Scrutable

TimW wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:37 pm

philbo wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:53 pm PR is in the Reform UK manifesto... I mean "contract" (as is HoL reform to an elected second chamber)

If it's a contract does that mean we can sue them?

lpm wrote: Sat Jul 06, 2024 9:14 am To win so consistently they both must have been very kind and decent.

Trinucleus wrote: Sat Jul 06, 2024 10:15 am

lpm wrote: Sat Jul 06, 2024 9:14 am To win so consistently they both must have been very kind and decent.

No NO NO

Gfamily wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 2:30 pm

TimW wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:31 am He'll moan on and on and on about how the system's corrupt and unfair to (his) voters.
Then when his situation changes he'll moan on and on and on about something else.

I fully expect that what he won't do is the donkey work of an MP in helping to sort out problems for his constituents.

JQH wrote: Sat Jul 06, 2024 3:42 pm

Gfamily wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 2:30 pm

TimW wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:31 am He'll moan on and on and on about how the system's corrupt and unfair to (his) voters.
Then when his situation changes he'll moan on and on and on about something else.

I fully expect that what he won't do is the donkey work of an MP in helping to sort out problems for his constituents.

Or indeed do any committee work. He'll do the same as he did as an MEP - just grandstand and shout spite in the Chamber.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Sat Jul 06, 2024 7:56 am Like, the news is just showing stuff about non-politics. Wtf?

lpm wrote: Sat Jul 06, 2024 8:34 am

lpm wrote: Thu Jul 04, 2024 1:19 pm It's brilliant! I love it. This one is even better!

https://x.com/Piers_Corbyn/status/1808463384695750940

The custard pies on the clowns! The train announcement!

Piers got 403 votes. Wasn't enough to win. But he seemed to have a lovely time, which is the main thing.

Opti wrote: Sat Jul 06, 2024 10:19 am

Trinucleus wrote: Sat Jul 06, 2024 10:15 am

lpm wrote: Sat Jul 06, 2024 9:14 am To win so consistently they both must have been very kind and decent.

No NO NO

You mean Nye, Nye, NYE!!

Sciolus wrote: Sat Jul 06, 2024 5:45 pm Oh look, the Daily Hate has just discovered that you can get a massive landslide from a minority of votes. Who knew? I haven't read their coverage, obviously, but I'm sure they're extremely angry about the under-representation of the Green parties.

Stranger Mouse wrote: Sat Jul 06, 2024 6:37 pm

Sciolus wrote: Sat Jul 06, 2024 5:45 pm Oh look, the Daily Hate has just discovered that you can get a massive landslide from a minority of votes. Who knew? I haven't read their coverage, obviously, but I'm sure they're extremely angry about the under-representation of the Green parties.

I have a nasty vicious lying family member who unfortunately hasn’t died recently. They are suddenly a new and enthusiastic supporter of PR now the Conservatives have lost. Has anyone got some form of comparison showing what would happen on PR on this election but also the last one? I want to needle them about how much they wanted Corbyn to get more seats last time (because obviously they don’t just want PR when it would help their side win).

monkey wrote: Sat Jul 06, 2024 8:05 pm

Stranger Mouse wrote: Sat Jul 06, 2024 6:37 pm

Sciolus wrote: Sat Jul 06, 2024 5:45 pm Oh look, the Daily Hate has just discovered that you can get a massive landslide from a minority of votes. Who knew? I haven't read their coverage, obviously, but I'm sure they're extremely angry about the under-representation of the Green parties.

I have a nasty vicious lying family member who unfortunately hasn’t died recently. They are suddenly a new and enthusiastic supporter of PR now the Conservatives have lost. Has anyone got some form of comparison showing what would happen on PR on this election but also the last one? I want to needle them about how much they wanted Corbyn to get more seats last time (because obviously they don’t just want PR when it would help their side win).

It'll be a bad comparison, because many people would vote differently under different systems. But I think yougov did some polling where they asked who you vote for if tactical voting wasn't a thing though. Might give you some idea for pure PR. I'll have a look to see if I can find it.

(I get annoyed when people favour a voting system only when it favours their preferred outcome. Doesn't make me think they have democracy at heart.)

Blackcountryboy wrote: Sat Jul 06, 2024 4:28 pm

Opti wrote: Sat Jul 06, 2024 10:19 am

Trinucleus wrote: Sat Jul 06, 2024 10:15 am

No NO NO

You mean Nye, Nye, NYE!!

Never, Never, Never.

Blackcountryboy wrote: Sat Jul 06, 2024 8:59 am Ian Paisley lost his seat in Antrim; 54 years since his father won it in 1970 and had been in the family until Thursday.

TopBadger wrote: Mon Jul 08, 2024 8:23 am Is there a sweepstake up yet on how quickly Farage falls out with the speaker and gets booted from the chamber?

Or is it that much of a surefire certainty within the next two weeks that it's not worth having one?

jimbob wrote: Mon Jul 08, 2024 11:25 am Some Reform candidates have zero social media presence and didn't turn up in person. And one used what seems like a fake photo. Which is odd given that they were presumably activists before becoming candidates.

One theory used to explain the miss is that there was a late swing away from Labour just before polling day.

Twenty-two per cent of voters made up their minds on the day, according to polling conducted after the election by Lord Michael Ashcroft. Voters who opted for the Greens were more likely than others to have decided late, with 31 per cent of them making up their minds on polling day.

“Vote intention polls are potentially where the country was the day before the election, but there was a late-stage swing to the Greens and independents from Labour,” said Callum Hunter, data scientist at JL Partners. “There’s only so much we can do to counteract that, because we’re only taking a snapshot,” he added.

“Our modelled vote share was within 1 point for the Conservatives, but it was out for Labour and Green,” said Hunter. “If you take into account that on-the-day-surge, then we would have gotten it almost bang on.”

In general, the polls were more accurate for other parties, with the result for the Conservatives, Reform, Greens and Liberal Democrats all within 3 percentage points of the polling average.

[...]

Turnout fell to 59.9 per cent nationally, down from 67.3 per cent at the last election, but turnout fell more than the average in safe Labour areas.

In seats that Labour won at the last election, turnout fell 9.6 percentage points, compared with 6.5 percentage points in other seats.

If turnout fell evenly everywhere, calculations by the Financial Times indicate that Labour’s vote share would have been slightly higher, at 35.1 per cent.

“[Turnout] is an area where pollsters are really variable. Some of them do it on the stated likelihood, others use an empirical model relating measurement to action, while others preset what the voter population is going to look like based on historical data”, said Joel Williams of Verian.

[...]

Another explanation is that the samples used were not representative of the wider electorate. Most pollsters use online volunteer panels, who are paid small sums of money to answer surveys, and then the sample is reweighted to reflect the national demographics.

Verian, the pollster that came closest to the final result, uses a different method called “random-probability sampling”, where they send out requests to a random list of addresses to build a panel of respondents, rather than letting people volunteer.

Verian’s final poll put Labour on 36 per cent, 1.3 points above their final result.

“It’s about finding people who aren’t particularly engaged in politics,” added Williams. “We did our absolute best to make sure our sample was good.”