Scrutable

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/sta ... M1BdC9V-Gg

The surviving Kerch road bridge concrete doesn't look very happy.

I hope it's similar with the rail bridge

jimbob wrote: Wed Oct 12, 2022 11:13 pm https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/sta ... M1BdC9V-Gg

The surviving Kerch road bridge concrete doesn't look very happy.

I hope it's similar with the rail bridge

Huge backlog of trucks waiting for the ferry: https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/15803 ... CfrmQmSPCw

I don’t know whether they are carrying any military cargoes or if the trucks are just for the civilian economy.

jimbob wrote: Wed Oct 12, 2022 11:13 pm https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/sta ... M1BdC9V-Gg

The surviving Kerch road bridge concrete doesn't look very happy.

I hope it's similar with the rail bridge

Comment from someone who claims to know what they are talking about: https://twitter.com/per_aae/status/1580 ... IPInSjyS_w

Apiarn IED disposal: https://twitter.com/victoriayastrub/sta ... dgl__GZlMw

What a cute little ferry! Just the thing to supply South Uist.

lpm wrote: Thu Oct 13, 2022 8:17 am What a cute little ferry! Just the thing to supply South Uist.

That’ll have the lorry queue down to a couple of hours in no time.

^Typical NATO propaganda. I'll have you know that actually there are now TWO poxy little ferries serving the route.
https://crimeaports.ru/en/affiliates/ke ... ry-service

Britain's apparently going to send AMRAAMs (which can be launched out of the American supplied NASAMS) and "missiles capable of shooting down cruise missiles". I wonder whether that will be Rapier, which is potentially a pretty effective system depending on the exact version, and currently surplus to requirements and on its way out, or Sky Sabre, a very advanced system more on a level with NASAMS and IRIS-T technologically, but new, unlikely to be available from stock, and indeed so new that apparently not all the bugs have been dealt with yet.

jimbob wrote: Wed Oct 12, 2022 11:13 pm https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/sta ... M1BdC9V-Gg

The surviving Kerch road bridge concrete doesn't look very happy.

I hope it's similar with the rail bridge

The most recent satellite imagery I've seen shows it covered in workers, so it doesn't look like there's trains running. There's sagging visible, but I can't work out if it's just the gantries, or if it's the concrete. Even if the concrete isn't sagging, it's been taken to very high temperatures, and that weakens concrete.

And every day it's out of action increases the deficit in supplies to southern Ukraine, as does each day it's running at less than full capacity, if they do get traffic going over it again.

Best to wait and see, but still …

Russian forces have begun to receive orders from top military leaders to suspend offensive operations on several fronts – in particular, in Donetsk Oblast.
Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Facebook, information as of 06:00 on 13 October
Details: The General Staff explained that low morale among the recently arrived reinforcements, numerous acts of desertion by the recently conscripted soldiers, and refusal to carry out orders are among the reasons for the decision to suspend offensive operations.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/10/13/7371728/

Moscow has announced it will evacuate Kherson after an appeal from the Russian-installed head of the region, raising fears the occupied city at the heart of the south Ukrainian oblast will become a new frontline.

Marat Khusnullin, a Russian deputy prime minister, told state television on Thursday that residents would be helped to move away from the region in south Ukraine, which remains only partly occupied by invading troops due to a successful Ukrainian counterattack in recent months.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... -frontline

Woodchopper wrote: Thu Oct 13, 2022 8:06 pm Best to wait and see, but still …

Russian forces have begun to receive orders from top military leaders to suspend offensive operations on several fronts – in particular, in Donetsk Oblast.
Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Facebook, information as of 06:00 on 13 October
Details: The General Staff explained that low morale among the recently arrived reinforcements, numerous acts of desertion by the recently conscripted soldiers, and refusal to carry out orders are among the reasons for the decision to suspend offensive operations.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/10/13/7371728/

The collapse of the propaganda machine is almost as spectacular as the collapse of the army

Seems like the Kremlin is getting it right. Stop offence, abandon defence where it won't hold, and try to drag Belarus suckers into the mire.
.

Woodchopper wrote: Thu Oct 13, 2022 8:23 pm

Moscow has announced it will evacuate Kherson after an appeal from the Russian-installed head of the region, raising fears the occupied city at the heart of the south Ukrainian oblast will become a new frontline.

Marat Khusnullin, a Russian deputy prime minister, told state television on Thursday that residents would be helped to move away from the region in south Ukraine, which remains only partly occupied by invading troops due to a successful Ukrainian counterattack in recent months.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... -frontline

This effectively means the abduction of civilians. They've been stealing children and homing them with Russians.

EACLucifer wrote: Thu Oct 13, 2022 9:38 pm

Woodchopper wrote: Thu Oct 13, 2022 8:23 pm

Moscow has announced it will evacuate Kherson after an appeal from the Russian-installed head of the region, raising fears the occupied city at the heart of the south Ukrainian oblast will become a new frontline.

Marat Khusnullin, a Russian deputy prime minister, told state television on Thursday that residents would be helped to move away from the region in south Ukraine, which remains only partly occupied by invading troops due to a successful Ukrainian counterattack in recent months.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... -frontline

This effectively means the abduction of civilians. They've been stealing children and homing them with Russians.

f.ck, you’re right.

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/ ... Akx2GIjDDA

risO
@ChrisO_wiki
4/ Another man, diagnosed as HIV-positive (who cannot be called up by law) and registered with the Federal Penitentiary Service, was summoned to the inspectorate by phone call, without any announcement of any events.
8:31 PM · Oct 13, 2022
·Twitter Web App

What could go wrong with this? And what would happen to morale of troops think mobiks might have HIV?

jimbob wrote: Thu Oct 13, 2022 10:04 pm https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/ ... Akx2GIjDDA

risO
@ChrisO_wiki
4/ Another man, diagnosed as HIV-positive (who cannot be called up by law) and registered with the Federal Penitentiary Service, was summoned to the inspectorate by phone call, without any announcement of any events.
8:31 PM · Oct 13, 2022
·Twitter Web App

What could go wrong with this? And what would happen to morale of troops think mobiks might have HIV?

Especially given the stigma in Russia, and likely lack of treatment while in service.

Imrael wrote: Wed Oct 12, 2022 10:36 pm Usual twitter noise but possibly a push towards Svartove kicking off. Or maybe a Russian counter-attack. Or maybe none of the above. Probably find out more later.

There have been some advances in that area, so it looks like there was a bit of a Ukrainian push. The question now is whether they push straight for the heights west of the city, or bypass the defences now they have a force in place to pin them.

Woodchopper wrote: Thu Oct 13, 2022 5:00 am

jimbob wrote: Wed Oct 12, 2022 11:13 pm https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/sta ... M1BdC9V-Gg

The surviving Kerch road bridge concrete doesn't look very happy.

I hope it's similar with the rail bridge

Comment from someone who claims to know what they are talking about: https://twitter.com/per_aae/status/1580 ... IPInSjyS_w

AP now saying Russia wants the bridge repaired by July. This does not bode well for their occupation.

EACLucifer wrote: Fri Oct 14, 2022 2:11 pm AP now saying Russia wants the bridge repaired by July. This does not bode well for their occupation.

Well, clearly they'll need the bridge open in time for the rush of Russian holidaymakers heading for the beaches.

Martin Y wrote: Fri Oct 14, 2022 2:51 pm

EACLucifer wrote: Fri Oct 14, 2022 2:11 pm AP now saying Russia wants the bridge repaired by July. This does not bode well for their occupation.

Well, clearly they'll need the bridge open in time for the rush of Russian holidaymakers heading for the beaches.

...in order to leave the country and avoid conscription.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Friday that he does not plan more "massive" strikes against Ukraine "for now" and that the Kremlin's aim was not to "destroy" the pro-Western country.

https://twitter.com/afp/status/15809130 ... pPbdH6ZsdQ

Probably means they are running low on missiles.

Woodchopper wrote: Fri Oct 14, 2022 6:17 pm

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Friday that he does not plan more "massive" strikes against Ukraine "for now" and that the Kremlin's aim was not to "destroy" the pro-Western country.

https://twitter.com/afp/status/15809130 ... pPbdH6ZsdQ

Probably means they are running low on missiles.

So the strikes can't even be repeated.

They murdered some civilians, achieved nothing militarily effective, further pissed off the Ukrainians, and on top of that, forced the west to get cracking with air defences.

IRIS-T was already on the way. Whether the first battery was expedited or not isn't clear.

Britain would probably have sent some AMRAAMs to fire from the NASAMS already on the way, but the promise of more missiles is a surprise. Whether thats more Starstreak/Martlet, Rapier, or even Sky Sabre is not yet clear. Given Britain's form, it could also be something acquired internationally rather than taken from stock.

Spain, which has been slow to help, has pledged Hawk missiles. While students of the cold war will recognise this system as a 1950s one, and the missiles do look very old fashioned, the version Spain plans to hand over is actually more modern than most of Ukraine's air defences, and compatible with NASAMS in terms of fire control, apparently.

JULY?!

Holy sh.t, son. Sounds like the sanctions are working. Even Portugal could fix an important bridge before f.cking July.

Consider how long it is taking San Franscisco to instal a net on the Golden Gate Bridge.