Scrutable

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:39 pm**

Hello folks - have written this blog-post style around current UK response, addressing a little bit of what goes into it and why its different to some other countries, and why I reckon the UK probably has it about right at the moment.

It's just a doc on google drive right now, I may try and find a better home for it

Hope you find it useful/helpful.
http://bit.ly/covid19headm

[small](have shared it elsewhere, so fully aware its got my name on it etc)[/small]

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:47 pm**

mikeh wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:39 pm Hello folks - have written this blog-post style around current UK response, addressing a little bit of what goes into it and why its different to some other countries, and why I reckon the UK probably has it about right at the moment.

It's just a doc on google drive right now, I may try and find a better home for it

Hope you find it useful/helpful.
http://bit.ly/covid19headm

[small](have shared it elsewhere, so fully aware its got my name on it etc)[/small]

Thanks for that, a really good summary. Reads well too.

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:49 pm**

Thanks mike.

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:53 pm**

mikeh wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:39 pm Hello folks - have written this blog-post style around current UK response, addressing a little bit of what goes into it and why its different to some other countries, and why I reckon the UK probably has it about right at the moment.

It's just a doc on google drive right now, I may try and find a better home for it

Hope you find it useful/helpful.
http://bit.ly/covid19headm

[small](have shared it elsewhere, so fully aware its got my name on it etc)[/small]

thank you, do you think you will publish it anywhere?

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:54 pm**

How does this fit with the 'herd immunity' approach??

Some patients who recovered from Covid-19 have suffered reduced lung function and now experience problems such as gasping for air when walking quickly, Hong Kong’s Hospital Authority has revealed.

A review of lung scans of nine infected patients at Princess Margaret found patterns similar to frosted glass in all of them, suggesting there was organ damage.
But Tsang said the long-term effect on recovered patients, such as whether they would develop pulmonary fibrosis, a condition where lung tissue hardened and the organ could not function properly, had yet to be ascertained.

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hea ... s-may-have

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:59 pm**

And it's playing havoc with my fantasy league team.

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:08 pm**

Thanks mikeh, that's particularly timely as it addresses questions Mrs Y raised this morning about the UK's different response.

(Plus I know she has a friend coming over for a bit of moral support/any reassurance she can get. Got her dream job with a small travel company - new startup, dependent on growth - and, well, you can imagine, she's already staring into an abyss.)

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:09 pm**

My daughter has been sent home sick from school. She was sick and off her food before lunch. What a relief!

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:18 pm**

Trinucleus wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:00 pm Following the Governments proposal that big crowds are ok but vulnerable people should consider avoiding them, the football authorities have decided to cancel all games for the next two weeks.

B*gger

Said on the news that all "professional" games were cancelled. I was wondering if the Vanarama League South counted as Professional but I'm still not recovered from my sniffles so I would probably have given it a miss any way.

Local Sainsbury's is starting to run low on beer. Still no catfood. Seriously, what's that all about?

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:24 pm**

Nero wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:47 pm
mikeh wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:39 pm Hello folks - have written this blog-post style around current UK response, addressing a little bit of what goes into it and why its different to some other countries, and why I reckon the UK probably has it about right at the moment.

It's just a doc on google drive right now, I may try and find a better home for it

Hope you find it useful/helpful.
http://bit.ly/covid19headm

[small](have shared it elsewhere, so fully aware its got my name on it etc)[/small]
Thanks for that, a really good summary. Reads well too.

Yes, very interesting. On the point about how there are wide differences in the adoption of preventative behaviours, as you suggest, that is in accord with lots of sociological research on conformity (eg there's lots of it in Norway and Denmark [ETA and Japan and Singapore (maybe a trend here)], less so elsewhere).

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:31 pm**

calmooney wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:54 pm How does this fit with the 'herd immunity' approach??
Some patients who recovered from Covid-19 have suffered reduced lung function and now experience problems such as gasping for air when walking quickly, Hong Kong’s Hospital Authority has revealed.

A review of lung scans of nine infected patients at Princess Margaret found patterns similar to frosted glass in all of them, suggesting there was organ damage.
But Tsang said the long-term effect on recovered patients, such as whether they would develop pulmonary fibrosis, a condition where lung tissue hardened and the organ could not function properly, had yet to be ascertained.
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hea ... s-may-have

That's potentially quite scary given this thing is dangerous to folks with underlying conditions. If this becomes the type of virus that comes around again each year could it not create the underlying condition in the first pass to then polish folks off in a second or third pass?

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:45 pm**

mikeh wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:39 pm Hello folks - have written this blog-post style around current UK response, addressing a little bit of what goes into it and why its different to some other countries, and why I reckon the UK probably has it about right at the moment.

It's just a doc on google drive right now, I may try and find a better home for it

Hope you find it useful/helpful.
http://bit.ly/covid19headm

[small](have shared it elsewhere, so fully aware its got my name on it etc)[/small]

Thanks Mike. Have retweeted to my 47 followers, but also put a link on Facebook. Might help to balance out all the people demanding to be shut in their houses for a month. I've been working from home for a week and already going a little stir crazy.

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:54 pm**

The Premier League and the Football League have postponed all games. The National League haven’t. I get that there are fewer fans at the games, but there are more fans at Stockport County than at a fair few Football League matches.

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:55 pm**

JQH wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:18 pm
Trinucleus wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:00 pm Following the Governments proposal that big crowds are ok but vulnerable people should consider avoiding them, the football authorities have decided to cancel all games for the next two weeks.

B*gger
Said on the news that all "professional" games were cancelled. I was wondering if the Vanarama League South counted as Professional but I'm still not recovered from my sniffles so I would probably have given it a miss any way.

Local Sainsbury's is starting to run low on beer. Still no catfood. Seriously, what's that all about?

I think national league downwards are still on. Social distancing not a problem at most non league grounds, apart from round the bar. I wonder if the Sky Sports cameras will be at Boreham Wood this Saturday?

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:56 pm**

TopBadger wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:31 pm
calmooney wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:54 pm How does this fit with the 'herd immunity' approach??
Some patients who recovered from Covid-19 have suffered reduced lung function and now experience problems such as gasping for air when walking quickly, Hong Kong’s Hospital Authority has revealed.

A review of lung scans of nine infected patients at Princess Margaret found patterns similar to frosted glass in all of them, suggesting there was organ damage.
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hea ... s-may-have
That's potentially quite scary given this thing is dangerous to folks with underlying conditions. If this becomes the type of virus that comes around again each year could it not create the underlying condition in the first pass to then polish folks off in a second or third pass?

The linked article doesn’t make any comparison of these symptoms to the expected longer term recovery progress of people who have had pneumonia (which I am assuming these patients had if they were hospitalised), where you would expect reduced lung function for some time after the infection has been treated. In particular, the ‘gasping for air when walking quickly’ sounds very familiar. So these symptoms might be expected during normal recovery.

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:58 pm**

Dulwich are averaging ca. 2,000 per home game. Given that the capacity at Champion Hill is 3,000 that means not much social distancing going on.

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:09 pm**

WHO says Europe is now the epicentre of the pandemic, which gives us a good opportunity to argue about use of the word epicentre.

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:15 pm**

In the midst of all the sports cancellations, I have hope that the County Championship will be absolutely fine, because there is literally f.ck all chance of getting 500 people in to a stadium watch a 4-day county cricket match.

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:17 pm**

Those who swept Asda clear of dried pasta have had a day or two to think about it and come back for the jars of pasta sauce.

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:25 pm**

At work, I've thrown my wot-I-reckon into the concern over of how to sanitise sports commentators' lip mics (as if hygiene had never before been a concern with equipment which regularly has some excitable chap spitting tea and pie crumbs into it all afternoon).

My proposals may be moot as events are overtaking the, umm, events.

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:28 pm**

Martin Y wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:17 pm Those who swept Asda clear of dried pasta have had a day or two to think about it and come back for the jars of pasta sauce.

I'd assumed stocking levels were more about bulk, so because pasta takes up more room than sauce then it ran out first.

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:44 pm**

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:54 pm**

From the British Society for Immunology's statement on herd immunity and covid19 (my highlight)

“SARS-CoV-2 is a novel virus in humans and there is still much that we need to learn about how it affects the human immune system. Because it is so new, we do not yet know how long any protection generated through infection will last. Some other viruses in the Coronavirus family, such as those that cause common colds, tend to induce immunity that is relatively short lived, at around three months. However, these viruses have co-evolved with the human immune system over thousands of years meaning they may well have developed methods to manipulate our immune responses. With the novel SARS-CoV-2, the situation may be very different but we urgently need more research looking at the immune responses of people who have recovered from infection to be sure.”

https://www.immunology.org/news/bsi-res ... sars-cov-2

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:56 pm**

JQH wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:58 pm Dulwich are averaging ca. 2,000 per home game. Given that the capacity at Champion Hill is 3,000 that means not much social distancing going on.

Northern Counties East games have been called off, just to confuse things. From the way it's phrased, I wonder if the postponement of the pro games is more to do with players currently being infected than worries about crowds

Posted: **Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:12 pm**

mikeh wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:39 pm Hello folks - have written this blog-post style around current UK response, addressing a little bit of what goes into it and why its different to some other countries, and why I reckon the UK probably has it about right at the moment.

It's just a doc on google drive right now, I may try and find a better home for it

Hope you find it useful/helpful.
http://bit.ly/covid19headm

[small](have shared it elsewhere, so fully aware its got my name on it etc)[/small]

I'll add my thanks on this.

Are you going to publilsh it somewhere a little more formal so I can send links to people? You might be happy for it to be linked to where it is, or you might want to keep it semi-private, or ...

Nonetheless, an interesting and informative read.

Scrutable

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