Scrutable

Little waster wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:07 am Biden campaign party is playing Coldplay... I may have to rethink EVERYTHING!

Well yeah now we have to support trump — the lesser of two evils.

If you have to choose between 1) dying of COVID or trump inspired violence, or 2) listening to Coldplay, there would need to be something seriously wrong with you to choose option 2.

Pundit says: Florida is always close.

Take a shot.

Pundit says: Democracy is on the ballot.

Take a shot of the person to the left of you's drink.

Republican says: Enthusiasm for Trump in Miami-Dade is very high.

Do crystal meth while holding an emotional support alligator.

Republican says: Biden is a socialist.

Nationalise the means of production and take a shot of vodka.

BBC cuts from the US election coverage to give us the news. Newsreader leads with US election news.

Bake a cake in a tent... and then drink it.

Greg Davies refers to Alex Horne as "Little Alex Horne" in a high-pitched voice.

Rummage down the side of the sofa for the remote as you've drunkenly changed channel to Dave.

Florida is running 5.7 points better for Trump than the final 538 poll average.

We are in f.ck up territory.

Pennsylvania was only +4.7 in the final 538 average so this sort of polling miss would give Trump the win there as well...

The Florida disaster looks to be mostly Hispanic and partly Black voters.

Looks like Georgia is heading away from us as well.

But better news in North Carolina. Currently trending to Biden +2.

Pundit mentions large number of mail-in votes.

Post yourself a shot. Don't accept it when it arrives.

Per Nate Cohen of NYT:

As you can see, Trump is doing way, way better than 2016 in Hispanic and Cuban areas. He's also doing better in majority black precincts. Biden *is* doing better in older and relatively white areas, as you can see. But not by much--and that doesn't cut it in diverse FL

Florida is going be a swing to Trump from his narrow +1.2 win in 2016 to +3 in 2020.

This is UNDOUBTEDLY the best coverage we've found so far: https://youtu.be/vC1KjwH2Jg0

Senate:

Moscow Mitch McConnell has won in Kentucky. So that dream is over.

Florida is swinging because of Cuban Americans.

That's just not a factor elsewhere.

lpm wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:41 am Florida is running 5.7 points better for Trump than the final 538 poll average.

We are in f.ck up territory.

Pennsylvania was only +4.7 in the final 538 average so this sort of polling miss would give Trump the win there as well...

The Florida disaster looks to be mostly Hispanic and partly Black voters.

That's all I needed to hear.

I'm going to get very drunk.

Starting with all of LW's (excellent) suggestions.

Yes, looks like the white elderly counties are doing fine for Biden, and the suburb places in random places around the country. The Cuban Hispanic vote is a f.cking disaster. But also looks like the black margin is lower than expected.

There were worries about Florida's Cuban voters in several polls over the last few weeks.

But how can 538 be so badly wrong.

Bewildered wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:36 am

Little waster wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:07 am Biden campaign party is playing Coldplay... I may have to rethink EVERYTHING!

Well yeah now we have to support trump — the lesser of two evils.

If you have to choose between 1) dying of COVID or trump inspired violence, or 2) listening to Coldplay, there would need to be something seriously wrong with you to choose option 2.

It's odd, because I'd always thought of Coldplay as Trump fans. Who can forget this moving tribute to his Moscow bedsheets, for instance.

Eek. Neck and neck in Florida with 81% counted. Another recount hell?

FLorida is over.

The Florida panhandle polls haven't even shut yet but Florida is lost.

Will be interesting to see if the Trumpy areas of the panhandle are as Trumpy as 2016.

Georgia is also heading steadily to Trump.

Trump doing 4 points better than the final 538 poll - heading for +3 vs polling -1.

South Carolina already called for Trump.

Not unexpected, but a quick call.

1% of Floridans have voted "Other" because yes that'll probably be larger than the winning margin and you could end up with the candidate you wanted least but you really thought this was the year when the Make Horses Wear Trousers Party were going to finally break through.

Little waster wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:08 am 1% of Floridans have voted "Other" because yes that'll probably be larger than the winning margin and you could end up with the candidate you wanted least but you really thought this was the year when the Make Horses Wear Trousers Party were going to finally break through.

Lot of Kanye fans in Florida.

Senate:

Georgia - the Purdue seat could be won by him with >50% without a need for a run-off.

So much for the idea that Purdue being a racist c.nt and losing debates would lead to his defeat.

The "oh it's just Cuban/VZ voters in Miami-Dale" excuse doesn't work for Georgia.

Georgia was +1 to Biden in the final 538 average. It's heading to Trump +5.

Another 6 point polling miss.

Steady me down, someone.

Just refreshed NYT and all the dials lurched to the right. Even NC is nearly breaking even for the Cheetoh monster.

I've just opened a nice bottle of red.

Georgia has to be a fail with black voters.

White suburban looks OK for Biden.

North Carolina is heading for a tie. Only 2 points worse than the 538 poll of +1.8 to Biden.

Fuckity f.ck.

CNN exit poll of Hispanic voters:

Florida:
2016: Clinton +27
2020: Biden +8

Georgia:
2016: Clinton +40
2020: Biden +25

Ohio:
2016: Clinton +41
2020: Biden +24

Texas +5 for Biden at the moment with just under half the bit counted.