Scrutable

lpm wrote: Mon Nov 04, 2024 4:16 pm It is unknowable.

But on one hand

- polls underestimated Trump in 2016 and 2020
- Americans are as mad as f.ck

On the other

- plausible dyqik arguments on polls overestimating Trump post Dobbs
- hilarious final week for Trump
- no GOP ground game because Trump nicked the money and Musk thought he could do it
- Trump is behaving like he thinks he's lost

So on the whole got to be optimistic.

Dyqik, you've got the most optimism, what odds do you reckon?

I suspect that the gender difference in turnout will be ~5% towards women, with Harris winning the popular vote by >5%. At least one nominally red Midwest state will go for Harris, most of the swing states (but maybe not quickly), and Texas is a tossup in the Senate.

My dark horse is Florida - abortion is on the ballot, the Puerto Rican garbage comments have broken through, and the lies about hurricane relief are a lot of people's minds.

People who are ditching Trump will not be participating in polls.

Oh, the Trump's online boosters are talking about a squirrel that was put down for rabies protection, and launching a cryptocurrency based on it.

You guys may turn out to be right, and I sure hope you are, but holy crap there is a lot of confirmation bias on display in this thread.

If Trump loses (and gods, do I hope he loses) it'll be interesting to see what happens to the Republican party over the next 2-4 years.

JD Vance doesn't have the charisma of Trump, although he does appear to be able to lie with a straight face and appear semi-convincing. Many of the current potential replacements for 2028 are obviously bat-sh.t crazy or don't have the bare-faced cheek to try and lie to all the people all the time which Trump can do.

I doubt that the Republican party will split into fiscal conservatives and Tea Party/MAGA, but there'll probably be an almighty scrap for control if (hopefully, once) Trump becomes a 2-times loser (3 if you count the popular vote as he lost that in 2016!) and his grip on the party begins to wane.

dyqik wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 12:09 am Oh, the Trump's online boosters are talking about a squirrel that was put down for rabies protection, and launching a cryptocurrency based on it.

Oh, that's what the squirrel thing was. MAGA snowflakes sobbing about a dead squirrel? Aren't they alpha men who go out shooting squirrels each weekend? Who think showing kindness to other people is gay?

bolo wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 12:35 am You guys may turn out to be right, and I sure hope you are, but holy crap there is a lot of confirmation bias on display in this thread.

I suspect it’s wishful thinking rather than confirmation bias as such. I’m trying not to have a horrible feeling of dread personally.

Wot he said.

I can easily imagine that it will be a clear victory for Harris. Or a victory but Trump contests it successfully by bad actors in the confirmation phase or Trump wins the electoral college.

jimbob wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 7:30 am Wot he said.

I can easily imagine that it will be a clear victory for Harris. Or a victory but Trump contests it successfully by bad actors in the confirmation phase or Trump wins the electoral college.

This is very clearly what will happen if/when he loses. He's already mentioned that he and Mike Johnson have "a little secret" they'll use.

Something Chris Preston didn't mention is the level of fundraising each campaign has achieved. Harris seems to be raising around 3 times that of Trump, with over £1bn raised for her campaign.

They also have an amazing ground game organisation with thousands of volunteers getting the vote out. Trump has....Elon Musk's horrorshow.

headshot wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 8:18 am

jimbob wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 7:30 am Wot he said.

I can easily imagine that it will be a clear victory for Harris. Or a victory but Trump contests it successfully by bad actors in the confirmation phase or Trump wins the electoral college.

This is very clearly what will happen if/when he loses. He's already mentioned that he and Mike Johnson have "a little secret" they'll use.

Something Chris Preston didn't mention is the level of fundraising each campaign has achieved. Harris seems to be raising around 3 times that of Trump, with over £1bn raised for her campaign.

They also have an amazing ground game organisation with thousands of volunteers getting the vote out. Trump has....Elon Musk's horrorshow.

I think the key word was “successfully”. No question that he will dispute any electoral college votes that he didn’t win.

Grumble wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 8:32 am

headshot wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 8:18 am

jimbob wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 7:30 am Wot he said.

I can easily imagine that it will be a clear victory for Harris. Or a victory but Trump contests it successfully by bad actors in the confirmation phase or Trump wins the electoral college.

This is very clearly what will happen if/when he loses. He's already mentioned that he and Mike Johnson have "a little secret" they'll use.

Something Chris Preston didn't mention is the level of fundraising each campaign has achieved. Harris seems to be raising around 3 times that of Trump, with over £1bn raised for her campaign.

They also have an amazing ground game organisation with thousands of volunteers getting the vote out. Trump has....Elon Musk's horrorshow.

I think the key word was “successfully”. No question that he will dispute any electoral college votes that he didn’t win.

Indeed, that was my worry, Grumble.

Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, traditionally opens their polling station on the stroke of midnight, all their voters vote immediately, and they declare the result shortly afterwards.

This time, of the six voters, four were registered Republicans and two undeclared. They've voted three for Trump and three for Harris.

Grumble wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 7:27 am

bolo wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 12:35 am You guys may turn out to be right, and I sure hope you are, but holy crap there is a lot of confirmation bias on display in this thread.

I suspect it’s wishful thinking rather than confirmation bias as such. I’m trying not to have a horrible feeling of dread personally.

Personally, I am worried that I am indulging in confirmation bias and I will turn out to be horribly wrong. I do see that if Trump wins it will be despite of rather than because of his campaign.

bolo wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 12:35 am You guys may turn out to be right, and I sure hope you are, but holy crap there is a lot of confirmation bias on display in this thread.

You are right, I was thinking this myself.

Yes, but so what? It is fundamentally unknowable. It's not like we're pinning anything tangible on our speculations.

Optimism is the 2nd best approach for happiness. So I'll be optimistic and go for 310-228. Adding NC, losing AZ.

The best approach for happiness is to be unaware. There are people who've never heard of Trump. They have a freedom we'll never know.

Brightonian wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 8:49 am Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, traditionally opens their polling station on the stroke of midnight, all their voters vote immediately, and they declare the result shortly afterwards.

This time, of the six voters, four were registered Republicans and two undeclared. They've voted three for Trump and three for Harris.

Grim news. Biden won Dixville Notch 5-0 last time around. If this swing is replicated nationally then Trump wins all 50 states plus DC.

Those NYT needles might not be operational tonight. The tech staff are on strike.

lpm wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 10:02 am Yes, but so what? It is fundamentally unknowable. It's not like we're pinning anything tangible on our speculations.

Optimism is the 2nd best approach for happiness. So I'll be optimistic and go for 310-228. Adding NC, losing AZ.

The best approach for happiness is to be unaware. There are people who've never heard of Trump. They have a freedom we'll never know.

I thought I might be being too subtle with that attempt at humour, never mind...

Yes, I think at this point I'd rather be optimistic.

lpm wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 4:50 am

dyqik wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 12:09 am Oh, the Trump's online boosters are talking about a squirrel that was put down for rabies protection, and launching a cryptocurrency based on it.

Oh, that's what the squirrel thing was. MAGA snowflakes sobbing about a dead squirrel? Aren't they alpha men who go out shooting squirrels each weekend? Who think showing kindness to other people is gay?

The squirrel was famous because it was used by a guy to boost his gay p.rn Only Fans.

dyqik wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 11:23 am

lpm wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 4:50 am

dyqik wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 12:09 am Oh, the Trump's online boosters are talking about a squirrel that was put down for rabies protection, and launching a cryptocurrency based on it.

Oh, that's what the squirrel thing was. MAGA snowflakes sobbing about a dead squirrel? Aren't they alpha men who go out shooting squirrels each weekend? Who think showing kindness to other people is gay?

The squirrel was famous because it was used by a guy to boost his gay p.rn Only Fans.

??? America may genuinely have lost its f.cking mind now.
When "Won't somebody think of the gay p.rn squirrels?" becomes an election talking point, there are no sharks left to jump.

Martin Y wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 12:28 pm

dyqik wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 11:23 am

lpm wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 4:50 am
Oh, that's what the squirrel thing was. MAGA snowflakes sobbing about a dead squirrel? Aren't they alpha men who go out shooting squirrels each weekend? Who think showing kindness to other people is gay?

The squirrel was famous because it was used by a guy to boost his gay p.rn Only Fans.

??? America may genuinely have lost its f.cking mind now.
When "Won't somebody think of the gay p.rn squirrels?" becomes an election talking point, there are no sharks left to jump.

Gay p.rn squirrels that may have rabies.

lpm wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 10:05 am

Brightonian wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 8:49 am Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, traditionally opens their polling station on the stroke of midnight, all their voters vote immediately, and they declare the result shortly afterwards.

This time, of the six voters, four were registered Republicans and two undeclared. They've voted three for Trump and three for Harris.

Grim news. Biden won Dixville Notch 5-0 last time around. If this swing is replicated nationally then Trump wins all 50 states plus DC.

On the third hand, Harris won 50% of Haley supporters here (all six voters voted for Haley in the primary). If that is repeated nationally, Trump loses several safe red states.

dyqik wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 12:29 pm

Martin Y wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 12:28 pm

dyqik wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 11:23 am

The squirrel was famous because it was used by a guy to boost his gay p.rn Only Fans.

??? America may genuinely have lost its f.cking mind now.
When "Won't somebody think of the gay p.rn squirrels?" becomes an election talking point, there are no sharks left to jump.

Gay p.rn squirrels that may have rabies.

It is interesting how terminally p.rn brained Trump's online support is. They don't seem to realize that Project 2025 will ban p.rn.

At the same time, a minor Harris supporting PAC has been running ads on p.rn sites before videos to point this out.

You're making it up now.

Will next be saying Trump wants to see rapist Mike Tyson in the ring with Harris.

I made the connection with Trump and Guy Fawkes well before Marina Hyde published this piece, I'll have you know
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... guy-fawkes

dyqik wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 12:30 pm

lpm wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 10:05 am

Brightonian wrote: Tue Nov 05, 2024 8:49 am Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, traditionally opens their polling station on the stroke of midnight, all their voters vote immediately, and they declare the result shortly afterwards.

This time, of the six voters, four were registered Republicans and two undeclared. They've voted three for Trump and three for Harris.

Grim news. Biden won Dixville Notch 5-0 last time around. If this swing is replicated nationally then Trump wins all 50 states plus DC.

On the third hand, Harris won 50% of Haley supporters here (all six voters voted for Haley in the primary). If that is repeated nationally, Trump loses several safe red states.

On the sixth hand, the Dixville Notch vote In 2016 was Clinton 4, Trump 2, Gary Johnson 1, Mitt Romney 1.