Scrutable

Some isolated tweets suggesting UKR progress in the North of the South (if you see what I mean) North of Kherson.

I’m is seeing quite a bit of unconfirmed Twitter chatter about big breakthroughs near Kherson.

bjn wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 9:08 pm I’m is seeing quite a bit of unconfirmed Twitter chatter about big breakthroughs near Kherson.

It's looking more solid.

I’m seeing tweets along the line of this, about a 25km advance north of Kherson.

bjn wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 9:36 pm I’m seeing tweets along the line of this, about a 25km advance north of Kherson.

Haven't got any solid confirmation so far past Zolota Balka, though that doesn't mean further advances aren't possible or likely. Even Zolota Balka's quite an advance by the standards of the Kherson front.

If that map - which is I think based on what Russian sources are claiming - is correct, then the advance is turning Russian positions in the north of the oblast into a large, quite exposed salient.

The UKR forces can’t advance too far down the river as they will expose their right flank and lines of supply. I’ve seen tweets of 75km advances which I don’t believe and would be dangerous if true.

Separate thought. They only initially kitted up for a very short war over spring and summer. Winter is about to arrive. If their stockpile of winter kit is as looted and unserviceable as much of their other kit has been, the Russian squaddie is in for a very bad time. Even if their mums try to ship stuff out to them, how much will actually make it with chaotic lines of supply and FSM knows how many thefts on the way.

Barbarossa, but with the RU forces having to fight General Winter rather than the Germans?

bjn wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 7:17 am The UKR forces can’t advance too far down the river as they will expose their right flank and lines of supply. I’ve seen tweets of 75km advances which I don’t believe and would be dangerous if true.

Separate thought. They only initially kitted up for a very short war over spring and summer. Winter is about to arrive. If their stockpile of winter kit is as looted and unserviceable as much of their other kit has been, the Russian squaddie is in for a very bad time. Even if their mums try to ship stuff out to them, how much will actually make it with chaotic lines of supply and FSM knows how many thefts on the way.

Barbarossa, but with the RU forces having to fight General Winter rather than the Germans?

At least one Russian governor has complained about not having 1.5M winter uniforms

bjn wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 7:17 am The UKR forces can’t advance too far down the river as they will expose their right flank and lines of supply. I’ve seen tweets of 75km advances which I don’t believe and would be dangerous if true.

There's no way it's 75km. While I'd love to eat those words, I'm confident I won't have to. I think this claim comes from conflating the Ukrainians attacking in the direction of Beryslav - which they are - with attacking Beryslav - which they are still well short of.

Ukraine's goal is likely going to be to put pressure on the Russians along the Dnipro, anchor their own left flank on the river, and expose Russian positions that the Russian's thought were protected by having their own right flank anchored on the river. If this advance develops, it could become the left-flank pincer for a Ukrainian pincer movement where the right-flank pincer would be the bridgehead over the Inhulets, which currently seems to reach about as far as Bruskyns'ke. The possibility it might develop that way will likely be of great concern for the Russians in the north of the oblast, but it isn't there yet.

IF they've reached Dudchany, which is what the map you posted shows, then broadening the front as far as Nova Kamyan'ka puts the Russian stronghold of Davydiv Brid in a very dangerous position. It's main supply route is already cut at Bruskyns'ke, and this would put it's secondary supply routes under fire control.

Though we must remember we only have solid proof as far as Zolota Balka, which is about 25km north of Dudchany. However, Zolota Balka is about 10-15km south of the previous frontline, so Ukrainian forces have advanced. Reaching Dudchany wouldn't be a 25km advance - it would be closer to 40.

Ultimately, an attack east of the Inhulets is very dangerous for Russia. Their most solid supply route is through Nova Kakhovka, but most of their fortifications are facing a more direct attack from Mykolaiv. A Ukrainian attack could potentially develop to the point it has both flanks anchored on rivers, and could really isolate the Russians in Kherson itself. No competent general would allow that without retreating across the Dnipro, but a competent general would have withdrawn from Lyman earlier, and not left troops to be slaughtered in droves as they fled through positions already occupied by Ukrainian reconnaisance groups. Taking all the land east of the Inhulets would also allow 203mm Pions and even 240mm mortars - Ukraine wasn't supposed to have any of these aside from one in a museum, yet they've been seen in action - to get rid of the Antonivsky bridge for good. PLEASE NOTE THIS PARAGRAPH REFERS TO WHAT UKRAINE MAY WANT TO DO, NOT WHAT THEY ARE CURRENTLY DOING.

A few vehicles have apparently crossed the Antonivsky bridge, but it didn't go well for all of them.

I'm not sure if it drove onto a hole, or a hole opened up under it. There's holes right through the bridge deck now, so this was a very reckless move. I still wish that America would fit some proper demo warheads to GMLRS rockets though - 2/3rds of the weight of the M31's warhead is dead weight as far as bridge-busting is concerned.

Separate thought. They only initially kitted up for a very short war over spring and summer. Winter is about to arrive. If their stockpile of winter kit is as looted and unserviceable as much of their other kit has been, the Russian squaddie is in for a very bad time. Even if their mums try to ship stuff out to them, how much will actually make it with chaotic lines of supply and FSM knows how many thefts on the way.

Barbarossa, but with the RU forces having to fight General Winter rather than the Germans?

That's looking quite plausible. NATO and private donors are both doing their damndest to get proper winter kit - baselayer and sweaters and things - to Ukrainian troops, while we're already getting reports of Russian winter kit being absent from its warehouses. Whether or not it was made and sold off or just not made at all is unclear. Telnyashkas are warm, but nowhere near warm enough.

Very few roads in Ukraine are on Google Streetview.

But that road from the dam at Nova Kakhovka, all the way up to Dudchany and beyond is an exception. Long and straight, an A-road in our terms. Two or three bridges. 35 miles to Dudchany, which is London to Reading.

It's worth scrolling through Streetview for a bit to sense the vastness of this territory. Endless flat land of nothing but sunflowers.

First verification south of Zolota Balka - Mykhailivka




There's lots of Mykhailivkas in Ukraine. This one's about 7km south of Zolota Balka. Remember these photos are sometimes released days after the event, but it's confirmation the advance didn't stop at Zolota Balka.

lpm wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 8:28 am Very few roads in Ukraine are on Google Streetview.

But that road from the dam at Nova Kakhovka, all the way up to Dudchany and beyond is an exception. Long and straight, an A-road in our terms. Two or three bridges. 35 miles to Dudchany, which is London to Reading.

It's worth scrolling through Streetview for a bit to sense the vastness of this territory. Endless flat land of nothing but sunflowers.

This is the Pontic Steppe. It's open, low lying country that just goes on and on and on and on and on, all the way from the Danube to the Urals.

I've seen claims that large advances here are unlikely as the lines are some of the most fortified in the country, aside from those areas where the front hasn't moved since 2015. However, I'm not sure how good the Russian second line is, and if that first line is ruptured, what are they going to use as a focus for regrouping? There's villages, and generally advances occur village to village, but they are small, and there aren't many of them, with large areas of open fields of sunflowers and watermelons.

The Ukrainians have also crossed the Inhulets south of Davydiv Brid and are pushing south-east (heading for Mylove/Novokairy?) If they achieve that they leave a large swathe of Russian-held territory with nowhere to go but the ~2km wide Dnipro itself. How fast flowing is the river at this time of year?

Martin_B wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 9:20 am The Ukrainians have also crossed the Inhulets south of Davydiv Brid and are pushing south-east (heading for Mylove/Novokairy?) If they achieve that they leave a large swathe of Russian-held territory with nowhere to go but the ~2km wide Dnipro itself. How fast flowing is the river at this time of year?

Above Nova Kakhovka, it's a reservoir. Very wide, not fast flowing, but very wide.

The bridgehead's been there a long time. It expanded at the start of the Kherson offensive, then everyone got distracted by Kharkiv. There's unreliable reports of Ukrainians at Chkalove, and more reliable ones of them at Bruskyns'ke. It looks like a pincer movement might be developing, and indeed Mylove and Novokairy would be good points to aim for, as it would encircle a lot of Russians. Again, they may not surrender en masse - they didn't in Lyman, instead they were cut down in swathes as they fled past advanced Ukrainian positions - but the threat of encirclement can precipitate a rout.

If the Ukrainians have reached either Dudchany from the north or Chkalove from across the Inhulets, then the bridge at Novokairy and all supply lines west of it as well will be within range of longer ranged tube artillery.

The goal of this operation might be to liberate territory and attrit the Russians, but it may also be to further cut their communications across the Dnipro. An advance to Novokairy would see longer range tube artillery start to threaten crossings around Nova Kakhovka.

And back to the North, it looks like Ukranians have taken Borova, presumably without a fight.
https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/ ... q3hAlVFz_w

If so the front west of Svatove and Kreminna appears to have collapsed. Map in the above linked thread.

EACLucifer wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 1:58 pm

Woodchopper wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 1:47 pm Yes, there’s video which apparently shows large numbers of them getting out with their equipment. If genuine it suggests that Lyman wasn’t surrounded.
https://twitter.com/backandalive/status ... FfAR5Sxh7Q

It's the same footage we were discussing here.

I apologize, it's difficult sometimes to keep track of where I've seen things.

Woodchopper wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 9:59 am

EACLucifer wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 1:58 pm

Woodchopper wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 1:47 pm Yes, there’s video which apparently shows large numbers of them getting out with their equipment. If genuine it suggests that Lyman wasn’t surrounded.
https://twitter.com/backandalive/status ... FfAR5Sxh7Q

It's the same footage we were discussing here.

I apologize, it's difficult sometimes to keep track of where I've seen things.

Easily done. That's why I'm in awe of what the Oryx team have managed re: duplicates.

EACLucifer wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 8:51 am I've seen claims that large advances here are unlikely as the lines are some of the most fortified in the country, aside from those areas where the front hasn't moved since 2015. However, I'm not sure how good the Russian second line is, and if that first line is ruptured, what are they going to use as a focus for regrouping? There's villages, and generally advances occur village to village, but they are small, and there aren't many of them, with large areas of open fields of sunflowers and watermelons.

A key issue here is logistics. Troops won’t defend effectively if they’ve almost run out of ammunition or haven’t had a proper meal for a week.

Ukraine has destroyed the bridges but Russia will be able to get some supplies over by boat. If that flow is a trickle then the defence won’t be strong.

EACLucifer wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 8:03 am

Separate thought. They only initially kitted up for a very short war over spring and summer. Winter is about to arrive. If their stockpile of winter kit is as looted and unserviceable as much of their other kit has been, the Russian squaddie is in for a very bad time. Even if their mums try to ship stuff out to them, how much will actually make it with chaotic lines of supply and FSM knows how many thefts on the way.

Barbarossa, but with the RU forces having to fight General Winter rather than the Germans?

That's looking quite plausible. NATO and private donors are both doing their damndest to get proper winter kit - baselayer and sweaters and things - to Ukrainian troops, while we're already getting reports of Russian winter kit being absent from its warehouses. Whether or not it was made and sold off or just not made at all is unclear. Telnyashkas are warm, but nowhere near warm enough.

One other issue is that without very good winter gear, to stay alive in trenches the troops are going to have to huddle round fires or heaters. That will make them vulnerable to being spotted by opponents with IR sensors. As far as I know the Ukrainians have an advantage there.

Woodchopper wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 10:22 am

EACLucifer wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 8:03 am

Separate thought. They only initially kitted up for a very short war over spring and summer. Winter is about to arrive. If their stockpile of winter kit is as looted and unserviceable as much of their other kit has been, the Russian squaddie is in for a very bad time. Even if their mums try to ship stuff out to them, how much will actually make it with chaotic lines of supply and FSM knows how many thefts on the way.

Barbarossa, but with the RU forces having to fight General Winter rather than the Germans?

That's looking quite plausible. NATO and private donors are both doing their damndest to get proper winter kit - baselayer and sweaters and things - to Ukrainian troops, while we're already getting reports of Russian winter kit being absent from its warehouses. Whether or not it was made and sold off or just not made at all is unclear. Telnyashkas are warm, but nowhere near warm enough.

One other issue is that without very good winter gear, to stay alive in trenches the troops are going to have to huddle round fires or heaters. That will make them vulnerable to being spotted by opponents with IR sensors. As far as I know the Ukrainians have an advantage there.

1.5 million winter uniforms missing.

https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2022/1 ... ssing-news

Also to quote myself in reply to this tweet, Nothing says well-balanced military than prototype hypersonic missiles, nuclear torpedoes, with prototype next generation tanks and aircraft coupled with microcredit being offered for troops to buy their own socks, body armour, and first aid kits

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/ ... zJxfnFEfVw

Part of a thread including links to the requirements and suggestions (body armour is recommended, for example)

ChrisO
@ChrisO_wiki
1/ Newly mobilised Russian troops need possibly thousands of dollars to buy everything from socks to bulletproof vests. But not to worry – Russia's microcredit industry can help!

"Called up? Need to equip? Not given anything? Not enough money for a first aid kit?"
9:21 AM · Oct 3, 2022
·Twitter Web App

As an aside, apparently, the US Army started using petrol stoves in WWII to reduce the risks of having cooking fires, and being silhouetted against the fires at night.

This is what winter looks like. It's from Zolota Balka (just recaptured), looking out over the reservoir.

https://www.google.com/maps/@47.3847118 ... 728!8i4214

lpm wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 11:24 am This is what winter looks like. It's from Zolota Balka (just recaptured), looking out over the reservoir.

https://www.google.com/maps/@47.3847118 ... 728!8i4214

How solid is the ice? ie: can you drive a truck across it.

No comment on whether or not this geolocation is accurate, but it isn't from a crank. It's circa 7.5km from Dudchany.

However, a massive note of caution - it's an administrative building. The sort of thing one would see flying a Ukrainian flag in peacetime. It's not necessarily a recent photo. I checked the EXIF data and it was last modified today, but I don't know if that's because of compression/upload to twitter etc.

ETA: I could only get the EXIF checker to work by saving to my computer first. I bet that's what the last modified date is coming from

EACLucifer wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 2:57 pm No comment on whether or not this geolocation is accurate, but it isn't from a crank. It's circa 7.5km from Dudchany.

However, a massive note of caution - it's an administrative building. The sort of thing one would see flying a Ukrainian flag in peacetime. It's not necessarily a recent photo. I checked the EXIF data and it was last modified today, but I don't know if that's because of compression/upload to twitter etc.

ETA: I could only get the EXIF checker to work by saving to my computer first. I bet that's what the last modified date is coming from

Picture of troops just up the road: https://twitter.com/blue_sauron/status/ ... 0xuH3Q_FsA

Woodchopper wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 4:01 pm

EACLucifer wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 2:57 pm No comment on whether or not this geolocation is accurate, but it isn't from a crank. It's circa 7.5km from Dudchany.

However, a massive note of caution - it's an administrative building. The sort of thing one would see flying a Ukrainian flag in peacetime. It's not necessarily a recent photo. I checked the EXIF data and it was last modified today, but I don't know if that's because of compression/upload to twitter etc.

ETA: I could only get the EXIF checker to work by saving to my computer first. I bet that's what the last modified date is coming from

Picture of troops just up the road: https://twitter.com/blue_sauron/status/ ... 0xuH3Q_FsA

I saw the claim that the Russian MOD of all people reported "With superior tank units in the direction of Zolotaya Balka, Aleksandrovka, the enemy managed to penetrate into the depth of the Russian defense". Claim from here.

What's Aleksandrovka in Russian is Oleksandrivka in Ukrainian, and there are surprisingly* few other Oleksandrivkas nearby, so I assumed that they meant the Novooleksandrivka in that picture. However, I went to make jam instead of posting about it, and when I had to put that on hold to rest up, I came back to find that indeed that was the Aleksandrovka/Oleksandrivka in question.

Which means Dudchany is quite plausible. From Novooleksandrivka, it's less than fifty km to the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets. From Dudchany, it's more like forty. I don't see Russian positions north of a line between Bruskyns'ke and Dudchany being viable for long if Ukraine can hold what they've taken and expand on it.

Another factor to consider is Chaplynka. Chaplynka is a major Russian supply hub south of the Dnipro, and they'd presumably thought it quite safe on the left bank, as it's about a hundred kilometres away from the currently stable and fortified lines northwest of Kherson city. If the Ukrainians stay north of the river that flows through Dudchany, they are on the very edge of GMLRS range at a fraction over 90km, but they wouldn't need to advance much further than that to really threaten Russian positions around Chaplynka, which would affect their supply lines, but also force them to move helicopter bases back into Crimea where the choppers will need to spend more time going back and forth and less time where they are needed if they are going to avoid a repeat of the hammering their helicopter fleet got at Chornobaivka.

*Ukraine needs more place names. Perhaps NATO could send some?