Scrutable

plodder wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 12:11 pm

Stranger Mouse wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 10:14 am
The characterisation of the prevailing views on here as we think Putin is an idiot (rather than a monster) or that the Russians will be pushed back in a matter of weeks is such a massive strawman that it has undergone gravitational collapse and ripped a hole in the fabric of space time

Let me be clear. People here think Russia has made an almighty mess of the invasion. This is not even close to a mischaracterisation, it’s exactly what they’re saying. And they are interlacing it with high-tempo breathless tech-drivel. And if you’re daft enough to confuse that with “analysis” then fair enough.

plodder wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 10:03 am I see a lot of people getting very excited about this copy pasta but they're not admitting that they're being bathtub admirals - instead they get extremely defensive when their game playing is challenged.

plodder wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 12:11 pm

lpm wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 12:49 pm

plodder wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 10:03 am I see a lot of people getting very excited about this copy pasta but they're not admitting that they're being bathtub admirals - instead they get extremely defensive when their game playing is challenged.

False. There have been repeated acknowledgements from all of us that we're inexpert in all of this. I could point you to a dozen examples.

EACLucifer wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 12:58 pm

lpm wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 12:49 pm

plodder wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 10:03 am I see a lot of people getting very excited about this copy pasta but they're not admitting that they're being bathtub admirals - instead they get extremely defensive when their game playing is challenged.

False. There have been repeated acknowledgements from all of us that we're inexpert in all of this. I could point you to a dozen examples.

In addition, there's a weird assumption that because someone's on twitter, they can't be an expert. Today, I checked updates from the people that tracked down the men that poisoned Navalny, several people capable of indentifying a vehicle wreck from the shattered remains after heavy shelling and checking it against other wrecks to avoid double counting, Russia's former foreign minister, and several generals.

Stranger Mouse wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 1:16 pm I’m also at a loss as to where Plodder got the impression that the consensus view here was that Putin is an idiot. I think he is an evil sh.t but I wouldn’t say he was stupid and I’m pretty sure that nobody else on the thread has said he is either. Perhaps Plodder can point to a number of tweets where this accusation of Putin was made. Or a couple. Or just one? Because this appears to be another fabrication.

Isn’t forum rule 13:c about constant misrepresentation of other posters? Because this is getting silly now.

Edited to correct 13d to 13c

Gfamily wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 1:27 pm

Stranger Mouse wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 1:16 pm I’m also at a loss as to where Plodder got the impression that the consensus view here was that Putin is an idiot. I think he is an evil sh.t but I wouldn’t say he was stupid and I’m pretty sure that nobody else on the thread has said he is either. Perhaps Plodder can point to a number of tweets where this accusation of Putin was made. Or a couple. Or just one? Because this appears to be another fabrication.

Isn’t forum rule 13:c about constant misrepresentation of other posters? Because this is getting silly now.

Edited to correct 13d to 13c

Didn't lpm say it once, in response to plod's claims that we all thought it
Edit.
No lpm didn't.
Until plod made the claim, the only use (on this thread at least) was referring to 'some idiot gave someone a map showing an arrow going into Moldova'

Stranger Mouse wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 3:27 pm Just as well I know nothing about military stuff otherwise I’d be sh.tting myself at the Russians using a hypersonic missile

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60806151

Bird on a Fire wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 4:10 pm

Gfamily wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 1:27 pm

Stranger Mouse wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 1:16 pm I’m also at a loss as to where Plodder got the impression that the consensus view here was that Putin is an idiot. I think he is an evil sh.t but I wouldn’t say he was stupid and I’m pretty sure that nobody else on the thread has said he is either. Perhaps Plodder can point to a number of tweets where this accusation of Putin was made. Or a couple. Or just one? Because this appears to be another fabrication.

Isn’t forum rule 13:c about constant misrepresentation of other posters? Because this is getting silly now.

Edited to correct 13d to 13c

Didn't lpm say it once, in response to plod's claims that we all thought it
Edit.
No lpm didn't.
Until plod made the claim, the only use (on this thread at least) was referring to 'some idiot gave someone a map showing an arrow going into Moldova'

I don't think "idiot" was meant to be a direct quote.

It does seem to me that the consensus view is that Putin launched a misguided invasion expecting to take over the whole of Ukraine with minimal resistance in the course of a few days without any preparation or capacity for a longer-term war of attrition.

Or, in other words, an idiot.

Bird on a Fire wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 4:12 pm

Stranger Mouse wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 3:27 pm Just as well I know nothing about military stuff otherwise I’d be sh.tting myself at the Russians using a hypersonic missile

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60806151

To be fair if you read the article it's quite clear that hypersonic missiles aren't especially interesting or scary.

If you've already shat yourself I'm sure we can find you some man pads.

Bird on a Fire wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 4:12 pm

Stranger Mouse wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 3:27 pm Just as well I know nothing about military stuff otherwise I’d be sh.tting myself at the Russians using a hypersonic missile

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60806151

To be fair if you read the article it's quite clear that hypersonic missiles aren't especially interesting or scary.

If you've already shat yourself I'm sure we can find you some man pads.

Stranger Mouse wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 4:40 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 4:10 pm

Gfamily wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 1:27 pm
Didn't lpm say it once, in response to plod's claims that we all thought it
Edit.
No lpm didn't.
Until plod made the claim, the only use (on this thread at least) was referring to 'some idiot gave someone a map showing an arrow going into Moldova'

I don't think "idiot" was meant to be a direct quote.

It does seem to me that the consensus view is that Putin launched a misguided invasion expecting to take over the whole of Ukraine with minimal resistance in the course of a few days without any preparation or capacity for a longer-term war of attrition.

Or, in other words, an idiot.

Absolute bollocks. For a start nobody has suggested that Putin thought would be able to take over the whole of Ukraine in a few days. Absolutely nobody. Point at a post where anyone has said this. You can’t because you’ve made it up.

Saying he misjudged the situation (as many many people did) is not the same as saying he is an idiot and it is utter bollocks to suggest they are the same thing. Many people have said that he had every reason to think he could have got away with it because of previous smash and grabs. Nobody has actually said wasn’t expecting a longer term war of attrition either. Most people who have suggested he thought he may be able to obtain control of key targets in a few days had the concept of a longer term campaign for the rest of the country baked in.

Stop making stuff up

Woodchopper wrote: Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:56 am Interesting. Article states that while the invasion is talked about on Russian media, government restrictions mean that there’s almost no coverage of what’s happening. Russian media isn’t even making an attempt to produce positive propaganda films etc.

https://www.ft.com/content/73f87533-749 ... ce0a9265bd

Suggests firstly that Putin is nervous of popular opposition. Secondly, perhaps another piece of the jigsaw which suggests that the Russian leadership believed that it would all be over after a few days, and didn’t plan for a protracted war.

Pishwish wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 5:14 pm I thought that boaf was being needlessly offensive, untiI i got the pun. It will be interesting to see what the experts think, I thought the previous consensus was meh on hypersonic missiles. The cynic in me thinks that wars are like weapons showcases; Turkey is going to be selling lots of drones now and maybe Russia wants to salvage its reputation as a purveyor of high tech weapons.

Pishwish wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 5:14 pm I thought that boaf was being needlessly offensive, untiI i got the pun. It will be interesting to see what the experts think, I thought the previous consensus was meh on hypersonic missiles. The cynic in me thinks that wars are like weapons showcases; Turkey is going to be selling lots of drones now and maybe Russia wants to salvage its reputation as a purveyor of high tech weapons.

"I don't view it as that significant," says James Acton, nuclear policy specialist at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Bird on a Fire wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 5:18 pm

Stranger Mouse wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 4:40 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 4:10 pm
I don't think "idiot" was meant to be a direct quote.

It does seem to me that the consensus view is that Putin launched a misguided invasion expecting to take over the whole of Ukraine with minimal resistance in the course of a few days without any preparation or capacity for a longer-term war of attrition.

Or, in other words, an idiot.

Absolute bollocks. For a start nobody has suggested that Putin thought would be able to take over the whole of Ukraine in a few days. Absolutely nobody. Point at a post where anyone has said this. You can’t because you’ve made it up.

Saying he misjudged the situation (as many many people did) is not the same as saying he is an idiot and it is utter bollocks to suggest they are the same thing. Many people have said that he had every reason to think he could have got away with it because of previous smash and grabs. Nobody has actually said wasn’t expecting a longer term war of attrition either. Most people who have suggested he thought he may be able to obtain control of key targets in a few days had the concept of a longer term campaign for the rest of the country baked in.

Stop making stuff up

Not sure what you're so angry about.

Here's a quote from page 17, for instance:

Woodchopper wrote: Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:56 am Interesting. Article states that while the invasion is talked about on Russian media, government restrictions mean that there’s almost no coverage of what’s happening. Russian media isn’t even making an attempt to produce positive propaganda films etc.

https://www.ft.com/content/73f87533-749 ... ce0a9265bd

Suggests firstly that Putin is nervous of popular opposition. Secondly, perhaps another piece of the jigsaw which suggests that the Russian leadership believed that it would all be over after a few days, and didn’t plan for a protracted war.

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Post by Woodchopper » Tue Jan 18, 2022 7:46 pm

We should avoid assuming that the world can be played like a game of Risk. Its one thing to take territory, another to hold it.

Firstly, If Ukrainians resist a Russian invasion then Russia will need a lot of troops to hold the territory its taken.

We can draw an analogy with the Troubles in Northern Ireland. There were never more than a few hundred active members of the Provisional IRA, INLA and other republican groups. They were supported by many more in the population.

At the height of the Troubles, the UK had circa 20 000 troops deployed, plus about 8 000 in the Ulster Defence Regiment and a similar number in the Royal Ulster Constabulary. So we're looking at about 36 000 in a territory that contained 1.5 million people in 1970. Those pro-UK government forces also had the committed support of a majority of the loyalist population in Northern Ireland.

The big question is whether even a few hundred Ukrainians would resist a Russian invasion. If they were to then the territories to the east of the Dnieper are enormously larger than Northern Ireland, and while its mostly rural, there are several large urban areas. Kharkiv has about 1.5 million people and there are several cities with populations of hundreds of thousands. Ukrainian partisans would presumably be well equipped by the government in the west of the country, and would very likely be supplied by the US and other European states.

Russia probably could find enough troops to subdue large parts of Ukraine, but would Putin want to do that? A bl..dy and indefinite counter-insurgency is not an outcome that anyone wants to achieve.

Secondly, Ukraine has been fighting an intense hot war in the east of the country since 2014. Since then the Ukrainian army has been rebuilt, and is well trained and experienced. Its got about 200 000 active personnel and about 250 000 reserves. Certainly, the Russian armed forces are stronger and better equipped and would probably win. But in the event of a full on invasion the Ukrainian armed forces would still be able to inflict a lot of pain.

So if they were to plan an invasion of Ukraine east of the Dnieper, Putin's generals would be looking at initial heavy casualties which would likely be followed by indefinite partisan warfare which would take up hundreds of thousands troops.

IMHO, if it comes to war Russia is more likely to modestly expand the territory controlled by the Donetsk republics, or stage temporary raids or air strikes designed to destroy Ukrainian infrastructure without permanently occupying large amounts of territory.

Bird on a Fire wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 5:23 pm

Pishwish wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 5:14 pm I thought that boaf was being needlessly offensive, untiI i got the pun. It will be interesting to see what the experts think, I thought the previous consensus was meh on hypersonic missiles. The cynic in me thinks that wars are like weapons showcases; Turkey is going to be selling lots of drones now and maybe Russia wants to salvage its reputation as a purveyor of high tech weapons.

With hindsight I should maybe have put MANPADS in capitals. It's a serious wtf of a weapons name - they normally sound all space-age and violent, like Skyfucker or Thundercock, but apparently it's also acceptable to name them after nappies for folk with prostate issues.

Stranger Mouse wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 5:32 pm Almost 50 pages of posts and you managed to cherry pick that one.

Stranger Mouse wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 5:32 pmAnd f.ck off with the “why are you so angry?” b.llsh.t.

Bird on a Fire wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 5:50 pm

Stranger Mouse wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 5:32 pm Almost 50 pages of posts and you managed to cherry pick that one.

It's hardly the only example. Have we been reading the same thread? I really don't think it's a mischaracterisation to say that people think Putin expected a rapid resolution to the invasion, that preparations were poor/non-existent, that he underestimated the task at hand, that he has bad/no advice, and that he might be getting old/crazy/ill.

Stranger Mouse wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 5:32 pmAnd f.ck off with the “why are you so angry?” b.llsh.t.

Sure, as long as you f.ck off with the being angry b.llsh.t I have literally no idea what's upset you but this is a strange reaction to my post.

Stranger Mouse wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 5:55 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 5:50 pm

Stranger Mouse wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 5:32 pm Almost 50 pages of posts and you managed to cherry pick that one.

It's hardly the only example. Have we been reading the same thread? I really don't think it's a mischaracterisation to say that people think Putin expected a rapid resolution to the invasion, that preparations were poor/non-existent, that he underestimated the task at hand, that he has bad/no advice, and that he might be getting old/crazy/ill.

Stranger Mouse wrote: Sat Mar 19, 2022 5:32 pmAnd f.ck off with the “why are you so angry?” b.llsh.t.

Sure, as long as you f.ck off with the being angry b.llsh.t I have literally no idea what's upset you but this is a strange reaction to my post.

A rapid resolution to the invasion is not the same as taking control of the whole country. Preparations being poor is not the same as them being non existent. Underestimating the task at hand does not make him an idiot despite your efforts to make them the same thing. Even if he is old/crazy/ill or even if someone stated their opinion that he was this is not the same as him being an idiot.