Scrutable

Doesn't seem worth unskewing betting markets. It is nothing but people guessing.

Cheer yourself up with the latest Washington Post polls:

PA: +2
WI: +3
MI: +2
GA: +4
NV: 0
AZ: -3
NC: -3

I know everyone is determined to be optimistic even at this late stage, but this is just confirmation of what we all know: America is fully f.cking insane.

They're going to elect Trump. Again. If I'm wrong, I'll be a happy man, but I think Trump will get re-elected.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Mon Oct 21, 2024 12:42 pm I know everyone is determined to be optimistic even at this late stage, but this is just confirmation of what we all know: America is fully f.cking insane.

I wouldn't go that far.

All the results lpm posted are within the margin or error. Its too close to call and in the electoral college we could be looking at a large or a wafer thin majority for either candidate.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Mon Oct 21, 2024 12:42 pm
They're going to elect Trump. Again. If I'm wrong, I'll be a happy man, but I think Trump will get re-elected.

Corrupt right wing populists have won elections across the western world. Berlusconi was probably the modern blueprint. We can comfort ourselves with the experience that they tend not to stay in power for very long (Hungarians excepted) and tend to be so incompetent and lazy that they aren't capable of doing most of what they say they want to do (Hungarians excepted). Which isn't to argue that Trump's second term wouldn't be a disaster, but he might not be catastrophic.

Woodchopper wrote: Mon Oct 21, 2024 1:50 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Mon Oct 21, 2024 12:42 pm I know everyone is determined to be optimistic even at this late stage, but this is just confirmation of what we all know: America is fully f.cking insane.

I wouldn't go that far.

All the results lpm posted are within the margin or error. Its too close to call and in the electoral college we could be looking at a large or a wafer thin majority for either candidate.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Mon Oct 21, 2024 12:42 pm
They're going to elect Trump. Again. If I'm wrong, I'll be a happy man, but I think Trump will get re-elected.

Corrupt right wing populists have won elections across the western world. Berlusconi was probably the modern blueprint. We can comfort ourselves with the experience that they tend not to stay in power for very long (Hungarians excepted) and tend to be so incompetent and lazy that they aren't capable of doing most of what they say they want to do (Hungarians excepted). Which isn't to argue that Trump's second term wouldn't be a disaster, but he might not be catastrophic.

They have published what they want to do. It’ll be pretty f.cking grim.

TimW wrote: Mon Oct 21, 2024 11:23 am

Martin_B wrote: Mon Oct 21, 2024 12:05 am

Gfamily wrote: Sun Oct 20, 2024 5:01 pm
Interesting if it raises the possibility of a 5 year prison sentence for the instigator

It depends on the wording of the petition, which isn't mentioned in the BBC article, but can't Democrat voters sign the petition as well? How are they going to check that people who sign the petition and potentially win $1 million then vote for the orange tiny-handed wannabe dictator?

The article says: "In the US, it is illegal to provide payments to get people to vote - not only for a certain candidate, but to simply cast a ballot." And the linked blog has more detail - https://electionlawblog.org/?p=146397

And also to register to vote. Since the payments are only available to registered voters, and registration is open, then they amount to a payment to register to vote.

lpm wrote: Mon Oct 21, 2024 11:47 am Doesn't seem worth unskewing betting markets. It is nothing but people guessing.

Cheer yourself up with the latest Washington Post polls:

PA: +2
WI: +3
MI: +2
GA: +4
NV: 0
AZ: -3
NC: -3

This is consistent with polling averages, once you remove the known bad faith pollsters that Nate Silver and 538 both include.

There is an ongoing operation (since 2020) to release fake and GOP biased polls in order to drive the belief that elections are being stolen: https://bad-faith-times.ghost.io/you-ar ... pollsters/

We're left with:

Polls are right: narrow Harris win

Polls underestimate Trump, as in 2016 and 2020: Trump win

Polls underestimate Democrats, as in 2022: Harris win

Which basically means not worth looking too much at polls.

lpm wrote: Tue Oct 22, 2024 4:21 pm We're left with:

Polls are right: narrow Harris win

Polls underestimate Trump, as in 2016 and 2020: Trump win

Polls underestimate Democrats, as in 2022: Harris win

Which basically means not worth looking too much at polls.

And it's worth noting that pollsters made changes to adapt to the observed errors after 2016, and then again after 2020 and 2022. But at the same time, their response rates have plummeted, meaning new errors are likely.

So there are two more options:
Polls underestimate Trump in a completely different way to 2016 and 2020
Polls underestimate Harris in a completely different way to 2022.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance when the underlying environment is changing that rapidly.

lpm wrote: Mon Oct 21, 2024 11:47 am Doesn't seem worth unskewing betting markets. It is nothing but people guessing.

Cheer yourself up with the latest Washington Post polls:

PA: +2
WI: +3
MI: +2
GA: +4
NV: 0
AZ: -3
NC: -3

It may be too obvious even to mention, but am I right to assume that + here means + for Harris?

lpm wrote: Tue Oct 22, 2024 4:21 pm We're left with:

Polls are right: narrow Harris win

Polls underestimate Trump, as in 2016 and 2020: Trump win

Polls underestimate Democrats, as in 2022: Harris win

Which basically means not worth looking too much at polls.

The polls I see have stayed pretty much the same for months: Harris has a slight overall lead in terms of national voting preferences (by 1 or 2 percent). The margins are typically smaller than the typical polling errors, so it's in the noise. Whether or not there are subtle effects that under or overestimate voting intentions for a particular candidate probably matters very little, because it's translating voting intentions into electoral college votes and the actual result that's important. A shift of 1 or 2% either way at national levels doesn't affect the overall chances of either candidate winning very much, since a few thousand votes in a handful of swing states could easily nudge the result one way or the other.

If there are polls predicting a "narrow Harris win" I'm doubtful of the basis they make this prediction. Are they saying it's *likely* that Harris will win, given a modest margin over Trump in national polls? How likely?

The chances of either candidate winning the presidency seem very close to 50-50, and the local weather probably has as much chance of influencing the final outcome as a small shift in national voting intention. It's not a good situation.

"skipping like a dipshit" - please, more of this Tim.

https://x.com/Acyn/status/1848811523394965628

hakwright wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 11:46 am

lpm wrote: Tue Oct 22, 2024 4:21 pm We're left with:

Polls are right: narrow Harris win

Polls underestimate Trump, as in 2016 and 2020: Trump win

Polls underestimate Democrats, as in 2022: Harris win

Which basically means not worth looking too much at polls.

The polls I see have stayed pretty much the same for months: Harris has a slight overall lead in terms of national voting preferences (by 1 or 2 percent). The margins are typically smaller than the typical polling errors, so it's in the noise. Whether or not there are subtle effects that under or overestimate voting intentions for a particular candidate probably matters very little, because it's translating voting intentions into electoral college votes and the actual result that's important. A shift of 1 or 2% either way at national levels doesn't affect the overall chances of either candidate winning very much, since a few thousand votes in a handful of swing states could easily nudge the result one way or the other.

If there are polls predicting a "narrow Harris win" I'm doubtful of the basis they make this prediction. Are they saying it's *likely* that Harris will win, given a modest margin over Trump in national polls? How likely?

The chances of either candidate winning the presidency seem very close to 50-50, and the local weather probably has as much chance of influencing the final outcome as a small shift in national voting intention. It's not a good situation.

I agree. It appears that the electorate has mostly made up their minds already, and they are highly polarised.

Support for Trump has been remarkably stable throughout 2024. There's been a bit of movement, but in terms of the averages he's scored around 46-47% since the beginning of the year. The electorate hasn't changed its mind about Trump during the campaign. The people who supported him in January haven't seen a good reason to change their minds. That proportion might be enough for victory in the electoral college.

What has changed is the willingness of voters to say they support the Democrat candidate. Biden was losing support to third candidates (just a few percent, but vital in a close election) and to people who stated that they were unlikely to vote. Harris picked up about 5 percentage points from them and now she's running a couple of points ahead of Trump. But she hasn't persuaded significant numbers to switch their support from Trump to her. I also doubt that during the next few weeks she'll persuade significant numbers to switch from non-voting to voting for her.

They're both within the margin or error at a national level, we don't know what systematic biases there may be in the 2024 polls, and in any case electoral college may come down to a minute percentage of the national vote in PA and a few other swing states.

Its too close to call at this stage.

I see he has a new ident.
Worked for Jim

I suspect the Trump campaign might have f.cked up with Latino, and specifically Puerto Rican, voters.

headshot wrote: Tue Oct 29, 2024 12:00 pm I suspect the Trump campaign might have f.cked up with Latino, and specifically Puerto Rican, voters.

But they're all illegal immigrants and therefore can't vote anyway... right?

Trumpian Republican politics seems to be based on hatred... numerous Latino's will vote for Trump not because he hates them, but because he also hates some other group more than their group, so that the voter can convince themselves they're safe... but that other group is really going to get it and good riddance.

It's one of the most bizarre thought processes I've witnessed. Millions of Turkeys, all voting for Christmas, because its those other Turkeys that will get a basting.

And I'm sure one Trump surrogate's attack on a Muslim reporter on CNN last night (which led to the surrogate being removed from the show), and today a different Trump surrogate calling for women to be banned from voting, and Elon Musk calling for the collapse of the US economy today, are all helping him.

It is a sick country. Unlikely to recover, I suspect, regardless of what happens next week.

I find myself thinking about what Carl Sagan said about the danger of having most of the world’s knowledge being out of reach of most of the people more and more.

Brightonian wrote: Mon Oct 21, 2024 11:37 am

Brightonian wrote: Fri Oct 18, 2024 9:41 pm Bookies have Trump as favourite. At Paddy Power, Trump is (right now) 8/13 with Harris 5/4. Similar odds at Ladbrokes (8/13 and 13/10). Are people just hedging their bets?

Trump's odds shortening slightly, Harris's lengthening: Paddy Power now has Trump 4/7, Harris 6/4.

lpm wrote: Fri Oct 18, 2024 9:45 pm Allegedly there were some big bets placed to make Trumo appear favourite. It's not necessarily a free market of thousands of $10 players.

Large bets of unknown origin on something called Polymarket recently: Reuters.

Trump's odds shortening further - Polymarket has 67% (Paddy Power has 2 to 1 on).

Talking about Polymarket, it's one French "whale" who put the huge bets on: https://fortune.com/2024/10/26/trump-el ... ns-crypto/

lpm wrote: Tue Oct 29, 2024 7:17 pm It is a sick country. Unlikely to recover, I suspect, regardless of what happens next week.

It'll recover eventually, just depends how much of the world's human population and animal species die out in the meantime

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Wed Oct 30, 2024 9:45 am

lpm wrote: Tue Oct 29, 2024 7:17 pm It is a sick country. Unlikely to recover, I suspect, regardless of what happens next week.

It'll recover eventually, just depends how much of the world's human population and animal species die out in the meantime

There’s no reason to think progress and recovery is inevitable, not with the country in its current form.

There's no reason why the states should stay united. Could easily have a Pope at Rome, a Pope at Avignon

Fun that a flaw in the English language is causing a fuss.

Supporters, supporter's or supporters'.

Hard to tell what Biden was stammering about in the sentence alone, but from context it's pretty clear the intention was "The only garbage is that Trump supporter's demonisation."

Iowa? Iowa!

It's not a poll about 6 EVs, it's a poll about women.

Iowa poll: https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/ ... 354033007/

Sudden apparent turn-around in the last couple of days - at Polymarket, Trump was on 66% to win, now 53%. Maybe that French whale has switched to betting on Harris.