Scrutable

headshot wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:54 am After sleeping on it (albeit for 3 hours), I think my business partner and I are going to make the decision to cancel our three outdoor theatre tours with 160 combined dates.

Our tours will be in their most busy, and thus most expensive, period right when the experts are predicting the peak of the virus to hit.

We think it would be irresponsible to encourage mass gatherings when so many serious cases will be happening.

We also can’t make any guarantees that our casts won’t get I’ll and have to self-isolate, meaning the tours would be unviable for 7-14 days. Or that the Govt will put a ban on gatherings in place in the next phase.

That means 16 actors, 2 musical directors, a set designer and writer/director won’t make any money from us this year. It also means we won’t have any form of income stream until January.

Bird on a Fire wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:14 pm

secret squirrel wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:41 pm Tourism way down in Thailand due to virus fears. Lower tourism means less food for monkeys. Less food for monkeys means thousand strong monkey battle.

This is fun. I always enjoy a good monkey story.

However, it's not just monkeys that depend on tourism to eat. As others have said about events companies etc, one bad season will cause a lot of people big problems. Hopefully it's only monkeys that will erupt into large-scale violence.

marbling wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:28 am indeed, viruses don't like to dry out or get too warm. They are susceptible to UV, so sunlight has an added effect. I was taught that viruses were more likely to spread in winter because we all spend more time indoors in groups, but that seems less plausible with a 21st century developed world lifestyle - it doesn't feel to me like I spend all of my summer outdoors in the fresh air! But it’s all about pushing the R0 down, so small factors combined with a general increase in herd immunity through the season probably make a significant difference.

headshot wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:54 am After sleeping on it (albeit for 3 hours), I think my business partner and I are going to make the decision to cancel our three outdoor theatre tours with 160 combined dates.

Our tours will be in their most busy, and thus most expensive, period right when the experts are predicting the peak of the virus to hit.

We think it would be irresponsible to encourage mass gatherings when so many serious cases will be happening.

We also can’t make any guarantees that our casts won’t get I’ll and have to self-isolate, meaning the tours would be unviable for 7-14 days. Or that the Govt will put a ban on gatherings in place in the next phase.

That means 16 actors, 2 musical directors, a set designer and writer/director won’t make any money from us this year. It also means we won’t have any form of income stream until January.

lpm wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:32 am Critical care beds. In beds per 100,000. Germany appears to have more critical care beds per person than the UK has total hospital beds per person.

FlammableFlower wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:20 am

headshot wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:54 am After sleeping on it (albeit for 3 hours), I think my business partner and I are going to make the decision to cancel our three outdoor theatre tours with 160 combined dates.

Our tours will be in their most busy, and thus most expensive, period right when the experts are predicting the peak of the virus to hit.

We think it would be irresponsible to encourage mass gatherings when so many serious cases will be happening.

We also can’t make any guarantees that our casts won’t get I’ll and have to self-isolate, meaning the tours would be unviable for 7-14 days. Or that the Govt will put a ban on gatherings in place in the next phase.

That means 16 actors, 2 musical directors, a set designer and writer/director won’t make any money from us this year. It also means we won’t have any form of income stream until January.

Crikey, all the best headshot.

lpm wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:22 am From twitter:

The world is conducting a formal experiment in pandemic containment. The UK has been designated as the control group.

This thing about why some of us Scrutablists are challenging expert scientists? We are challenging UK scientists. Who are challenging the view taken by scientists in the rest of the world.

Outlier is a scary place.

Pedantica wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:50 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:09 pm Previous pandemics have gone in waves. Perhaps they're trying to prevent the waves.

Tonight's press conference was pretty sobering.

The CSO specifically said we need to start social distancing measures at the last time its feasible to start. That feels intuitively wrong which makes me think my intuition is off. I'm missing something. I think it might be the this:

Lot of us are assuming that China/Japan/South Korea are managing well. But what if they're just managing well in the short term but storing up problems for later. China in particular has used extreme measures - travel restrictions on most of the population with a whole province where most people aren't allowed to leave their homes at all (1 person per family allowed to leave for 2 hours once a week to collect supplies). They can't keep that up forever and they have millions of people with no resistance sitting in their homes. They've bought time to improve hospital facilities and mass produce testing kits. But if a viable vaccine is 15-24 months away there is a long way to go. And as we've seen from every country in Europe you only need a few cases to spark a new exponential wave.

I think a lot of people are thinking we're going to be over the peak quite quickly. What if in a years time it's still worse than it is today. That's a long time for serious social distancing measures. With the potential to crash the economy in ways that have a knock on negative impact on health.

There's also some counter intuitive comments around closing borders and stopping mass events. That it makes a marginal difference (I think the CSO said they thought stopping flights from China would have caused a delay of about 1 day). And that actually the main focus is on mass producing testing kits not trying to close borders or stop specific points of transmission (apart from the general "whole population" delaying tactics like the handwashing mantra).

headshot wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:54 am After sleeping on it (albeit for 3 hours), I think my business partner and I are going to make the decision to cancel our three outdoor theatre tours with 160 combined dates.

Our tours will be in their most busy, and thus most expensive, period right when the experts are predicting the peak of the virus to hit.

We think it would be irresponsible to encourage mass gatherings when so many serious cases will be happening.

We also can’t make any guarantees that our casts won’t get I’ll and have to self-isolate, meaning the tours would be unviable for 7-14 days. Or that the Govt will put a ban on gatherings in place in the next phase.

That means 16 actors, 2 musical directors, a set designer and writer/director won’t make any money from us this year. It also means we won’t have any form of income stream until January.

badger wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:02 am

headshot wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:54 am After sleeping on it (albeit for 3 hours), I think my business partner and I are going to make the decision to cancel our three outdoor theatre tours with 160 combined dates.

Our tours will be in their most busy, and thus most expensive, period right when the experts are predicting the peak of the virus to hit.

We think it would be irresponsible to encourage mass gatherings when so many serious cases will be happening.

We also can’t make any guarantees that our casts won’t get I’ll and have to self-isolate, meaning the tours would be unviable for 7-14 days. Or that the Govt will put a ban on gatherings in place in the next phase.

That means 16 actors, 2 musical directors, a set designer and writer/director won’t make any money from us this year. It also means we won’t have any form of income stream until January.

Sorry to hear that, but understandable in the circumstances. You may already be on to this, but is it worth talk to Arts Council and other public bodies about coordinating representation to govt for help/support?

purplehaze wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:52 am Glastonbury is still going ahead.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-51860319

Which I think is a foolish decision, unlike the very sensible decision you and your colleagues have made Headshot.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:01 am No. Lower alcohol levels will still work, but take more time to work.

Gfamily wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:03 pm

mikeh wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:53 pm For what its worth, the link within your original post goes to your own google drive, and thus visible name (which maybe you knew and are happy with).

I think I'm OK with that, but the heads-up is appreciated - next time I'll link to the individual pdfs

lpm wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:22 am From twitter:

The world is conducting a formal experiment in pandemic containment. The UK has been designated as the control group.

This thing about why some of us Scrutablists are challenging expert scientists? We are challenging UK scientists. Who are challenging the view taken by scientists in the rest of the world.

Outlier is a scary place.

lpm wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:08 am Has Boris Johnson run the "herd immunity" basic maths? I've run the basic maths.

60,000,000 people. Want to get 60% immunity quickly via allowing the active deadly disease to spread. Means 36,000,000 people to catch it. Over 180 days that's 200,000 new infections per day.

Compares to around 10,000 a day currently in Italy and South Korea.

10% to 20% need hospitalisation. So 20,000 to 40,000 new admissions per day. The normal daily average in the UK is about 40,000 per day, so a 50% to 100% increase in admissions.

160,000 beds available, typically 90% used. The number of beds needs to double, with nurses etc to go with them.

2,000 to 8,000 Covid fatalities per day. Plus elevated fatalities from all other causes.

And all this is with achieving a magical even daily case load instead of a curve with a peak 2x higher, or 5x higher, or 10x higher.

To me, the govt policy seems likely to give a peak in the general region of 500,000 to 1,000,000 new infections in a single day.

jimbob wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:28 am

lpm wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:22 am From twitter:

The world is conducting a formal experiment in pandemic containment. The UK has been designated as the control group.

This thing about why some of us Scrutablists are challenging expert scientists? We are challenging UK scientists. Who are challenging the view taken by scientists in the rest of the world.

Outlier is a scary place.

Well it's the British Way.

BSE - keep saying nothing is wrong for far too long
Salmonella in eggs - sack the minister who highlighted the issue
Foot and Mouth (2000) - ignore lessons from the 1967 outbreak and allow transport of highly infectious animals all around the country for a couple of weeks after the initial outbreak was identified.
Bovine TB - pursue an approach that is known not to work for a decade, whilst again being lax on transportation restrictions in affected areas.

lpm wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:08 am Has Boris Johnson run the "herd immunity" basic maths? I've run the basic maths.

60,000,000 people. Want to get 60% immunity quickly via allowing the active deadly disease to spread. Means 36,000,000 people to catch it. Over 180 days that's 200,000 new infections per day.

Compares to around 10,000 a day currently in Italy and South Korea.

10% to 20% need hospitalisation. So 20,000 to 40,000 new admissions per day. The normal daily average in the UK is about 40,000 per day, so a 50% to 100% increase in admissions.

160,000 beds available, typically 90% used. The number of beds needs to double, with nurses etc to go with them.

2,000 to 8,000 Covid fatalities per day. Plus elevated fatalities from all other causes.

And all this is with achieving a magical even daily case load instead of a curve with a peak 2x higher, or 5x higher, or 10x higher.

To me, the govt policy seems likely to give a peak in the general region of 500,000 to 1,000,000 new infections in a single day.