Russia can probably keep up the current rate of loss for a year and a half. Could continue for three years with reduced numbers. It'll probably run out of trained tank crews before it runs out of tanks.

We might also expect the attrition rate to increase as the quality of tank and crew diminishes... so that 18 month figure could come down quite a bit.