Scrutable

lpm wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:09 pm WHO says Europe is now the epicentre of the pandemic, which gives us a good opportunity to argue about use of the word epicentre.

I saw that m'self; and thought of here: and then thought, 'fuckit why bother?'.

Frau HS has asthma, so I am concerned about isolating at home if I become ill.

That said, this virus is contagious before symptoms appear, so it will be likely we get it at roughly the same time.

I’m extremely worried about how we will cope with this, so we have made the decision to practically isolate ourselves from human contact unless absolutely essential.

@headshot and anyone else in similar predicament.

Tracy Brabin MP has put a call out for people in the creative industries to get in contact regarding how they are being affected. She's putting together a dossier to take to the govt.

Thank you! I’ll seek it out.

All the best to you, headshot.

Here’s a question I haven’t found the answer to yet.
Self-isolation advice is straightforward- stay home for 7 days, etc. I have heard (radio 4 I think) that as things develop, whole families may be asked to self-isolate for 14 days. Would we absolutely have to stay home under these restrictions, or is it just about not being in contact with others - eg could I take kids out for a walk if we stayed >2m away from everybody?
Apologies if the specifics of this are out and about somewhere, I haven’t been able to find them yet.

If infected, must not leave house.

If living with someone infected, can leave house.

My GP surgery shut yesterday. Undergoing a deep clean. A Covid patient was there. Little village museum also closed for deep clean.

I'm more surprised than I should be. The practice has 8,000 people on it. If there are currently 5,000 to 10,000 UK cases you would expect to see 1 in a 8,000 practice.

My little village of 300 people is a couple of miles away. But feels close and real now.

JellyandJackson wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:55 am Here’s a question I haven’t found the answer to yet.
Self-isolation advice is straightforward- stay home for 7 days, etc. I have heard (radio 4 I think) that as things develop, whole families may be asked to self-isolate for 14 days. Would we absolutely have to stay home under these restrictions, or is it just about not being in contact with others - eg could I take kids out for a walk if we stayed >2m away from everybody?
Apologies if the specifics of this are out and about somewhere, I haven’t been able to find them yet.

Link to full rule sheet.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... -infection

badger wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:44 am I also think "choose to run a high daily infection rate" is not the plan, or poorly worded. They want to "flatten the curve" too.

Flatten at a higher level, hoping for huge numbers of non-vulnerable people to catch it, recover and be immune.

The plan is absolutely and almost explicitly stating that the daily infection rate is to be higher than other EU countries. The fundamental idea is the belief they will be low now, then uncontrolled very high later on this year; the UK will be a constant high throughout the year.

You can't defend the UK plan without implying the WHO and nearly all other EU countries are wrong.

A few of us were going to go to a holiday resort weekend music club thing today, but now we're not. So there's that too.

A car with loudspeakers fixed to the roof just drove down our street broadcasting a message from the local government to "be responsible". It felt a bit like a scifi dystopia, only it's sunny, and the message came from a knackered Ford Fiesta rather than a spaceship.

Meanwhile, everywhere has sold out of meat, which is presumably what people are using when they run out of toilet paper? Yesterday evening the butcher told my wife to come back first thing in the morning, because "meat is disappearing everywhere".

Amazing how we can all switch to not flying, driving less, working from home and so on overnight when a virus immediately threatens our health, but can't get a plan together over decades of knowing that climate change is going to kill us all. I suspect some of the systems put in place now will remain so, as businesses are being forced to adopt more resilient working methods with a bonus green spin.

Meanwhile, in England, my mum has gone to goat yoga. I don't think they're wiping down the goats between everybody petting them, but she's 66 and generally healthy so she might as well get on with it.

lpm wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:05 am My GP surgery shut yesterday. Undergoing a deep clean. A Covid patient was there. Little village museum also closed for deep clean.

I'm more surprised than I should be. The practice has 8,000 people on it. If there are currently 5,000 to 10,000 UK cases you would expect to see 1 in a 8,000 practice.

Officially there were about 800 cases as of yesterday morning. A known covid patient would show up in the official number in the next day or two.

Does this "5000-10000 UK cases" refer to there actually being that number of asymptomatic/mild unnoticed cases compared to the official number, or does it refer to there being that number of already infected people who are incubating the infection and are going to show up in the official statistics in about a week? Because the last few days point to a doubling time in the UK of 3 days and the extrapolation of this passes through the 5000-10000 range in 7-9 days from now.

In the former case, you're hoping that the virus is so mild as to be virtually undetected in about 90% of cases, which correspondingly means that the peak number of infections is not going to look like a substantial fraction of the population but instead less than 10% of it.

I was hoping that until I saw this: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=747&p=21773&hilit=influenza#p21773

In the latter case, you're basically saying f.ck it everyone's already infected might as well get it over with, at least the survivors will be immune.

... and hasn't a case of someone catching the virus a second time already been seen anyway?

Looks like I've now got my MIL living with us for the foreseeable in a weeks time as she can't get home to Spain. She's just been in New York and I asked her not to come here until 14 days were up. But now she's stuck once she finishes this work placement with nowhere to go.

Bird on a Fire wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:40 am Meanwhile, in England, my mum has gone to goat yoga. I don't think they're wiping down the goats between everybody petting them, but she's 66 and generally healthy so she might as well get on with it.

Sorry, can we briefly pause the COVID 19 conversation to ask what the f.ck?

Vertigowooyay wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:16 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:40 am Meanwhile, in England, my mum has gone to goat yoga. I don't think they're wiping down the goats between everybody petting them, but she's 66 and generally healthy so she might as well get on with it.

Sorry, can we briefly pause the COVID 19 conversation to ask what the f.ck?

My wife's cousins run goat yoga on their ranch outside Dallas.

The most important thing to know is that "goat yoga" scans the same as "rock lobster".

Vertigowooyay wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:16 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:40 am Meanwhile, in England, my mum has gone to goat yoga. I don't think they're wiping down the goats between everybody petting them, but she's 66 and generally healthy so she might as well get on with it.

Sorry, can we briefly pause the COVID 19 conversation to ask what the f.ck?

It's something to do with used cars...

Am semi-self-isolating and yesterday got a ring at the doorbell from the postman explaining that I had a registered letter, but he couldn't give it to me because of Covid restrictions, but I had to got to collect it at the post office. Thus protecting 1 person (postman) from contact while exposing an unknown number of others, including other post office staff. When I went to pick it up it was a speeding fine from the beginning of September, payable in less than 5 days, otherwise go directly to gulag ...only in Italy!

lpm wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:08 am Link to full rule sheet.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... -infection

I’m almost surprised not to see “paint a cross on your front door in black or red paint” in there

dyqik wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:24 pm

Vertigowooyay wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:16 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:40 am Meanwhile, in England, my mum has gone to goat yoga. I don't think they're wiping down the goats between everybody petting them, but she's 66 and generally healthy so she might as well get on with it.

Sorry, can we briefly pause the COVID 19 conversation to ask what the f.ck?

My wife's cousins run goat yoga on their ranch outside Dallas.

The most important thing to know is that "goat yoga" scans the same as "rock lobster".

Thank you for that ear-worm.

(although the relatively high CFR observed here would hopefully suggest that there are about 6 times as many mild/asymptomatic cases compared to the official figures... this seems to be borne out by the ridiculously 793ish ideas on the Italian "physicists think they know anything useful about covid-19" facebook group)

bjn wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:36 pm

dyqik wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:24 pm

Vertigowooyay wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:16 pm

Sorry, can we briefly pause the COVID 19 conversation to ask what the f.ck?

My wife's cousins run goat yoga on their ranch outside Dallas.

The most important thing to know is that "goat yoga" scans the same as "rock lobster".

Thank you for that ear-worm.

At least it's not "covid nineteen" to the tune of "Come On Eileen".

Vertigowooyay wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:16 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:40 am Meanwhile, in England, my mum has gone to goat yoga. I don't think they're wiping down the goats between everybody petting them, but she's 66 and generally healthy so she might as well get on with it.

Sorry, can we briefly pause the COVID 19 conversation to ask what the f.ck?

As the name suggests, it's a fairly normal yoga class, but in a room that also contains lots of goats. The goats kind of wander around a bit, then at the end everybody had about 10 minutes to just pet the goats.

So, um, yes - what the f.ck.

My mum has always liked goats (and used to keep some) and also likes yoga (and used to teach it when she was younger), but I had no idea that those interests intersected sufficiently frequently for "goga" to be a commercially-viable enterprise.

Amazingly, I just found out that one of my friends was there too - a 25 year old Texan girl (though she's lived in the UK for decades, so doubt she knows dyqik's wife's cousin) who I have always thought of as cool and normal. And, to be honest, I think this is so niche and bizarre that it makes my mum cooler too.

dyqik wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:24 pm The most important thing to know is that "goat yoga" scans the same as "rock lobster".

shpalman wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:39 pm At least it's not "covid nineteen" to the tune of "Come On Eileen".

I hate you both.