Scrutable

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:08 pm**

Are we really that much of an outlier from all the rest? I can see with some countries, yes. But looking around, Sweden has similar-ish numbers to us (deaths <10, 590ish conf cases to date, similar ICU beds per capita) and is taking similar approach to UK, AIUI.

Or am I missing something?

Any other countries closer to us in approach than we perhaps first thought?

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:10 pm**

Advice needed.

My sister is travelling from England tomorrow to Northern Ireland via the Holyhead-Dublin ferry.

She is going to a house that has a vulnerable 94 year old with an open wound ulcer and a fairly fit 69 year old with diabetes who has a cough and a cold.

She has a cabin and is going to wear gloves and a mask.

I personally think she shouldn't be doing this. My worry is she will be travelling with people who have been to Cheltenham.

I've already spoken to her to advise her not to do this but she seems to think she won't get the virus and that everything will be okay.

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:12 pm**

Does she really NEED to go? That's the bigger question.

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:15 pm**

headshot wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:12 pm Does she really NEED to go? That's the bigger question.

She has an appointment for a medical condition that if she doesn't attend in person will set her back months.

And to add an edit, I can totally understand her reason for going.

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:19 pm**

I guess second question then is if she can avoid the house with the vulnerable people, staying in a hotel or airb+b?

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:20 pm**

IANAPHExpert, but I'd suggest she look at booking into alternative accommodation that does not put the vulnerable people at risk?

Ninja'd

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:30 pm**

lpm wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:38 am 60 and 60% and 360 day years works so well for doing maths in your head, though. Those Babylonians were pretty damn smart with the 60 thing.

Yes, but if that's the case you're still overthinking the maths.

60% of the population to be infected within 6 months.

10% a month average and if it's a triangle then closer to 20% peak

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:34 pm**

It's a family visit. And personally I don't think she should be in a hotel either.

It's unfortunate timing for her.

I've suggested that if she goes, on arrival she remove her shoes and go straight to the shower, change and then put her clothes in a bag and immediately clothes into a hot wash. Then clean the inside of her car the next day with an immediate shower and change of clothes after. Her shoes should also be cleaned.

I know this sounds drastic but you can't take chances.

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:41 pm**

badger wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:08 pm Are we really that much of an outlier from all the rest? I can see with some countries, yes. But looking around, Sweden has similar-ish numbers to us (deaths <10, 590ish conf cases to date, similar ICU beds per capita) and is taking similar approach to UK, AIUI.

Or am I missing something?

Any other countries closer to us in approach than we perhaps first thought?

Good question. Everything is changing rapidly so its difficult to tell. But my impression is that smaller countries are taking more extensive measures. As far as I recall, France and Germany haven't had national shut downs yet. If that's the case it could be because smaller countries are more nimble and better able to react quickly, or alternatively because a small absolute number of cases will look much more worrying as a proportion of the population.

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:47 pm**

This is doing the rounds, from Newsnight last night

Seems like UK people are making the decisions, not the government, with sporting events and mass gatherings being nearly universally cancelled. Travel appears to be way down, restaurants (particularly Chinese and Italian) and anecdotally empty.

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:52 pm**

My kids nursery have just emailed me stating they're cancelling some mothers day activities as four staff are in self-isolation. If they have it then chances are that a large number of the kids and therefore significant number of parents do.

Even if they don't have it - with staff going into self isolation like this there comes a point where continued operations of non-essemtial functions that require physical staffing just isn't viable to continue with and they need to shut down anyway.

Wife has been shopping... no pasta or rice left on the shelves. And we thought we had at least until the end of the year before the food shortages started with Brexit!

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:56 pm**

lpm wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:47 pm This is doing the rounds, from Newsnight last night

Seems like UK people are making the decisions, not the government, with sporting events and mass gatherings being nearly universally cancelled. Travel appears to be way down, restaurants (particularly Chinese and Italian) and anecdotally empty.

hmmmm, they include Norway and Denmark on the grid, which have lots of Xs, but not Sweden who, like UK, don't.

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:00 pm**

jimbob wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:29 am
lpm wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:08 am Has Boris Johnson run the "herd immunity" basic maths? I've run the basic maths.

60,000,000 people. Want to get 60% immunity quickly via allowing the active deadly disease to spread. Means 36,000,000 people to catch it. Over 180 days that's 200,000 new infections per day.

Compares to around 10,000 a day currently in Italy and South Korea.

10% to 20% need hospitalisation. So 20,000 to 40,000 new admissions per day. The normal daily average in the UK is about 40,000 per day, so a 50% to 100% increase in admissions.

160,000 beds available, typically 90% used. The number of beds needs to double, with nurses etc to go with them.

2,000 to 8,000 Covid fatalities per day. Plus elevated fatalities from all other causes.

And all this is with achieving a magical even daily case load instead of a curve with a peak 2x higher, or 5x higher, or 10x higher.

To me, the govt policy seems likely to give a peak in the general region of 500,000 to 1,000,000 new infections in a single day.
yes, but it's closer to 70-Million not 60-Million* people so you need to up your numbers appropriately.

It's a bugbear of my youngest daughter

How about the 10% to 20% estimate for those requiring hospitalisation? How solid is that figure? (I appreciate "requiring" covers a bit of a sliding scale from "would recover faster and more safely in hospital" to "are in really significant danger if not hospitalised" plus of course it's estimated as a percentage of a less than perfectly known number of infections.)

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:16 pm**

badger wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:56 pm
lpm wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:47 pm This is doing the rounds, from Newsnight last night

Seems like UK people are making the decisions, not the government, with sporting events and mass gatherings being nearly universally cancelled. Travel appears to be way down, restaurants (particularly Chinese and Italian) and anecdotally empty.
hmmmm, they include Norway and Denmark on the grid, which have lots of Xs, but not Sweden who, like UK, don't.

The Netherlands is missing too, which I think is following a similar strategy to the UK.

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:28 pm**

Netherlands has shut universities, museums, banned events, meetings >100. It would get some small x's on a chart.

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:30 pm**

Sweden has banned events >500.

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:42 pm**

Woodchopper wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:55 am It seems to be spreading in Australia where it isn't winter. Latest smitten politician appeares to be in Queensland where its circa 25-30 degrees, though he might have been infected elsewhere. So it doesn't appear that warm weather prevents Covid-19. Though it may slow it down.

Peter Dutton, the minister concerned was in the US a week ago, palling around with Bill Barr and Ivanka six days ago.

He's our home affairs minister, former immigration minister, and is portrayed by the Guardian's cartoonist as a fascist potato, thanks to his hard right history. I'm sure there's a weak joke about him bringing nasty things over our borders but I'll try to rise above that.

Still, he almost certainly didn't contract it in sunny Queensland.

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:52 pm**

I think it's pretty obvious that the NHS isn't equipped to handle the government's COVID plans - nowhere near enough beds, staff, etc.

Surely this is just opportunistic disaster capitalism? Force the system past breaking point, then sell it for cheap to their mates - or even beg the private sector to swoop in and rescue everybody?

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:53 pm**

lpm wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:30 pm Sweden has banned events >500.

As has Scotland.
So should be a small x in fact for UK?

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:10 pm**

Portugal's just announced maximum capacity of 1/3 for cafes and bars.

This sounds like a sensible compromise (though not everyone will stick to it) - businesses won't suffer quite as much, but people will be able to keep their distance from strangers.

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:10 pm**

lpm wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:08 am Has Boris Johnson run the "herd immunity" basic maths? I've run the basic maths.

60,000,000 people. Want to get 60% immunity quickly via allowing the active deadly disease to spread. Means 36,000,000 people to catch it. Over 180 days that's 200,000 new infections per day.

Compares to around 10,000 a day currently in Italy and South Korea.

10% to 20% need hospitalisation. So 20,000 to 40,000 new admissions per day. The normal daily average in the UK is about 40,000 per day, so a 50% to 100% increase in admissions.

160,000 beds available, typically 90% used. The number of beds needs to double, with nurses etc to go with them.

2,000 to 8,000 Covid fatalities per day. Plus elevated fatalities from all other causes.

And all this is with achieving a magical even daily case load instead of a curve with a peak 2x higher, or 5x higher, or 10x higher.

To me, the govt policy seems likely to give a peak in the general region of 500,000 to 1,000,000 new infections in a single day.

I did a "back of a fag packet*" calculation over lunch - to reach 90% herd immunity, with around a 1% mortality rate, we're looking at around 600,000 people dying to make sure no-one catches it.

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:11 pm**

Squeak wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:42 pm
Woodchopper wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:55 am It seems to be spreading in Australia where it isn't winter. Latest smitten politician appeares to be in Queensland where its circa 25-30 degrees, though he might have been infected elsewhere. So it doesn't appear that warm weather prevents Covid-19. Though it may slow it down.
Peter Dutton, the minister concerned was in the US a week ago, palling around with Bill Barr and Ivanka six days ago.

He's our home affairs minister, former immigration minister, and is portrayed by the Guardian's cartoonist as a fascist potato, thanks to his hard right history. I'm sure there's a weak joke about him bringing nasty things over our borders but I'll try to rise above that.

Still, he almost certainly didn't contract it in sunny Queensland.

Thanks for that. As far as I know there does still appear to be some person to person transmission in Australia. Id be delighted to be corrected.

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:15 pm**

Moved

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:17 pm**

I've made a new Covid-woo thread, which can be found here:
viewtopic.php?f=8&t=998&p=22664#p22663

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:25 pm**

That is some f.cking sexy reversion to the mean right there

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

Scrutable

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