Scrutable

bjn wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 8:30 am I’m not overly concerned as to exactly how UKR did it, the doing was the important bit. Plus a bit of mystery helps them by keeping the RU forces guessing.

Having the capability to do it again is important, whether in the same way they just did it or in a different way.

How matters a lot. The war ends when Putin leans out a high window. This was the most valuable asset Putin had and Ukraine achieving this is staggering. It is Russian incompetence comparable to Hostomel - war losing incompetence.

And not being a missile manufactured in the west obviously makes a big difference to how well our friend Hereinstold is sleeping...

On closer inspection, there's a bunch of glowing motes in the immediate aftermath of the blast. I think, though this is only informed speculation, that they coul be partially burned fuel from a thermobaric warhead.

lpm wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 8:42 am

bjn wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 8:30 am I’m not overly concerned as to exactly how UKR did it, the doing was the important bit. Plus a bit of mystery helps them by keeping the RU forces guessing.

Having the capability to do it again is important, whether in the same way they just did it or in a different way.

How matters a lot. The war ends when Putin leans out a high window. This was the most valuable asset Putin had and Ukraine achieving this is staggering. It is Russian incompetence comparable to Hostomel - war losing incompetence.

And not being a missile manufactured in the west obviously makes a big difference to how well our friend Hereinstold is sleeping...

A key question is whether Ukraine can do that again. If it can strike the Kerch bridge repeatedly then Russia is in a far more serious position than if this attack was a one-off and the bridge can be repaired.

A Ukrainian made missile could presumably be used again, whereas a truck bomb could be difficult to repeat.

Woodchopper wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 8:12 am It appears that the Kerch bridge was the only rail link from Russia to occupied Ukraine east of Donetsk.

There is a line going soutwest from Donetsk (heading to Mariupol with lnes to the west toward Melitopol). See here and here.

However, near Stepne and Olhynka the line passes within a few kilometers from the front line. See here> https://liveuamap.com/ sorry I can't seem to be able to send a direct link, just zoom into Donetsk and look to the south west.

That has to make the line unusable, especially for heavy freight traffic.

So Russia had to rely upon the Kerch bridge to supply everything in Southern Ukraine.

It'll be possible to ship things over the strait by boat but that makes for a huge bottleneck. There are of course roads from Russia into southern Ukraine. But Russia never had enough trucks to supply its army, and it has lost a huge quantity of them since February.

Funny you should mention that other line. It goes via Illovaisk. Illovaisk station had a visit today from one or more GMLRS missiles.

One thing which strikes me against a planted bomb under the bridge is that the blast took out the outboard road. If you were going to plant a single bomb which had the best potential for damage, you'd have planted the bomb under the other (inboard) road bridge as that would be more likely to also impact the rail bridge.

That they got the fuel train crossing the rail bridge causing the subsequent fire and damage to the rail bridge is due to the timing of explosion; the rail bridge seems like it would have survived the blast relatively unscathed had the train not been there.

The rail bridge is on the southern side of the road bridge, so a truck bomb would be travelling into Crimea from Russia. Alternatively, a missile fired from Ukraine would hit the outboard road first. The bridge is about 300 km from Ukrainian held territory, so if it was a missile, it's a timely reminder to Russia that some major population areas are potentially reachable by Ukraine.

It was a last birthday present to Putin. Not a last present on his birthday. A present on his last birthday.

lpm wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 8:28 am The Russians are saying it's between Tuzla and Tanan.

So it won't be. Anything between Tuzla and Crimea is all Ukraine territory.

This image from TASS makes it look fairly close to the arch, but I might be getting something wrong.

In two minds about the wisdom of this. Yes - it takes out a major route for reinforcements. But it also takes out a route for retreat. And surely retreat should be the main objective.

If Ukrainian forces are going to attempt to enter Crimea from the north - to take on Russian forces that can no longer easily retreat back to Russia proper - there are only a few narrow entry points from the north. This could create the situation where Ukrainian forces become sufficiently concentrated in one location that use of non-conventional weapons could be viewed as having tactical value.

bob sterman wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 9:24 am In two minds about the wisdom of this. Yes - it takes out a major route for reinforcements. But it also takes out a route for retreat. And surely retreat should be the main objective.

If Ukrainian forces are going to attempt to enter Crimea from the north - to take on Russian forces that can no longer easily retreat back to Russia proper - there are only a few narrow entry points from the north. This could create the situation where Ukrainian forces become sufficiently concentrated in one location that use of non-conventional weapons could be viewed as having tactical value.

One roadway is still intact. They can still drive out, at least in light vehicles.

Grumble wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 9:27 am

bob sterman wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 9:24 am In two minds about the wisdom of this. Yes - it takes out a major route for reinforcements. But it also takes out a route for retreat. And surely retreat should be the main objective.

If Ukrainian forces are going to attempt to enter Crimea from the north - to take on Russian forces that can no longer easily retreat back to Russia proper - there are only a few narrow entry points from the north. This could create the situation where Ukrainian forces become sufficiently concentrated in one location that use of non-conventional weapons could be viewed as having tactical value.

One roadway is still intact. They can still drive out, at least in light vehicles.

Ah. Keeping this open could be a very good idea. If it allows Russian conscripts to flee as part of a disorganised retreat where they desert their posts - and steal cars, trucks and horses to get out!

Summary of what can be gleaned from the videos. I agree that the explosion appears to have been above rather than below the bridge.
https://twitter.com/n_waters89/status/1 ... LTq7EnKHBw

Putin is going to blame the dolphins. They were off chasing fish instead of defending his bridge.

Only 3 months ago, Russian propaganda was claiming that the Crimea bridge was impossible to attack because of 20 different modes of protection covering it, including military dolphins

https://twitter.com/Elizrael/status/1578675708876193793

Reports that Russia had 15 days supply of fuel in the Crimea.

Or as had been pointed out, 15 days on their books... So probably less in reality

So we've gone from two road carriageways and one rail bridge to one road carriageway, with the rail bridge out of action for now, but probably not forever.

It's going to cause panic and shortages, but it might not have as big an effect on supplies long term as we hoped.

Unless, of course, the strike can be repeated. It it is Hrim-2, then ballistic missiles are desperately hard to intercept.

A Ukrainian official has jokingly claimed that the bridge has suffered catastrophic, explosive failure due to Russia's poor construction and quality control. Trollolololl.
I also enjoyed this:

EACLucifer wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 10:11 am So we've gone from two road carriageways and one rail bridge to one road carriageway, with the rail bridge out of action for now, but probably not forever.

We know that one carriageway hasn't joined the Moskva. But we don't know that the remaining one can be used for heavy goods traffic. Even if it is structurally sound the Russians may need to use it to park construction equipment if they are to repair the rest of the bridge.

EACLucifer wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 10:11 am It's going to cause panic and shortages, but it might not have as big an effect on supplies long term as we hoped.

Even if they are to truck things in. They may not have enough trucks to supply the army via road from Donetsk?

At Kerch, offloading everything from the train and on to trucks and then back again will cause massive delays. Even then, they'll need a huge number of trucks and it will be a huge bottleneck. Also, as mentioned, will using the remaining carriageway for heavy transport delay repairs?

Looks bad to me until they can repair the rail bridge.

lpm wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 9:55 am

Only 3 months ago, Russian propaganda was claiming that the Crimea bridge was impossible to attack because of 20 different modes of protection covering it, including military dolphins

Ukraine noticed the weak point at No.16

Hot news from TASS: trains over the bridge are cancelled.

TimW wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 11:15 am Hot news from TASS: trains over the bridge are cancelled.

Different sort of rail strike

EACLucifer wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 10:11 am So we've gone from two road carriageways and one rail bridge to one road carriageway, with the rail bridge out of action for now, but probably not forever.

It's going to cause panic and shortages, but it might not have as big an effect on supplies long term as we hoped.

Unless, of course, the strike can be repeated. It it is Hrim-2, then ballistic missiles are desperately hard to intercept.

Sure. But from a broader perspective:

- Ukraine has home advantage
- Ukraine has more troops
- Ukraine has far better trained troops
- Ukraine has won the morale war
- Ukraine has much higher quality of equipment
- Ukraine has short supply lines

The outcome is inevitable and it's just about how Ukraine can prosecute the endgame most efficiently. Worsening Russia's already problematic supply situation isn't key to the endgame, whereas panic and shortages might be. Russian leadership excluding Putin will want to exit the war with Crimea still securely in possession. Shaking that confidence in holding Crimea is key to forcing them to act now, rather than waiting till Crimea is more and more under stress.

An insecure bridge is more a political problem for Putin than a supply problem. If they can't trust the bridge, they can't be confident about the security of Crimea, so they can't allow Putin to continue his reckless stupidity.

Cutting supply lines is better than permitting lines of retreat. Starving the Russian war machine will cause its collapse. This bridge is one that Ukraine doesn't want or need. If Russia left tonorrow I'd expect Ukraine to still want to knock it down.

Woodchopper wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 11:03 am

EACLucifer wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 10:11 am So we've gone from two road carriageways and one rail bridge to one road carriageway, with the rail bridge out of action for now, but probably not forever.

We know that one carriageway hasn't joined the Moskva. But we don't know that the remaining one can be used for heavy goods traffic. Even if it is structurally sound the Russians may need to use it to park construction equipment if they are to repair the rest of the bridge.

EACLucifer wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 10:11 am It's going to cause panic and shortages, but it might not have as big an effect on supplies long term as we hoped.

Even if they are to truck things in. They may not have enough trucks to supply the army via road from Donetsk?

At Kerch, offloading everything from the train and on to trucks and then back again will cause massive delays. Even then, they'll need a huge number of trucks and it will be a huge bottleneck. Also, as mentioned, will using the remaining carriageway for heavy transport delay repairs?

Looks bad to me until they can repair the rail bridge.

Agree with all of this, just managing expectations. It's not complete severance of the bridge, but for the time being it's out of action.

It's a heavy blow against Russia's logistics in the south, possibly a decisive one.

For now, they might be able to ship to Sevastopol by sea, but they were so worried about the risks to ships in Sevastopol they virtually stopped using the harbour there.

TopBadger wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 11:22 am Cutting supply lines is better than permitting lines of retreat. Starving the Russian war machine will cause its collapse. This bridge is one that Ukraine doesn't want or need. If Russia left tonorrow I'd expect Ukraine to still want to knock it down.

This. And with thousands of Ukrainian servicepeople and vastly more Ukrainian civilians - especially children - abducted to Russia, it's better soldiers surrender than flee, so as to fill up the exchange fund.

Gfamily wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 11:20 am

TimW wrote: Sat Oct 08, 2022 11:15 am Hot news from TASS: trains over the bridge are cancelled.

Different sort of rail strike

Smoking