Scrutable

EACLucifer wrote: Sun Oct 09, 2022 8:10 pm

Gfamily wrote: Sun Oct 09, 2022 7:38 pm
The clip on the BBC report ( https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63192757 ) shows a lot of 'something' flying over the bridge from the right.

That's what I mentioned earlier. I was wondering if it was unburnt fuel from a thermobaric warhead, though not all thermobarics use solid fuel.

I can't find where I saw the footage previously, and the BBC's media player doesn't allow very quick pausing and frame by frame, but I think the flash started more than a frame before the truck was enveloped, which would suggest it wasn't a split-frame issue either...

There was quite a breeze coming from the right so it's possible there was a symmetrical blast centred on the truck which threw those burning sparks in all directions but we mainly see the ones the wind blows back across the bridge.

It's easier to stop and drag the same videos on twitter and I haven't seen one where you can still see the truck in any frame that shows the flash.

lpm wrote: Sun Oct 09, 2022 6:38 pm Impossible to tell what happened to the girders beneath.

Come to think of it, how do experts determine whether the structure is unsound? How can you check what's happened inside concrete?

You can possibly drill test holes, or ultrasound the concrete (or lower frequencies).

dyqik wrote: Sun Oct 09, 2022 11:01 pm

lpm wrote: Sun Oct 09, 2022 6:38 pm Impossible to tell what happened to the girders beneath.

Come to think of it, how do experts determine whether the structure is unsound? How can you check what's happened inside concrete?

You can possibly drill test holes, or ultrasound the concrete (or lower frequencies).

Not anything I know about, but googling also suggests a form of radar and some other electromagnetic techniques.

Looks like train traffic has resumed on the bridge.

As state officials and the official news media strove to present the situation as under control, railroad service would operate normally, said Mr. Aksyonov, who has been head of the administration on the disputed peninsula since Russia seized it from Ukraine in 2014.

Eighteen trains carrying a total of around 6,000 passengers had crossed the bridge since traffic resumed overnight, the state-run Russian news outlet RIA Novosti reported, quoting the railroad service.

The Crimean authorities were still working on re-establishing stable transportation links, including ferries, between the peninsula and Russia, Mr. Aksyonov said on his Telegram channel.

https://dnyuz.com/2022/10/09/trains-and ... l-traffic/

bolo wrote: Sun Oct 09, 2022 11:23 pm

dyqik wrote: Sun Oct 09, 2022 11:01 pm

lpm wrote: Sun Oct 09, 2022 6:38 pm Impossible to tell what happened to the girders beneath.

Come to think of it, how do experts determine whether the structure is unsound? How can you check what's happened inside concrete?

You can possibly drill test holes, or ultrasound the concrete (or lower frequencies).

Not anything I know about, but googling also suggests a form of radar and some other electromagnetic techniques.

Ground penetrating radar (GPR) is done at close range and gives a fuzzy but helpful view of the rebar etc, it’ll let you do some calcs but nothing too precise. Drilled cores are useful to find out the depth of cracks etc. This is the standard stuff, I’m not a structural engineer but I’d imagine a whole series of weight bearing tests could be set up perhaps. Drones and vehicle mounted scanners can give detailed 3D info looking for cracks too.

plodder wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 7:54 am

bolo wrote: Sun Oct 09, 2022 11:23 pm

dyqik wrote: Sun Oct 09, 2022 11:01 pm

You can possibly drill test holes, or ultrasound the concrete (or lower frequencies).

Not anything I know about, but googling also suggests a form of radar and some other electromagnetic techniques.

Ground penetrating radar (GPR) is done at close range and gives a fuzzy but helpful view of the rebar etc, it’ll let you do some calcs but nothing too precise. Drilled cores are useful to find out the depth of cracks etc. This is the standard stuff, I’m not a structural engineer but I’d imagine a whole series of weight bearing tests could be set up perhaps. Drones and vehicle mounted scanners can give detailed 3D info looking for cracks too.

You can get some idea what a bridge is doing just by watching how it deflects under load. If that's changed since the attack, that means it's damaged.

EACLucifer wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 8:00 am

plodder wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 7:54 am

bolo wrote: Sun Oct 09, 2022 11:23 pm
Not anything I know about, but googling also suggests a form of radar and some other electromagnetic techniques.

Ground penetrating radar (GPR) is done at close range and gives a fuzzy but helpful view of the rebar etc, it’ll let you do some calcs but nothing too precise. Drilled cores are useful to find out the depth of cracks etc. This is the standard stuff, I’m not a structural engineer but I’d imagine a whole series of weight bearing tests could be set up perhaps. Drones and vehicle mounted scanners can give detailed 3D info looking for cracks too.

You can get some idea what a bridge is doing just by watching how it deflects under load. If that's changed since the attack, that means it's damaged.

That does require the previous monitoring tests to have not been fictional, which is not a given

You could just run trains over it until it collapses, this would be definitive.

EACLucifer wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 8:00 am You can get some idea what a bridge is doing just by watching how it deflects under load. If that's changed since the attack, that means it's damaged.

I think I mentioned weight bearing tests but yeah.

BBC reporting 75 long range missiles fired by Russia at Ukrainian cities.

Any idea what there were? Wondering how many missiles the Russians are understood to have and the range / accuracies they possess.

A couple of things.. I worked with a chap many years ago who was trying to develop/prove a technique (pretty sure it was sound-based rather than x-ray or similar) to identify microfractures in concrete. When I was last there, he could clearly "see" faults running through concrete and was trying to work out what the impact of what he could detect would be on the structural integrity of the concrete (and step up his funding by a couple of orders of magnitude so he could do some "proper" stress testing - lab-sized blocks apparently don't behave in the same way). I learned a fuckton about the properties of concrete in those weeks, haven't quite forgotten all of it But I would expect that by now there is a working means of checking your concrete's integrity without waiting for it to fall down.

The other one is a question: Herainestold: are you by any chance the sockpuppet of one of the other forum members for expository purposes?

TopBadger wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 9:08 am BBC reporting 75 long range missiles fired by Russia at Ukrainian cities.

Any idea what there were? Wondering how many missiles the Russians are understood to have and the range / accuracies they possess.

Claims that they were Kalibr missiles - the most accurate cruise missile in Russia's inventory, and thus quite valuable. Used to attack museums, the National University, parks and the Bridge of Glass (a pedestrian bridge).

As an aside, I see that the Russian trolls are out on Twitter.

jimbob wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 9:17 am Claims that they were Kalibr missiles - the most accurate cruise missile in Russia's inventory, and thus quite valuable. Used to attack museums, the National University, parks and the Bridge of Glass (a pedestrian bridge).

So hopefully they don't have that many of them... and this attack isn't going to be the new normal.

TopBadger wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 9:32 am

jimbob wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 9:17 am Claims that they were Kalibr missiles - the most accurate cruise missile in Russia's inventory, and thus quite valuable. Used to attack museums, the National University, parks and the Bridge of Glass (a pedestrian bridge).

So hopefully they don't have that many of them... and this attack isn't going to be the new normal.

I think you're right.

Remember that I have no expertise, but there's a reason why they have been using Iranian propeller drones for long range attacks.

It's a costly statement of anger to placate Putin.

In separate developments, Moldova has summoned the Russian ambassador after some of the missiles crossed Moldovan airspace, according to https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/10-octobe ... ambassador

jimbob wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 9:53 am

TopBadger wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 9:32 am

jimbob wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 9:17 am Claims that they were Kalibr missiles - the most accurate cruise missile in Russia's inventory, and thus quite valuable. Used to attack museums, the National University, parks and the Bridge of Glass (a pedestrian bridge).

So hopefully they don't have that many of them... and this attack isn't going to be the new normal.

I think you're right.

Remember that I have no expertise, but there's a reason why they have been using Iranian propeller drones for long range attacks.

It's a costly statement of anger to placate Putin.

Could be Surovikin trying to impress the boss.

For those wondering about the moral character of Sergei Vladimirovich Surovikin, he commanded Russian forces for a period in Syria.

In separate developments, Moldova has summoned the Russian ambassador after some of the missiles crossed Moldovan airspace, according to https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/10-octobe ... ambassador

They are used to using their presence in occupied Transnistria to threaten the Moldovans. It might be worth putting some pressure on that garrison. They would be completely helpless in any serious conflict, and that means there is only so much they can do in response.

Deleted as it flagged the formatting

jimbob wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 10:23 am

EACLucifer wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 10:09 am

jimbob wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 9:53 am

I think you're right.

Remember that I have no expertise, but there's a reason why they have been using Iranian propeller drones for long range attacks.

It's a costly statement of anger to placate Putin.

Could be Surovikin trying to impress the boss.

For those wondering about the moral character of Sergei Vladimirovich Surovikin, he commanded Russian forces for a period in Syria.



They are used to using their presence in occupied Transnistria to threaten the Moldovans. It might be worth putting some pressure on that garrison. They would be completely helpless in any serious conflict, and that means there is only so much they can do in response.

Fixed your reply quote tags

And edited.

Re: Propeller powered Iranian missiles, aka Shaitanmopeds. A number of these were used in today's terror bombings, launched from Belarus.

What sort of numbers are we talking about? Today Putin used 100 out of 1,000? Out of 10,000?

Resupply is finite, thanks to sanctions. Iran can't be able to build in numbers either.

There's more rumblings about the possibility of Belarus getting directly involved.

Two things need to be made very clear right now, in advance of any such move.

Firstly, the west will have no objections to Western weapons of all sorts being used against legitimate military targets on Belarusian territory.

Secondly, there will be no objections to Ukraine responding by entering Belarusian territory, and coordinating with Anti-Lukashenko Belarusians. The Kastous Kalinouski regiment and other Belarusian exiles will encouraged to go home with all the weapons they can carry, at which point, it is unlikely that Lukashenko's forces will be able to stand in the face of their magnificent war moustaches.

EACLucifer wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 10:58 am There's more rumblings about the possibility of Belarus getting directly involved.

Two things need to be made very clear right now, in advance of any such move.

Firstly, the west will have no objections to Western weapons of all sorts being used against legitimate military targets on Belarusian territory.

Secondly, there will be no objections to Ukraine responding by entering Belarusian territory, and coordinating with Anti-Lukashenko Belarusians. The Kastous Kalinouski regiment and other Belarusian exiles will encouraged to go home with all the weapons they can carry, at which point, it is unlikely that Lukashenko's forces will be able to stand in the face of their magnificent war moustaches.

Yup, Lukashenko is in a precarious position. He probably needs his troops to suppress revolution. It's come pretty close to that already.

Also if he didn't join the invasion in, say May, what is in it for him now his sponsor is in a far worse position?

jimbob wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 11:03 am

EACLucifer wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 10:58 am There's more rumblings about the possibility of Belarus getting directly involved.

Two things need to be made very clear right now, in advance of any such move.

Firstly, the west will have no objections to Western weapons of all sorts being used against legitimate military targets on Belarusian territory.

Secondly, there will be no objections to Ukraine responding by entering Belarusian territory, and coordinating with Anti-Lukashenko Belarusians. The Kastous Kalinouski regiment and other Belarusian exiles will encouraged to go home with all the weapons they can carry, at which point, it is unlikely that Lukashenko's forces will be able to stand in the face of their magnificent war moustaches.

Yup, Lukashenko is in a precarious position. He probably needs his troops to suppress revolution. It's come pretty close to that already.

Also if he didn't join the invasion in, say May, what is in it for him now his sponsor is in a far worse position?

I don't think he will. But it will be easier to make the consequences clear in advance of such a move, than to try and get away with imposing them after it.

It could be Putin has a hold on him. Unlikely, but we can't rule it out.

EACLucifer wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 11:51 am

jimbob wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 11:03 am

EACLucifer wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 10:58 am There's more rumblings about the possibility of Belarus getting directly involved.

Two things need to be made very clear right now, in advance of any such move.

Firstly, the west will have no objections to Western weapons of all sorts being used against legitimate military targets on Belarusian territory.

Secondly, there will be no objections to Ukraine responding by entering Belarusian territory, and coordinating with Anti-Lukashenko Belarusians. The Kastous Kalinouski regiment and other Belarusian exiles will encouraged to go home with all the weapons they can carry, at which point, it is unlikely that Lukashenko's forces will be able to stand in the face of their magnificent war moustaches.

Yup, Lukashenko is in a precarious position. He probably needs his troops to suppress revolution. It's come pretty close to that already.

Also if he didn't join the invasion in, say May, what is in it for him now his sponsor is in a far worse position?

I don't think he will. But it will be easier to make the consequences clear in advance of such a move, than to try and get away with imposing them after it.

It could be Putin has a hold on him. Unlikely, but we can't rule it out.

Well Putin *does* have a hold on him, as Putin is propping up his regime

Cruise missile shootdown with an Igla MANPADS

There's also autocannon firing, and the Igla shown on camera isn't the only missile launched. Going by the sound, a Stinger or another Igla, not a Starstreak. Judging by the smoke in the sky, they downed two cruise missiles.

The problem is that to set up a screen on MANPADS is functionally impossible. They have a range of just 5km, which means at a theoretical minimum you'd need operators along every 10km of border, but in practise, they take time to lock on, so a missile that just passed within 5km wouldn't interceptable, so in reality, more like every seven or eight kilometres.

ETA: The gun that's firing sounds an awful lot like a Gepard. Note that gunshots basically never record accurately on the vast majority of microphones, so it's rate of fire that matters. This would suggest they are using the Gepard/MANPADS combination where the Gepard uses its tracking radar to warn MANPADS operators, as Gepards have rather more range with their tracking radars than their twin autocannon.

I love the whoops they give when they bring it down.

lpm wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 10:53 am What sort of numbers are we talking about? Today Putin used 100 out of 1,000? Out of 10,000?

Resupply is finite, thanks to sanctions. Iran can't be able to build in numbers either.

In terms of resupply - that was just under half a billion dollars worth of missiles Russia launched.