Scrutable

IvanV wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:20 am Despite getting so few seats from so much vote, I don't see Nigel Farage calling for PR. I don't think he's interested in having 100 seats in parliament. He's more interested in taking over or replacing the Tories, when he would then himself benefit from the FPTP advantage enjoyed in much of Britain by a single dominant right wing party, as the Tories have tended to be. His party did "benefit" from the more nearly PR-like voting system for the European Parliament, to get several MEPs. But he didn't seem to know what to do with them, except to fiddle the expenses system to get party funding money. Bit harder to do that in Westminster.

IvanV wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:20 am

TopBadger wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:10 am Farage is great at single issue politics (first Brexit, now Immigration) but I'd bet less than 10% of Reform voters know his position on the NHS (which is to sell it off) and wouldn't want that to happen. Which just shows that a large number of people either aren't really paying attention at all.

Despite getting so few seats from so much vote, I don't see Nigel Farage calling for PR. I don't think he's interested in having 100 seats in parliament. He's more interested in taking over or replacing the Tories, when he would then himself benefit from the FPTP advantage enjoyed in much of Britain by a single dominant right wing party, as the Tories have tended to be.

shpalman wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:48 am Well thank f.ck for FPTP or else they'd have MPs in parliament in proportion to that vote share and the Conservatives would have to have them in its opposition coalition.

TopBadger wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:35 am I'm still thinking PR is better overall.

shpalman wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:48 am Sleaford and North Hykeham held by the Conservatives despite a lot of their votes going across to Reform.

Grumble wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:39 am Point made on Twitter, Reform vote share only 2% up on UKIP vote in 2015. Not a massive swing.

https://x.com/jneill/status/1809142711519207866

Well thank f.ck for FPTP or else they'd have MPs in parliament in proportion to that vote share and the Conservatives would have to have them in its opposition coalition.

lpm wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:33 am It's raining... will Sunak have an umbrella... to use an umbrella is to admit he made a mistake last time, to not use an umbrella makes him look silly again...

Another tense moment while we wait for the outcome.

lpm wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:33 am It's raining... will Sunak have an umbrella... to use an umbrella is to admit he made a mistake last time, to not use an umbrella makes him look silly again...

Another tense moment while we wait for the outcome.

bob sterman wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:32 am Saw Carla Denyer leader of the Green Party on Channel 4 saying that her party wanted to "shift the Overton Window".

Clearly forgetting the first rule of shift the Overton Window club - don't talk about the "Overton Window" (i.e. you can't shift the window by talking to the public using little known terminology from political science).

jimbob wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:40 am That is why I actually want AV.

You can vote against candidates so the least unpopular person wins

TimW wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:49 am

jimbob wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:40 am That is why I actually want AV.

You can vote against candidates so the least unpopular person wins

AV would have been an improvement. That arse Cameron lied about it being unfair.

Maybe AV+ would work OK?

IvanV wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:01 am So Sunak is resigning as leader once a system to chose his successor is in place. No one is surprised, even though, just like Cameron with the referendum, he said he wouldn't.

He listed his "achievements" in his speech. Some were in the false/debatable category. Some were largely outside his control (eg lower inflation). And the rest were things I wouldn't be proud of. I think there was basically nothing really to be proud of that he could claim was his. At least he said he respected Starmer, thought he was a decent guy.

TopBadger wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:35 am

IvanV wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:20 am

TopBadger wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:10 am Farage is great at single issue politics (first Brexit, now Immigration) but I'd bet less than 10% of Reform voters know his position on the NHS (which is to sell it off) and wouldn't want that to happen. Which just shows that a large number of people either aren't really paying attention at all.

Despite getting so few seats from so much vote, I don't see Nigel Farage calling for PR. I don't think he's interested in having 100 seats in parliament. He's more interested in taking over or replacing the Tories, when he would then himself benefit from the FPTP advantage enjoyed in much of Britain by a single dominant right wing party, as the Tories have tended to be.

Absolutely... Above shpalman said:

shpalman wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:48 am Well thank f.ck for FPTP or else they'd have MPs in parliament in proportion to that vote share and the Conservatives would have to have them in its opposition coalition.

Under PR we'd still have a Labour led coalition, and prior elections may have also generated Labour Led coalitions or at least moderated Tory-ones.

Given that LD policies now put them to the left of Labour, you'd think LD's would govern with Labour preferentially and the 60% that vote center-left would no longer have to endure long stretches of right wing governments.

I'm still thinking PR is better overall.

lpm wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:30 am Two seats left:

South Basildon and East Thurrock - full recount this afternoon, three-way marginal REF vs LAB vs CON. Early reports had a REF win.

Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire - recount tomorrow, they can't be arsed today, SNP vs LibDem

IvanV wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 11:01 am

lpm wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:30 am Two seats left:

South Basildon and East Thurrock - full recount this afternoon, three-way marginal REF vs LAB vs CON. Early reports had a REF win.

Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire - recount tomorrow, they can't be arsed today, SNP vs LibDem

I see in the adjacent seat of Basildon and Billericay, Con won by 20 votes from Labour, and Reform 1,500 behind. That was after 2 recounts and a bundle check. Yet that's all done.

It does seem to be all a bit quicker than previous times. In previous elections, we'd still be waiting for the NI seats as they didn't start the count till 9am or something. And various Scottish seats with polling stations on islands would need to wait for boats to transport them to the count centre.

dyqik wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 11:04 am One of the main Scottish seats with that issue won't restart counting until tomorrow.

bob sterman wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 11:15 am First misstep in 2029 election campaign.

Celebratory crowds in Downing St have been issued with Union flags, Welsh flags and Scottish flags to wave. A key flag missing.