Scrutable

bob sterman wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 11:15 am First misstep in 2029 election campaign.

Celebratory crowds in Downing St have been issued with Union flags, Welsh flags and Scottish flags to wave. A key flag missing.

Boxes of English flags probably cost more at the moment due to the footy.

His speech was a bit... dull...

lpm wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 11:56 am His speech was a bit... dull...

If his entire 5 years is dull that's fine by me, I think we need dull after 14 years of chaos. All he needs to do is focus on delivery and improving our collective lot.

lpm wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 11:56 am His speech was a bit... dull...

Yes - a bit "strong and stable" rather than "sunlit uplands"

lpm wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 11:56 am His speech was a bit... dull...

Surely you didn't expect otherwise?

But I too am happy with dull, as long as it comes with some positive action.

bob sterman wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:03 pm

lpm wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 11:56 am His speech was a bit... dull...

Yes - a bit "strong and stable" rather than "sunlit uplands"

Anyone remember how eager we were to get a John Smith government in the early 90s as a boring bank manager type seemed so much preferable to what we had?

Course that was the quaint old-timey days when people still had a concept of a 'bank manager' as a solid, dull but dependable authority figure in the local community. Or indeed a 'bank'.

Sunak is resigning as Tory leader once they've sorted out how to find a replacement.

Right now, you need 100 of 121 Tory MPs to nominate each candidate to start the process. And only 19 MPs to trigger a leadership challenge.

ETA: and maybe only 5 members of the 1922 committee remain. So first they need to elect a new committee to set the rules for how to get a new leader.

My thoughts on the vote share - the drop in labour vote seems to be at the hands of a rise in independents. 6.7 point rise in support for indies. A very big chunk of that will be the Muslim protest vote.

Add that 6.7 point rise to labour's vote instead, the tories would have dropped to third place. I wonder about a world where starmer didn't accidentally condone Israeli war crimes.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:31 pm My thoughts on the vote share - the drop in labour vote seems to be at the hands of a rise in independents. 6.7 point rise in support for indies. A very big chunk of that will be the Muslim protest vote.

Add that 6.7 point rise to labour's vote instead, the tories would have dropped to third place. I wonder about a world where starmer didn't accidentally condone Israeli war crimes.

I don't think that's right, the indies vote was too localised. Can't just spread it across the country. It didn't hand any seats to CON except for that Leicester one and maybe a handful elsewhere.

Yeah, that's fair. It wouldn't have got them many more MPs, but it would have bolstered their voting support and stopped some discourse b.llsh.t.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:29 am

lpm wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:17 am And Reform haven't taken Barnsley South

This is more important than Ashfield. The East Midlands has already been marked for fencing off and destroying. At least Yorkshire can still be salvaged.

Oi! Bassetlaw (my mum's constituency) didn't go Reform*, and all-but-two of the constituencies in Nottinghamshire are Labour (the only one non-Reform/Labour is Newark, but that's almost Lincolnshire), as are all the constituencies in Derbyshire. Aside from backing the wrong horse in the miners' strike, what's the problem with us?


*This means the end of the Johnson arse-licker Rylan Clark-Neal Brendan Clarke-Smith, who voted against free school meals as it would be nationalising children

discovolante wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:43 am

lpm wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 4:50 am FISHNUT!!

Liam Fox gone

Oh I'm so glad. About time.

I wish I didn't have to work today too much to digest and I'm so so tired.

Same. I got about 3 1/2 hours sleep and I'm just drained. We left the count at about 2pm but I didn't get to sleep until 4ish as it was just too much fun watching the annihilation unfold.

If Sunak had lost his seat, would he still be PM?

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 2:52 am Michael Fabricant has lost his seat, a few months after his partner Andy Street lost his mayoralty. Sad year for their household, happy year for everyone else.

I was amazed when I found out they were a couple. There is a sitcom and a half to be made there.

Trinucleus wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:31 pm If Sunak had lost his seat, would he still be PM?

Probably, as he was appointed by the King.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:31 pm My thoughts on the vote share - the drop in labour vote seems to be at the hands of a rise in independents. 6.7 point rise in support for indies.

Where are you getting that 6.7 figure from? Guardian results page currently has Other on 2.9 % and Workers (who it seems fair to lump in with them) on 0.7 %.

Greens are up 4.2 points on 2019 though, and some of that is probably also related to Gaza.

eta: I think for low turnout in general and low Labour vote share in particular we also can’t rule out some combination of: ID requirement, students on holiday, and a general feeling that Labour were certain to win.

ITV said independents and other had 13ish% of the vote, unless I misread it

Trinucleus wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:31 pm If Sunak had lost his seat, would he still be PM?

The PM does not have to be an MP.

Sunak was not an MP for a few weeks, when parliament was dissolved. He just carried on being PM.

When the Commons starts to assemble on Monday it is not practical to have a PM who is not an MP, as they need to answer questions in the Commons.

dyqik wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:26 am Neither vote shares nor party policies and campaigns would be the same under a PR system. You can't completely change the game theory for both parties and the voters, and expect the same vote shares. Media coverage would probably shift substantially as well.

FTP is the glue holding the Tory party and the Labour party together. With PR the Socialist and the NatCons will split. And the libdems will probably wither.

TimW wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:31 am He'll moan on and on and on about how the system's corrupt and unfair to (his) voters.
Then when his situation changes he'll moan on and on and on about something else.

I fully expect that what he won't do is the donkey work of an MP in helping to sort out problems for his constituents.

Gfamily wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 2:30 pm

TimW wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:31 am He'll moan on and on and on about how the system's corrupt and unfair to (his) voters.
Then when his situation changes he'll moan on and on and on about something else.

I fully expect that what he won't do is the donkey work of an MP in helping to sort out problems for his constituents.

Are you suggesting he’s of an ilk with George Galloway? Heaven forbid!

Will Starmer as PM clean up Parliament to a greater or lesser extent or will it be the same old sh.t show.

If he does improve standards will Farage and his ilk come a cropper. I’m thinking of the amount of Short Money he is likely to get for a lot of votes but only a few seats.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland- ... s-65375842

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:43 pm ITV said independents and other had 13ish% of the vote, unless I misread it

You get to about 13% if you include everyone after deducting Lab, Con, Ref, LD, SNP and PC. Though it's a bit funny choosing that list as the Greens got more than SNP & PC put together. But I can't really see another plausible way of getting to 13%.

Full list of %ages on the BBC.

For some reason I didn't spot it until just now, but the Labour vote at 33.7% is only 1.6% up on 2019, and a long way short of the 40%-ish in the forecasts. Clearly a lot of centre/left voted LD to keep the Tories out. But it's still extraordinary to get 412 seats (63.4% of the seats) on 33.7% of the vote. Clearly there was that implicit tactical cooperation by voters on the centre/left, so that collectively Labour and LibDems got 483 (74.3% of the seats) on 45.9% of the vote. While there was in-fighting on the right, so that Con+Reform with 38.0% of the vote got only 125 seats (19.2%).

I realise that under PR the votes would be different. But if we take these numbers as an illustration, then under PR, Lab and LibDem would effectively need the Greens to get a majority. Con, Reform & LibDen would also be a majority. Implausible at this time and place, but in some other countries we have seen that kind of coalition formed.

A bit of light relief from Munya Chawawa

https://x.com/munyachawawa/status/18091 ... 15794?s=61

noggins wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 2:17 pm

dyqik wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:26 am Neither vote shares nor party policies and campaigns would be the same under a PR system. You can't completely change the game theory for both parties and the voters, and expect the same vote shares. Media coverage would probably shift substantially as well.

FTP is the glue holding the Tory party and the Labour party together. With PR the Socialist and the NatCons will split. And the libdems will probably wither.

I saw a comment that the effect of introducing PR in Australia was to make anything outside the two main parties unviable. In the UK, I'd expect a major realignment of what the two main party brands stood for as well as part of this. The Tories would probably have to ditch the more extreme racists if they wanted an overall majority, or a lasting coalition with the right of the Lib Dems. Labour would probably have to shed the more ardent socialists, and absorb the Lib Dem left and some of the Greens. Both would probably have to then form coalitions with those they've shed from time to time.

I'd expect things to be a little different in the UK with strongly regional parties still getting a share - SNP would probably get a few seats, Lib Dems might if they converted to a southern England only party, NI would do it's own thing.