Scrutable

Ed Yong trying to explain the thinking behind the UK government's plan.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... on/608065/

Having seen a news report last night highlighting how bad things are now for food banks, I decided that I could afford to nip to Sainsbury's in Dartford at lunchtime to buy a few donations. Fortunately there was enough stuff left that I could make a decent donation. A drop in the ocean, I know, but it's good to offset the selfish bastards even if it is a small amount.

Sadly there are reports of people stealing out of those food bank donation bins in supermarkets.

What is going on now?

What does SAGE mean?

I'm not sure what Alexander Johnson is talking about.

Mass gatherings?

Over 70s?

Travel restrictions?

What is the government advice.

Rich H wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:50 pm Having seen a news report last night highlighting how bad things are now for food banks, I decided that I could afford to nip to Sainsbury's in Dartford at lunchtime to buy a few donations. Fortunately there was enough stuff left that I could make a decent donation. A drop in the ocean, I know, but it's good to offset the selfish bastards even if it is a small amount.

Sadly there are reports of people stealing out of those food bank donation bins in supermarkets.

Yes they are stealing them.

They are stealing from hospitals as well.

calmooney wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:40 pm Ed Yong trying to explain the thinking behind the UK government's plan.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... on/608065/

You go all in, or not at all. And not at all ends up like Italy

Italy is not "not at all". "not at all" is going to end up a lot worse that Italy. You might want to imagine that Italy is avoiding testing people or not attributing deaths to Covid or whatever, but the Covid triage station is not just a f.cking shed with a chair and a phone in it.

The rate of new positives here seems to be slowing down, or at least following a longer exponential. The UK one is speeding up.

Telling people they need to start working from home at 5.30 in the evening is a brilliant idea.

shpalman wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:25 pm

calmooney wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:40 pm Ed Yong trying to explain the thinking behind the UK government's plan.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... on/608065/

You go all in, or not at all. And not at all ends up like Italy

Italy is not "not at all". "not at all" is going to end up a lot worse that Italy. You might want to imagine that Italy is avoiding testing people or not attributing deaths to Covid or whatever, but the Covid triage station is not just a f.cking shed with a chair and a phone in it.

The rate of new positives here seems to be slowing down, or at least following a longer exponential. The UK one is speeding up.

The govt deliberately decided to run the reactor hotter, to churn out more neutrons early on. Ramp up fast, shove in control rods later than they could have done. The hope is more of the fuel is exhausted by the time the control rods degrade later in the year.

Proof?

- on Thursday ill people were only told to isolate for 7 days, when probably infectious for at least 14
- on Thursday the partners and housemates of ill people did not need to isolate, were free to leave the house and take a packed underground train

Their model now tells them it's time to put in some control rods, but not all. They are not lowering the schools control rod yet. They want the reactor to run a little hotter still.

It's a hell of approach. Part of the reason why they are communicating badly is because they don't dare communicate clearly.

Advising pubs, theaters to close etc but not ordering them to is a f.cking sh.t cowards position.

In other news, work emailed at about 4pm saying we should still come into work as normal. Announcements like this at 5.30pm on a weekday are not really ideal.

discovolante wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:51 pm Advising pubs, theaters to close etc but not ordering them to is a f.cking sh.t cowards position.
In other news, work emailed at about 4pm saying we should still come into work as normal. Announcements like this at 5.30pm on a weekday are not really ideal.

My company had just made working from home voluntary this morning, but is now basically shutting the office. Lots of uneasy attempts at jokes and goodbyes, it's all very weird and quite upsetting. I think some people still don't believe me when I tell them it'll be mid-June at the very earliest before we're back, they still think it'll just be a couple of weeks and will then blow over.

We just drove out for a very socially distanced walk in the hills.

Then I went to fill up the car with petrol. It seemed like life was completely normal. The roads were busy and you wouldn't know anything is going on.

Frau HS and I have been socially distancing and effectively isolating at home for a week.

The question is whether anyone will actually take this seriously. They don't seem to be right now.

calmooney wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:59 pm

discovolante wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:51 pm Advising pubs, theaters to close etc but not ordering them to is a f.cking sh.t cowards position.
In other news, work emailed at about 4pm saying we should still come into work as normal. Announcements like this at 5.30pm on a weekday are not really ideal.

My company had just made working from home voluntary this morning, but is now basically shutting the office. Lots of uneasy attempts at jokes and goodbyes, it's all very weird and quite upsetting. I think some people still don't believe me when I tell them it'll be mid-June at the very earliest before we're back, they still think it'll just be a couple of weeks and will then blow over.

My manager has just called to say stay home tomorrow, thankfully. Skype meeting tomorrow to work out how this is going to be managed long term. The courts aren't shutting down, which doesn't help...

T

headshot wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:16 pm We just drove out for a very socially distanced walk in the hills.

Then I went to fill up the car with petrol. It seemed like life was completely normal. The roads were busy and you wouldn't know anything is going on.

Frau HS and I have been socially distancing and effectively isolating at home for a week.

The question is whether anyone will actually take this seriously. They don't seem to be right now.

They are here in Spain. The message has got through. People (mostly, except for a few obvious ex-pats) have got on message. This lockdown sh.t will hit the UK soon enough. I wonder who the deniers will be? A pox on them all.

For what its worth, blog post from me on this evenings updates, plus the new Imperial College London modelling paper (unsure if its upthread anywhere, if not already seen then there's lot of data to unpick and its clearly informed CMO policy)

https://medium.com/@michael.g.head/uk-c ... 6e146e4be3

headshot wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:16 pm We just drove out for a very socially distanced walk in the hills.

Then I went to fill up the car with petrol. It seemed like life was completely normal. The roads were busy and you wouldn't know anything is going on.

Frau HS and I have been socially distancing and effectively isolating at home for a week.

The question is whether anyone will actually take this seriously. They don't seem to be right now.

It was bizarre picking my son up early from Aberdeen.

Loads of people carrying on as normal but some people in masks.

As Duck, formerly of this parish said a few days ago, it's like watching a storm approaching on the horizon and hoping it will veer off and being on the Titanic after the iceberg has struck and knowing it's a mathematical certainty it will sink, but at the moment they're still serving breakfast to the first class passengers

I believe I saw Duck Ceridwen on facebook the other day all kitted out in traditional anti-Pest dressup with big beak.
She always was a quick and smart bird.

Part of a post claimed to be from an ER doctor based in the US. Its posted on Facebook by someone who is usually reliable. Makes points about testing that I haven't seen before. Though they may well be specific to the US.

It is a huge burden to test. Why, you ask? COVID is a droplet and contact disease. It is generally not airborne. So standard PPE (Personal Protective Equipment) is adequate (surgical mask, eye protection, gown, gloves) plus having the patient keep a mask on at all times. BUT it becomes airborne during aerosolizing procedures, which include collecting nasal and oral samples. (Well, not technically during the collection, but when you collect the sample the patient's mask is off and they often sneeze/cough after having the swab put in their nose/throat). At this point, airborne precautions must be taken to include N95 Respirator masks.
BUT we are on a massive shortage of all PPE nationally and worldwide...in many hospitals out west they are already bleaching and reusing N95s in between patients. Our N95s are controlled by one person in the hospital. Not ideal at all, but better than nothing at all. We are also on shortage of gowns and surgical masks. Also, in between any COVID patient the room needs to be terminally cleaned which takes time, but if an aerosolizing procedure (even test collection) the room is supposed to be given one hour to let any droplets settle onto the floor/surfaces before terminal cleaning. It is simply not practical to test most people.
The only way to really do a lot of testing is outdoors, with a tent, where you have people outfitted in the proper PPE and just leave it on as cars drive through/people walk up. But we really can't support that right now due to supply shortages.

From here, I have no idea whether or not its public
https://www.facebook.com/peter.bouckaer ... 1575297024

If you can access it the rest of the post is of interest.

Opti wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:51 pm T

headshot wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:16 pm We just drove out for a very socially distanced walk in the hills.

Then I went to fill up the car with petrol. It seemed like life was completely normal. The roads were busy and you wouldn't know anything is going on.

Frau HS and I have been socially distancing and effectively isolating at home for a week.

The question is whether anyone will actually take this seriously. They don't seem to be right now.

They are here in Spain. The message has got through. People (mostly, except for a few obvious ex-pats) have got on message. This lockdown sh.t will hit the UK soon enough. I wonder who the deniers will be? A pox on them all.

Italians are taking it pretty seriously too; too many joggers though apparently. Interesting that the moral tide has turned and people complain when they see others out and about for no good reason.

Woodchopper wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:22 pm Part of a post claimed to be from an ER doctor based in the US. Its posted on Facebook by someone who is usually reliable. Makes points about testing that I haven't seen before. Though they may well be specific to the US.

The only way to really do a lot of testing is outdoors, with a tent, where you have people outfitted in the proper PPE and just leave it on as cars drive through/people walk up. But we really can't support that right now due to supply shortages.

I understand that Trump golfclubs are in operation. Seize them for the Medical Corps, rush in tents, convert electric golf carts to carry stretchers. How many airy bedplaces can one make ready in a few days time?

If some profitseeking operator tries to get in the way: Send the Marines.

The Commander in chief may have other ideas you suspect?
Impeach him then and pack him off to Guantanamo for safekeeping.

How are people supposed to live if they are in social isolation?

How can they support local businesses if they have no money to spend?

How are local businesses supposed to survive if they cannot open their doors due to lack of income?

This government is not thinking it through are they?

purplehaze wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:55 pm How are people supposed to live if they are in social isolation?

How can they support local businesses if they have no money to spend?

How are local businesses supposed to survive if they cannot open their doors due to lack of income?

This government is not thinking it through are they?

They bailed out the banks, just need to find that money again. Maybe the banks could chip in this time?

shpalman wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:22 pm

Opti wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:51 pm T

headshot wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:16 pm We just drove out for a very socially distanced walk in the hills.

Then I went to fill up the car with petrol. It seemed like life was completely normal. The roads were busy and you wouldn't know anything is going on.

Frau HS and I have been socially distancing and effectively isolating at home for a week.

The question is whether anyone will actually take this seriously. They don't seem to be right now.

They are here in Spain. The message has got through. People (mostly, except for a few obvious ex-pats) have got on message. This lockdown sh.t will hit the UK soon enough. I wonder who the deniers will be? A pox on them all.

Italians are taking it pretty seriously too; too many joggers though apparently. Interesting that the moral tide has turned and people complain when they see others out and about for no good reason.

Yup, that pretty much sums up how it is here now. You'd better be out for a good reason, or woe betide you. Luckily we have access to the beach, and we have a small garden. Isolation is hard

mikeh wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:00 pm For what its worth, blog post from me on this evenings updates, plus the new Imperial College London modelling paper (unsure if its upthread anywhere, if not already seen then there's lot of data to unpick and its clearly informed CMO policy)

https://medium.com/@michael.g.head/uk-c ... 6e146e4be3

Thanks Mike. Seems counterintuitive that closing schools is one of the least effective measures, but I haven’t read the full paper yet.

Not sure the Government is living in the real world any more.

They're saying that if one person in any household has a persistent cough or fever, everyone living there must stay at home for 14 days, and that all of them should, if possible, avoid leaving the house "even to buy food or essentials".

Except that the country has gone so nuts that supermarket delivery slots are non existent, so how are these people going to get food and the like - especially given we've also been told not to stockpile. In large parts of the country, particularly in the South, people don't know their neighbours so it's not like you can just ask your neighbour next door to grab you some things from the supermarket.

CF

I’ve bored people many times with this over the years. But one last time - because there's a lot of "but how do we pay for it?" about.

Money is not resources. Look at everything in terms of resources, never money.

Money is an imaginary thing, created and destroyed at printing presses and with a click of a mouse in the Bank of England. The Chancellor of the Exchequer could transmit £1,000 to all of us in a couple of minutes and spend the rest of the day playing Candy Crush.

Resources are real. Resources are where the actual problems lie.

When General Eisenhower said in 1944: I want 5,000 landing craft, the problem wasn’t how much a landing craft costs. It was how the hell do you build them. Production everywhere was maxed out, every scrap of steel and every machine tool and every factory worker already building something else. So trade-offs had to be made. Someone will have decided to stop producing corvettes or something, to build landing craft instead.

In 1939 the problem was very different. There was plenty of spare capacity, it was just that everything was facing the wrong way. The machine tools were set up for making private cars, not Spitfires, people were working as housewives instead of in factories. A massive transformational shift. But the potential was there - nobody would be buying private cars, so the car factory was silent, its people waiting to be put to work.

Our resources are now like 1939. We have instantly gone from near full employment, to mass unemployment. I estimate there are now 4-5 million unemployed (many still on the payroll of companies and getting paid, but not actually having anything to do). We have gone from a sophisticated economy, with every company operating at high efficiency, to a chaotic economy with broken supply chains and misdirected production. Bad news, but this is what enables sudden transformation.

The Spitfires and landing craft equivalents in 2020 are healthcare personnel and equipment. We can devote almost unlimited resources to supporting each key worker. In 1944, for every 1 frontline fighting soldier, there were 4 logistics and support people behind the line, and countless more behind the scenes in factories. We now have so many un and underemployed we can do the same:

- An Uber driver chauffeurs a hospital planner to and from home
- A cabin crew does the planner’s supermarket shopping and cooks her evening meal
- A retail worker looks after her kids

Crucially, we will not import health resources (we cannot import ICU nurses and presumably no country will be mad enough to sell us their ventilators). We have local resources to exploit instead. So many that we can rotate people in and out if they get sick. We have unemployed people who can design, manufacture and deliver materiel to front line troops, and to build hundreds of Treatment Centres, and act as support staff.

In WW2 it took 8 months to train a fighter pilot, it is a 22 week course to train an army medic. A huge well educated country can do pretty much anything if that is its only focus.

This is not as hard a task as it looks. In 6 months there could be a bed and nurse for every patient and many multiples of current ICU beds. Governments are able to ignore money. All it needs is to list your resource priorities, list your unused resources, and start redirecting.

Cardinal Fang wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:11 pm Not sure the Government is living in the real world any more.

They're saying that if one person in any household has a persistent cough or fever, everyone living there must stay at home for 14 days, and that all of them should, if possible, avoid leaving the house "even to buy food or essentials".

Except that the country has gone so nuts that supermarket delivery slots are non existent, so how are these people going to get food and the like - especially given we've also been told not to stockpile. In large parts of the country, particularly in the South, people don't know their neighbours so it's not like you can just ask your neighbour next door to grab you some things from the supermarket.

CF

I’ve just delivered leaflets to 25 houses either side of ours on our street asking that we all try to work together to support one-another with help getting food or chatting things through.

I suggest you and others start doing the same.