Scrutable

I think I'm worried more by Michigan than Pennsylvania. Biden won it by 2.8%, not sure Harris is going to match that.

It's all slowly creeping Trump's way. Georgia and North Carolina aren't coming back from here.

Visit twitter to see a lot of cope going on.

The polls were pretty accurate, it's a 50/50. But all three of WI, MI and PA are looking knife-edge, leaving Harris with a narrow path.

It might well take till Saturday again, but this time I think it's going to be MAGA trucks cruising around blaring their horns.

lpm wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2024 2:16 am I think I'm worried more by Michigan than Pennsylvania. Biden won it by 2.8%, not sure Harris is going to match that.

Yep, big swing to Trump in Michigan among younger voters: https://news.sky.com/story/us-election- ... 21#8574868

Actually, don't think it will take till Saturday.

All over tonight. Wisconsin is not looking good at all.

That Selzer Iowa poll was stupid. Got everyone excited. Iowa is forecast to be the about same as 2020.

Best forecast now is an identical map to 2016.

Trump wins 306-232.

Nevada now irrelevant either way. If Harris wins one or two of MI, WI and PA then it merely closes the gap a bit.

Betting odds now 90% for Trump. Feels about right.

New York Times prediction for key states:

North Carolina - Trump +3.4
Georgia - Trump +2.5
Pennsylvania - Trump +1.9
Michigan - Trump +1.6
Wisconsin - Trump +0.8

https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/18 ... 8263803379

Polymarket now has Trump 88% to win.

Things I don't understand

- losing despite big turnout?
- where's the famous Dem ground game vs the joke Rep ground game?
- why are Americans such f.cking idiots?

Things I do understand

- too many Americans are racist and Harris isn't white
- too many Americans are misogynists and Harris isn't a man

Well I'm off to bed.

I think the Selzer poll sums up how the night went. Iowa was supposed to transform from a Trump +8 victory into a Harris +3.

In fact Iowa's heading towards Trump +13.

The whole election is pretty much unbelievable. How can it possibly be? Another shameful act of destructive stupidity by Homo sapiens. What a f.cking species.

Still. It was nice whilst that Iowa poll seemed believable.

And Americans are voting in large numbers to enshrined abortion rights, whilst making the man who damaged them president.

The Guardian reporting that Repugs have taken the Senate.

This is bad. Very bad.

That was the only known thing in advance to be fair. No chance of the Dems keeping it.

lpm wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2024 4:13 am Well I'm off to bed.

I think the Selzer poll sums up how the night went. Iowa was supposed to transform from a Trump +8 victory into a Harris +3.

In fact Iowa's heading towards Trump +13.

The whole election is pretty much unbelievable. How can it possibly be? Another shameful act of destructive stupidity by Homo sapiens. What a f.cking species.

How?

I’ll stick with the things we’ve been discussing.

Inflation is politically toxic, and the incumbent party in the White House is getting punished.

Harris ran a good campaign in difficult circumstances, but she didn’t have time to define herself independently from the unpopular Biden (which perhaps she could have done if she’d won a primary).

Trump is a smart political operator who focused upon issues that are popular with the electorate.

lpm wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2024 3:33 am Things I don't understand

- losing despite big turnout?
- where's the famous Dem ground game vs the joke Rep ground game?
- why are Americans such f.cking idiots?

The ground game only makes a difference for a few percentage points. It won’t save a candidate who isn’t that popular.

Yes, they’re idiots, but no more than Europeans (who voted for right wing populists like Johnson, Wilders or Berlusconi).

Woodchopper wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2024 6:07 am

lpm wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2024 4:13 am Well I'm off to bed.

I think the Selzer poll sums up how the night went. Iowa was supposed to transform from a Trump +8 victory into a Harris +3.

In fact Iowa's heading towards Trump +13.

The whole election is pretty much unbelievable. How can it possibly be? Another shameful act of destructive stupidity by Homo sapiens. What a f.cking species.

How?

I’ll stick with the things we’ve been discussing.

Inflation is politically toxic, and the incumbent party in the White House is getting punished.

Harris ran a good campaign in difficult circumstances, but she didn’t have time to define herself independently from the unpopular Biden (which perhaps she could have done if she’d won a primary).

Trump is a smart political operator who focused upon issues that are popular with the electorate.

Tbh I think definition or not, Harris would likely still have lost. Hispanics think she's a communist.

Well, I was horribly wrong. After the dysfunctionality of Trump's first term and his efforts to stay in power, I really couldn't envisage that people would say "Let's do that all again."

There are a few bright spots. Kari Lake looks almost certain to lose. On the other side Greene and Boebart both won.

The Republican Party currently looks like it could easily have the House, Senate and the Presidency. If so, I can't see how a lot of Project 2025 will now not be enacted.

I read an article a couple of weeks ago about the phenomenon of turkeys voting for Christmas. The psychology as it was explained in the article was that out groups know they are in the frame, but are hoping there are other out groups who will rake the fall first and they will be spared.

Maybe some people thought Trump might not do any of the things he said he was going to do, but he has promised to put Kennedy in charge of health policy and Musk in charge of the budget. It will be that bloodbath, Trump promised.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2024 6:21 am

Woodchopper wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2024 6:07 am

lpm wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2024 4:13 am Well I'm off to bed.

I think the Selzer poll sums up how the night went. Iowa was supposed to transform from a Trump +8 victory into a Harris +3.

In fact Iowa's heading towards Trump +13.

The whole election is pretty much unbelievable. How can it possibly be? Another shameful act of destructive stupidity by Homo sapiens. What a f.cking species.

How?

I’ll stick with the things we’ve been discussing.

Inflation is politically toxic, and the incumbent party in the White House is getting punished.

Harris ran a good campaign in difficult circumstances, but she didn’t have time to define herself independently from the unpopular Biden (which perhaps she could have done if she’d won a primary).

Trump is a smart political operator who focused upon issues that are popular with the electorate.

Tbh I think definition or not, Harris would likely still have lost. Hispanics think she's a communist.

I guess we'll never know about Harris.

But I still think that if Biden had been clear all along about stepping down then the Democrats would have had a much better chance of getting a candidate that could win against Trump.

I have no hope that Trump 2 will be anything like as good as Trump 1.

I guess we’ll see how much influence Musk has and/or how committed Musk is to electrifying everything.

Waking up and... f.ck.

Seems America wants to be Russia.

f.ck, sh.t, piss, bollocks

Grumble wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2024 7:27 am I guess we’ll see how much influence Musk has and/or how committed Musk is to electrifying everything.

I suspect Musk is more interested in having another round of tax cuts for billionaires and owning the libs.

Spare a thought for Ukraine and Palestine. Both are unlikely to last long with Trump in office.

Taiwan could be in danger, too, as Trump might put tariffs on China, but is unlikely to give Taiwan aid (or be able to afford it!)

Chris Preston wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2024 8:28 am

Grumble wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2024 7:27 am I guess we’ll see how much influence Musk has and/or how committed Musk is to electrifying everything.

I suspect Musk is more interested in having another round of tax cuts for billionaires and owning the libs.

Yes, but he is also interested in growing Tesla.