Scrutable

Have we had a response from the government yet from the Cobra meeting?

I have watched Sturgeon's response.

lpm wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:29 pm Set up a rota.

Take it in turns to work in the hospital laundry, sewage plant etc, then go to a govt concentration camp for your allotted virus month.

I'm seriously being pressurised to return to care work.

4 weeks behind Italy???

Presumably they're thinking that Italy's testing was so bad that their numbers were lower than they should've been, and that ours is much better. I think both those points are probably b.llsh.t. We're around two weeks behind Italy.

Essentially they're saying that people can't self-isolate for very long, so you have to control the advice to do so for the time when the spread is most dangerous, and that isn't now.

What are you basing these assertions on?

Are we doubting the scientists here? Here? Of all places?

Well, saying that we're four weeks behind Italy is a strange thing to say. Four weeks ago, Italy had 3 cases. We have near 600, which is what Italy had two weeks ago. So, saying that we're four weeks behind suggests they didn't test well, and that we're testing better.

They are psychologists. That's what is behind the plan - it's not scientists in the same way as mathematicians.

They are saying that Italy's approach - and other EU countries - is not going to work. Effectively they are saying their curves under lockdown will flatten for a couple of weeks, or even months, but will then rise up exponentially again, requiring repeated lockdowns. That is is fundamentally unstoppable. Instead the UK is going to try for the same sort of shape, with less of the stop-go-stop-go.

The UK is claiming South Korea, Japan etc - all the flatter line places - will all fail and return to the exponential world, having used up their ammo. That Ireland will need to return to shut schools, that Italy will go through it all again. While the UK has preserved its measures, accepted elevated levels, and then only strike at the very worst of the peak.

It's an amazing experiment.

Well, it's one approach.

The US is going to be an experiment, with different states doing a good range of actions. The UK is a clear outlier from EU countries. South Korea and China have individual approaches.

One day in the future we will know exactly what should have been done.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:38 pm Well, saying that we're four weeks behind Italy is a strange thing to say. Four weeks ago, Italy had 3 cases. We have near 600, which is what Italy had two weeks ago. So, saying that we're four weeks behind suggests they didn't test well, and that we're testing better.

Tested and reported cases. The bigger message in that statement was that they suspect there were far more undetected cases in Italy at that time.

But it is guesswork I suspect.

They're also saying that the spread, in general, is to closer friends and family than general public situations like standing in a football stadium watching a match. So whilst you might get some transmission in those circumstances, you won't get that much, as long as people with symptoms are self-isolating. So, again, there's no need to stop football matches and so on.

Which, again, is one way of doing it.

headshot wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:53 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:38 pm Well, saying that we're four weeks behind Italy is a strange thing to say. Four weeks ago, Italy had 3 cases. We have near 600, which is what Italy had two weeks ago. So, saying that we're four weeks behind suggests they didn't test well, and that we're testing better.

Tested and reported cases. The bigger message in that statement was that they suspect there were far more undetected cases in Italy at that time.

But it is guesswork I suspect.

Exactly, that's what I mean. It's not so much about the hit rate of testing in Italy per se but the relative level between us and them. They're saying that our 590 cases is pretty good, and Italy's 590 two weeks ago was far too low and should've been much higher. I'm just not convinced that that is the case.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:54 pm They're also saying that the spread, in general, is to closer friends and family than general public situations like standing in a football stadium watching a match. So whilst you might get some transmission in those circumstances, you won't get that much, as long as people with symptoms are self-isolating. So, again, there's no need to stop football matches and so on.

Which, again, is one way of doing it.

How can that policy make sense? If I'm infectious but with no symptoms, I am a big risk to closer friends and family. The additional risk of being in a football stadium is much less - but it's still an additional risk. It raises R0 from 2.2 to 2.25 or whatever.

The policy is clearly to allow exponential growth, at a slightly diminished rate through self-isolating, and not attempt to get to flat lining like South Korea or China excl Hubei. This will puzzle the public when we overtake other EU countries. It'll be a tough task to explain that our ultimate peaks are going to be lower because we still have ammo in reserve. And the public is going to be puzzled at being allowed to go to football stadiums - but matches elsewhere being called off because players have Covid, no NBA or cycling events, no Euro 2020 or Toyko Olympics.

Previous pandemics have gone in waves. Perhaps they're trying to prevent the waves.

It's better for the economy, and it fits into the "plucky little Britain bravely soldiering on in a world gone mad" messaging about Brexit.

And there's maybe some soft-power benefits to behaving like USA rather than Europe while the UK wrenches itself asunder.

secret squirrel wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:41 pm Tourism way down in Thailand due to virus fears. Lower tourism means less food for monkeys. Less food for monkeys means thousand strong monkey battle.

This is fun. I always enjoy a good monkey story.

However, it's not just monkeys that depend on tourism to eat. As others have said about events companies etc, one bad season will cause a lot of people big problems. Hopefully it's only monkeys that will erupt into large-scale violence.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:56 pm

headshot wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:53 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:38 pm Well, saying that we're four weeks behind Italy is a strange thing to say. Four weeks ago, Italy had 3 cases. We have near 600, which is what Italy had two weeks ago. So, saying that we're four weeks behind suggests they didn't test well, and that we're testing better.

Tested and reported cases. The bigger message in that statement was that they suspect there were far more undetected cases in Italy at that time.

But it is guesswork I suspect.

Exactly, that's what I mean. It's not so much about the hit rate of testing in Italy per se but the relative level between us and them. They're saying that our 590 cases is pretty good, and Italy's 590 two weeks ago was far too low and should've been much higher. I'm just not convinced that that is the case.

Well Sir Patrick also said there are probably about 10,000 cases in UK right now (he gave a spread too, which I can't recall exactly), so maybe his model has Italy at 10k four weeks ago?
Or is that equally odd?

On this chart, which I think we had before, the Prime Minister and the experts pretty much directly implied our plan is to keep on the exponential curve - just at a lower level than the 33% line. Say it's a straightline between the 33% line and the Japan line.

Other countries will start bending right in a couple of weeks, Korea style, due to their school closures and >100 people bans. The question is: will the UK overtake? In 28 days, will we have overtaken flat liners? Or will they have bent upwards again, their flatter lines being only temporary, unable to sustain lockdowns due to the psychological problem of self-isolation.

We'd then strike, doing our own flat line attempt at a much later point and a higher level, succeeding while Netherlands etc are out of new measures to deploy. We'd be losing during April, but better off than others in May and June.

In the briefing they predicted that the peak would be in 10-12 weeks time.

Italy is currently at 1016 deaths from (or "with") CoVid-19. Presumably it's a lot harder to miss deaths than asymptomatic viral infections. 10,000 cases four weeks ago, an R_0 of 2.0 and an infectious time of about a week would mean about 1% of the Italian population has already had, and recovered from, the virus by now. Which would be good if it were true. (And the peak would be about a month from now).

Nice text on what 'flattening the curve' means, and why it is a good idea.

Science Alert: This One Graph Shows Why 'Flattening The Curve' Is So Critical For COVID-19 Right Now

Nothing that regular readers don't know already, but worth having as a link to give to others.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:09 pm Previous pandemics have gone in waves. Perhaps they're trying to prevent the waves.

So PM Johnson has been replaced by King Canute.

That makes sense.

Pucksoppet wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:34 am

lpm wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:03 am It's reached the Pacific islands. Quite amazing that in 3 months it can go from a single person in inland China to the most remote places on the planet.

That's mechanised transport for you. Then again, I wonder how long it took European diseases to sweep South America once the conquistadors arrived?

The trouble is, all the restrictions now sound a lot like stable doors slamming long after the horsed have bolted. Had they been enacted earlier, the severity of the outcomes could well have been reduced. Perhaps people will learn for the next time. Perhaps.

Well my daughter was telling me about geography lectures she was having, tying Kazak tree rimgs to waves of the Black Death in Europe.

The lag seemed to be about 2 years from ideal conditions for marmot population booms

There's a serious problem coming up: people at home not too ill are not going to be officially tested for Covid.

The government rule is: if you get a sore throat and temperature, or a cough, then you must self-isolate for seven days. Staying two metres at all times from other household members, if possible in a separate bed and using a separate bathroom (from the several to choose from in your home). ETA: other household members do not even need to isolate, they can continue to go to work according to the official guidance.

You will not be tested. You will not be diagnosed. You should NOT call 111.

It's not at all clear how statistics will be compiled and whether we will lose sight of what is happening on the ground. The death statistics won't lie - but come with a hell of a lag from infection date.