Scrutable

lpm wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 6:49 am How could special forces deliver enough explosives for that?

Possibly via truck bomb or bombs judging by the damage to the road, or even by boat.

ETA If so it may well have been a suicide mission to hit the train as well.

EETA I mean as a target of opportunity. Difficult to plan that in advance.

My guess is the train was a very lucky coincidence.

A truck stops on the bridge at a perfect spot, the driver jumps in a car which speeds off... Do they have so much nerve they wait to trigger it when they know a fuel train is alongside? Or have they coordinated a second bomb on the train?

The whole thing is astonishing, targeting the train as well seems even more extraordinarily audacious.

lpm wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:04 am My guess is the train was a very lucky coincidence.

A truck stops on the bridge at a perfect spot, the driver jumps in a car which speeds off... Do they have so much nerve they wait to trigger it when they know a fuel train is alongside? Or have they coordinated a second bomb on the train?

The whole thing is astonishing, targeting the train as well seems even more extraordinarily audacious.

There appears to be some cctv footage. No sign of anyone stopping a truck and getting out.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1578 ... s9KcAlP1gw

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1578 ... s9KcAlP1gw

ETA https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1578 ... BefvwXJoLA

Woodchopper wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 6:53 am Close up video of the damage: https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1578 ... PpXzqFkASQ

Severe fire damage to the rail bridge.

Two separate spans of the road are down. A single truck bomb doesn't seem to fit. Demolition charges by boat more likely?

It's incredible there's people taking video on their phones and I get to see it.

Suicide mission? Remotely operated bomb placed in a truck? Remotely operated truck?

Woodchopper wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:08 am

lpm wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:04 am My guess is the train was a very lucky coincidence.

A truck stops on the bridge at a perfect spot, the driver jumps in a car which speeds off... Do they have so much nerve they wait to trigger it when they know a fuel train is alongside? Or have they coordinated a second bomb on the train?

The whole thing is astonishing, targeting the train as well seems even more extraordinarily audacious.

There appears to be some cctv footage. No sign of anyone stopping a truck and getting out.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1578 ... s9KcAlP1gw

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1578 ... s9KcAlP1gw

ETA https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1578 ... BefvwXJoLA

Blows from underneath, I'd say.

lpm wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 6:49 am How could special forces deliver enough explosives for that?

Via missile? How close could they get if they were somewhere near Mariupol?

Woodchopper wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:08 am

lpm wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:04 am My guess is the train was a very lucky coincidence.

A truck stops on the bridge at a perfect spot, the driver jumps in a car which speeds off... Do they have so much nerve they wait to trigger it when they know a fuel train is alongside? Or have they coordinated a second bomb on the train?

The whole thing is astonishing, targeting the train as well seems even more extraordinarily audacious.

There appears to be some cctv footage. No sign of anyone stopping a truck and getting out.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1578 ... s9KcAlP1gw

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1578 ... s9KcAlP1gw

ETA https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1578 ... BefvwXJoLA

First link there’s a rush of water under the bridge just before the explosion. Wake of a boat?

Yes, a boat is possible.

Though that raises other questions. Like how was it allowed to sail there and where did it sail from.

Yeah, look under the bridge, there might have been a boat

https://twitter.com/Colone1Kurtz/status ... 00/photo/1

but also https://twitter.com/VKAbramowicz/status ... 9120659456

It was clearly an attack on the road span. With the explosion at a carefully chosen structural point. Yet a flammable train was alongside at exactly the moment of the explosion.

1. Incredible coincidence
2. Perfect timing

1 is possible, coincidences happen. But more likely 2. How can you achieve perfect timing?

A. Truck bomb driven by stranger? No.

B. Truck bomb driven by suicide bomber? Almost certainly not, too hard to coordinate timings.

C. Pre-prepared demolition charges or boat bomb underneath, with trigger guy waiting patiently till a known train reaches perfect point?

It has to be 2C? An attack by water?

I think the attack is in Russian territory. The main span of the bridge is in Ukraine but this is nearer to the Taman side.

Not that this is a problem, but interesting nuance.

The way the lampposts are blown over looks like it was a charge on the deck, not under.

However they did it, it’s a good day for the Ukrainians, one of the major Russian supply routes into Crimea was effectively destroyed. It also supplied the southern Russian offensives into Ukrainian. It also makes it easier to retake Crimea.

lpm wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:54 am I think the attack is in Russian territory. The main span of the bridge is in Ukraine but this is nearer to the Tanan side.

I think it's between the arch and Tuzla island, which is also Ukraine.

bjn wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:55 am The way the lampposts are blown over looks like it was a charge on the deck, not under.

But one of the bits in the water still has lamp posts. Did a blast under the bridge on one side blow out stuff on the top of the other carriageway?

It appears that the Kerch bridge was the only rail link from Russia to occupied Ukraine east of Donetsk.

There is a line going soutwest from Donetsk (heading to Mariupol with lnes to the west toward Melitopol). See here and here.

However, near Stepne and Olhynka the line passes within a few kilometers from the front line. See here> https://liveuamap.com/ sorry I can't seem to be able to send a direct link, just zoom into Donetsk and look to the south west.

That has to make the line unusable, especially for heavy freight traffic.

So Russia had to rely upon the Kerch bridge to supply everything in Southern Ukraine.

It'll be possible to ship things over the strait by boat but that makes for a huge bottleneck. There are of course roads from Russia into southern Ukraine. But Russia never had enough trucks to supply its army, and it has lost a huge quantity of them since February.

lpm wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:39 am It was clearly an attack on the road span. With the explosion at a carefully chosen structural point. Yet a flammable train was alongside at exactly the moment of the explosion.

1. Incredible coincidence
2. Perfect timing

1 is possible, coincidences happen. But more likely 2. How can you achieve perfect timing?

A. Truck bomb driven by stranger? No.

B. Truck bomb driven by suicide bomber? Almost certainly not, too hard to coordinate timings.

C. Pre-prepared demolition charges or boat bomb underneath, with trigger guy waiting patiently till a known train reaches perfect point?

It has to be 2C? An attack by water?

Very difficult to plant a truck load of explosives without anyone noticing.

As for luck and the train, much depends upon how frequently trains cross the bridge.

For example, the road bridge is 17km long, which at 80 kmh would take 12 minutes to cross. If trains regularly cross every 10 minutes then a truck bomber is very likely to encounter one while driving over. So they just wait to detonate when they are passing a train.

Obviously different if trains cross every hour.

Yep, this is a massive triumph for Ukraine. This is the only railway that matters, the land bridge railway is cut by artillery near Donetsk.

Which, reversing myself, implies a truck bomb? If you have a boat attack or demolition, then the rail bridge is far more valuable than attacking the road bridge. You'd pick it every time. But if a truck is your only way...

Unless structural considerations make the rail bridge too robust for a boat attack?

Woodchopper wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 8:12 am It appears that the Kerch bridge was the only rail link from Russia to occupied Ukraine east of Donetsk.

There is a line going soutwest from Donetsk (heading to Mariupol with lnes to the west toward Melitopol). See here and here.

However, near Stepne and Olhynka the line passes within a few kilometers from the front line. See here> https://liveuamap.com/ sorry I can't seem to be able to send a direct link, just zoom into Donetsk and look to the south west.

That has to make the line unusable, especially for heavy freight traffic.

So Russia had to rely upon the Kerch bridge to supply everything in Southern Ukraine.

It'll be possible to ship things over the strait by boat but that makes for a huge bottleneck. There are of course roads from Russia into southern Ukraine. But Russia never had enough trucks to supply its army, and it has lost a huge quantity of them since February.

So logistical nightmares for RU forces in the whole Kherson Oblast, not just the forces to the west of the Dnipro. Excellent news.

TimW wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:58 am

lpm wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:54 am I think the attack is in Russian territory. The main span of the bridge is in Ukraine but this is nearer to the Tanan side.

I think it's between the arch and Tuzla island, which is also Ukraine.

The Russians are saying it's between Tuzla and Tanan.

So it won't be. Anything between Tuzla and Crimea is all Ukraine territory.

I’m not overly concerned as to exactly how UKR did it, the doing was the important bit. Plus a bit of mystery helps them by keeping the RU forces guessing.

Having the capability to do it again is important, whether in the same way they just did it or in a different way.

bjn wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 8:24 am

Woodchopper wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 8:12 am It appears that the Kerch bridge was the only rail link from Russia to occupied Ukraine east of Donetsk.

There is a line going soutwest from Donetsk (heading to Mariupol with lnes to the west toward Melitopol). See here and here.

However, near Stepne and Olhynka the line passes within a few kilometers from the front line. See here> https://liveuamap.com/ sorry I can't seem to be able to send a direct link, just zoom into Donetsk and look to the south west.

That has to make the line unusable, especially for heavy freight traffic.

So Russia had to rely upon the Kerch bridge to supply everything in Southern Ukraine.

It'll be possible to ship things over the strait by boat but that makes for a huge bottleneck. There are of course roads from Russia into southern Ukraine. But Russia never had enough trucks to supply its army, and it has lost a huge quantity of them since February.

So logistical nightmares for RU forces in the whole Kherson Oblast, not just the forces to the west of the Dnipro. Excellent news.

And Zaporizhzhia, assuming they are unable to repair the rail bridge.

Quite a thing to wake up to.

Having now seen the footage of the blast, it looks quite a lot like the ones at the airbase in Crimea, which we now know to be long range missiles.

It's also worth noting that the flight time of an SRBM is pretty short, and trains are pretty long. The bridge is/was curved, built in a hurry and valuable, all things that would point to a low speed limit, not that oil trains are noted to go fast anyway.

One scenario people discussed a while back for getting the explosive power to drop the Kerch Bridge was to hit an ammunition train as it passed over. All that's really needed is to have things lined up, and eyes watching the approaches that can communicate speed/position information, then a little calculation later and it can be timed just like hitting a moving vehicle with a mortar - aim the missile, and wait to fire it until the target reaches a pre-calculated position, so that one flight time later it is where the weapon was aimed.

bjn wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 8:24 am

Woodchopper wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 8:12 am It appears that the Kerch bridge was the only rail link from Russia to occupied Ukraine east of Donetsk.

There is a line going soutwest from Donetsk (heading to Mariupol with lnes to the west toward Melitopol). See here and here.

However, near Stepne and Olhynka the line passes within a few kilometers from the front line. See here> https://liveuamap.com/ sorry I can't seem to be able to send a direct link, just zoom into Donetsk and look to the south west.

That has to make the line unusable, especially for heavy freight traffic.

So Russia had to rely upon the Kerch bridge to supply everything in Southern Ukraine.

It'll be possible to ship things over the strait by boat but that makes for a huge bottleneck. There are of course roads from Russia into southern Ukraine. But Russia never had enough trucks to supply its army, and it has lost a huge quantity of them since February.

So logistical nightmares for RU forces in the whole Kherson Oblast, not just the forces to the west of the Dnipro. Excellent news.

And Russia has to expend resources trying to counter such subsequent attacks.

But I said the same about the airbase attack

EACLucifer wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 8:30 am

bjn wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 8:24 am

Woodchopper wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 8:12 am It appears that the Kerch bridge was the only rail link from Russia to occupied Ukraine east of Donetsk.

There is a line going soutwest from Donetsk (heading to Mariupol with lnes to the west toward Melitopol). See here and here.

However, near Stepne and Olhynka the line passes within a few kilometers from the front line. See here> https://liveuamap.com/ sorry I can't seem to be able to send a direct link, just zoom into Donetsk and look to the south west.

That has to make the line unusable, especially for heavy freight traffic.

So Russia had to rely upon the Kerch bridge to supply everything in Southern Ukraine.

It'll be possible to ship things over the strait by boat but that makes for a huge bottleneck. There are of course roads from Russia into southern Ukraine. But Russia never had enough trucks to supply its army, and it has lost a huge quantity of them since February.

So logistical nightmares for RU forces in the whole Kherson Oblast, not just the forces to the west of the Dnipro. Excellent news.

And Zaporizhzhia, assuming they are unable to repair the rail bridge.

Quite a thing to wake up to.

It'll buff out