Scrutable

The BARS Brigade sound like a bunch of lads on a night out enjoying some bantz .

But I assume they're probably implicated in war crimes.

Reports of a Ukrainian drone attack on Russian ships in Sevastopol, including surface drones

https://twitter.com/CovertShores?ref_sr ... r%5Eauthor

Edit: Admiral Makarov may have been damaged, video in link
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1586 ... 17/video/1

She took over as flagship after Moskva sank, and is a very modern Admiral Grigorovich class frigate.

Formerly AvP wrote: Sat Oct 29, 2022 2:32 pm Reports of a Ukrainian drone attack on Russian ships in Sevastopol, including surface drones

https://twitter.com/CovertShores?ref_sr ... r%5Eauthor

Edit: Admiral Makarov may have been damaged, video in link
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1586 ... 17/video/1

She took over as flagship after Moskva sank, and is a very modern Admiral Grigorovich class frigate.

Footage shows a small planing boat that one presumes is an uncrewed surface loitering munition getting right up alongside a frigate - too exhausted to confirm ID, but Grigorovich class certainly plausible - before the feed cuts out. A detonation of a warhead of any size there will have caused damage.

However, unlikely to cause any damage below the waterline, and ship near port, so survival likely.

EACLucifer wrote: Sat Oct 29, 2022 5:50 pm

Formerly AvP wrote: Sat Oct 29, 2022 2:32 pm Reports of a Ukrainian drone attack on Russian ships in Sevastopol, including surface drones

https://twitter.com/CovertShores?ref_sr ... r%5Eauthor

Edit: Admiral Makarov may have been damaged, video in link
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1586 ... 17/video/1

She took over as flagship after Moskva sank, and is a very modern Admiral Grigorovich class frigate.

Footage shows a small planing boat that one presumes is an uncrewed surface loitering munition getting right up alongside a frigate - too exhausted to confirm ID, but Grigorovich class certainly plausible - before the feed cuts out. A detonation of a warhead of any size there will have caused damage.

However, unlikely to cause any damage below the waterline, and ship near port, so survival likely.

H I Sutton's analysis of what we know

I hadn't clicked that there were at least 7 USVs involved

https://youtu.be/C_tvZufo4hE

Someone managed to sneak onto a Russian airfield hundreds of miles from the border and plant timebombs on several helicopters. There is some footage circulating, which shows the use of professional, regular equipment, nothing improvised, suggesting that the saboteur was well-resourced.

The attack apparently distributed a pair of Ka-52s over a large area, and also claimed an Mi-28 and damaged a couple of others.

So far, no claims of having arrested the saboteur. I hope, of course, that he got clean away, but this sort of mission is very dangerous.

EACLucifer wrote: Tue Nov 01, 2022 9:34 am Someone managed to sneak onto a Russian airfield hundreds of miles from the border and plant timebombs on several helicopters. There is some footage circulating, which shows the use of professional, regular equipment, nothing improvised, suggesting that the saboteur was well-resourced.

The attack apparently distributed a pair of Ka-52s over a large area, and also claimed an Mi-28 and damaged a couple of others.

So far, no claims of having arrested the saboteur. I hope, of course, that he got clean away, but this sort of mission is very dangerous.

This like early days SAS stuff. Which of course was formed to fight against Nazis, so even more appropriate.

EACLucifer wrote: Tue Nov 01, 2022 9:34 am Someone managed to sneak onto a Russian airfield hundreds of miles from the border and plant timebombs on several helicopters. There is some footage circulating, which shows the use of professional, regular equipment, nothing improvised, suggesting that the saboteur was well-resourced.

The attack apparently distributed a pair of Ka-52s over a large area, and also claimed an Mi-28 and damaged a couple of others.

So far, no claims of having arrested the saboteur. I hope, of course, that he got clean away, but this sort of mission is very dangerous.

One remarkable thing about the video is that it was filmed in broad daylight and the saboteur didn't seem to be worried about being seen. Perhaps the guards have all been sent off to the front.

Presumably there are many Ukrainians living in Russia, speaking perfect Russian, with a network of friends and family in Russia. A security nightmare for the fascists.

For all we know the saboteur could be Russian aircrew who decided they'd rather their helicopter blew up on the ground whilst they were far away than blown up in the air whilst they were inside...

TopBadger wrote: Tue Nov 01, 2022 1:13 pm For all we know the saboteur could be Russian aircrew who decided they'd rather their helicopter blew up on the ground whilst they were far away than blown up in the air whilst they were inside...

Except that somehow Ukraine got hold of the footage and shared it, which argues in favour of Ukrainian involvement

jimbob wrote: Tue Nov 01, 2022 1:47 pm

TopBadger wrote: Tue Nov 01, 2022 1:13 pm For all we know the saboteur could be Russian aircrew who decided they'd rather their helicopter blew up on the ground whilst they were far away than blown up in the air whilst they were inside...

Except that somehow Ukraine got hold of the footage and shared it, which argues in favour of Ukrainian involvement

But not very strongly, given the number of videos from inside Russia that are around in coverage of the war.

jimbob wrote: Tue Nov 01, 2022 1:47 pm

TopBadger wrote: Tue Nov 01, 2022 1:13 pm For all we know the saboteur could be Russian aircrew who decided they'd rather their helicopter blew up on the ground whilst they were far away than blown up in the air whilst they were inside...

Except that somehow Ukraine got hold of the footage and shared it, which argues in favour of Ukrainian involvement

And Czech time fuzes, too.

On the other hand, disgruntled Iranian scientists were equipped with Israeli bombs to blow up some of the centrifuges the IRGC are using to try and get the bomb, and may not have even been aware they were working for the Mossad at the time. Recruiting insiders has been done since...well, there's records of it about as far back as there are records of warfare. Successful military leaders generally need to ensure that all the people under their command remain gruntled at all times.

EACLucifer wrote: Tue Nov 01, 2022 10:03 pmRecruiting insiders has been done since...well, there's records of it about as far back as there are records of warfare.

One of the chapters of The Art of War is about intelligence and espionage, so that's ~2500 years ago.

Very mixed messages re: Kherson right now.

Over the last couple of weeks the Russians have been reinforcing parts of the defensive ring round the city, and holding off Ukrainian attacks in the north of the theatre.

But they've also been stealing everything not nailed down, and a number of things that are nailed down too. And digging in pillboxes on the Kinburn peninsula and otherwise south of the Dnipro.

Now there's talk of abandoned checkpoints, and photos of the regional administration building with no Russians in sight and no Russian flag.

Keep an eye on the oblast, and try to avoid making conclusions from single data points, as a lot of them are conflicting.

EACLucifer wrote: Thu Nov 03, 2022 10:44 am Very mixed messages re: Kherson right now.

Over the last couple of weeks the Russians have been reinforcing parts of the defensive ring round the city, and holding off Ukrainian attacks in the north of the theatre.

But they've also been stealing everything not nailed down, and a number of things that are nailed down too. And digging in pillboxes on the Kinburn peninsula and otherwise south of the Dnipro.

Now there's talk of abandoned checkpoints, and photos of the regional administration building with no Russians in sight and no Russian flag.

Keep an eye on the oblast, and try to avoid making conclusions from single data points, as a lot of them are conflicting.

Apparently the Russians are destroying mobile phone masts: https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/sta ... SzhThKtZaw

One explanation is that they don't want to leave any infrastructure behind.

But I agree, best to wait before drawing conclusions.

Phone masts are one of the easiest bits of infrastructure to replace. Hell, you don't even need a power line for them, just a generator.

It's possible they have a more short-term concern, wanting to deprive locals of a phone network so they can't report on Russian positions, rather than caring what happens afterward if they have to withdraw.

Martin Y wrote: Thu Nov 03, 2022 2:10 pm It's possible they have a more short-term concern, wanting to deprive locals of a phone network so they can't report on Russian positions, rather than caring what happens afterward if they have to withdraw.

That really should be controllable in software from a central location, rather than needing towers to be demolished.

dyqik wrote: Thu Nov 03, 2022 2:17 pm

Martin Y wrote: Thu Nov 03, 2022 2:10 pm It's possible they have a more short-term concern, wanting to deprive locals of a phone network so they can't report on Russian positions, rather than caring what happens afterward if they have to withdraw.

That really should be controllable in software from a central location, rather than needing towers to be demolished.

But you can easily see how breaking the thing in real space negates the need to fight for control of it in cyber space...

And if you have developed a low expectation of everyone else on your side actually doing their job properly, it's a lot more confidence-giving to just blow stuff up yourself rather than complain about "what cyber defence doing?" while you're getting shelled.

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status ... 47616?s=20

The Kerch Bridge has managed to carry 16 "light" trains since the attack.

Claiming that it will be repaired by July.

So pretty much out of the war until then

Martin Y wrote: Thu Nov 03, 2022 2:10 pm It's possible they have a more short-term concern, wanting to deprive locals of a phone network so they can't report on Russian positions, rather than caring what happens afterward if they have to withdraw.

Quite possibly. They'd previously cut internet cables and phone cables that run beneath the surface. This is making life radically harder for civilians, as you might imagine, including greatly complicating access to medicine.

Now they're also destroying powerline posts around Beryslav. They've also withdrawn from the Kherson regional administration building, as confirmed by footage from within the building.

And they are still digging in over the river.

My assumption at this point is they don't want to abandon their positions, but are trying to remove everything of value to them - which appears not to include the mobiks. They may well attempt to hold their right-bank positions for as long as possible with mobiks to increase the cost to Ukraine of liberating the territory, while also trying to make it more difficult to re-establish normal civilian life.

And in related news, unless something changes, a lot of the civilians left in places like Mariupol are going to die this winter. Russia has quite deliberately destroyed the equipment needed to keep people warm, and chosen not to replace it.

I'd assumed with the Russians just over the river and within easy artillery range, normal civilian life would be off the agenda for a good while. Even if power/water could be established they'd be extremely vulnerable. WW2 vintage 120mm mortars range out to 9 Km, which would cover most of the central area of the city from the opposite bank.

Not suggesting that's what the Russians would use, but illustrating that pretty much anything could do damage, and suppressing them would be next to impossible.

Heard an analyst today on the news say that blowing the dam near Kherson would also damage Crimea's water supply... and flood much more strongly on the east of the river (where the Russian defensive positions are).

So here's hoping the Russian's don't do anything stupid with the dam.

Also sounds like the fighting is kicking up a notch near Kreminna which is important for control of a key road. If Ukraine takes this apparently other Russian positions become untenable and their whole line may need to drop back another 40km.