Scrutable

Posted: **Fri Dec 04, 2020 1:09 pm**

27 days give or take a few hours actually.....

(despite the 'get ready for brexit' UK gov advert showing it as midnight on the 31st - doh!)

Posted: **Fri Dec 04, 2020 3:25 pm**

Martin Y wrote: Fri Dec 04, 2020 1:00 pm Yes, we definitely disembark in 4 weeks, come what may. It's just a matter of agreeing where the plane will land first. But remember not landing is better than landing somewhere we don't like.

Or landing at speed into a mountainside.

Posted: **Fri Dec 04, 2020 8:58 pm**

Barnier and Frost agree that conditions for a deal are not met, and have paused to brief von der Leyen and Johnson.
Differences still remain on level playing field, governance and fish. Just as they have for months.
https://twitter.com/davidghfrost/status ... 54307?s=21

Could be followed either by both focusing on no deal with talks on the back burner, or for a dramatic flourish over the weekend by Johnson and von der Leyen who make an agreement in a personal meeting.

Johnson is going to have to make a decision by Monday about the Internal Market Bill, if the offending clauses are reinserted then it’s difficult to see how there could be an agreement with the EU before time runs out.

Posted: **Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:02 pm**

So ploughing into the mountainside during a blizzard it is then.

Posted: **Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:15 pm**

bjn wrote: Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:02 pm So ploughing into the mountainside during a blizzard it is then.

We’ll have to see. Johnson could still turn it around at the last minute. But he’ll have to make a lot of concessions.

Posted: **Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:08 am**

dramatic flourish innit.

Posted: **Sat Dec 05, 2020 11:11 am**

plodder wrote: Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:08 am dramatic flourish innit.

We'll have a good idea in a few hours. I doubt that Frost and Barnier have actually agreed a deal and this is just stage management to make their political masters look good.

The problem is that there are a huge number of details to work out in a very short time.

Posted: **Sat Dec 05, 2020 12:07 pm**

bjn wrote: Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:02 pm So ploughing into the mountainside during a blizzard it is then.

Yes.

Ever since May went mad and triggered Article 50, thus changing our negotiating position to "We'll let go and you'll catch us, right? Right? I'm letting go". We have merely been ticking down towards the mountainside in a blizzard.

Posted: **Sat Dec 05, 2020 12:23 pm**

I can't decide if this is to have the excuse that "well, we did warn you" ready and waiting for when the sh.t hits the fan in January, or if it's to heighten the stakes so that when they get the deal they can act like superheroes.

I'm hoping for the latter as the former is really not going to be good for anyone.

Posted: **Sat Dec 05, 2020 12:37 pm**

Fishnut wrote: Sat Dec 05, 2020 12:23 pm I can't decide if this is to have the excuse that "well, we did warn you" ready and waiting for when the sh.t hits the fan in January, or if it's to heighten the stakes so that when they get the deal they can act like superheroes.

I'm hoping for the latter as the former is really not going to be good for anyone.

I don't think anyone knows.

Posted: **Sat Dec 05, 2020 5:10 pm**

Johnson will concede ground he wont allow to Frost. It’ll be portrayed as a personal triumph.

Posted: **Sat Dec 05, 2020 5:29 pm**

There's still quite a lot of ground to concede though. And there'd be at least a backbench rebellion over stuff like market surveillance and level playing field (assuming whatever deal has to go through UK parliament at some point).

Posted: **Sat Dec 05, 2020 5:54 pm**

von der Leyen to make a statement in a few minutes.

Posted: **Sat Dec 05, 2020 6:12 pm**

Any linky available?

Posted: **Sat Dec 05, 2020 6:29 pm**

Big news!! Negotiations to continue.

Posted: **Sat Dec 05, 2020 6:38 pm**

Joint statement:

: 5B7CE416-E3F3-461D-B4E4-EE23686E801D.jpeg (238.95 KiB) Viewed 3857 times

Differences remaining on level playing field, governance and fish. So no progress.

Talks tomorrow will be another roll of the dice, not crossing the ‘t’s and dotting the ‘i’s. There could be a breakthrough if Johnson gives Frost a new mandate (and vice versa, but less likely).

Then it’s down to Johnson on Monday as to whether the clauses are inserted into the Bill.

Posted: **Sat Dec 05, 2020 6:46 pm**

Sounds like a lot of fanfare for a pointless conversation.

Posted: **Sat Dec 05, 2020 7:21 pm**

I presume it's occurred to Boris that lorries full of warm vaccine waiting in a queue in Belgium wouldn't go down well

Posted: **Sat Dec 05, 2020 7:34 pm**

Fisheries is just grandstanding for the crowds. All that's really needed is a fudge that both sides can present as a victory, bread-and-butter stuff for any half-competent negotiator.

Governance is harder. As far as I can see, it boils down to whether the UK is in or out of the ECJ, which seems like a binary choice. One side will have to back down.

Level playing field, the only way I can see that working is if there was a procedure for regulatory divergence (in either direction) to be met with changes to tariffs or other access controls. Doable, but not something you can devise in a few days, or even a few months. Maybe they have been devising something over the last year and just need approval from on high. Maybe.

Posted: **Sat Dec 05, 2020 7:51 pm**

Sciolus wrote: Sat Dec 05, 2020 7:34 pm Level playing field, the only way I can see that working is if there was a procedure for regulatory divergence (in either direction) to be met with changes to tariffs or other access controls. Doable, but not something you can devise in a few days, or even a few months. Maybe they have been devising something over the last year and just need approval from on high. Maybe.

This is what the EU is asking for, and the UK is saying no. I assume the EU has a pretty specific and detailed proposal, and I expect that the UK doesn't.

Having a system by which the EU can seek redress - tariffs - would sort of kind of function as a de facto enforcement mechanism, and would seem to solve a lot of problems on the governance/level playing field front.

Posted: **Sat Dec 05, 2020 8:23 pm**

Sciolus wrote: Sat Dec 05, 2020 7:34 pm Fisheries is just grandstanding for the crowds. All that's really needed is a fudge that both sides can present as a victory, bread-and-butter stuff for any half-competent negotiator.

Governance is harder. As far as I can see, it boils down to whether the UK is in or out of the ECJ, which seems like a binary choice. One side will have to back down.

Level playing field, the only way I can see that working is if there was a procedure for regulatory divergence (in either direction) to be met with changes to tariffs or other access controls. Doable, but not something you can devise in a few days, or even a few months. Maybe they have been devising something over the last year and just need approval from on high. Maybe.

As far as I know the EU has been willing to go without the ECJ. But they’d still want an external body to resolve disputes. So the name would be different but the function would be similar.

Posted: **Sat Dec 05, 2020 8:26 pm**

Bird on a Fire wrote: Sat Dec 05, 2020 7:51 pm
Sciolus wrote: Sat Dec 05, 2020 7:34 pm Level playing field, the only way I can see that working is if there was a procedure for regulatory divergence (in either direction) to be met with changes to tariffs or other access controls. Doable, but not something you can devise in a few days, or even a few months. Maybe they have been devising something over the last year and just need approval from on high. Maybe.
This is what the EU is asking for, and the UK is saying no. I assume the EU has a pretty specific and detailed proposal, and I expect that the UK doesn't.

Having a system by which the EU can seek redress - tariffs - would sort of kind of function as a de facto enforcement mechanism, and would seem to solve a lot of problems on the governance/level playing field front.

Yes, indeed. The problem is that cakeism remains. Johnson wants the UK to be able to make whatever policies it wants but still retain free access to the single market.

Posted: **Sat Dec 05, 2020 8:45 pm**

Yes. I'm sure politicians are more creative than I, but this doesn't seem to be a straightforwardly fudgeable issue. Johnson needs to come up with (or hope the EU comes up with) an external enforcement mechanism that provides the EU with certainties but which Johnson can spin as not actually really being that in a way his supporters will believe.

They've dug their heels in against this tarriff thing for four years, so what are the other options we haven't heard mentioned since 2016 but which can be agreed upon in the next three weeks?

I am slightly sceptical at this point.

Posted: **Sat Dec 05, 2020 10:18 pm**

long fudgy transitiony grass is where the solutions are. Just need to find pompous enough language.

Posted: **Sat Dec 05, 2020 10:55 pm**

Martin Y wrote: Sat Dec 05, 2020 12:07 pm
bjn wrote: Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:02 pm So ploughing into the mountainside during a blizzard it is then.
Yes.

Ever since May went mad and triggered Article 50, thus changing our negotiating position to "We'll let go and you'll catch us, right? Right? I'm letting go". We have merely been ticking down towards the mountainside in a blizzard.

There's a poster on ISF, The Don, who has been saying that since May set us offf down this road.

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