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Re: Blyatskrieg
Posted: Mon Oct 10, 2022 2:54 pm
by Woodchopper
Back to the bridge. Some good points on what caused the explosion that I haven't seen elsewhere:
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/ ... zRWatn41_A
Re: Blyatskrieg
Posted: Mon Oct 10, 2022 3:40 pm
by Grumble
Seems to me, and I’ve not read all the commentary so this may have been mentioned elsewhere, that the target was the point on the bridge where it starts to inflect upwards because that will be harder to repair. The train is an incidental happy accident. I may have this exactly backward of course, and the happy accident is damaging the bridge at a point that’s hard to repair.
Re: Blyatskrieg
Posted: Mon Oct 10, 2022 5:39 pm
by dyqik
A thermite incendiary may also be more likely to damage the steel structure, as it burns hot enough to melt steel, and even if it doesn't melt it, the heat can greatly change the properties of the steel.
Re: Blyatskrieg
Posted: Mon Oct 10, 2022 5:50 pm
by EACLucifer
dyqik wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 5:39 pm
A thermite incendiary may also be more likely to damage the steel structure, as it burns hot enough to melt steel, and even if it doesn't melt it, the heat can greatly change the properties of the steel.
If, and only if it's able to be in contact with it, or near it for enough time to get it really hot. Thermite burns exceptionally hot, but it's sufficiently not dangerous to be near it that it was a standard classroom demonstration as least as recently as the early 2000s, at least if the teacher was competent enough to light it.
In general you mix metals into explosives to use up excess oxygen, if the other ingredients are oxygen donors, and to prolong the peak temperature, which is important for underwater explosives, hence it's use in Torpex.
Though I'm not a sapper, nor a mad bomber of any sort, the physics of an explosion make it very unlikely stirring thermite into an explosive will achieve much, as the blast scatters the ingredients to the point that the thermite fuel and oxidiser aren't necessarily in contact any more. If the glowing motes were pieces of thermite intended to have a secondary incendiary effect, then they would have stayed glowing a lot longer.
Re: Blyatskrieg
Posted: Mon Oct 10, 2022 6:43 pm
by Woodchopper
Re: Blyatskrieg
Posted: Mon Oct 10, 2022 6:52 pm
by lpm
Grumble wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 3:40 pm
Seems to me, and I’ve not read all the commentary so this may have been mentioned elsewhere, that the target was the point on the bridge where it starts to inflect upwards because that will be harder to repair. The train is an incidental happy accident. I may have this exactly backward of course, and the happy accident is damaging the bridge at a point that’s hard to repair.
I'm not sure the target point was the point it starts to inflect upwards. The camera view mislead a bit. It's instead almost exactly the middle of the bridge from island to central span.
Re: Blyatskrieg
Posted: Mon Oct 10, 2022 7:02 pm
by EACLucifer
lpm wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 6:52 pm
Grumble wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 3:40 pm
Seems to me, and I’ve not read all the commentary so this may have been mentioned elsewhere, that the target was the point on the bridge where it starts to inflect upwards because that will be harder to repair. The train is an incidental happy accident. I may have this exactly backward of course, and the happy accident is damaging the bridge at a point that’s hard to repair.
I'm not sure the target point was the point it starts to inflect upwards. The camera view mislead a bit. It's instead almost exactly the middle of the bridge from island to central span.
It's not where the damage is, but it might have been the target. Ie, it might have missed slightly. Bear in mind that for a ballistic missile, half the missiles landing within ten metres of the target is pretty accurate, and for a truck bomb, it's a matter of a time or location based fuse that might not be perfect, especially if it's location based and there's GPS jamming used to defend the bridge.
Re: Blyatskrieg
Posted: Mon Oct 10, 2022 7:05 pm
by EACLucifer
I hate to say it, but a decent work gang could get the whole lot replaced in a few days at most, and not much longer if the sleepers need redoing. It's a delay, sure, and perhaps enough of a delay to tip the scales enough to make a difference, but unless there's damage to the underlying structure that causes collapse, or necessitates strict speed/tonnage limits, the rail bridge will be back in action in the not too distant future.
Repairing the road bridge will be harder, but unfortunately due to its modular construction, it might not take that long.
That is, unless followup attacks can disrupt the works. That alone should be enough of a case to send ATACMS.
Re: Blyatskrieg
Posted: Mon Oct 10, 2022 7:28 pm
by lpm
...or strike south towards Berdyansk. It's 100 miles / 160 km from Ukraine's Sea of Azov coast to Ukraine's territory in the Kerch Strait.
Re: Blyatskrieg
Posted: Tue Oct 11, 2022 12:20 am
by Bird on a Fire
I'm no weapons expert, but I've played enough 007 Goldeneye on N64 to know that a few barrels of explosives makes a tasty target.
Surely the fact that a train full of flammable stuff was hit can't be a coincidence? Ukraine would just need a bit of intel from a disgruntled Russian, of which I expect there's plenty.
Re: Blyatskrieg
Posted: Tue Oct 11, 2022 12:44 am
by Martin Y
Bird on a Fire wrote: Tue Oct 11, 2022 12:20 am
I'm no weapons expert, but I've played enough 007 Goldeneye on N64 to know that a few barrels of explosives makes a tasty target.
Surely the fact that a train full of flammable stuff was hit can't be a coincidence? Ukraine would just need a bit of intel from a disgruntled Russian, of which I expect there's plenty.
Ukrainian spotters on Crimea could have seen the fuel train crossing but
assuming the unfortunate truck driver was unaware of his cargo, they had no control over exactly when the truck would cross the bridge. They could have had remote control of the bomb but it's not obvious how you could tell from a distance at night which truck was the right one, to take advantage of the opportunity presented by the train. Although it seems too good to be true, it may just have been a coincidence.
Re: Blyatskrieg
Posted: Tue Oct 11, 2022 12:45 am
by Martin_B
philbo wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 9:10 am
A couple of things.. I worked with a chap many years ago who was trying to develop/prove a technique (pretty sure it was sound-based rather than x-ray or similar) to identify microfractures in concrete. When I was last there, he could clearly "see" faults running through concrete and was trying to work out what the impact of what he could detect would be on the structural integrity of the concrete (and step up his funding by a couple of orders of magnitude so he could do some "proper" stress testing - lab-sized blocks apparently don't behave in the same way). I learned a fuckton about the properties of concrete in those weeks, haven't quite forgotten all of it
But I would expect that by now there is a working means of checking your concrete's integrity without waiting for it to fall down.
Yes, they can do that for concrete these days, and it's a more efficient means of checking for cracks and defects than a visual inspection. It's a technique which I think was borrowed from checking the condition of steel (used for railway tracks and train wheels/axles) as any cracks change the way the sound moves through the material. It gets used by the industries up north (mining, oil and gas) when cyclones come through to determine the extent of damage prior to restarting operations.
Re: Blyatskrieg
Posted: Tue Oct 11, 2022 1:10 am
by Bird on a Fire
Martin Y wrote: Tue Oct 11, 2022 12:44 am
Bird on a Fire wrote: Tue Oct 11, 2022 12:20 am
I'm no weapons expert, but I've played enough 007 Goldeneye on N64 to know that a few barrels of explosives makes a tasty target.
Surely the fact that a train full of flammable stuff was hit can't be a coincidence? Ukraine would just need a bit of intel from a disgruntled Russian, of which I expect there's plenty.
Ukrainian spotters on Crimea could have seen the fuel train crossing but
assuming the unfortunate truck driver was unaware of his cargo, they had no control over exactly when the truck would cross the bridge. They could have had remote control of the bomb but it's not obvious how you could tell from a distance at night which truck was the right one, to take advantage of the opportunity presented by the train. Although it seems too good to be true, it may just have been a coincidence.
Yeah it would be way easier with a big missile than a lorry. If lorry, you'd want the driver in on it.
If you have just bombed a random lorry and its hapless driver, I guess you're stuck with dead reckoning from whatever the speed limit is for lorries, assuming low traffic. Track it with GPS.
But you'd really want to hit that train. They must have known flammable trains cross there. And whatever the mechanism this was a rare case: the Ukrainians aren't using lorry bombs all over the shop.
Maybe it was a lone wolf?
Re: Blyatskrieg
Posted: Tue Oct 11, 2022 8:36 am
by TopBadger
EACLucifer wrote: Mon Oct 10, 2022 7:05 pm
...unless followup attacks can disrupt the works. That alone should be enough of a case to send ATACMS.
They should absolutely be trying this - a bit like Snake Island - classic denial operation.
Indeed - if they can push south to Tokmak / Chernihivka then it looks like that would only leave one major road to resupply Kherson and Melitopol and the Russians will be in for a long hard winter with minimal supplies.
Re: Blyatskrieg
Posted: Tue Oct 11, 2022 6:32 pm
by EACLucifer
Mobilised eleven days ago, they're in Svatove after a day's training
Svatove's more or less on the frontline now. The Ukrainians are closing in. The town's in a valley at the foot of an escarpment. The Ukrainians, if they don't bypass Svatove, will crest that escarpment and gain fire control over the entire town. These lads won't stand a f.cking chance. I do feel sorry for them, but they'd have had better odds if they'd refused to go. Go and invade or go to jail is still a choice.
Re: Blyatskrieg
Posted: Tue Oct 11, 2022 7:52 pm
by EACLucifer
Antonivsky bridge is still standing, but distinctly unhappy
There's more damage on the edge than on
a previous picture taken on the 24th of September.
It does demonstrate how hard it is to take out a bridge with a top-down strike with anything but a specialised munition. M31s just aren't up to the job of taking out large bridges. NATO forces would do it with a Paveway or JDAM if they could fly over it - which NATO forces generally can - or certain cruise missiles otherwise.
It's time to provide Ukraine with a proper demolition munition. ATACMS, or a new warhead for GMLRS.
Of course, it wouldn't take much more of an advance in northern Kherson for that to become moot, as 2S7 Pions ought to be able to wreck it if they can get in range.
Re: Blyatskrieg
Posted: Wed Oct 12, 2022 12:36 am
by Martin_B
I'm not sure if there's more damage on the more recent photo than on the one from 24th September. It looks more like a piece of broken bridge has fallen away (or been moved away) enlarging the massive gap, but the damage looks the same.
The other photo (from 13th September) is of the other side of the bridge, so both sides of the bridge look heavily damaged.
Re: Blyatskrieg
Posted: Wed Oct 12, 2022 6:14 am
by TopBadger
Re: Blyatskrieg
Posted: Wed Oct 12, 2022 9:33 am
by EACLucifer
Martin_B wrote: Wed Oct 12, 2022 12:36 am
I'm not sure if there's more damage on the more recent photo than on the one from 24th September. It looks more like a piece of broken bridge has fallen away (or been moved away) enlarging the massive gap
That's what I meant by more damage. I wasn't indicating significantly more damage, rather that the additional material falling away means that the photo was more recent than one where that material was still present.
That said, look at the misalignment between the two spans. I think it's worsening, however, it could be just the bit between the pier and the chunk taken out of the side is slumping on its own.
Re: Blyatskrieg
Posted: Wed Oct 12, 2022 10:03 am
by jimbob
EACLucifer wrote: Wed Oct 12, 2022 9:33 am
Martin_B wrote: Wed Oct 12, 2022 12:36 am
I'm not sure if there's more damage on the more recent photo than on the one from 24th September. It looks more like a piece of broken bridge has fallen away (or been moved away) enlarging the massive gap
That's what I meant by more damage. I wasn't indicating significantly more damage, rather that the additional material falling away means that the photo was more recent than one where that material was still present.
That said, look at the misalignment between the two spans. I think it's
worsening improving*, however, it could be just the bit between the pier and the chunk taken out of the side is slumping on its own.
*corrected it from my POV
Also - you do seem to be having problems with quotes in this thread - setting me up to completely mess them up myself now...
Re: Blyatskrieg
Posted: Wed Oct 12, 2022 10:23 am
by EACLucifer
jimbob wrote: Wed Oct 12, 2022 10:03 am
EACLucifer wrote: Wed Oct 12, 2022 9:33 am
Martin_B wrote: Wed Oct 12, 2022 12:36 am
I'm not sure if there's more damage on the more recent photo than on the one from 24th September. It looks more like a piece of broken bridge has fallen away (or been moved away) enlarging the massive gap
That's what I meant by more damage. I wasn't indicating significantly more damage, rather that the additional material falling away means that the photo was more recent than one where that material was still present.
That said, look at the misalignment between the two spans. I think it's
worsening improving*, however, it could be just the bit between the pier and the chunk taken out of the side is slumping on its own.
*corrected it from my POV
Also - you do seem to be having problems with quotes in this thread - setting me up to completely mess them up myself now...
Missed the / again, so opened quote instead of closing it. It's because I'm struggling to get my brain going today.
Re: Blyatskrieg
Posted: Wed Oct 12, 2022 7:48 pm
by EACLucifer
Another Shaitanmoped* shootdown. The interesting thing here is the audio. That's not the sound a Shaitanmoped makes. That's a jet, one presumes a Ukrainian fighter jet shooting down the drone.
*
Shahed-136
Re: Blyatskrieg
Posted: Wed Oct 12, 2022 7:59 pm
by Woodchopper
Re: Blyatskrieg
Posted: Wed Oct 12, 2022 8:21 pm
by EACLucifer
This tells you everything you need to know about the condition of their T-72 reserves. Even if this is a deep modernisation, why would you use the T-62 hull? It's all-steel armour, or a bit of ceramic for later models, but it's still only really designed to resist guns like the American 90mm. Hell, in Iraq, these things were knocked out by autocannon.
It's also cramped, can't use the ammunition intended for the 125mm guns, including gun-launched ATGMs, and it isn't exactly light on its feet either, with the same engine as the stock T-55.
And Russian manpower shortages won't appreciate the 4-man crew.
It is possible to modernise tanks of that vintage into useful fighting vehicles, like the M-55s mentioned somewhere upthread, but it isn't easy, and if you wanted to make a decent tank, and had viable T-72 or T-80 hulls to play with, you'd use those.
Re: Blyatskrieg
Posted: Wed Oct 12, 2022 10:36 pm
by Imrael
Usual twitter noise but possibly a push towards Svartove kicking off. Or maybe a Russian counter-attack. Or maybe none of the above. Probably find out more later.