Scrutable

The Top Gun gal won your primary, EPD. She's requesting permission to buzz the tower.

dyqik wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:34 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:31 pm The times where trump has dropped lower are when he's done stuff that offends the republican side without gaining support from independents. I think the point where he insulted the family of a dead soldier, for instance, led to a brief drop in support.

Give it a week or two the Lincoln Project and VetsVote ad campaigns on Russia paying bounties on US troops to filter through to the polls...

Maybe it'll drop to 39%.

How many people is 1%? About 1 million?

Grumble wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:19 pm

dyqik wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:34 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:31 pm The times where trump has dropped lower are when he's done stuff that offends the republican side without gaining support from independents. I think the point where he insulted the family of a dead soldier, for instance, led to a brief drop in support.

Give it a week or two the Lincoln Project and VetsVote ad campaigns on Russia paying bounties on US troops to filter through to the polls...

Maybe it'll drop to 39%.

How many people is 1%? About 1 million?

In terms of a days worth of polls? About 30-60.

In terms of the likely voting population, about 1.4 million.

In terms of the registered voter population, about 1.8 million (ignoring North Dakota, which doesn't have voter registration. Or many people).

In terms of all adults of voting age, about 2.5 million.

Polls could attempting to model any of the last three.

Montana has voted for the democrat candidate in the presidential election twice in the last 70 years - 1964 for Johnson, and 1992 for Clinton (Clinton didn't win a majority that year, only a plurality, because of Ross Perot who took 26% of the vote). Trump won it by 21% in 2016, Romney by 14% in 2012, George W Bush by 25% over Al Gore in 2000. It's normally a deeply red state.

Trump was ahead by only around 5 points there at the end of April, when the polls were 6 points in favour of Biden. Biden's since got an additional national lead of around 4 points. It's competitive.

Missouri was a bellwether state right up to the 2008 election, when McCain narrowly won. Since then, it's become much more firmly republican - Romney won it by over 9%, Trump by nearly 19%. Biden is ahead there by 2 points, according to a poll yesterday.

Oh yeah, and a poll a week ago had Biden a point up on Trump in Texas. So, you know.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:43 pm Oh yeah, and a poll a week ago had Biden a point up on Trump in Texas. So, you know.

Today one poll (PPP) had Biden up two, and another (Yougov) had him down four in Texas. The up two's field dates were a bit more recent than the down four ones, and CoVID is spiking right now there, with new shutdowns.

Also, Trump's campaign manager has a hilariously bad Op-Ed in the Washington Post where he's basically special pleading every stat he can to try and keep his job. Don't click on that story, click on this analysis of it instead.

A lot of noise from Fox and the bottom-half of the internet about the absolute certainty of a V-shaped recovery, basically because anything less than a sudden and dramatic improvement in the economy is likely to spells curtains for Trump.

Seems to me though it’s a variation of the “broken windows” fallacy; a degree of economic activity may prove to be elastic and is merely deferred ready to bounce-back as soon as the restrictions are lifted but a hell a lot of the economy will have been permanently forfeited. You simply can’t have three months worth of haircuts in a day, or harvest spring crops in the autumn or any of a thousand different examples of economic inelasticity.

And that’s before we even take into account the direct economic damage of COVID itself, in additional mortality and morbidity.

Watch out Biden, there's a new candidate on the block:

We must now realize the promise of America by trusting God, unifying our vision and building our future. I am running for president of the United States ! #2020VISION

https://twitter.com/kanyewest/status/12 ... 94112?s=19

538 did a piece a few days ago on the various strands of African American politics. It cited Kanye West as one of the tiny group of Trump-supporting conservatives.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ch ... -politics/

It might have helped Trump if he'd bothered to do the research to find he's missed the filing deadlines to appear on the ballot in places like Texas, North Carolina, and Indiana and has 9 days to get 132,000 signatures in Florida.

dyqik wrote: Sun Jul 05, 2020 11:05 am It might have helped Trump if he'd bothered to do the research to find he's missed the filing deadlines to appear on the ballot in places like Texas, North Carolina, and Indiana and has 9 days to get 132,000 signatures in Florida.

Surely Trump has filed the right paperwork? The RNC wouldn’t be so neglectful?

Grumble wrote: Sun Jul 05, 2020 11:38 am

dyqik wrote: Sun Jul 05, 2020 11:05 am It might have helped Trump if he'd bothered to do the research to find he's missed the filing deadlines to appear on the ballot in places like Texas, North Carolina, and Indiana and has 9 days to get 132,000 signatures in Florida.

Surely Trump has filed the right paperwork? The RNC wouldn’t be so neglectful?

"He" here is Kanye.

dyqik wrote: Sun Jul 05, 2020 11:47 am

Grumble wrote: Sun Jul 05, 2020 11:38 am

dyqik wrote: Sun Jul 05, 2020 11:05 am It might have helped Trump if he'd bothered to do the research to find he's missed the filing deadlines to appear on the ballot in places like Texas, North Carolina, and Indiana and has 9 days to get 132,000 signatures in Florida.

Surely Trump has filed the right paperwork? The RNC wouldn’t be so neglectful?

"He" here is Kanye.

I did wonder if you meant that but couldn’t square Kanye running with Kanye helping Trump.

Grumble wrote: Sun Jul 05, 2020 12:31 pm

dyqik wrote: Sun Jul 05, 2020 11:47 am

Grumble wrote: Sun Jul 05, 2020 11:38 am

Surely Trump has filed the right paperwork? The RNC wouldn’t be so neglectful?

"He" here is Kanye.

I did wonder if you meant that but couldn’t square Kanye running with Kanye helping Trump.

Kanye has met with Trump several times, and appeared at conservative evangelical megachurches in Texas etc.

dyqik wrote: Sun Jul 05, 2020 1:11 pm

Grumble wrote: Sun Jul 05, 2020 12:31 pm

dyqik wrote: Sun Jul 05, 2020 11:47 am

"He" here is Kanye.

I did wonder if you meant that but couldn’t square Kanye running with Kanye helping Trump.

Kanye has met with Trump several times, and appeared at conservative evangelical megachurches in Texas etc.

Yes, I get that, I thought Kanye running for president might remove any people who might be supporting Trump because of Kanye’s endorsement. I can’t imagine that’s a big number, but if that happened it wouldn’t help Trump surely?

I think the hypothesis is that Kanye would take some Black votes away from Biden.

Earlier today:

racistDonaldTrump wrote:Racist tweet

Just now:

racistDonaldTrump wrote:Racist tweet

He's really going for this strategy. Get out the Confederate Flag vote!

What I find remarkable is that the openly racist approach he's now taking isn't dropping his numbers. His approval numbers have dropped pretty substantially in the last three months, but by less than five points, and from a peak that came from rallying round the flag with coronavirus. He's only about two points below his long-run average.

He's still disapproved of by a net 15 points, though. But the fact that it isn't worse than this after the last few months speaks volumes about 21st century America.

Edit: I do wonder about the impact of YouGov on the 538 outcomes. They generally weight yougov's polls quite low, but yougov absolutely bombard the collection of polls over and over again, with 8 or 9 polls per week, and to me seem to have a house effect that overstates the approval, at least in relation to the other polls. Nonetheless, 538's adjustment is based on the last election, when yougov minutely understated the approval, so they give it a lift by a point.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:47 am He's still disapproved of by a net 15 points, though. But the fact that it isn't worse than this after the last few months speaks volumes about 21st century America.

Yes, indeed. To adapt the old fable, in 2016 Clinton knew many things, and Trump knew one important thing, which was that the electorate's enthusiasm or tolerance for racism and sexism was far greater than the Democrats imagined.*






*Yes, we can add homophobia, ableism etc but the list gets is so long...

Everyone's getting in with the character assassination books!

Trump's niece's book has now been brought forward by two weeks to this Monday and now Melania's long-time friend who got ditched amongst rumours of misappropriation of inauguration funds is now bringing one out.

FlammableFlower wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:30 am Everyone's getting in with the character assassination books!

Trump's niece's book has now been brought forward by two weeks to this Monday and now Melania's long-time friend who got ditched amongst rumours of misappropriation of inauguration funds is now bringing one out.

If you get them out before Trump loses, the book will sell more. (Hoping I don't jinx the election by saying this!)

Martin_B wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 1:18 pm

FlammableFlower wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:30 am Everyone's getting in with the character assassination books!

Trump's niece's book has now been brought forward by two weeks to this Monday and now Melania's long-time friend who got ditched amongst rumours of misappropriation of inauguration funds is now bringing one out.

If you get them out before Trump loses, the book will sell more. (Hoping I don't jinx the election by saying this!)

Well, senior republicans must be wondering on the odds of Trump making it to the election, and what they'd do if he cannot be on the ticket. Somehow, I don't think there'd be a sympathy vote for any other GOP candidate. Especially if people put out that it was the Republican establishment that forced Trump out (which it probably would have to be, unless he actually dies before then).

Remarkable political ad. Perhaps it has a target demographic of one person. https://twitter.com/gtconway3d/status/1 ... 94849?s=21

Martin_B wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 1:18 pm

FlammableFlower wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:30 am Everyone's getting in with the character assassination books!

Trump's niece's book has now been brought forward by two weeks to this Monday and now Melania's long-time friend who got ditched amongst rumours of misappropriation of inauguration funds is now bringing one out.

If you get them out before Trump loses, the book will sell more. (Hoping I don't jinx the election by saying this!)

It's certainly a case of cashing out while you can. With a bonus of being seen to be helping to get rid of him.

Woodchopper wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 3:32 pm Remarkable political ad. Perhaps it has a target demographic of one person. https://twitter.com/gtconway3d/status/1 ... 94849?s=21

Wow, I wonder if it’ll hit the target.