Scrutable

Anyone seen a good drinking game?

Any idea which state(s) might declare first, and when? I'm hoping there's a Sunderland somewhere in the US where they get round to things quickly. I can find no end of news sites saying which states' polls close first, but nothing about which state(s) will declare first. I know it depends on time zones and at what time in the process they start to look at that heap of postal ballots in the corner, but still I was expecting something somewhere about this (have looked at 538, NY Times, Guardian, amongst others). I don't mind if it's a safe state, I just want some indication of a likely swing, a bit like Sunderland provide each time.

Brightonian wrote: Tue Nov 03, 2020 7:22 pm Any idea which state(s) might declare first? I'm hoping there's a Sunderland somewhere in the US where they get round to things quickly. I can find no end of news sites saying which states' polls close first, but nothing about which state(s) will declare first. I know it depends on time zones and at what time in the process they start to look at that heap of postal ballots in the corner, but still I was expecting something somewhere about this (have looked at 538, NY Times, Guardian, amongst others). I don't mind if it's a safe state, I just want some indication of a likely swing, a bit like Sunderland provide each time.

Whole states don't do that, but Dixville Notch completed its count at about 12:02AM EST. Biden 5 - 0 Trump.

dyqik wrote: Tue Nov 03, 2020 7:29 pm

Brightonian wrote: Tue Nov 03, 2020 7:22 pm Any idea which state(s) might declare first? I'm hoping there's a Sunderland somewhere in the US where they get round to things quickly. I can find no end of news sites saying which states' polls close first, but nothing about which state(s) will declare first. I know it depends on time zones and at what time in the process they start to look at that heap of postal ballots in the corner, but still I was expecting something somewhere about this (have looked at 538, NY Times, Guardian, amongst others). I don't mind if it's a safe state, I just want some indication of a likely swing, a bit like Sunderland provide each time.

Whole states don't do that, but Dixville Notch completed its count at about 12:02AM EST. Biden 5 - 0 Trump.

Oh, OK, thanks.

I see Dixville Notch's votes have changed markedly since 2016, but obviously not enough numbers to draw any conclusion, and maybe it just reflects a longer term demographic shift (used to be heavily Republican).

Brightonian wrote: Tue Nov 03, 2020 7:22 pm Any idea which state(s) might declare first, and when? I'm hoping there's a Sunderland somewhere in the US where they get round to things quickly. I can find no end of news sites saying which states' polls close first, but nothing about which state(s) will declare first. I know it depends on time zones and at what time in the process they start to look at that heap of postal ballots in the corner, but still I was expecting something somewhere about this (have looked at 538, NY Times, Guardian, amongst others). I don't mind if it's a safe state, I just want some indication of a likely swing, a bit like Sunderland provide each time.

There are no states that "declare" as such, for a couple of weeks. But the networks "call" states instead - based on models aligned to partial voting results. A county in Florida will say "we've counted 23% of the vote and here's the results of that chunk" and this piecemeal data keeps flowing in from around the state every minute. It's not like the UK where there is zero actual results until the entire constituency is counted and checked.

Kentucky closes at 6pm / 11 UK time, but doesn't give much useful info. There aren't enough polls to compare results to.

Florida data comes first, very fast, from 8pm / 1 a.m. UK time (polls shut in the main part of Florida an hour earlier).

North Carolina is delayed because one area is staying open 45 mins late and data can't be released until all polling stations are closed.

Try this:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... ape-night/

I like the way that URL shortens on my screen to "politics...ape-night".

Bird on a Fire wrote: Tue Nov 03, 2020 7:10 pm Anyone seen a good drinking game?

I've got one.

When the polls close, take a shot.
Continue taking shots till you get sleepy.
Go to sleep.
Wake-up next morning (afternoon) too hungover to care about the result, whichever way it goes.

HTH.

Looks like the shenanigans might have started:

clicky

How about a drink for every shenanigan?

monkey wrote: Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:51 pm Looks like the shenanigans might have started:

clicky

How about a drink for every shenanigan?

There's not enough bourbon in Kentucky for that.

Little waster wrote: Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:27 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote: Tue Nov 03, 2020 7:10 pm Anyone seen a good drinking game?

I've got one.

When the polls close, take a shot.
Continue taking shots till you get sleepy.
Go to sleep.
Wake-up next morning (afternoon) too hungover to care about the result, whichever way it goes.

HTH.

Hmmm. I was hoping for something that would be noticeable against my usual 2020 drinking background.

Actually I just had a nap anyway. Naps are good.

AND WE ARE OFF!!!!

Kentucky Senate

McGrath (D) 66%
McConnell (R-Moscow) 32%

Based on 5% of the count.

What does this mean? I don't f.cking know.

Kentucky Presidency

Biden (D-Patriot) 67%
Trump (R-Traitor) 31%

Again from first 5%of count.

That's it, 50-state landslide to Biden, I'm off to bed.

Ah, these early Kentucky numbers are from Fayette County. Of course, we all know what that means. Biden at around 67% in Fayette is a pretty clear signal, one so well known to us all that I shall not patronise you by explaining further.

sh.t. We all forgot to include Kayne West in the polling.

He's currently capturing 0.22% of the Indiana vote but when Election Day votes come in I expect that to surge to the 30-40% mark.

Latest voting figures from today in Covid County.

Hospitalised (R-Hoax) 50,340
New Cases (R-Trump) 86,507
Deaths (R-DeathCult) 1,079

Wait, I might be getting confused

US heading for record turnout, apparently. With the nation repeatedly gripped by crisis during one of the most divisive and acrimonious periods of its history, a whopping two-thirds of people are expected to cast their votes!

lpm wrote: Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:47 pm sh.t. We all forgot to include Kayne West in the polling.

He's currently capturing 0.22% of the Indiana vote but when Election Day votes come in I expect that to surge to the 30-40% mark.

I've just looked up this Kayne West guy in my encyclopedia.

Apparently he's a divisive self-proclaimed genius celebrity, known for attention-grabbing stunts, visibly failing mental health and bizarre, rambling media performances.

I can't see somebody like that winning a US election by surprise, so I'm sure you have nothing to worry about.

It's the NY Times NEEDLES!!!

Oh god. Still traumatised.

Only doing it for FLorida, Georgia and N Carolina this year.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/upsh ... ction.html

Biden campaign party is playing Coldplay... I may have to rethink EVERYTHING!

lpm wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:03 am It's the NY Times NEEDLES!!!

Oh god. Still traumatised.

Only doing it for FLorida, Georgia and N Carolina this year.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/upsh ... ction.html

Fun fact. In 2020 93% of Americans called Nate comment on presidential election polling. This is up 8% from 2016 and is one of the major demographic changes that the Republicans will have to adapt to in future decades if they want to retain power.

No idea if this is just a shitpost, but it could also be true so here https://twitter.com/lautarogrinspan/sta ... 42340?s=19

Republican apologist says: "Trump might openly support lynch mobs and neo-Nazis but in 2019 more black people were stacking shelves at Walmart then ever before so we are truly are the party of Lincoln. He was a Republican you know."

Take a shot or drink three fingers.

f.cking FLORIDA.

It's going to be a long night.

Florida isn't essential, but it would be a round 1 knock out blow.

With that off the table we need N Carolina or Georgia to land the early blows.