Scrutable

lpm wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 8:02 am.
The language analysis is interesting, as is the percentage of sentences not completed, but those seem to be signifiers of ageing rather than mental distress.

Chris Preston wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 11:26 am Polls at the moment have Harris with clear leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and a dead heat in Nevada. Trump is slightly ahead in Arizona and Georgia and clearly ahead in North Carolina. I

lpm wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 12:53 pm

Chris Preston wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 11:26 am Polls at the moment have Harris with clear leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and a dead heat in Nevada. Trump is slightly ahead in Arizona and Georgia and clearly ahead in North Carolina. I

The polling trackers still have Harris tied or behind in the Rust Belt. Probably tied or ahead in Nevada but behind in Arizona and Georgia.

But nothing that's a particular concern at this stage. The fact that it's still a toss up after the transformation of the race goes to show how badly Biden had got behind.

lpm wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 12:53 pm

Chris Preston wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 11:26 am Polls at the moment have Harris with clear leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and a dead heat in Nevada. Trump is slightly ahead in Arizona and Georgia and clearly ahead in North Carolina. I

The polling trackers still have Harris tied or behind in the Rust Belt. Probably tied or ahead in Nevada but behind in Arizona and Georgia.

But nothing that's a particular concern at this stage. The fact that it's still a toss up after the transformation of the race goes to show how badly Biden had got behind.

lpm wrote: Sat Aug 10, 2024 11:26 am

lpm wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 12:53 pm

Chris Preston wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 11:26 am Polls at the moment have Harris with clear leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and a dead heat in Nevada. Trump is slightly ahead in Arizona and Georgia and clearly ahead in North Carolina. I

The polling trackers still have Harris tied or behind in the Rust Belt. Probably tied or ahead in Nevada but behind in Arizona and Georgia.

But nothing that's a particular concern at this stage. The fact that it's still a toss up after the transformation of the race goes to show how badly Biden had got behind.

OK, so I withdraw that.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/10/us/p ... polls.html

NYT/Siena has Harris 50-46 in all three of MI, WI, PA.

Unless the identical score is a copy and paste error.

Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald J. Trump in three crucial battleground states, according to new surveys by The New York Times and Siena College, the latest indication of a dramatic reversal in standing for Democrats after President Biden’s departure from the presidential race remade it.

Ms. Harris is ahead of Mr. Trump by four percentage points in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, 50 percent to 46 percent among likely voters in each state. The surveys were conducted from Aug. 5 to 9.

The polls, some of the first high-quality surveys in those states since Mr. Biden announced he would no longer run for re-election, come after nearly a year of surveys that showed either a tied contest or a slight lead for Mr. Trump over Mr. Biden.

[…]

Much of the newfound Democratic strength stems from improved voter perceptions of Ms. Harris. Her favorability rating has increased 10 percentage points among registered voters in Pennsylvania just in the last month, according to Times/Siena polling. Voters also view Ms. Harris as more intelligent and more temperamentally fit to govern than Mr. Trump.

[…]

It is unclear how much of Ms. Harris’s bounce in the polls stems from the heightened excitement surrounding her ascension to the top of the ticket, or whether that momentum will last.

[…]

Still, there is little doubt that replacing Mr. Biden on the ticket has turbocharged Democratic enthusiasm about the election. Among Democrats, voter satisfaction with their choice of candidates has skyrocketed since Ms. Harris entered the race, up 27 percentage points in the three swing states since May, according to the latest Times/Siena results. Democrats are now more likely to say they are satisfied with their candidate choices than Republicans, a reversal from three months ago, when the question was last asked.

[…]

In the three battlegrounds, Ms. Harris is in a stronger position than Mr. Biden was in May with most demographic groups, including white voters without a college degree. She is faring better with key parts of the Democratic Party’s coalition that had begun to erode under Mr. Biden, most notably Black and young voters. But she also appears to be holding on to older voters, who were some of the president’s most ardent supporters.

The share of voters who said they trusted Ms. Harris to handle economic issues was higher than the share Mr. Biden received in May, though she is still nine points behind Mr. Trump on an issue where the Republican nominee has long held the advantage. And she has a 24-percentage-point advantage when it comes to whom voters trust to handle abortion, an issue considered one of the strongest for Democrats — in May, Mr. Biden held a 13-percentage-point advantage on abortion.

Mr. Trump’s attacks on Ms. Harris as “not smart” and “incompetent” have not landed with most voters. Nearly two-thirds of voters see Ms. Harris as intelligent, more than say the same about Mr. Trump. A majority of white voters without a college degree — a demographic that typically favors Republicans — said Ms. Harris was “intelligent.”

But the polls also indicate clear vulnerabilities for the new Democratic presidential nominee. Forty-two percent of voters said Ms. Harris was too liberal; 37 percent said the same about Mr. Biden last October.

[…]

Across all three states, Mr. Vance is viewed broadly unfavorably by independent voters: About one-third said they were dissatisfied, and another 17 percent described themselves as “angry” about his selection. Strikingly, he receives lukewarm support from a notable number of Republican voters. While 43 percent said they were excited about their vice-presidential nominee, 38 percent said they were satisfied but not enthusiastic.

Mr. Walz, by comparison, received higher marks within his own party. In Pennsylvania, the only state where the poll was taken entirely after Mr. Walz was announced as Ms. Harris’s running mate, 48 percent of Democrats said they were excited about the vice-presidential nominee. (In Wisconsin and Michigan, some interviews were completed before Ms. Harris announced that she had chosen Mr. Walz.)

[…]

The new polls also included crucial Senate races in the three swing states. Democrats hold a slight edge among likely voters in Michigan and larger leads in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

As recently as a few months ago, Democratic Senate candidates were running far ahead of Mr. Biden, a sign of the president’s weakness. Ms. Harris, by comparison, is running roughly on par with her party’s Senate contenders in the three states.

Today, Celine Dion’s management team and her record label, Sony Music Entertainment Canada Inc., became aware of the unauthorized usage of the video, recording, musical performance, and likeness of Celine Dion singing “My Heart Will Go On” at a Donald Trump / JD Vance campaign rally in Montana.

In no way is this use authorized, and Celine Dion does not endorse this or any similar use.

…And really, THAT song?

lpm wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 8:02 am It's hard to tell with Trump. There's no normal baseline to compare to.

For example last night he ranted for a while about Hillary Clinton instead of Harris. Totally mad and you wonder if he knows what year it is and if he's lost touch with reality. But then you remember he also ranted about Hillary Clinton instead of Biden in 2020. Is it worse now? Who can tell.

He plays truant from his campaign to have a round of golf, but then he played truant from his presidency to play golf. Does it mean trauma or just laziness.

The language analysis is interesting, as is the percentage of sentences not completed, but those seem to be signifiers of ageing rather than mental distress.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2024 8:53 am All comes down to Pennsylvania. If the polls stay where they are now, MI and WI will go Dem, NV and AZ will go Rep. That puts the Dems on 251 and Reps on 252. If that's how it goes, Pennsylvania decides it, Georgia is relevant only from the perspective of faithless electors - 270-268 gives a massive risk that one or two cockwombles will turn to Trump from Harris.

bob sterman wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2024 7:20 am Never quite understood the value of rallies in US politics.

Presumably all the attendees were going to vote for the candidate anyway?

Do clips for the news with loads of people waving and cheering really make that much difference?

Never really caught on over here - after the notorious Sheffield rally of 1992.

jimbob wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2024 9:42 am At least if there is a contended result or false electors, the Supreme Court will act in the interests of justice

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2024 8:53 am All comes down to Pennsylvania. If the polls stay where they are now, MI and WI will go Dem, NV and AZ will go Rep. That puts the Dems on 251 and Reps on 252. If that's how it goes, Pennsylvania decides it, Georgia is relevant only from the perspective of faithless electors - 270-268 gives a massive risk that one or two cockwombles will turn to Trump from Harris.

Chris Preston wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2024 10:26 am

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2024 8:53 am All comes down to Pennsylvania. If the polls stay where they are now, MI and WI will go Dem, NV and AZ will go Rep. That puts the Dems on 251 and Reps on 252. If that's how it goes, Pennsylvania decides it, Georgia is relevant only from the perspective of faithless electors - 270-268 gives a massive risk that one or two cockwombles will turn to Trump from Harris.

Indeed Pennsylvania will be important. Trump cannot win without it. Harris could by snaring Arizona and Nevada.

The latest polls have Arizona even. Even the Republican biased Trafalgar Group only have Trump up by 1%.