Scrutable

5 thirty 8 now have Iowa going for Biden.

It's Florida that's the problem at the moment.

It's only +2 in the average, which is obviously a swing from the -1 in 2016 but nothing like the national polling swing would suggest.

Would be odd to see wins in Georgia and North Carolina but a loss in Florida. A slight error in polling and a splash of cheating could mean all 3 are lost.

As a reminder, winning Wisconsin and Michigan but not Pennsylvania is... not nice. Getting Arizona takes it to a 269-269 tie and chaos. Getting NE-2 gives Biden 270-268 and chaos.

There needs to be a solid insurance policy against not winning Pennsylvania and there isn't one without Florida, North Carolina and Georgia. Though it would be quite funny if Putin & Trump successfully rig Pennsylvania, cheat shamelessly in Florida and Georgia, suppress enough votes in North Carolina - but forget to rig Iowa and Biden sneaks through with its 6 EC votes.

We've trusted Florida before and it never ends well. Come, friendly sea level rises.

Biden's (thankfully) looking much better in Pennsylvania.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:48 am We've trusted Florida before and it never ends well. Come, friendly sea level rises.

The meth ‘gators will probably get them all first.

lpm wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:33 am It's Florida that's the problem at the moment.

It's only +2 in the average, which is obviously a swing from the -1 in 2016 but nothing like the national polling swing would suggest.

Florida is one of the states affected by the sudden wild swing to Trump in certain pollsters - notably these are pollsters that either spend all their time online supporting Trump and attacking Biden, doing that but also reposting far right stuff, or are linked to a Trump PAC. All have dubious and opaque methodology, and have spent much of the race producing suspiciously consistent middle of the road stuff - which could well be just trying to fit into the crowd - and so managed to get included in the averages - then swung violently to Trump in the last couple of days, inc. giving him leads nationally. In Florida, pollsters vary from +2 to +7, except for Rasmussen - the aforementioned promoters of far right material - and Susquehanna, who specialise internal polls for the Republican party, who have it at -4 and -5 respectively.

It's also worth bearing in mind that RCP is including all of the above, but excluding some Biden favourable polls from reputable pollsters without apparent reason.

It's almost as if they were trying to fake a late swing narrative, isn't it?

lpm wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:33 am It's Florida that's the problem at the moment.

It's only +2 in the average, which is obviously a swing from the -1 in 2016 but nothing like the national polling swing would suggest.

Would be odd to see wins in Georgia and North Carolina but a loss in Florida. A slight error in polling and a splash of cheating could mean all 3 are lost.

North Carolina is a Democrat governor, at least, which makes cheating that bit harder.

Very good poll puts Biden 17 points up in Wisconsin.


Which is nice.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:06 pm Very good poll puts Biden 17 points up in Wisconsin.


Which is nice.

But only 7 in Michigan.

I can kind of believe that, what with Trump's attacks on the governor there. Not sure that it lasts, though.

This is a pretty mad tweet:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 2150935552

Boasting about how superspready his superspreading rallies are is standard. But surely there's no way a helicopter should hover over crowds? I know Marine One isn't likely to crash but that would be banned at any UK air show.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:06 pm Very good poll puts Biden 17 points up in Wisconsin.


Which is nice.

And now there's only two little red Americas at the top of the 538 forecast.

Not that this image could have been made for me, or anything

hahaha

lpm wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:16 pm This is a pretty mad tweet:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 2150935552

Boasting about how superspready his superspreading rallies are is standard. But surely there's no way a helicopter should hover over crowds? I know Marine One isn't likely to crash but that would be banned at any UK air show.

Helicopter pilots discussing the use of choppers flying that sort of height to intimidate crowds during the protests in Washington pointed out it was ludicrously reckless, so I guess it is here, too.

Also, Trump'a hate rally in Omaha f.cked up transport and left loads of people stranded in freezing temperatures for hours, leading to multiple medical emergencies, all after he had f.cked off. That will be all over the news in Nebraska 2nd and western Iowa.

lpm wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:16 pm This is a pretty mad tweet:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 2150935552

Boasting about how superspready his superspreading rallies are is standard. But surely there's no way a helicopter should hover over crowds? I know Marine One isn't likely to crash but that would be banned at any UK air show.

Not just superspreader, as there were several cases of hypothermia at one in the last couple of days. Getting old people to walk miles at night to buses with winter coming in in the upper mid-west/west is not so smart.

Which is what the previous post is about, I guess.

Lesley Stahl, a woman in her late 70s, now has 24 hour security after receiving threats because Trump stormed out of her interview like a toddler after being told they couldn't broadcast things that weren't true or weren't verifiable.

With a week to go I’m quite appallingly nervous about this. My big fear is that the polls are skewed because people don’t want to admit to planning to vote for Trump. Plus, of course, the systematic cheating by the GOP.

malbui wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:35 pm With a week to go I’m quite appallingly nervous about this. My big fear is that the polls are skewed because people don’t want to admit to planning to vote for Trump. Plus, of course, the systematic cheating by the GOP.

The previous shy Trump/missing Trump voter bias (which wasn't actually very big, people just forgot about correlations in the errors when rating Clinton's chances) has been accounted for this time in the polling. Unless there's reason to think it's got even higher, it should (he says) not be an issue, or as big an issue, this time.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:50 pm

malbui wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:35 pm With a week to go I’m quite appallingly nervous about this. My big fear is that the polls are skewed because people don’t want to admit to planning to vote for Trump. Plus, of course, the systematic cheating by the GOP.

The previous shy Trump/missing Trump voter bias (which wasn't actually very big, people just forgot about correlations in the errors when rating Clinton's chances) has been accounted for this time in the polling. Unless there's reason to think it's got even higher, it should (he says) not be an issue, or as big an issue, this time.

I’m sure you’re right but I won’t relax until Biden is safely sworn in.

This attendee at the Omaha rally doesn't seem to mind

https://twitter.com/blaireerskine/statu ... 8952495105

lpm wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:14 pm This attendee at the Omaha rally doesn't seem to mind

https://twitter.com/blaireerskine/statu ... 8952495105

Death cult remains a death cult.

dyqik wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:27 pm

lpm wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:14 pm This attendee at the Omaha rally doesn't seem to mind

https://twitter.com/blaireerskine/statu ... 8952495105

Death cult remains a death cult.

That's got to be a Poe, surely!

Gfamily wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:33 pm

dyqik wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:27 pm

lpm wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:14 pm This attendee at the Omaha rally doesn't seem to mind

https://twitter.com/blaireerskine/statu ... 8952495105

Death cult remains a death cult.

That's got to be a Poe, surely!

The only relevant Poe to Trump supporters is Edgar Allen.

But that would mean this beautiful 1 min 29 seconds isn't real:

https://twitter.com/blaireerskine/statu ... 5664140290

EACLucifer wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:28 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:06 pm Very good poll puts Biden 17 points up in Wisconsin.


Which is nice.

And now there's only two little red Americas at the top of the 538 forecast.

Not that this image could have been made for me, or anything

I feel targeted.

Stock market having another slumpy sort of day. Not major, nothing like the plunge in March. But Trump loves to boast to rednecks about how well their 401Ks are doing.