Scrutable

Is it bad if the GOP candidate for governor of a swing state wrote that he was the Black Hitler on p.rn forums, praised transgender p.rn actors while seeking to ban gender transitioning, and posted posed photos of his 1/6th scale SS soldier dolls on line?

dyqik wrote: Thu Sep 19, 2024 9:38 pm Is it bad if the GOP candidate for governor of a swing state wrote that he was the Black Hitler on p.rn forums, praised transgender p.rn actors while seeking to ban gender transitioning, and posted posed photos of his 1/6th scale SS soldier dolls on line?

Ok, Black Nazi rather than Black Hitler

He has positive points that make him popular with the MAGA crowd though.

Such as having affairs.

And trying to sneak a look at naked girls in changing rooms.

And being Islamophobic.

And above all, he hates women.

You missed out "wanting to own slaves".

Oh, and said "some people need killing", referencing Democrats

dyqik wrote: Thu Sep 19, 2024 9:57 pm

dyqik wrote: Thu Sep 19, 2024 9:38 pm Is it bad if the GOP candidate for governor of a swing state wrote that he was the Black Hitler on p.rn forums, praised transgender p.rn actors while seeking to ban gender transitioning, and posted posed photos of his 1/6th scale SS soldier dolls on line?

Ok, Black Nazi rather than Black Hitler

Riffing on what JayUtah said in internationalskeptics.com

I just realized that when Vance called Trump "America's Hitler," it was intended as a compliment.

Maybe he was after Vance's endorsement?

Who's the latest nazi then?

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Fri Sep 20, 2024 8:15 am Who's the latest nazi then?

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/19/politics ... index.html

lpm had obviously logged in on dyqik's account

I can't believe that nearly 50% of the country thinks that voting for Trump's GOP is a good idea.

TopBadger wrote: Fri Sep 20, 2024 9:18 am I can't believe that nearly 50% of the country thinks that voting for Trump's GOP is a good idea.

50% of voters, which skew white and old.

47% to 49% of voters.

Many of whom won't know anything about this, because their only news sources are Fox/News Max/ONAN and Sinclair owned local TV stations.

This could be an interesting talk. Ian Dunt and Yascha Mounk on the US election. I’m less fussed about Dunt but read Mounk’s latest book recently and found it interesting.

https://www.eventbrite.com/e/trump-vs-h ... 6768591497

Still too close for my comfort

jimbob wrote: Fri Sep 27, 2024 5:04 pm Still too close for my comfort

Anything less that a 50 point lead for Harris is closer than it really should be.

I think she's one state away from winning the EC as it stands.

Trump beat his polling in both 2016 and 2020.

Show how badly poor Joe was losing.

lpm wrote: Fri Sep 27, 2024 8:10 pm I think she's one state away from winning the EC as it stands.

Trump beat his polling in both 2016 and 2020.

Show how badly poor Joe was losing.

This year, I'd expect Harris to easily beat her polling.

Pollsters will still not deal with the reality that their samples are highly biased towards people unable to use call screening, and that their likely voter screens ignore the extremely democratic bias of new voters.

I don't disagree.

But the 2020 polls in Pennsylvania had Biden +3 and he won by +1.

538/ABC for Pennsylvania currently has Harris +1.7.

Can never underestimate the stupidity of American voters.

One other thing is that the general polls show Harris doing better than Biden with both college and non-college whites, but doing worse with young people and people of color.

But polls specifically of young people and of people of color show Harris doing much better than Biden with those groups.

Those two groups are hard to poll well with general polling.

I dunno, I think Trump will win. That's less a statistical analysis and more general depression about the state of the world.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Mon Sep 30, 2024 8:29 am I dunno, I think Trump will win. That's less a statistical analysis and more general depression about the state of the world.

I'm not quite as sure as you, but can easily imagine unpleasant procedural tricks giving it to Trump